MODULE 2: BASICS OF Engineering Data

PROBABILITY Analysis
PROBABILITY
This a branch of pure mathematics that explains the chance
for a certain phenomena will happen without biased information

COUNTING RULES

Before we start getting the probability we must first

understand how to count how many ways as we need to know the
denominator of our probability so that we will not have a hard time
on the further topics

MULTIPLICATION RULE

If one thing can be done in a specified number of ways as n1

and a second thing will be the same as n2 then they can be done
together as n1n2

Example:

How many 3 – digit numbers can be formed from digits 1,2,3

without repetition and if repeated

Solution:

# Ways – 3 per digit ; since it is not repeated

Ways = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 ways

# Ways – 3 per digit ; since it is repeated

Ways = 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 ways
PROBABILITY
If we roll a dice 3 times how many ways will it roll

Solution – 6 x 6 x 6 = 216 ways

A telephone company wants to have a 6-digit number considering

that the first number is 0 and other digit can be any number except
0 . How many numbers can they have if the digits can be repeated
and non repeated

Solution

Since 6-digit number and 1st –digit is 0 therefore

Repeated = 1 x 9 x 9 x 9 x 9 x 9 = 59049 ways

Non Repeated = 1 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 = 3024 ways

If the call letters of radio stations must begin with the letter D, the
second must be W, X, Y, or Z, while the third and fourth may be any
letter, how many different stations can there be if:
a)repetition of a letter is not allowed
b) repetitions are allowed

Solution
Repetition is not allowed = 1 x 4 x 24 x 23 = 2208 stations
Repetition is allowed = 1 x 4 x 26 x 26 = 2704 stations
PROBABILITY
PERMUTATION

Other rules in counting is to deal with the number of

arrangements of items with regard to the order of items

Formula :
Number of permutations of n objects taken at k at a time P(n,k)
Is given by
𝑛!
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑘 =
𝑛−𝑘 !

Examples:

How many number of permutations of the first 3 letters of the

alphabet are there if the letters are taken 2 at a time?

3!
P(n,k) = P(3,2) = 3−2 !
=𝟔

There are 7 children in a room, and 4 seats in a row. Children are to

be assigned in these seats

a.) How many arrangements can be devised

b.) How many arrangements can be devised if two specific children
cannot be seated alongside another

Solution
7!
a.) P(7,4) = = 840 ways
7−4 !

b.)
Assume the ways that 1 pair of students can be seated
together then they will have 6 children and 3 rows
6!
P(6,3) = 6−3 !
= 120 ways

Then since cannot be seated therefore: 840 – 120 = 720 Ways

PROBABILITY
CIRCULAR PERMUNTATIONS

there some instances that data will be ordered in a circular

manner and to solve them is about a simple trick

In how many ways can 4 people be seated in a circle?

Solution
To avoid repetition put 1 in a fixed position and the others will be
around that certain individual

3!
P(3,3) = = 𝟔 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
3−1 !

Example:
How many ways can 8 persons can be seated in a round table
considering that 2 persons are seated with each other

Solution: Now we remove the two persons since they will be seated
but using multiplication rule we get the total number of ways

6!
P(6,6) = = 720 ; ways for 2 person to seat = 2
6−6 !

#ways = 720(2) = 1440 ways

PROBABILITY
If among n objects , j items, are alike , k items are also alike, and still l
items are alike then we can have this number of permutations

𝑛!
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑛 𝑗,𝑘,𝑙 =
𝑗! 𝑘! 𝑙!

Example:
How many number of permutations of the 8 letters from the word
PARABOLA are there if the letters are taken all at a time?

Solution:
Check for repeats
A = 3 times; rest 1 time then

8!
𝑃 8,8 3 = 3! = 6720 ways

How many ways can the letters of CALCULUS can be arranged?

How many of these arrangements can begin and end with the same
letter?

Solution; Check for repeats

L = 2 times rest 1 time
U = 2 times
C = 2 times

8!
𝑃 8,8 2,2,2 = 2!2!2! = 5040 ways

Solution: for arrangements can begin and end with the same latter

C_C

𝑃 6,6 2,2 ∗ 3 → due to same situation with U_U and L_L = 540 ways
PROBABILITY
COMBINATIONS

Given a set of n distinct items , a combination is a selection

of k items from the set, where 0< k < n, such the number of such
𝑐
combinations is denote as C(n,k) or
𝑘

Denoted by the formula

𝑛!
𝐶 𝑛, 𝑘 =
𝑘! 𝑛 − 𝑘 !

NOTE THIS IS CHOOSING!!!!!

Examples:

An instructor prepared a set of 12 problems and 8 of these will

include in the examination. How many examinations will be formed?

12!
𝐶 12,8 = = 𝟒𝟗𝟓 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
4! 12−8 !

There are 20 points in a plane, no three will be collinear. How many

different line segments can be drawn in these points?

Solution:
n = 20 ; k = 2 (no three will be collinear meaning only up to 2)

20!
C(20,2) = 2! 20−2 !
= 190 ways
PROBABILITY
In how many ways can we choose 6 people including at least 2
women out of a group of 7 men and 4 women

Solution
Grouping combinations
2 women + 4 men = C(4,2) * C(7,4) = 210
3 women + 3 men = C(4,3) * C(7,3) = 140
4 women + 2 men = C(4,4) * C(7,2) = 21

Total ways = 210 + 140 + 21 = 371 Ways

A bag contains 6 red balls and 4 white balls. How many ways can
one draw if:
a.) 2 white balls
b.) 2 balls of different color?
c.) 2 balls of same color
d.) any two balls

Solution
a.) C(4,2) = 6 ways
b.) C(6,1) * C(4,1) = 24 Ways
c.) C(6,2) + C(4,2) = 21 Ways
d.) C(10,2) = 45 ways
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY

A Statistical experiment is an activity in which the

outcomes are being measured or generate data

Sample Space – enumerates all possible outcomes of an

experiment

Element – this is an outcome inside a sample space also

referred as sample point

Event – a part of a group of outcomes which do not consist

the entire sample space

TYPES OF EVENTS

JOINT - Two events , A and B are joint if they occur together,

Mutually exclusive – If either one of the events of A and B,
but not both can result from a second trial

Example:

Find the number of events in which a family will have two

children and at least be a boy

Solution

Put all possible combination

(F,F) ; (F,M) ; (M,F) ; (M,M)

Events that there will a boy are highlighted = 3 events

Sample space = 4
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

The probability of an event will be measured as the ratio of

the favorable event and the sample space

𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁𝑇
P = 𝑆𝐴𝑀𝑃𝐿𝐸 𝑆𝑃𝐴𝐶𝐸

Based on the previous question

Find the probability that the 2 of the children of a family will be at

least a boy
Favorable Event = 3
Sample Space = 4

Probability of an event = 3/4 = 0.75 or 75% chance

Find the probability that a in a group of 10 people ; a group of 4

random persons will be chosen;

Solution
Favorable Event = 1
Sample Space = C(10,4) = 210 ways

Probability of an Event = 1/210 or 0.476 % chance

In throwing a dice; Find the probability that at least 3 will be drawn

Solution
Favorable Event = (3,4,5,6) = 4 ways
Sample Space = 6 ways

Probability of an Event = 4/6 = 66.667%

 PROBABILITY
Based on a statistical data of the employees

Supervisors Foremen Laborers Total

Favor a
1 4 30 35
Union

Opposed 3 2 2 7

No
1 4 3 8
Opinion

Total 5 10 35 50

Find the probability that

a.) Favor of a Union
b.) Foremen that has no opinion
c.) Supervisor that surveyed

Solution:

a.) 35/50 = 70% chance

b.) 4/50 = 8% chance
c.) 1/50 = 2 % chance
PROBABILITY
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Additive Rules
For any two joint events A and B in which are subsets of the
sample space S, the probability of the union of the two events is

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Note:
P(A) = Probability of A
P(B) = Probability of B
P(A ∩ B ) = Probability in the intersection of events of A and B
P(A ∪ B ) = Probability in the union of events of A and B

Examples:

Fifty balls are numbered 1 to 50 placed in a box and mixed

thoroughly. If a ball is picked at random, What is the probability that

Its number is divisible by 6 or ends in 2

Solution:
P(A) = Probability divisible by 6
P(B) = Probability that ends in 2
P(A ∩ B ) = Probability that is divisible by 6 and ends in 2
P(A ∪ B) = Probability that is divisible by 6 or ends in 2

P(A) = (8/50) ; P(B) = (5/50) ; P(A ∩ B ) = (2/50)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P( A ∩ B )

P ( A ∪ B) = 8/50 + 5/50 – 2/50 = 11/50 = 22 % Chance
PROBABILITY
If a deck of cards is used, what is the probability of drawing a heart
or a king

Solution
P(A) = 13/52 Probability of Heart
P(B) = 4/52 Probability of King
P (A ∩ B) = Probability of a King of Hearts
P ( A ∪ B) = 13/52 + 4/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 = 30.769 %

Special Additive Rules

For mutually exclusive event then the addition rule is

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)

What is the probability that a die will show a 2 or 5

Solution
P(A) = 1/6 ; P(B) = 1/6
P( A ∪ B) = (1/6) + (1/6) = 2/6 = 33.33%

If four cards are drawn from an ordinary deck

a.) Find the probability they are of the same suit

P(A) = Heart ; P(B) = Spade ; P(C) = Diamonds ; P (D) = Clover

They are mutually exclusive to each other

P( A ∪ B ∪ C ∪ D) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D)

𝐶 134
P(A) = 𝐶(52,4) = 715/270725 = 0.264 % chance ; since this is common
to all
P( A ∪ B ∪ C ∪ D) = 0.264 + 0.264 + 0.264 + 0.264 = 1.056 % chance
PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
the possibility of an event or outcome happening, based on the
existence of a previous event or outcome

Or

The conditional probability of an event A given that Event B has

occurred denoted by P(A|B) assuming that P(B) = 0 then

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)

The formula can also be rearranged into this format

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 𝑥 𝑃(𝐵)

This is true considering that probabilities of A and B are independent

Example:

A box contains 1 black and 2 red balls. Two balls are drawn one after
another. What is the probability that the first ball is black and the
second ball is red?

Solution:

P(BLACK) = 1/3
P(R|B) = 2/2 (SINCE THIS IS AFTER event A occurred)

Then
1 2 1
𝑃 𝑅∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝑅 𝐵 𝑥𝑃 𝐵 →𝑃 𝑅∩𝐵 = = 3 = 33.33 % chance
3 2
 PROBABILITY
Suppose you have a deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability of drawing an Ace given that the card drawn is a spade?

Solution:
P(A ∩ B) = (1/13) = Probability of Ace of Spades
P(B) = (13/52) = probability of spades

1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 1
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = →𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = 13
13 = 13 𝑜𝑟 7.692 % chance
𝑃(𝐵)
52

Based on the data a company records for its workers

College
Job Status HS Graduate Total
Graduate

Regular 51 25 76

Casual 33 22 55

Total 84 47 131

What is the probability that a worker chosen at random has a

regular job status given that one chosen is a high school graduate

Solution
Probability that it is a HS graduate (47/131); P(B)
Probability that It is a HS graduate and regular = 25/131 ; P ( A ∩ B)

Then
25
25
P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B) = 131
47 = 47 = 53.191 % chance
131
PROBABILITY
A pair of dice is thrown. If the sum is 6, what is the probability that 2
comes up?

Solution
Probability that the sum is 6 = (5/36); P(B)
Probability that sum is 6 and 2 comes up (2/36); P(A∩B)

P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B) = 36

5 = 2/5 or 40% chance
36

BAYES LAW

If two events are mutually exclusive or occur together then the

Probability will be

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
 PROBABILITY

Example

Consider the resilience of superconductor when contaminated with

alkalis. Find the weighted average probability of failure

Level of
Probability of Failure Probability of Level
Contamination

0.1 High 0.2

0.005 Not High 0.8

Solution

By tree diagram
Fail
0.1

High
Pass
0.2
0.9

CHIP

0.005
Fail

0.8
Low

0.995 Pass

Average probability = (0.2)(0.1) + (0.8)(0.005) = 0.024 chance