Project Work

On
Probability

Submitted by: Abhaya Shrestha

Class: 12 A
S. No.40
Acknowledgement
It gives me immense pleasure to present this
project work on Probability. This project explores
on the various aspects of probability. I would like to
extend my gratitude to my respected teacher
Bobby Pradhan ma’am for giving out the
opportunity to explore on the topic and helping out
for the preparation of this project work. I got to
learn about many new things about the topic
during the preparation of this project. I would also
like to thank all others who helped me in bringing
out this project.

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Abstract
We deal with different types of events whose outcomes are not
pre-known. There are uncertainties in such events. For
example, road accidents are probable but not certain. Similarly,
on tossing a coin it is not well known if we will get head or tail.
Similarly, birth and death are the uncertain life phenomena;
mutation in open environmental conditions is uncertain; the
price of share in open market is uncertain. In case of such
uncertainty the knowledge of probability is very helpful in
making mathematical decisions or for making most probable
speculations. So this project is going to deal with the study of
probability and its distributions including its applications for
the calculation of possibilities of some desired outcomes of a
non-deterministic event.

Objectives
The main objective of this project is to do a detail study on
the various aspects of theory of probability. This project
deals with the history of probability and probability
distributions in brief along with the detail study of
binomial probability distribution and its applications.

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Table of Contents
Contents……………………………………………………………… Page no.
1. Introduction to Probability Distribution ……………………………. 4
2. Probability and its Example …………………………………………………… 4
3. Types of Probability ………………………………………………………………… 4
4. History of Probability ……………………………………………………………… 5
5. Probability Distributions ………………………………………………………… 7
6. Types of Probability Distributions ……………………………………….. 7
7. Example of a Probability Distribution …………………………………. 7
8. Binomial Distribution ……………………………………………………………… 8
9. Basic Assumptions that Binomial distribution is based …… 8
10. Probability function of the Binomial distribution …………….. 8
11. Mean and Standard deviation of Binomial distribution …… 9
12. Characteristics of Binomial distribution …………………………….. 9
13. Applications ( Examples ) of Binomial Probability
distributions ……………………………………………………………………………… 10

Conclusions ………………………………………………………………………………. 13
References …………………………………………………………………………………. 14

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Introduction to Probability Theory
Probability theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of
random phenomena. The outcome of a random event cannot be determined
before it occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual
outcome is considered to be determined by chance. The fundamental ingredient
of probability theory is an experiment that can be repeated, at least
hypothetically, under essentially identical conditions and that may lead to
different outcomes on different trials.

Probability and its Example

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how
likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The
probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0
indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the
probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple
example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two
outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads"
equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the
probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written as 0.5 or
50%).

Types of Probability
There are three major types of probabilities:

1. Theoretical Probability
2. Experimental Probability
3. Axiomatic Probability

Theoretical Probability
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical
probability is mainly based on the reasoning behind probability. For
example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical probability of getting a head will
be ½.

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Experimental Probability
It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment.
The experimental probability can be calculated based on the number of
possible outcomes by the total number of trials. For example, if a coin is
tossed 10 times and heads is recorded 6 times then, the experimental
probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.

Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all
types. These axioms are set by Kolmogorov and are known
as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic approach to
probability, the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can
be quantified.

History of Probability
"A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of
probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre
de Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, a French nobleman with
an interest in gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an
apparent contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted
in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not
to bet even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the
24 throws. A seemingly well-established gambling rule led de Méré to
believe that betting on a double six in 24 throws would be profitable, but his
own calculations indicated just the opposite.

This problem and others posed by de Méré led to an exchange of letters

between Pascal and Fermat in which the fundamental principles of
probability theory were formulated for the first time. Although a few special
problems on games of chance had been solved by some Italian
mathematicians in the 15th and 16th centuries, no general theory was
developed before this famous correspondence.

The Dutch scientist Christian Huygens, a teacher of Leibniz, learned of this

correspondence and shortly thereafter (in 1657) published the first book on

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probability; entitled De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae, it was a treatise on
problems associated with gambling. Because of the inherent appeal of games
of chance, probability theory soon became popular, and the subject developed
rapidly during the 18th century. The major contributors during this period
were Jakob Bernoulli (1654-1705) and Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754).

In 1812 Pierre de Laplace (1749-1827) introduced a host of new ideas and

mathematical techniques in his book, Théorie Analytique des Probabilités.
Before Laplace, probability theory was solely concerned with developing a
mathematical analysis of games of chance. Laplace applied probabilistic
ideas to many scientific and practical problems. The theory of errors,
actuarial mathematics, and statistical mechanics are examples of some of the
important applications of probability theory developed in the l9th century.

Like so many other branches of mathematics, the development of probability

theory has been stimulated by the variety of its applications. Conversely, each
advance in the theory has enlarged the scope of its influence. Mathematical
statistics is one important branch of applied probability; other applications
occur in such widely different fields as genetics, psychology, economics, and
engineering. Many workers have contributed to the theory since Laplace's
time; among the most important are Chebyshev, Markov, von Mises, and
Kolmogorov.

One of the difficulties in developing a mathematical theory of probability has

been to arrive at a definition of probability that is precise enough for use in
mathematics, yet comprehensive enough to be applicable to a wide range of
phenomena. The search for a widely acceptable definition took nearly three
centuries and was marked by much controversy. The matter was finally
resolved in the 20th century by treating probability theory on an axiomatic
basis. In 1933 a monograph by a Russian mathematician A. Kolmogorov
outlined an axiomatic approach that forms the basis for the modern theory.
(Kolmogorov's monograph is available in English translation as Foundations
of Probability Theory, Chelsea, New York, 1950.) Since then the ideas have
been refined somewhat and probability theory is now part of a more general
discipline known as measure theory."

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Probability Distributions
A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all the
possible values and likelihoods that a random variable can take within a
given range. This range will be bounded between the minimum and
maximum possible values, but precisely where the possible value is likely to
be plotted on the probability distribution depends on a number of factors.
These factors include the distribution's mean (average), standard
deviation, skewness, and kurtosis.

Types of Probability Distributions

There are many different classifications of probability distributions. Some of
them include the normal distribution, chi square distribution, binomial
distribution, and Poisson distribution. The different probability distributions
serve different purposes and represent different data generation processes .

Example of a Probability Distribution

As a simple example of a probability distribution, let us look at the number
observed when rolling two standard six-sided dice. Each die has a 1/6
probability of rolling any single number, one through six, but the sum of two
dice will form the probability distribution depicted in the image below.
Seven is the most common outcome (1+6, 6+1, 5+2, 2+5, 3+4, and 4+3). Two
and twelve, on the other hand, are far less likely (1+1 and 6+6).

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Binomial Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution is the discrete
probability distribution that gives only two possible results in an
experiment, either Success or Failure. For example, if we toss a coin, there
could be only two possible outcomes: heads or tails, and if any test is taken,
then there could be only two results: pass or fail. This distribution is also
called a binomial probability distribution.

Basic Assumptions that Binomial distribution

is based
1. Random experiment should be performed for the fixed number of
times.
2. The experiment should have only two mutually exclusive outcomes
‘success’ and ‘failure’.
3. All the experiment performed should be independent of one
another.
4. The probability of success should be constant for every experiment.

Probability function of the Binomial

distribution
If the probability of a success in one trial is known, the probabilities of
success of one, two, three, ..….… n trials can be known.
Let n= no. of trials performed
p= probability of a success in a trial
q= probability of a failure in a trial
such that p + q = 1
r = no. of successes in n trials
Then,

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 P(r) = P(x=r) = Probability of r successes in n trials
= nCr pr qn-r
= C(n, r) pr qn-r
This is known as the probability mass function for the random variable X; n
and p (or q) being the two parameters.

Mean and Standard deviation of Binomial

distribution
If n = no. of trials
p = probability of a success in a trial
q = 1 – p = probability of a failure, then
Mean of the binomial distribution = np
Variance of the binomial distribution = σ 2 = npq
Standard deviation (σ) = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Where the two constants n and p (or q) are known as the
parameters.

Characteristics of Binomial distribution

1. Since in a binomial distribution, the random variable X assumes
only the integral values 0, 1, 2, 3, …… so the distribution is the
discrete probability distribution.
2. Knowing the two parameters n and p, binomial distribution can
completely be determined.
3. The variance of the binomial distribution is less than the mean
i.e. npq < np as p < 1 and q < 1.
4. If p = q = ½, the binomial distribution is symmetrical.

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 5. If p < ½, the binomial distribution is positively skewed and if
p > ½, it is negatively skewed.

Applications (Examples) of Binomial

distribution
1. A coin is tossed 8 times. Getting a head is a success. Find the
probability of getting (i) two heads (ii) no heads (iii) at most 2
heads.

r n-r

= P(0) + P(1) + P(2)

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 = C(8, 0) + C(8, 1) + C(8, 2)
=
2. In a vacancy of 30 seats of accountants, 20 candidates with BBA
and rest BBS have applied. If 8 candidates are selected, find the
probability that (a) 4 of them are BBA holders (b) 5 of them are
BBS holders.

r n-r

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3. Out of 40 students in a class, 8 are girls. If 5 students are
selected, find the probability that i) one student is a boy ii) 3 are
boys and 2 girls iii) at least one student is a boy

r n-r

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4. If 3 dice are thrown simultaneously, what is the probability of
getting i) no five ii) two fives iii) three fives.
Solution:
n = no. of dice = 3
p= probability of getting five (success) =
q= 1 – p = 1 − =
Using binomial distribution,
P(X=r) = C(n, r) pr qn-r
= C(3, r)
i) P(no five) = P(r=0)
= C(3, 0)
=
ii) P(two fives) = P(r=2)
= C(3, 2)
=
iii) P(three fives) = P(r=3)
= C(3, 3)
=
Conclusions
Thus, from this project it can be concluded that the probability that is a
mathematical concept for the calculation of possibilities of some desired
outcomes of a non-deterministic event was originated due to a gambler’s
dispute in 1654 in a Paris Casino. Probability distributions are a common way
to describe, and possibly predict, the probability of an event. Among the
various types of probability distributions, one is binomial distribution which is
based on two types of outcomes (i.e. success and failure).

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References

1. https://www.britannica.com/science/probability-
theory
2. https://byjus.com/maths/probability/
3. http://homepages.wmich.edu/~mackey/Teaching/145/
probHist.html
4. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/probabilitydis
tribution.asp

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