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Statistical Inference INF312 - Is - Lecture 03 - Part 2

The document contains solved problems related to conditional probability and Bayes' rule, focusing on scenarios involving travel methods, disease testing, and manufacturing defects. It includes calculations for probabilities of being late, testing positive for a disease, and selecting defective rods from different machines. Each problem is broken down with step-by-step solutions and final probability results.

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16 views2 pages

Statistical Inference INF312 - Is - Lecture 03 - Part 2

The document contains solved problems related to conditional probability and Bayes' rule, focusing on scenarios involving travel methods, disease testing, and manufacturing defects. It includes calculations for probabilities of being late, testing positive for a disease, and selecting defective rods from different machines. Each problem is broken down with step-by-step solutions and final probability results.

Uploaded by

mohamed2004mowaffak
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Statistical Inference INF312

Dr. Mahmoud Mounir


Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule Solved Problems
(1) On a randomly chosen day the probability that Bill travels to school by car, by bicycle or on foot
is 1⁄2, 1⁄6 and 1⁄3 respectively. The probability of being late when using these methods of travel
is 1⁄5, 2⁄5 and 1⁄10 respectively.
a) Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day

i. Bill travels by foot and is late,


1
P(On Foot and Late) = (1/10) (1/3) = 30 = 0.0333

ii. Bill is not late.


P(Not Late) = P(Not Late and By Car) + P(Not Late and By Bicycle) + P(Not Late and
On Foot)
P(Not Late) = P(Not Late \ By Car) P(By Car) + P(Not Late \ By Bicycle) P(By Bicycle)+
P(Not Late \ On Foot) P(On Foot)
4
P(Not Late) = (4/5) (1/2) + (3/5) (1/6) + (1/3) (9/10) = 5 = 0.8

b) Given that Bill is late, find the probability that he did not travel on foot.

P(Late) = 1- P(Not Late) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2


𝑃(𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑂𝑛 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑡)𝑃(𝑂𝑛 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑡)
P(On Foot | Late) = 𝑃(𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒)
=

1 1 1
( )( ) 1
10 3 30
= = = 0.167
0.2 0.2 6

P(Not On Foot | Late) = 1 - P(On Foot | Late) =


1
= 1 – 0.167 = 6 = 0.833
Statistical Inference INF312
Dr. Mahmoud Mounir
Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule Solved Problems
(2) A disease is known to be present in 2% of a population. A test is developed to help determine
whether or not someone has the disease. Given that a person has the disease, the test is positive
with probability 0.95. Given that a person does not have the disease, the test is positive with
probability 0.03.
i. A person is selected at random from the population and tested for this disease. Find the
probability that the test is positive.

P (+Test) = P (+Test ∩ +Disease) + P (+Test ∩ -


Disease)
P (+Test) = P (+Test\ +Disease) P (+Disease) +
P (+Test\ -Disease) P (-Disease)
P (+Test) = (0.95) (0.02) + (0.03) (0.98) = 0.0484

ii. A doctor randomly selects a person from the population and tests him for the disease.
Given that the test is positive, find the probability that he does not have the disease.
𝑷 (+𝑻𝒆𝒔𝒕\ −𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆) 𝑷 (−𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆) (𝟎.𝟎𝟑) (𝟎.𝟗𝟖)
P (-Disease\ +Test) = 𝑷 (+𝑻𝒆𝒔𝒕)
= 𝟎.𝟎𝟒𝟖𝟒
= 0.607
(a) In a factory, machines A, B and C are all producing metal rods of the same length. Machine A produces
35% of the rods, machine B produces 25% and the rest are produced by machine C. Of their production
of rods, machines A, B and C produce 3%, 6% and 5% defective rods respectively.
i. Find the probability that a randomly selected rod will be defective.
P (Defective) = P (Defective ∩ A) + P (Defective
∩ B) + P (Defective ∩ C)
P (Defective) = P (Defective \ A) P(A)
+P(Defective\B)P(B)+P(Defective\ C) P(C)
P (Defective) = (0.03) (0.35) + (0.06) (0.25) +
(0.05) (0.4) = 0.0455

ii. Given that a randomly selected rod, find the probability that it is produced by machine A.
𝑷 (𝑫𝒆𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 \𝑨) 𝑷(𝑨) (𝟎.𝟎𝟑) (𝟎.𝟑𝟓)
P(A \ Defective) = 𝑷 (𝑫𝒆𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆)
= 𝟎.𝟎𝟒𝟓𝟓
= 0.231

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