PERMUTATION: A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

Permutations of elements are made, when we are interested in a sample space that
contains all possible orders or arrangements of a group of objects.

Rule 1: The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n!

n!
Rule 2: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is --------
-
(n – r)!

COMBINATIONS

The selections of n objects taken r at a time by different ways without regard to order
are called combinations.

n!
Rule: The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is ------------
-
r! (n – r)!
 PROBABILITY
Classical or Priori Approach of Probability

If a random experiment can produce n mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes
and if m out of these outcomes are considered favorable to the occurrence of a certain
event A, then the probability of the event A is defined as the ratio m/n.

n(A) Number of favorable outcomes

Symbolically we write P(A) = --------- = -----------------------------------------------
n(S) Total number of possible outcomes

Example : In the experiment of throwing a single die, what is the probability to appear
an even number of aces?

Solution: Possible outcomes are S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

The event of even number A= {2,4,6}

In this experiment 6 equally likely, mutually exclusive outcomes

occur, 3 of which are favorable to the occurrence of an even number.

Then P(even) = P(A) = m/n = 3/6 = ½ = 0.5

Example 2: A bag contains 6 red and 4 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random
from the bag. Find the probability that (i) both are white (ii) One red & One white
10
Solution: There are ten balls in a bag. Two balls can be drawn at a time
ways.
2
10 10! 10 x 9 x 8! 10 x 9
= -------------- = -------------- = -------- = 45
2 2!(10 – 2)! 2! x 8! 2

Means we can draw 2 balls at a time in 45 ways, i.e. the number of

sample points in a sample is 45.
4
(i) Two white balls out of 4 can be drawn in = 6 ways.
2

Hence P(Two white balls) = m/n = 6/45 = 2/15

6
(ii) One red ball out of 6 red can be drawn in ways
1

4
On white ball out of 4 white balls can be drawn in ways
1

6 4
One red & One white can be drawn in = 6 x 4 = 24 ways
1 1

Hence P(One red ball & One white ball) = 24/45 = 8/15
Question: A construction company builds 6 houses of 1 room, 4 houses of 2 rooms,
and 4 houses of 3 rooms. A buyer goes to the company and asks the
manager to buy 5 houses. What is the probability that he buys:

(a) 2 houses of 2 rooms and 3 houses of 3 rooms,

(b) 2 houses of 1 room, 1 house of 2 rooms and 2 houses of 3 rooms,

(c) At least 2 houses of 2 rooms,

(d) At least 1 house of 1 room?

Relative Frequency or A Posteriori Approach:

This is an empirical approach of estimating the probability of an event because this
approach is based on observational data.
If the experiment under consideration is repeated n times and an event A occurs f
times, then its probability P(A) is defined as the limit of the relative frequency f/n of
f
the occurrence of A: P(A) = lim n —› 
n
This approach defines the probability as :
• The observed relative frequency of an event in a very large number of
trials
• The proportion of times that an event occurs in the long run when
conditions are stable

This method uses the relative frequencies of past occurrences as probabilities. We

determine how some thing has happened in past & predict the probability that it will
happen again in future.

Example:- An insurance company knows from past data that of all males 50 years
old, about 60 out of every 100,000 will die within a one year period.

Using this relative frequency method the company estimates the probability of death
60
for that age group as = 0.0006
100,000

Our probability figure will gain accuracy as we increase the number of observations.

Axiomatic Approach: In this approach, the probability that an event A will occur is
a number P(A) assigned to this event. This number satisfies following axioms:

1. For every event A, P( A)  0 , which means that probability of an event can not
be negative.

2. P(S) = 1, means probability of a sure event is 1.

Thus for every event A, the probability lies between 0 and 1 i.e. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

3. If events A and B are mutually exclusive of a sample space, then

P( A  B) = P(A) + P(B)

Subjective Approach: In this approach, probabilities are interpreted as personal

feelings. In the absence of direct evidence, one considers indirect information &
guesses.

This approach is applicable to those real-world situations where neither an equally

likely nor a relative frequency analysis is possible.

For example: The market manager must decide whether or not to market a new type
of product.

This is not a repeatable experiment, therefore the relative frequency approach is not
applicable and equally likely probabilities are not assigned to this experiment.

The market manger however should be able to assign subjective probabilities based
on his knowledge of the product and his familiarity with the market structure and on
his past experience with products of the same nature.

Probability of an Event:

The probability of an event (suppose A) is sum of the probabilities of all sample

points in event A.

Then 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, P(Ø) = 0, and P(S) = 1.

 Example : A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that atleast one head occurs.

Solution: The sample space for the experiment is S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}

In the Sample Space, all the sample points have the same chance of
occurrence and are assigned equal weights, therefore we assign probability
of w to each sample point.

Then w + w + w + w = 1 or 4w = 1 or w = ¼

If A represents the event of atleast one head occurring is A = {HH, HT,

TH}
Then P(A) = ¼ + ¼ + ¼ = 3/4

Or =n(A)/n(S) = ¾

Example : A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to
occur as an odd number. If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs
in a single toss of the die, find P(E).

Solution: The sample space is S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Here we assign the weight / probability of w to each odd number and a
probability of 2w to each even number.

As the sum of probabilities of all sample points in S is 1, therefore w = 1/9

The event E = {1,2,3}

The probability w=1/9 is assigned to each odd number and the probability
of 2w=2/9 is assigned to each even number,

Therefore P(E) = 1/9 +2/9 +1/9 = 4/9

-----------------------------------------------------------

P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
The probability that an event A will not occur.

Example: If the probability is ¼ that it will rain tomorrow, then the probability
that it will not rain tomorrow is (1- ¼) = 3/4.

Additive Rule of Probability for non Mutually Exclusive events

P(A  B) = P(A)+ P(B) – P(A  B)

Additive Rule of Probability for Mutually Exclusive events

P(A  B) = P(A)+ P(B)

Conditional Probability:
The sample space for an experiment must be changed when some additional
information containing to the outcome of the experiment is received. The effect of
such information is to reduce the sample space by excluding some outcomes as being
impossible which before receiving the information were believed possible.
The probabilities associated with such a reduced sample space are called conditional
probabilities.
Definition: If A and B are two events in a sample space and if P(B) is not equal to
zero, then the conditional probability of the event A, given that B has
occurred, is defined by:
P(A  B)
P(A/B) =
P( B)
- If P(B) = 0, the conditional probability P(A/B) remains undefined.
- Similarly
P(A  B)
P(B/A) = = , where P(A) > 0
P( A)
Example: Two coins are tossed. What is the probability that two heads result,
given that there is atleast one head.
Solution: The S for the experiment of tossing two coins is S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let A is the event that two Heads appear A= {HH}
And B is the event that atleast one head appears B = {HH, HT, TH}

Given that atleast one head appears i.e. B is reduced sample space, so the
conditional probability of event A in the reduced sample space B is

Number of sample points in A  B 1

P(A/B) = ---------------------------------------------------------------- = ------
Number of sample points in Reduced sample Space B 3

P(A/B) = 1/3

Example: The probability of a regular scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) =

0.83, the probability that it arrives in time is P(A) = 0.92 and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D  A) = 0.78. Find the
probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time given that it departed on time
(b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time.

Solution:
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time given that it departed on time is
P( A  D) 0.78
P(A/D) = = = 0.94
P (D ) 0.83

(b) The probability that a plane departed on time given that it has arrived on time
P( A  D) 0.78
is P(D/A) = = = 0.85
P ( A) 0.92

Example 6.18 (Page # 215) do your self

Multiplicative Law of Probability

If A and B are two events, then

P (A  B) = P(A). P(B/A) , where P(A) > 0
P (A  B) = P(B). P(A/B) , where P(B) > 0

This multiplicative rule of probability states that the probability that both events A
and B occur is equal to the probability that A occurs multiplied by the probability that
B occurs, given that the event A has already occurred.
Example: A box contains 15 items, 4 of which are defective and 11 are good.
Two items are selected without replacement. What is the probability
that the 1st is good and the 2nd defective.
Solution:
Suppose A represents the event that the 1st item selected is good
and B represents the event that the 2nd item selected is defective

We need to calculate the probability of the joint event A  B by the rule

P (A  B) = P(A). P(B/A)
n( A) 11
P(A) = =
n( S ) 15
Given that the event has occurred, there remains 14 items in the reduced
sample space, of which 4 are defective. Therefore the probability of selecting a
defective after a good has been selected, i.e. P(B/A) = 4/14

Hence P(A  B) = P(A). P(B/A) = 11/15 x 4/14 = 44/210 = 0.21

Example : Box A contains 5 green and 7 red balls. Box B contains 3 green, 3 red and
6 yellow balls. A box is selected at random and a ball is drawn at random
from it. What is the probability that the ball drawn is green?

Solution:
Let E represents the event that the green ball is drawn. The event E can occur
in one of the following two mutually exclusive ways.
(i) Box A is selected and a green ball is drawn i.e. A  E
(ii) Box B is selected and a green ball is drawn i.e. B  E

P(green ball) = P(box A and green ball) + P(box B and green ball)
= P(box A) P(green ball/ box A) + P(box B) P(green ball/ box B)

Symbolically
P(E) = P(A  E) + P( B  E)
= P(A) P(E/A) + P(B) P(E/B)
= (½ ) (5/12) + ( ½ )(3/12)
= 1/3

Multiplicative Law of Probability for independent Events

Events A and B are said to be independent when the occurrence of one does not
influence the probability of the occurrence of the other.

Or
Two events A & B are independent if
Either P(B/A) = P(B)
Or P(A/B) = P(A)

Then we can say that P(A  B) = P(A) P(B)

Example: 10 lotteries of prizes consisting of 4 TV & 6 Refrigerators. Two lotteries

are drawn at random (a) without replacement (b) with replacement

Calculate the probability that the 1st lottery drawn consisting of prize TV
and 2nd lottery consisting of prize refrigerator in both situations i.e. (a) and
(b)
Solution: Suppose event A = the 1st lottery drawn is a TV
and event B = the 2nd lottery drawn is refrigerator
Situation (a):
P(A) = 4/10 = 2/5 P(B) = 6/10 =3/5

P(A/B) = 4/9 P(B/A) = 6/9 = 2/3

P(A/B) = P(A) P(B/A) = P(B)

Here the probability of one event is depending on the occurrence of other

event

Therefore event A and B are dependent events.

Situation (b):
P(A) = 4/10 = 2/5 P(B) = 6/10 =3/5

P(A/B) = 4/10 = 2/5 = P(A) indicating that A does not depend on B

P(B/A) = 6/10 = 3/5 = P(B) indicating that B does not depend on A

Here the probability of one event is not depending on the occurrence of other event

Therefore event A and B are independent events.

Theorem: If A and B are two independent events in a S, then

_ _ _
(i) A& B are independent i.e. P(A  B) = P(A) P(B) = P(A) [1 – P(B) ]
_ _ _
(ii) A& B are independent i.e. P(A  B) = P(A) P(B) = [1 – P(A)] P(B)
_ _ _ _ _ _
(iii) A& B are independent i.e. P(A  B) = P(A) P(B) = [1 – P(A)] [1 – P(B) ]

Example: The probability that a man will be alive in 25 years is 3/5, and the
probability that his wife will be alive in 25 years is 2/3. Find the
probability that (i) both will be alive, (ii) only the man will be alive,
(iii) only the wife will be alive (iv) atleast one will be alive,
(v) neither will be alive in 25 years.

Solution: Suppose A be the event that the man will be alive in 25 years
and B be the event that his wife will be alive in 25 years
Then
P(A) = 3/5 and P(B) = 2/3

(i) We need the probability that both will be alive, i.e. P(A  B)
Since A and B are independent, therefore
P(A  B) = P(A). P(B) = (3/5) (2/3) = 2/5
_
(ii) We need the probability that only the man will be alive, i.e. P(A  B)

Since A and B are independent, therefore

_ _
P(A  B) = P(A). P(B) = P(A) . [1 – P(B)] = (3/5) (1 – 2/3) = 1/5

_
(iii) We need the probability that only the wife will be alive, i.e. P(A  B)

Since A and B are independent, therefore

_ _
P(A  B) = P(A). P(B) = [1 – P(A)] .P(B) = (1 – 3/5)(2/3) = 4/15

(iv) We require the probability that at least one will be alive i.e. P(A U B)
Since the events are independent and not mutually exclusive, then

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

= (3/5) + (2/3) – (2/5) = 13/15
_ _
(v) We need the probability that neither will be alive, i.e. P(A  B)

Since A and B are independent, therefore

_ _ _ _
P(A  B) = P(A) P(B) = [1 – P(A)] [1 – P(B)]
= (1 – 3/5) (1 – 2/3)
= (2/5) (1/3)
= 2/15