MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

CHAPTER 5
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.1 Random Variables

5.2 Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable
5.3 The Binomial Probability Distribution
5.4 The Hypergeometric Distribution
5.5 The Poisson Probability Distribution

Last week, we discussed the concepts and rules of probability in Note 4. We now extend
the concept of probability to explain probability distributions. Any given statistical
experiment has more than one outcome and thus it is impossible to predict with certainty
which of the many possible outcomes will occur if an experiment is performed.
Consequently, decisions are made under uncertain conditions.

Many decisions in business, insurance, and other real-life situations are made by
assigning probabilities to all possible outcomes pertaining to the situation and then
evaluating the results. For example, a salesman can compute the probability that he will
make 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more sales in a single day. Once these probabilities are assigned,
statistics such as the mean, variance, and standard deviation can be computed for these
events. With these statistics, various decisions can be made. For instance, the salesman
will be able to compute the average number of sales he makes per week, and if he is
working on commission, he will be able to approximate his monthly income.

You will learn about:

§ random variables and types of random variables,
§ the concept of a probability distribution, its mean and standard deviation for a discrete
random variable, and
§ three special probability distributions for a discrete random variable (binomial,
hypergeometric, and Poisson probability distributions).

1
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.1 Random Variables

Random Variable
A variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a random experiment.

Discrete Random Variable

A random variable that assumes countable values.
Example:
• The
• The
• The

Continuous Random Variable

A random variable that assumes any value contained in one or more intervals.
Example:
• The
• The
• The
• The

Characteristics of a Probability Distribution

• 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1 for each value of x
• ∑P(x) = 1

2
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.2 Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable

Probability distribution of a discrete random variable lists all the possible values that the
random variable can assume and their corresponding probabilities.

The ordered pairs (x, P(x)) where P(x) = P(X = x) is called the probability distribution of the
discrete random variable X.

Exercise 5.1
The following table lists the probability distribution of the number of breakdowns per week
for a machine based on past data.

Breakdowns per week 0 1 2 3

Probability 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.30

a) Present this probability distribution graphically.

b) Find the probability that for a given week, the number of breakdowns for the machine is
(i) exactly 2, (ii) 0 to 2, (iii) more than 1, (iv) at most 1.

Solution:

3
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Exercise 5.2
According to a survey, 60% of all students at a large university suffer from math anxiety. Two
students are randomly selected from this university. Let x denotes the number of students in
this sample who suffer from math anxiety. Develop the probability distribution of x.

Solution:

4
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Mean
The mean of a discrete random variable x is the value that is expected to occur per repetition,
on average, if an experiment is repeated many times. It is denoted by !:
! = # x P(x).

The mean of a discrete random variable x is also called its expected value and is denoted by
E(x):
E(x) = # x P(x).

Exercise 5.3
Find the mean number of breakdowns per week for this machine in Exercise 5.1.
Breakdowns per week 0 1 2 3
Probability 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.30

Solution:

x P(x) x P(x)
0
1
2
3

5
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Standard deviation
The standard deviation of a discrete random variable x measures the spread of its probability
distribution and is computed as
2
& = 'E(x2 ) − (E(x)) = '# x2 P(x) − ! 2 .

Exercise 5.4
P&G is planning to market a new makeup product. It will earn an annual profit of RM4.5
million if this product has high sales and an annual profit of RM1.2 million if the sales are
medium, and it will lose RM2.3 million a year if the sales are low. The probabilities of these
three scenarios are 0.32, 0.51 and 0.17, respectively.
a) Let x be the annual profits (in millions of RM) earned by the company from this product.
Write the probability distribution of x.
b) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of x.

Solution:

a)
x P(x)

b)
x P(x) x P(x) x2 x2 P(x)

6
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.3 The Binomial Probability Distribution

Factorial
n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2)(n – 3)…3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1 where 0! = 1.

Combinations (order does not matter)

The number of combinations for selecting x from n distinct elements.
n n n!
Cx = , - = .
x x!(n − x)!

Binomial Experiment
An experiment that satisfies the following four conditions is called a binomial experiment.
1. There are n identical trials.

2. Each trial has two and only two outcomes. These outcomes are usually called a success
and a failure. Each trial is called a

3. P(success) = p, P(failure) = q, and p + q = 1.

The probabilities p and q remain constant for each trial.

4. The trials are

Exercise 5.5
Consider the experiment consisting of 10 tosses of a coin. Determine whether it is a binomial
experiment or not.

Solution:
1. There are a total of 10 trials (tosses),

2. Each trial has

3. The probability of obtaining a head is and that of a tail is for any toss. The sum of
these two probabilities is

4. The trials are

Therefore, the experiment consisting of 10 tosses is a

7
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Binomial Random Variable

The random variable X that represents the number of successes in n trials for a binomial
experiment is called the binomial random variable.

Binomial Probability Distribution

The probability distribution of X in a binomial experiment is called the binomial probability
distribution or the binomial distribution, which is denoted by Bin (n,p). We will write this as
X ~ Bin (n,p).

Binomial Formula
For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is given by
n
P(X = x) = nCx p x q n"x = , - p x q n"x
x

where n = total number of trials

p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
x = number of successes in n trials
n – x = number of failures in n trials

Note: To find the probability of x successes in n trials for a binomial experiment, the only
parameters needed are those of n and p.

8
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Exercise 5.6
1. Five percent of all DVD players manufactured by a large electronics company are defective.
A quality control inspector randomly selects three DVD players from the production line. What
is the probability that exactly one of these three DVD players is defective?

Solution:
Let D be a defective DVD player, and G be a good DVD player.

Using tree diagram:

Using binomial formula:

n= x= n – x = number of good DVD =
p = P(success) = q = P(failure) = 1 – p =

Therefore, the probability that exactly one of these three DVD players is defective is

9
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

2. In a survey of senior executives, 35% of the executives said that good employees leave
companies because they are unhappy with the management. Assume that this result holds true
for the current population of senior executives. Let x denotes the number in a random sample
of three senior executives who hold this opinion. Write the probability of x. Then, draw a bar
graph for this probability distribution.

Solution:

10
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Binomial Probability Table

Apart from using the binomial distribution formula, we can also refer to a special statistical
table to obtain binomial probabilities. The statistical table enables us to obtain the probability
of r successes for a binomial variable with parameters n and p (n trials and probability of a
success equals p). We shall refer to the binomial table in The New Cambridge Statistical
Tables. It tabulates the cumulative binomial probabilities in the form of

P(X ≤ r) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = r),

that is, the probability of obtaining at most r successes from n trials.

Some binomial probabilities tabulated in the New Cambridge Statistical Tables:

Total number Number of successes, r = 2

of trials, n

P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9994

To facilitate the usage of this table, the following relationships are useful to know:

• P(X = r) = P(X ≤ r) − P(X ≤ r −1)

• P(X < r) = P(X ≤ r − 1)
• P(X ≥ r) = 1 − P(X ≤ r −1)
• P(X > r) = 1 − P(X ≤ r)

Note: The right-hand side of the above equations all contain the inequality “ ≤ ”.

11
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Exercise 5.7
Suppose X ∼ Bin (n = 5, p = 0.05). Find the following probability from the binomial statistical
table:
a) P(X ≤ 2), b) P(X < 2) , c) P(X = 2) , d) P(X ≥ 2) , e) P(X > 2) .

Solution:

12
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

The Cambridge Statistical Table only tabulates binomial probabilities for p = 0.01 until p = 0.50.
For a binomial event with probability of a success greater than 0.50, we should consider its
complementary event. If the probability of a success, p > 0.50, then the probability of its
complement (a failure), would be less than 0.5, that is, q = 1 – p ≤ 0.5.

Let X be the number of successes and Y be the number of failures from n binomial trials. If the
probability of a success is denoted by p and the probability of a failure is denoted by q, then

X ∼ Bin (n, p) and Y ∼ Bin (n, q), with p + q = 1.

Since the number of trials for a binomial experiment is fixed at n, therefore,

X+Y=n or X = n – Y.

Thus, P(X = r) = P(n – Y = r) = P(Y = n – r) and

P(X ≤ r) = P(n – Y ≤ r) = P(Y ≥ n – r).

Exercise 5.8
Let X ∼ Bin (13, 0.55). Find P(X = 5) and P(X ≥ 8).

Solution:

13
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Shape of Binomial Distribution

For any number of trials n:

1) The binomial probability distribution is

Probability distribution of x for

n = 4 and p = 0.5
x P(x)
0 0.0625
1 0.2500
2 0.3750
3 0.2500
4 0.0625

2) The binomial probability distribution is

Probability distribution of x for

n = 4 and p = 0.3
x P(x)
0 0.2401
1 0.4116
2 0.2646
3 0.0756
4 0.0081

3) The binomial probability distribution is

Probability distribution of x for

n = 4 and p = 0.8
x P(x)
0 0.0016
1 0.0256
2 0.1536
3 0.4096
4 0.4096

14
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Mean & Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution

Suppose X ∼ Bin (n, p). Then the mean and standard deviation of X are
! = np and & = /npq
where q = 1 – p.

Suppose X ∼ Bin (n, p) and Y = n – X. Then

Y ∼ Bin (n, 1 – p).

Exercise 5.9
According to a survey conducted for World Vision and released in February 2009, 56% of teens
in the United State volunteer time for charitable causes. Assume that this result is true for the
current population of U.S. teens. A sample of 60 teens is selected. Let x be the number of teens
in this sample who volunteer time for charitable causes. Find the mean and standard deviation
of the probability distribution of x.

Solution:

15
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.4 The Hypergeometric Distribution

The hypergeometric probability distribution is useful for determining the probability of a

number of occurrences when sampling is done without replacement. It counts the number of
successes (x) in n selections from a population of N elements, k of which are successes and
(N – k) of which are failures.

Hypergeometric Probability Density Function

Consider a statistical experiment where a sample of n observations are to be taken without
replacement from a population of size N. The population contains k items that are labeled
'success' and N – k items that are labeled 'failure'. If a random variable X assumes the value
equal to the number of successes in the sample of size n, then X has a hypergeometric
distribution with parameters N, n and k.

The random variable X is said to be hypergeometrically distributed with parameters N, n and

k, and has the following probability density function:

k
Cx (N"k)Cn"x
P(X = x) = N
, x = 0, 1, 2, 3,…, k.
Cn

Exercise 5.10
ABC Corporation has 12 employees who hold managerial positions. Of them, 7 are female and
5 are male. The company is planning to send 3 of these 12 managers to a conference. If 3
managers are randomly selected out of 12, find the probability that
a) all 3 of them are female.
b) at most 1 of them is a female.

Solution:
Total number of managers, Number of successes,
Number of selections, Number of success (female) in n selections,

a) The probability that all 3 of them are female is

b) The probability that at most 1 of them is a female is

16
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.5 The Poisson Probability Distribution

Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that applies to occurrences of some

events over a specified interval. The random variable X is the number of occurrences of the
events in an interval. The interval can be time, distance, area, volume or some similar unit.

Properties of Poisson Process

1) The number of outcomes occurring in an interval is independent of the number that occur
in any other interval. [Poisson process has no memory]

2) The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short interval is proportional
to the length of the interval and does not depend on the number of outcomes occurring
outside this interval.

3) The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short interval is negligible.

Examples of discrete random variable for which the Poisson probability distribution can be
applied.
• The number of telemarketing phone calls received by a household during a given day.
• The number of mistakes typed on a given page.
• The number of customers entering a grocery store during a one-hour interval.

Poisson Probability Distribution Formula

The probability of x occurrences in an interval is
0 x e"#
P(X = x) = , x = 0, 1, 2,…
x!
where 0 is the mean number of occurrences in that interval. The Poisson distribution is denoted
by Poisson (0).

Exercise 5.11
A washing machine in a laundry shop breaks down an average of three times per month. Find
the probability that during the next month this machine will have
a) exactly two breakdowns,
b) at most one breakdown.

Solution:
Mean, 0 =
a) P(exactly 2 breakdowns) =

b) P(at most 1 breakdown) =

17
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Poisson Probability Table

Like the binomial probabilities, the Poisson probabilities can also be obtained from a statistical
table. The statistical table gives the probability of obtaining r outcomes for a Poisson variable
with parameter µ. We shall refer to the Poisson table listed in The New Cambridge Statistical
Tables. This table tabulates cumulative Poisson probabilities in the form of

P(X ≤ r) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = r),

that is, the probability of obtaining at most r outcomes.

Some Poisson probabilities tabulated in The New Cambridge Statistical Tables:

Number of occurrences /outcomes, r = 2

Mean number of
occurrences, !

P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9999

Exercise 5.12
Let X ~ Poisson (3). Using table, find
a) P(X ≤ 2), b) P(X = 2), c) P(X > 2).

Solution:
a) P(X ≤ 2) =

b) P(X = 2) =

c) P(X > 2) =

18
 MAA161 S2, 2024/25 5 | DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Mean & Variance of the Poisson Probability Distribution

Suppose X ~ Poisson (0), then ! = 0 = & 2 .

Poisson Approximation of the Binomial Distribution

A binomial distribution with a sufficiently large number of trials, n, and a sufficiently small
probability of success, p, can be approximated with a Poisson distribution. We will consider n
to be sufficiently large and p to be sufficiently small, such that np < 10.

Let X ∼ Bin (n, p) with np < 10. A Poisson appproximation of X results in

X ~ Poisson (0 = np)

Exercise 5.13
Lazaria provides free examination of its products for 7 days. If not completely satisfied, a
customer can return the product within that period and get a full refund. According to past
records of a company, an average of 2 of every 10 products sold by this company are returned
for a refund. Find the probability that exactly 6 of the 40 products sold by this company on a
given day will be returned for a refund by using
a) binomial distribution,
b) Poisson approximation.

Solution:

19