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output_7
A crash course
Itô processes are adapted stochastic process that may be decomposed as the sum of an
integral with respect to Brownian motion and an integral with respect to time.
Z t Z t
Xt = X0 + σs dWs + µs ds;
0 0
Z t
(σs2 + |µs |) ds < ∞ (t > 0).
0
Z t Z t Z t
H dX = Hs σs dWs + Hs µs ds.
0 0 0
SDEs
Typically an SDE is of the form
This characterises the behaviour of the continuous time stochastic process X as the
sum of a Lebesgue integral and an Itô integral.
Another interpretation of SDE is that in a small time interval of length δ the process X
changes its value by an amount that is normally distributed with expectation µ(Xt , t)δ and
variance σ(Xt , t)2 δ and is independent of the past behaviour (Markov property!). This is so
because the increments of a Brownian motion are independent and normally distributed.
The function µ is referred to as the drift coefficient, while σ is the diffusion coefficient.
Ito’s lemma
Theorem (Ito’s lemma)
For any twice continuously differentiable function f : R2 → R and an Itô process X ,
f (X ) is itself an Itô process satisfying
1
df (Xt ) = f ′ (Xt ) dXt + f ′′ (Xt )σt2 dt.
2
It follows that
σ2
log(St ) = log(S0 ) + σBt + µ − 2 t,
σ2
St = S0 exp σBt + µ − 2 t .
The Black–Scholes model.
No Dividends: the underlying security does not pay any dividends during its life.
Efficient Market: The market is assumed to be liquid has price continuity and all
the players have equal access to all information available.
No commission or transaction cost: The model assumes that there is no
transaction cost involved in buying/selling the asset.
Constant Volatility: Volatility can be constant relatively in the short run but it can
never be constant in the long run.
As the options are considered European, they can only be exercised at their
expiration.
The risk-free rate of investment and underlying volatility is assumed to be constant.
The returns are distributed evenly throughout the period of the option.
Black–Scholes
Inputs
Spot Price: The market price of the asset as on the day of valuation is the spot
price. This price is difficult to estimate however for the simplicity of use, the
closing market price is used.
Strike price: This is the price at which the option holder has the right to buy or
sell the underlying security. It is not difficult to get this input as it is mentioned in
the option contract.
Time to maturity: The time (years) till the option expires and after which the
option holder do not have any right to exercise it.
Risk-free interest rates: This rate is normally the risk-free rate of the zero coupon
government bond.
Volatility: It is one of the most important inputs in the option pricing model.
There are several ways to estimate volatility. The most common method to
estimate volatility is to collect data from the previous term of the security.
Theorem (Cameron–Martin–Girsanov)
Suppose that X = (Xt )t∈[0,T ] is an (Ft )-predictable process on (Ω, F, P) such that
Z T
E[exp( 12 Xt2 )] < ∞.
0
3 The process Z t
W̃t = Wt + Xs ds
0
is a Brownian motion with respect to Q and (Ft ).
The Black–Scholes model
Framework
with S0 > 0.
As such
σ2
St = S0 exp (µ − )t + σWt .
2
(St is geometric Brownian motion with drift µ = σ 2 /2 and volatility σ.
Black–Scholes
θ2 σ2
where we used that E[e θZ ] = e θµ+ 2 , whenever Z ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ).
Hence S ∗ is a martingale under P if and only if µ = r .
Does there exist a probability measure Q under which S ∗ is a martingale?
Black–Scholes
µ−r
Then the process W̃t = σ t + Wt is a Brownian motion under Q.
Moreover, S∗ is a martingale under Q.
where π is a partition of [0, t] should the limit exist in the sense of convergence in
probability.
More generally, the covariance of two processes is defined as
n
X
[X , Y ]t = lim Xtk − Xtk−1 Ytk − Ytk−1
∥π∥→0
k=1
We have
[X , Y ]t = 21 ([X + Y ]t − [X ]t − [Y ]t )
(if all variations exist; think of the covariance as an inner product).
Girsanov’s theorem (toy version)
W̃t = Wt − [W , X ]t
Observe that
h i
W̃ = [Wt , Wt ] − 2 [Wt , [W , X ]t ] + [[W , X ]t , [W , X ]t ] = [W ]t = t.
t
Quadratic variation – problems
Show that for each t, [·, ·]t is an inner product on the space X2t of processes
X = (Xs ) such that E|Xs |2 < ∞ for all s ⩽ t. Use bilinearity of inner products to
justify the calculation under statement of the toy version of Girsanov’s theorem.
Find the covariance function f (r , s) = [W , W ]t of the standard Brownian motion
W.
Try to find in the literature a relevant theorem for Gaussian processes and their
determination by their their covariance functions.
Stochastic processes: recap
A (real-valued) stochastic process X indexed by [0, T ] is a family of random variables
X = {Xt }t∈[0,T ] defined on the same probability space (Ω, F, P).
X : [0, T ] × Ω → R
X(ω) : [0, T ] → R
which maps t to Xt (ω), and is called a trajectory or a sample path of the process.
Hence, we can look at X as a mapping
X : Ω → R[0,T ]
which maps ω to X(ω) , where R[0,T ] is the Cartesian product of [0, T ] copies of R
which is the set of all functions from [0, T ] to R. That is, we can see X as a
mapping from Ω to a space of functions.
The Black–Scholes model – pricing formulae — proof
The Black–Scholes model – pricing formulae — proof
The Black–Scholes model – pricing formulae — proof
Greeks from the B–S model
Let us close the topic CRR vs BS for good: recap on characteristic functions
un = e an (1 + rn )
dn = e −an (1 + rn );
they are separated by 1 for large enough n.
Convergence CRR → BS
The risk-neutral measure parameter in the nth model is
1 + rn − dn 1 − e −an an − 12 an2 + o(an2 ) 1
qn = = an = = 2 − 14 an + o(an ).
un − dn e − e −an 2an + 13 an3 + o(an3 )
Convergence CRR → BS
The risk-neutral measure parameter in the nth model is
1 + rn − dn 1 − e −an an − 12 an2 + o(an2 ) 1
qn = = an = = 2 − 14 an + o(an ).
un − dn e − e −an 2an + 13 an3 + o(an3 )
Let (Xn (j))nj=1 be the Bernoulli variables driving the nth CRR model:
Pj Pj
k=1 Xn (k) j− k=1 Xn (k)
Sn (j) = S(0)un dn
Convergence CRR → BS
The risk-neutral measure parameter in the nth model is
1 + rn − dn 1 − e −an an − 12 an2 + o(an2 ) 1
qn = = an = = 2 − 14 an + o(an ).
un − dn e − e −an 2an + 13 an3 + o(an3 )
Let (Xn (j))nj=1 be the Bernoulli variables driving the nth CRR model:
Pj Pj
k=1 Xn (k) j− k=1 Xn (k)
Sn (j) = S(0)un dn
un dn
EQn [Yn (j)] = qn log( 1+r n
) + (1 − qn ) log 1+r n
= ( 12 − 14 an + o(an ))an + ( 12 + 41 an + o(an ))(−an )
= − 21 an2 + o(an2 )
2
EQn [Yn (j)] = an2 + o(an2 ),
m
EQn [|Yn (j)| ] = o(an2 ).
Convergence CRR → BS
2
Let Y ∼ N(− σT 2, σ 2 T ). Then
σ2T 2
2σ T
ϕY (θ) = exp −iθ −θ .
2 2
Convergence CRR → BS
2
Let Y ∼ N(− σT 2, σ 2 T ). Then
σ2T 2
2σ T
ϕY (θ) = exp −iθ −θ .
2 2
σ2T 2
2σ T
ϕY (θ) = exp −iθ −θ .
2 2
Therefore, +
−rT
lim P n (0) = lim EQ Ke − S(0)e Yn
n→∞ P n→∞
z2 +
+∞
e− 2 √
Z 2
−rT σ T
= √ Ke − S(0) exp − + σ Tz dz = PP (0),
−∞ 2π 2
2 2 √
where we have used that Y ∼ N − σ 2T , σ 2 T if Y = − σ 2T + σ T Z with Z ∼ N (0, 1).
Convergence CRR → BS
One can directly check that
lim PC′ (0) = PC (0) = S(0)Φ(d1 (S(0), T )) − Ke −rT Φ(d2 (S(0), T )),
n→∞
where
Pc′ (0) = (1 + rn )−n EQ (S(n) − K )+ .
Convergence CRR → BS
One can directly check that
lim PC′ (0) = PC (0) = S(0)Φ(d1 (S(0), T )) − Ke −rT Φ(d2 (S(0), T )),
n→∞
where
Pc′ (0) = (1 + rn )−n EQ (S(n) − K )+ .
One can modify the previous arguments to provide formulae for Pc (t) and Pp (t).
Convergence CRR → BS
Theorem
Let g ∈ Cb (R) and let X = g (S(T )) be a contingent claim in the Black–Scholes
model. Then the price process of X is given by
where PXn (t), n ⩾ 1 are the price processes of X in the corresponding CRR models.
Convergence CRR → BS
Theorem
Let g ∈ Cb (R) and let X = g (S(T )) be a contingent claim in the Black–Scholes
model. Then the price process of X is given by
where PXn (t), n ⩾ 1 are the price processes of X in the corresponding CRR models.
There are similar proofs of the previous results using the normal approximation to
the binomial law, based on the CLT.
However, note that here we have a triangular array of random variables
{Yn (j)}nj=1,...,n ⩾ 1. Hence, standard version of the CLT is not applicable here.
Moreover, the asymptotic distribution of Yn need not be Gaussian if we choose
−rT
suitably the parameters of the CRR model: if we set un = u and dn = e n , c < r
we have that Yn converges in law to a Poisson random variable.
This lead to consider the exponential of more general Lévy process as underlying
price process for the stock.
American options