Probability of an Event electrical, and 8 civil engineering

• The probability of an event is a students. If a person is randomly

number between 0 and 1 that selected by the instructor to answer a
measures the likelihood that the event question, find the probability that the
will occur. • It is defined as, student chosen is (a) an industrial
engineering major and (b) a civil
engineering or an electrical engineering
major.
Ans.

P(CE ∪ EE) = 18/53

P(IE) = 25/53

Example 1. Example 6.
If you roll a die, what is the probability of In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards,
rolling an even number? find the probability of holding 2 aces and
Ans. 0.5 3 jacks.
Ans.
Example 2. 24 −5
=0.9 x 10
A coin is tossed twice. What is the 2,598,960
probability that at least 1 head occurs?
Ans. Additive Rules
S = {HH, HT, T H, T T} A = {HH, HT, T Theorem:
H} P(A) = 1⁄4 + 1⁄4 + 1⁄4 = 3⁄4 If A and B are two events,

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) −

then
Example 3.
A die is loaded in such a way that an P(A ∩ B)
even number is twice as likely to occur If A and B are mutually

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

as an odd number. If E is the event that exclusive, then
a number less than 4 occurs on a single
toss of the die, find P(E).

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) −

Ans. For three events A, B, and C,
Probability of odd number = 1/9
Probability of even number = 2/9 P(E) = P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩
4/9 B ∩ C).

Example 4. Example 1
In example 3, let A be the event that an John is going to graduate from an
even number turns up and let B be the industrial engineering department in a

occurs. Find P(A ∪ B) and P(A ∩ B).

event that a number divisible by 3 university by the end of the semester.
After being interviewed at two

P(A ∪ B) = 7/9 P(A ∩ B) = 2/9

Ans. companies he likes, he assesses that
his probability of getting an offer from
company A is 0.8, and his probability of
Example 5. getting an offer from company B is 0.6. If
A statistics class for engineers consists he believes that the probability that he
of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10 will get offers from both companies is
0.5, what is the probability that he will randomly producing a cable with length
get at least one offer from these two exceeding 2010 millimeters is equal to
companies? the probability of producing a cable with
Ans. P(A∪B) = 0.9 length smaller than 1990 millimeters.
The probability that the production
Example 2 procedure meets specifications is known
What is the probability of getting a total to be 0.99.
of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair dice is (a) What is the probability that a cable
tossed? selected randomly is too large?
Ans. (b) What is the probability that a
P(A∪B) = 1/6 + 1/18 = 2/9 randomly selected cable is larger than
1990 millimeters?
Example 3 Ans. (a) 0.005 (b) 0.995
If the probabilities are, respectively,
0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a person Conditional Probability
purchasing a new automobile will
choose the color green, white, red, or • The probability of an event B occurring
blue, what is the probability that a given when it is known that some event A has
buyer will purchase a new automobile occurred is called a conditional
that comes in one of those colors? probability and is denoted by P(B|A).

P(G ∪ W ∪ R ∪ B) = 0.68
Ans. • The symbol P(B|A) is usually read “the
probability that B occurs given that A
occurs” or simply “the probability of B,
Theorem: given A.”
If A and A’ are complementary events,
then
P(A) + P(A’) = 1.

Example 4
If the probabilities that an automobile Example 1
mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 Consider the event B of getting a perfect
or more cars on any given workday are, square when a die is tossed. The die is
respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, constructed so that the even numbers
0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability are twice as likely to occur as the odd
that he will service at least 5 cars on his numbers. Suppose that it is known that
next day at work? the toss of the die resulted in a number
Ans. 0.69 greater than 3. find the probability that B
occurs, relative to the space A.
Example 5 Ans. P(B|A) = 2/5
Suppose the manufacturer’s
specifications for the length of a certain Example 2
type of computer cable are 2000 ± 10 The probability that a regularly
millimeters. In this industry, it is known scheduled flight departs on time is P(D)
that small cable is just as likely to be = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on
defective (not meeting specifications) as time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability
large cable. That is, the probability of that it departs and arrives on time is P(D
∩ A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is
plane (a) arrives on time, given that it drawn from the first bag and placed
departed on time, and (b) departed on unseen in the second bag. What is the
time, given that it has arrived on time. probability that a ball now drawn from
Ans. (a) P(A|D) = 0.94 (b) P(D|A) = 0.95 the second bag is black?

Independent Events Ans.

P[(B1 ∩ B2) or (W1 ∩ B2)] = P(B1 ∩ B2)
Two events A and B are independent if + P(W1 ∩ B2) = 38/63
and only if P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A|B) =
P(A), Theorem:
assuming the existences of the Two events A and B are independent if
conditional probabilities. Otherwise, A and only if
and B are dependent. P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B).
Therefore, to obtain the probability that
Example 3: two independent events will both
Consider an experiment in which 2 occur, we simply find the product of their
cards are drawn in succession from an individual probabilities
ordinary deck, with replacement. The
events are defined as Example 6:
A: the first card is an ace, A small town has one fire engine and
B: the second card is a spade. Ans. P(B| one ambulance available for
A) = P(B) = ¼ emergencies. The probability that the
fire engine is available when needed is
The Product Rule, or the 0.98, and the probability that the
Multiplicative Rule ambulance is available when called is
0.92. In the event of an injury resulting
Theorem: from a burning building, find the
If in an experiment the events A and B probability that both the ambulance and
can both occur, then the fire engine will be available,
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A), provided P(A) > assuming they operate independently.
0 Ans. P(A ∩ B) = 0.9016

Example 4: Example 7
Suppose that we have a fuse box An electrical system consists of four
containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are components as illustrated in Figure
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at shown. The system works if components
random and removed from the box in A and B work and either of the
succession without replacing the first, components C or D works. The reliability
what is the probability that both fuses (probability of working) of each
are defective? component is also shown in Figure. Find
Ans. P(A ∩ B) = 1/19 the probability that (a) the entire system
works and (b) the component C does
Example 5: not work, given that the entire system
One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 works. Assume that the four
black balls, and a second bag contains 3 components work independently.
 experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the
Ans. (a) 0.7776 products made by each machine,
(b) 1/6 respectively, are defective. Now,
suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected. What is the
probability that it is defective?
Ans.
P(A) = 0.006 + 0.0135 + 0.005 = 0.0245

Example:
Three cards are drawn in succession,
without replacement, from an ordinary
deck of playing cards. Find the
probability that the event A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3
occurs, where A1 is the event that the Example 2:
first card is a red ace, A2 is the event With reference to previous example, if a
that the second card is a 10 or a jack, product was chosen randomly and found
and A3 is the event that the third card is to be defective, what is the probability
greater than 3 but less than 7. that it was made by machine B3?
Ans. Ans. P(B3|A) = 10/49
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3) = 8/5525
Example 3
A manufacturing firm employs three
Not included in Midterm analytical plans for the design and
development of a particular product. For
Bayes Rule cost reasons, all three are used at
Bayesian statistics is a collection of varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2, and 3
tools that is used in a special form of are used for 30%, 20%, and 50% of the
statistical inference which applies in the products, respectively. The defect rate is
analysis of experimental data in many different for the three procedures as
practical follows:
situations in P(D|P1) = 0.01,
science and P(D|P2) = 0.03,
engineering. P(D|P3) = 0.02,
where P(D|Pj) is the probability of a
Theorem: defective product, given plan j. If a
random product was observed and
found to be defective, which plan was
most likely used and thus responsible?
Ans. P(P1|D) = 0.158
Example: P(P2|D)= 0.316
In a certain assembly plant, three P(P3|D) = 0.526
machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%,
45%, and 25%, respectively, of the
products. It is known from past