01/10/2024

Practical DaTA Science

Week 2: Probability and Events

Ms. Lawrence C. Durban, LPT

Faculty

01
OBJECTIVES

Outcomes Probability and Events

Sample Space, Events, Experiments

02 Laws of Probability
Addition, Multiplication, and Complement

03 Conditional Probability
“the probability that B occurs given that A occurs”

04 Checkpoint
Activity 1

05 Application
Written Work 1

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RecalL: Probability
How may outcomes are there when you roll a die?

Answer: 6

: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

RecalL: Probability
A coin is tossed thrice. How many possible outcomes are there?

Answer: 8

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RecalL: Probability H = H, H, H
T = H, H, T
H
H = H, T, H
H T
T = H, T, T

H = T, H, H
T H
T = T, H, T
T
H = T, T, H
T = T, T, T
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RecalL: Probability
Backgammon is a game played with two dice. If you roll doubles, you get
to roll again. What is the chance that you will roll doubles?

Answer: 8

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RecalL: Probability
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Question: If you roll doubles, you get to roll again. What is the chance
that you will roll doubles?

Probability of an event
The probability of an event is a ratio that compares the number of favorable
outcomes to the number of possible outcomes.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡

P(Event)= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑛(𝐸)
In symbols, P(E) = 𝑛(𝑆) ,

where P(E) is read as “Probability of event E” or “Probability of E”

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Probability of an event
Definition of Terms

The result of an experiment such as tossing a two dice is called possible outcome or
simple event.

The set of all possible outcomes is called a sample space (denoted by S).

A set of possible outcomes satisfying a given condition (rolling doubles)is called an

Event (denoted by E).

An event is a subset of sample space.

A compound event consists of two or more simple events.

Probability of an event
Illustrative Example

Experiment: Rolling 2 dice

Possible Outcomes: (1,1), (1,2),(1,2),(1,4),…(6,6)
Sample Space: S={(1,1), (1,2),(1,2),(1,4),…(6,6)}
Event: Doubles=(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)
Compound Event: N/A
𝑛(𝐸) 6 1
P(E): P(E)= = =
𝑛(𝑆) 36 6

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Probability of an event
Remember

The probability that an event will happen is between 0 to 1 inclusive.

A probability of 0 means that an event is impossible

A probability of 1 means that the event is certain to happen.

The closer a probability is to 1, the more likely is to happen

The notation P(E) is read as “The probability of an event E” or simply the “probability
of E”

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Probability of an event
Illustrative Example 𝑛(𝐸)
P(E) = 𝑛(𝑆)

In rolling two dice, find the probability such that:

a. sum is 9
𝑛(𝐸)
P(Sum is 9) = 𝑛(𝑆)
4
P(Sum is 9) =36
1
P(Sum is 9) =9

b. at least one die shows a 4.

𝑛(𝐸)
P(shows a 4) =
𝑛(𝑆)

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P(shows a 4) =36

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Probability of an event
Checkpoint:
A playing card is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Find the
probability of drawing:

a. a heart c. a king
13 4
P(H) = P(king) =52
52
1 1
P(H) = P(king) =
4 13

b. a red card d. a black ace

26 2
P(red card) =52 P(black ace) =52
1 1
P(red card) =2 P(black ace) =26

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RecalL:Sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are best
described by a statement or rule method. For example,

S = {x | x is a city with a population over 1 million}

Set Builder Notation

which reads “S is the set of all x such that x is a city with a population over 1
million.” The vertical bar is read “such that.”

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Operations on set is also used in Probability of Events. Most common used
operations:

The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A∪B, is the event
containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Operations on set is also used in Probability of Events. Most common used
operations:

The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B, is the

event containing all elements that are common to A and B.

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ, that is, if A

and B have no elements in common.
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RecalL: Operations on SET

Operations on set is also used in Probability of Events. Most common used
operations:

The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements

of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol A’.

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Illustrative Example
Consider the venn diagram below:

a. List the element on each event. d. A ∩ B ∩ C

b. Find A∪B e. (A ∪ B) ∩ C’
c. B’ ∩ A

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Checkpoint
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}, C
= {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list the elements of the sets corresponding to
the following events:

(a) A ∪ C;
(b) (A ∩ B);
(c) C’ ;
(d) (C’ ∩ D) ∪ B;
(e) (S ∩ C)’
(f) (f) A ∩ C ∩ D

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Checkpoint
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list the elements of the sets corresponding
to the following events:

(a) A ∪ C;
sol’n:
A = {0,2,4,5,6,8} C = {2,4,5} A ∪ C = {0,2,4,5,6,8}

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Checkpoint
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list the elements of the sets corresponding
to the following events:

(a) A ∩ B;
sol’n:
A = {0,2,4,5,6,8} B = {1,3,5,7,9} A ∩ B = {5}

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Checkpoint
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list the elements of the sets corresponding
to the following events:

(a) C’;
sol’n:
C = {2,3,4,5} S = {0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}

A ∩ B = {0,1,6,7,8,9}

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RecalL: Operations on SET

Checkpoint
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list the elements of the sets corresponding
to the following events:

(a) (C’ ∩ D) ∪ B;
sol’n:
C = {2,3,4,5} S = {0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}

A ∩ B = {0,1,6,7,8,9}

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Laws of Probability: ADDITIVE…

Probability deals with the occurrence of a random event. 1st Law of probability
is:
Additive Rule of Probability
If A and B are two events then,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

For three events A, B, and C,

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

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Laws of Probability: ADDITIVE…

Illustrative Example
John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a
university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two companies
he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer from company A is
0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B is 0.6. If he believes
that the probability that he will get offers from both companies is 0.5, what is
the probability that he will get at least one offer from these two companies?

soln. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

=0.8+0.6−0.5
=0.9

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Laws of Probability: ADDITIVE…

Illustrative Example

What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair dice is

tossed?
B) =
P(A ∪ B) = P(A)
P(A) +
+ P(B)
P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
P(7)
P(7) ==1/6
6/36 P(11) =
2/36
P(11) = 1/18 P(7 ∩ 11) = N/A

Mutually Exclusive

soln. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

=1/6+1/18
=2/9

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Laws of Probability: ADDITIVE…

Illustrative Example

If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a person
purchasing a new automobile will choose green, white, red, or blue, what is the
probability that a given buyer will purchase a new automobile that comes in one
of those colors?

If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or

more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his next
day at work?

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Laws of Probability: ADDITIVE…

Illustrative Example
Suppose the manufacturer’s specifications for the length of a certain type of computer
cable are 2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this industry, it is known that small cable is just as
likely to be defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable. That is, the probability of
randomly producing a cable with length exceeding 2010 millimeters is equal to the
probability of producing a cable with length smaller than 1990 millimeters. The
probability that the production procedure meets specifications is known to be 0.99

(a) What is the probability that a cable selected randomly is too large?
(b) What is the probability that a randomly selected cable is larger than 1990
millimeters?

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Laws of Probability: Condition…

Probability deals with the occurrence of a random event.

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B|A), is defined b

P(A ∩ B)
P(B|A) = , provided P(A) > 0.
P(A)

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Laws of Probability: Condition…

Illustrative Example
Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who have
completed the requirements for a college degree. We shall categorize them according to
gender and employment status. The data are given:

One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the

country to publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in the town. We
shall be concerned with the following events:
M: a man is chosen,
E: the one chosen is employed.

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Laws of Probability: Condition…

Illustrative Example
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D)=0.83; the
probability that it arrives on time is P(A)=0.82; and the probability that it departs and
arrives on time is P(D ∩ A)=0.78. Find the probability that a plane

(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time,

(b) (b) departed on time, giventhat it has arrived on time

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Laws of Probability: Condition…

Illustrative Example
Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular type of
cloth are being produced. These strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of
texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very complicated. It is
known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test,
5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from
the process and a quick measurement identifies it as failing the length test, what is the
probability that it is texture defective?

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Thank you!
Got any question/s?

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