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MATH03 - CO5 Reviewer

The document outlines Course Outcome 5 for MATH03, focusing on Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing for the academic year 2024-2045. It covers key concepts such as interval estimation, hypothesis testing for two samples, and the relationship between confidence levels and alpha values. The document includes formulas, examples, and explanations for estimating population parameters using sample data.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
15 views22 pages

MATH03 - CO5 Reviewer

The document outlines Course Outcome 5 for MATH03, focusing on Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing for the academic year 2024-2045. It covers key concepts such as interval estimation, hypothesis testing for two samples, and the relationship between confidence levels and alpha values. The document includes formulas, examples, and explanations for estimating population parameters using sample data.

Uploaded by

johnrupertcruz
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

parameter, it includes margin of error and


confidence level.
COURSE OUTCOME 5 OUTLINE

I.​ INTERVAL ESTIMATION ●​ Alpha (𝑎) - Area outside the confidence


interval (chance of error)
II.​ INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING

III.​ HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR TWO SAMPLES ●​ Confidence Level - percentage of all
possible samples that are expected to
include the true population parameter.
LESSON 1: Interval Estimation
●​ Confidence Interval - Interval Estimate of
Definition of Terms where the parameter may be located.
●​ Parameter - A numerical value that -​ Dependent on the value of the
describes a characteristic of a population Confidence Level
-​ Population Mean (µ) -​ Range of values you expect your
-​ Population Proportion (𝑝) estimate to fall between

●​ Statistics - A numerical value that An interval estimate gives a range of values used to
guess a population parameter. This range may or may
describes a characteristic of a sample
not actually include the true parameter
-​ Sample Mean (𝑥̄)
-​ Sample Proportion (𝑝̂)
The confidence level is the probability that the interval
will contain the true parameter if the process is
●​ Estimation - A statistical process used to repeated many times.
infer the value of a population parameter
based on sample data It is calculated as 1 - 𝛼 , where 𝛼 is the chance that the
. true parameter falls outside the interval
●​ Point Estimate - A single value derived
from a sample that serves as the “best CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
guess” of an unknown population
parameter.
-​ Sample Mean (𝑥̄)
-​ Population Mean (µ)

●​ Interval Estimate - A range of values


calculated from sample data, that is likely Getting Alpha (𝛼):
to include the true value of a population

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 1
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

95% Confidence Level

Alpha Visual Guide


The confidence level is directly connected to

alpha 𝑎, the margin of error 𝐸, and the Z-score ( The white part is the confidence interval

𝑍𝑎/2) in the process of estimating a population

parameter. ●​ Confidence Level - The confidence level


is the probability (or degree of certainty)
that a confidence interval will contain the
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = 1 − 𝑎
true population parameter.
-​ The confidence level is the
●​ Alpha (𝑎) - Area outside the confidence percentage of all possible samples
interval (chance of error) that are expected to include the
Example: true population parameter.
●​ 95% CL → α = 0.05 → 5% risk of -​ “A 95% confidence level means that
being wrong 95 out of 100 samples will capture
the true population mean (μ)”
●​ 90% CL → α = 0.10 → 10% risk

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 2
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

Common Confidence Levels and Z-scores: Z-table ⇒ Z = 1.96

Confidence 𝑍𝑎/2 (𝑍 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑎 (𝐴𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎) ●​ Alpha (𝑎) - Area outside the confidence
Level
interval (chance of error)
90% 1.645 0.10 -​ It tells us the chance that we're
wrong (the Confidence Level
95% 1.96 0.05 misses the true value).

99% 2.576 0.01


Formula for Alpha (𝑎)

How to find the Z-score using the given 𝑎 = 1 − 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙


Confidence Level: 𝑎
2
= 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙
Example:
1.​ Confidence Level is 95%
2.​ 𝑎 = 1 - 0.95 (95%) = 0.05
3.​ 𝑎/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025
4.​ Area to the left = 1 - 0.025 = 0.975
5.​ Look up 0.975 in the Z-table

●​ Z-score (𝑍𝑎/2) - To build the confidence

interval, we use a Z-score that


corresponds to the tails of the normal
distribution.
●​ MARGIN OF ERROR (𝐸) - The margin of
error is the maximum expected difference
between the sample statistic and the
population parameter.

Formula for MARGIN OF ERROR (𝐸)


σ
𝐸 = 𝑍𝑎/2 ·
𝑛
Higher confidence level → larger E​

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 3
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

General Formula:
Larger sample size → smaller E​ 𝐶𝐼 = 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 ± 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟

Larger variability (σ) → larger E CI for the Mean: (σ 𝐾𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛)


σ
𝐶𝐼 = 𝑥̄ ± 𝑍𝑎/2 ·
𝑛
Explanation: ●​ 𝑥̄ - Sample mean
The confidence level tells us how sure we are ●​ σ - Population Standard Deviation
that our interval contains the true population ●​ 𝑛 - Sample Size
value. ●​ 𝑍 - Z-score for confidence level​
𝑎/2

The remaining probability, alpha 𝑎 , represents


the total chance of error, which is split equally Visual Aid
between the two tails of the normal distribution
(so each tail gets 𝑎/2).

The Z-score (Zα/2) corresponds to this tail area


and marks how far from the mean we must go
to capture the desired confidence level— for
instance, a 95% confidence level has α = 0.05
and Zα/2 = 1.96.

The margin of error (E) is calculated by


multiplying this Z-score by the standard error of
the sample mean:
Estimating Population Mean
σ (Sigma Known)
𝐸 = 𝑍𝑎/2 ·
𝑛
It is the process of using a sample mean to guess the
true mean of a population when the population's
So, the confidence interval is built as:
standard deviation (σ) is already known.

σ
𝑥̄ ± 𝑍𝑎/2 · ​
𝑛 FORMULA:

One tailed lower ( - )

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 4
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

EXAMPLE 1:

One tailed upper ( + ) The scores of a random sample of 120 college


freshmen on a standardized Mathematics exam in
Mapúa University gave a mean score of 85. The
population standard deviation is 15.
Two-tailed
a. What is the best point estimate of the true
average score in this standardized exam?

b. What is the standard error of this point estimate?


Point estimation and margin of error
c. What is the margin of error or maximum allowable
error at a 95% confidence level?

d. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for


the true average Mathematics score.

e. If the average Mathematics score in Arizona State


Case 1 University is 82, can you conclude that there is a
• n is small significant difference between the average
• Population distribution is Mathematics scores of Mapúa University and Arizona
approximately Normal State University?
Case 2
• n ≥ 30 GIVEN:
Case 3
• n < 30
• Population distribution is
not normally distributed or
unknown
One and Two-tailed z-Values

One-Tailed Two-Tailed Confidence level and Alpha

±1.28 ±1.645 0.10(90%) a ) SOLUTION

±1.645 ±1.96 0.05(95%)

b ) SOLUTION
±1.96 ±2.33 0.025(97%)

±2.33 ±2.575 0.01(99%)


c ) SOLUTION

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 5
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

a. Construct a 95% two-sided confidence interval for


the mean battery lifespan.​
b. Construct a 95% lower-confidence bound for the
mean battery lifespan.​
GIVEN

Since it didn’t stated what type of tail it is, it will be


two-tailed since that is the common tail
d ) SOLUTION

a) Solution

e ) SOLUTION

b) Solution
EXAMPLE 2:
The lifespan in hours of a certain brand of laptop
batteries is known to be normally distributed with a

standard deviation of σ = 18 hours. A random

sample of 25 batteries has a mean lifespan of 𝑥=


520

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 6
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

d. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for


the true proportion of students who prefer online
classes.

GIVEN:

Estimating Population Proportion


It is the process of using sample data to guess the true
proportion (percentage) of a population that has a

certain characteristic We use the sample proportion ( 𝑝

) to estimate the unknown population proportion ( 𝑝 )


One-Tailed lower ( - )

a ) SOLUTION

One-Tailed upper ( + )

b ) SOLUTION

Two-Tailed

Point estimation and margin of error


c ) SOLUTION

EXAMPLE 1:

A random sample of 200 students was surveyed at a


university, and 130 students said they preferred
online classes over face-to-face classes.

a. What is the best point estimate of the true d ) SOLUTION


proportion of students who prefer online classes?​
b. What is the standard error of this point estimate?​
c. What is the margin of error at a 95% confidence
level?​

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 7
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

5.​ Approaches Normal Distribution: As the sample


size (n) increases (and thus df increases), the
t-distribution gets closer and closer to the
standard normal (z) distribution.

Key Terminology & Formulas


1.​ Point Estimate: The best single guess for the
population mean (μ) is the sample mean (xˉ).

LESSON 1.3. ESTIMATING POPULATION MEAN


(SIGMA UNKNOWN)

Objective: To estimate the true mean (μ) of a


population using a sample when we do not know the
population's standard deviation (σ).
Core Concept: The t-Distribution 2.​ Sample Standard Deviation (s): Our estimate
for the unknown population standard deviation
When the population standard deviation (σ) is (σ).
unknown, we cannot use the standard normal (z)
distribution directly for constructing confidence
intervals. Instead, we estimate σ using the sample
standard deviation (s). This introduces extra
uncertainty, especially with smaller sample sizes.

To account for this added uncertainty, we use the


Student's t-distribution (or simply the t-distribution). 3.​ Confidence Interval (CI): A range of values
constructed from sample data such that we
Key Characteristics of the t-Distribution: are (1−α)×100% confident that the interval
1.​ Bell-shaped and Symmetric: Similar to the contains the true population mean (μ).
normal distribution, it's centered around 0. ●​ General Form: Point Estimate±Margin of
2.​ Family of Curves: Unlike the single standard Error
normal distribution, the t-distribution is a family ●​ Specific Form (when σ is unknown): xˉ±E
of curves. The specific curve is determined by 4.​ Margin of Error (E): The maximum likely
the degrees of freedom (df). difference between the sample mean (xˉ) and
3.​ Degrees of Freedom (df): For estimating a the population mean (μ) for a given confidence
single population mean, df=n−1, where n is the level.
sample size.
4.​ Wider Tails: Compared to the standard normal
distribution, the t-distribution has slightly fatter
tails and is less peaked. This reflects the greater
uncertainty when using s to estimate σ.

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 8
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

Example:

A researcher wants to estimate the average weight


5.​ Critical t-value (tα/2​): The value from the
(μ) of a specific breed of cat at 6 months. They
t-distribution table or calculator that
assume cat weights for this breed are approximately
corresponds to:
normally distributed. They collect a random sample
●​ The desired confidence level (1−α).
of n=10 cats and find the sample mean weight is
●​ The degrees of freedom (df=n−1).
xˉ=3.5 kg with a sample standard deviation of s=0.4
●​ It defines the boundaries for the middle
kg. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the true
(1−α) area under the t-distribution
mean weight.
curve. α is the significance level (e.g., for
a 95% CI, α=0.05, and we look for 𝑡0.025​). Given: n=10, xˉ=3.5, s=0.4, Confidence Level = 95%.
6.​ Confidence Interval Formula:
Check Conditions: n=10<30 (small sample).
Population is approximately normal. -> Case 1
applies. Use t-distribution.

Degrees of Freedom: df=n−1=10−1=9.


Case 1:

Significance Level: α=1−0.95=0.05.


Conditions:​

Critical Value: We need tα/2 ​= 𝑡0.05/2​=𝑡0.025 with df=9.

●​ Sample size n is small (n<30). Using a t-table or calculator, 𝑡0.025, 9 9 ​≈ 2.262.


●​ The population from which the sample is
drawn is approximately normally Margin of Error (E):
𝑠 0.4
distributed. 𝐸 = 𝑡α/2(
𝑛
) = 2. 262(
10
) ≈ 0. 286

Method: The conditions align perfectly with the Confidence Interval: xˉ±E=3.5±0.286
requirements for using the t-distribution. The
normality assumption validates its use even with a Lower Limit: 3.5 − 0.286 = 3.214 kg
small sample.​
Upper Limit: 3.5 + 0.286 = 3.786 kg

Formula: Use the t-distribution confidence interval: Conclusion: We are 95% confident that the true
mean weight of this breed of cat at 6 months is
between 3.214 kg and 3.786 kg.

LESSON 2.2. HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR THE POPULATION

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 9
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

●​ Sample Mean (xˉ): The average of a variable


LESSON 2.1. INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING
calculated from a sample. We have two sample
means, xˉ1​and xˉ2​.
●​ Sample Size (n): The number of observations in
Key Definitions:
a sample. We have two sample sizes, n1​and n2​.
●​ Sampling Distribution of the Difference
●​ Hypothesis Testing: A statistical method used
Between Two Sample Means: The distribution
to determine if there is enough evidence in a
of all possible differences between sample
sample data to draw conclusions about a
means (xˉ1​−xˉ2​) that could be drawn from the
population.
two populations. When σ1​and σ2​are known
●​ Null Hypothesis (H0​): A statement of no
and the populations are normally distributed or
difference or no effect. In this context, it typically
the sample sizes are large enough (typically
states that the difference between the two
n1​≥30 and n2​≥30), this distribution is normal.
population means is equal to a specific value
●​ Standard Error of the Difference Between Two
(often zero).
Sample Means: The standard deviation of the
●​ Alternative Hypothesis (Ha​or H1​): A statement
sampling distribution of the difference between
that contradicts the null hypothesis. It suggests
two sample means. It measures the variability
that there is a significant difference or effect.
of the difference in sample means.
For the difference between two population
●​ Test Statistic (z-score): A standardized value
means, it can take one of three forms:
that measures how many standard errors the
○​ Ha​:μ1​−μ2​=D0​(Two-tailed test: the
observed difference in sample means (xˉ1​−xˉ2​)
difference is not equal to D0​)
is away from the hypothesized difference in
○​ Ha​:μ1​−μ2​>D0​(Right-tailed test: the
population means (μ1​−μ2​) under the null
difference is greater than D0​)
hypothesis.
○​ Ha​:μ1​−μ2​<D0​(Left-tailed test: the
●​ Significance Level (α): The probability of
difference is less than D0​)
rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually
○​ Note: D0​is the hypothesized difference
true (Type I error). Common values are 0.05,
between the population means, which
0.01, or 0.10.
is often 0.
●​ P-value: The probability of obtaining a test
●​ Population Mean (μ): The true average of a
statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than,
variable for an entire population. We have two
the one observed in the sample data, assuming
population means, μ1​and μ2​.
the null hypothesis is true.
●​ Population Standard Deviation (σ): A measure
●​ Critical Value(s): The value(s) from the
of the spread or variability of a variable in an
standard normal distribution that define the
entire population. We are given that σ1​and σ2​
rejection region(s) for the hypothesis test,
are known.

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 10
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

based on the significance level and the type of ○​ Write down the null hypothesis, typically
test (one-tailed or two-tailed). stating there is no difference or a
●​ Rejection Region: The area(s) under the specific difference (H0​:μ1​−μ2​=D0​).
sampling distribution curve where the test ○​ Write down the alternative hypothesis,
statistic would lead to the rejection of the null which reflects the claim you are trying
hypothesis. to find evidence for (Ha​:μ1​−μ2​=D0​,
Ha​:μ1​−μ2​>D0​, or Ha​:μ1​−μ2​<D0​).
Formulas: Determine if it's a one-tailed or
two-tailed test.
●​ Standard Error of the Difference Between Two
2.​ Choose the Significance Level (α):​
Sample Means:​

○​ This value is usually provided in the


problem statement. It represents the
​ maximum probability of making a Type
I error that you are willing to accept.
●​ Test Statistic (z-score) for the Difference 3.​ Determine the Appropriate Test and Sampling
Between Two Population Means (Known σ1​and Distribution:​
σ2​):​
○​ Since the population standard
deviations (σ1​and σ2​) are known, and
assuming the populations are normally
distributed or sample sizes are large
○​ Note: Under the null hypothesis
(n1​≥30 and n2​≥30), the appropriate test
H0​:μ1​−μ2​=D0​, the term (μ1​−μ2​) in the
is a z-test, and the sampling
numerator becomes D0​.
distribution of the difference in sample

Steps on How to Solve This Statistics Topic (Hypothesis means is the standard normal (z)

Testing): distribution.
4.​ Calculate the Test Statistic (z-score):​
1.​ State the Null and Alternative Hypotheses (H0​
and Ha​):​ ○​ Collect the sample data: xˉ1​, n1​, xˉ2​, and
n2​.
○​ Clearly define the two populations and ○​ Use the known population standard
the parameters (μ1​and μ2​) you are deviations, σ1​and σ2​.
comparing. ○​ Substitute the values into the z-score
formula:

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 11
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

■​ For a left-tailed test, the


p-value is P(Z<zcalculated​).
6.​ Make a Decision:​

○​ Using Critical Value(s):​


■​ If the calculated test statistic


5.​ Determine the Critical Value(s) or Calculate
falls within the rejection region
the P-value:​
(i.e., beyond the critical
value(s)), reject the null
○​ Using Critical Value(s):​
hypothesis (H0​).
■​ If the calculated test statistic
■​ Based on the chosen
does not fall within the rejection
significance level (α) and the
region, do not reject the null
type of test (one-tailed or
hypothesis (H0​).
two-tailed), find the critical
○​ Using the P-value:​
z-value(s) from the standard
normal distribution table or a
■​ If the p-value is less than or
calculator.
equal to the significance level
■​ For a two-tailed test, you will
(α), reject the null hypothesis
have two critical values (±zα/2​).
(H0​).
■​ For a right-tailed test, you will
■​ If the p-value is greater than
have one critical value (zα​).
the significance level (α), do not
■​ For a left-tailed test, you will
reject the null hypothesis (H0​).
have one critical value (−zα​).
7.​ State the Conclusion:​
○​ Using the P-value:​

○​ Write a concluding sentence in the


■​ Calculate the p-value
context of the problem. This sentence
associated with the calculated
should state whether there is sufficient
test statistic (z-score) using the
evidence to support the alternative
standard normal distribution.
hypothesis. Avoid saying that you
■​ For a two-tailed test, the
"accept" the null hypothesis; instead,
p-value is
say that you "do not reject" it.
2×P(Z>∣zcalculated​∣).
■​ For a right-tailed test, the
p-value is P(Z>zcalculated​).

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 12
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

less than 1500 hours. To test this claim, a random


sample of 40 light bulbs is selected, and their
lifespans are recorded. The sample reveals a mean
Hypothesis Testing for the
lifespan of 1450 hours. Assuming the population
Population Mean: standard deviation Known
standard deviation of the lifespan of these light
A statistical process where we analyze sample data to
bulbs is 120 hours, and using a significance level of
determine if there's enough evidence to reject or
support a claim about the average value of an entire α = 0.01, test the advocacy group's claim using the
population, given a known measure of its variability critical-value approach.

GIVEN:​
Test Statistic for the Population Mean (𝝈 Known)
Formula:

wherein:
SOLUTION:

STEP 1: Formulate the hypotheses and identify the


claim.

Hypothesis Tests

𝐻𝑜(Null Hypothesis) 𝐻𝑎(Alternative Hypothesis)


The alternative hypothesis ( ) is the claim since
it has stated from the word problem
= ≠(Two-Tailed)
STEP 2: Find the critical value with the
≥ <(Left-Tailed) corresponding level of significance and type of test.

≤ >(Right-Tailed)

The level of significance ( ) is left tailed because


EXAMPLE 1:
of the claim base from this table

A consumer advocacy group claims that the


average lifespan of a particular brand of light bulb is

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 13
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

There is enough evidence to support the claim that


the average lifespan of this particular brand of light
bulb is less than 1500 hours

EXAMPLE 2

A manufacturer of a certain type of LED light bulb


claims that the average lifespan of their bulbs is at
least 10,000 hours. A consumer group suspects that
the average lifespan is actually less than advertised.
They take a random sample of 35 bulbs and find the
The critical value is gotten from this table: mean lifespan to be 9,850 hours. If the population
standard deviation of the lifespan is known to be

400 hours, at a significance level of α = 0.025, is


there enough evidence to support the consumer
group's suspicion using the critical-value approach?

GIVEN:​

STEP 3: Compute the test value.

SOLUTION:

STEP 1: Formula the hypotheses and identify the


Round to three decimal places for Test Value claim.

STEP 4: Make the decision.

STEP 5: Interpret the result. The claim is Null hypothesis because the word
problem stated “atleast” if it is greater or more than
it would be the alternative hypothesis

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 14
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

STEP 2: Find the critical value with the


corresponding level of significance and type of test.

STEP 4: Make the decision.

STEP 5: Interpret the result.

The level of significance is left tailed because of the There is enough evidence to support the claim that
table of Hypothesis test the average lifespan of their bulbs is at least 10,000
hours

EXAMPLE 3

A nutritionist believes that the average calorie


content of a certain brand of granola bar is 210
calories. To test this claim, a laboratory randomly
The critical value is -1.96 because from the table of samples 50 granola bars and finds the mean calorie
One and Two-Tailed z-values content to be 205 calories. If the population
standard deviation of the calorie content is known to
be 15 calories, at a significance level of α = 0.05, is
there enough evidence to reject the nutritionist's
claim using the critical-value approach?

STEP 3: Compute the test value.

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 15
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

GIVEN:

SOLUTION:

STEP 1: Formulate the hypotheses and identify the


STEP 3: Compute the test value.
claim.

The claim is the null hypothesis because the


STEP 4: Make the decision.
problem stated “is” if it stated “is not” then the claim
would be alternative hypothesis

STEP 2: Find the critical value with the


corresponding level of significance and type of test.
Since the test value is in between meaning it will fail,
if it is not in between we will use this:

STEP 5: Interpret the result.

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 16
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

There is not enough evidence to reject the claim that


the granola bar has an average of 210 calories.

EXAMPLE 4
The claim is alternative hypothesis because the
problem stated “more than”
A quality control manager at a light bulb factory
wants to test the claim that the average lifespan of
STEP 2: Compute the test value.
their new energy-efficient light bulbs is more than
8000 hours. A random sample of 49 light bulbs is
tested, and the sample mean lifespan is found to be
8050 hours. If the population standard deviation of
the lifespan of these light bulbs is 250 hours, is there
sufficient evidence to support the manager's claim at
a 5% level of significance? Use the P-Value Method.
STEP 3: Find the 𝑝-value.

The word problem is a right tailed test so the form o

the probability would be this .


After that find the value of the test value from the
Z-Table
GIVEN:

STEP 4: Make the decision.

SOLUTION:

STEP 1: Formulate the hypotheses and identify the


claim.
The reason why it is failed to reject the null
hypothesis because it is greater than level
significance, if it is less than level of significance
then it would be reject null hypothesis

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 17
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

STEP 5: Interpret the result. STEP 1: Formulate the hypotheses and identify the
claim.
There is not enough evidence to reject the claim that
the average lifespan of the light bulbs is 8000 hours.

EXAMPLE 5 (Two-tailed, P-value method)

STEP 2: Compute the test value.


A researcher believes that the average height of
adult males in a certain population is 175 cm. A
random sample of 60 adult males is measured, and
their mean height is found to be 173 cm. If the
population standard deviation of the height is known

to be 6 cm, at a significance level of α = 0.10, is there


enough evidence to reject the researcher's belief
using the P-value approach?

STEP 3: Find the 𝑝-value.

Since it’s two-tailed value the probability form would


be

GIVEN:
OR

SOLUTION: STEP 4: Make the decision

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 18
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

EXAMPLE 1

A health researcher claims that the average number


of flu cases per week in a city is greater than 25.0. A
random sample of 12 weeks shows a mean of 27.2
STEP 5: Interpret the result.
cases with a sample standard deviation of 3.5. At a
significance level of α = 0.05, is there enough
There is enough evidence to reject the researcher's
evidence to reject the researcher’s claim?
belief that the average height of adult males is 175
cm.

GIVEN:

LESSON 2.2. HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR THE


POPULATION MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION
UNKNOWN

When to Use This Test:

You use this test when:

1.​ You want to test a claim about a single


SOLUTION:
population mean (μ).
2.​ You do not know the standard deviation of the STEP 1: Formulate the hypotheses and identify the
entire population (σ). claim.
3.​ You have sample data, including the sample
mean (xˉ), the sample standard deviation (s),
and the sample size (n).
4.​ The sample is random, and the population is
approximately normally distributed OR the
sample size (n) is large enough (usually n≥30).

Because the population standard deviation (σ) is STEP 2: Find the critical value with the
unknown, we use the sample standard deviation (s) as corresponding level of significance and type of test.
an estimate and use the Student's t-distribution
instead of the Normal (Z) distribution.

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 19
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

STEP 3: Compute the test value.

𝑛 = 10
𝝰 = 0. 10
STEP 4: Make the decision SOLUTION:

STEP 1: Formula the hypotheses and identify the


claim.

STEP 5: Interpret the result.

There is enough evidence to support the idea that


the average number of flu cases per week in a city is
greater than 25.0. STEP 2: Find the critical value with the
corresponding level of significance and type of test.

EXAMPLE 2
A nutritionist claims that the average amount of STEP 3: Compute the test value.
sugar in a popular brand of granola bars is less than
12 grams. To test this claim, she selects a random
sample of 10 bars and records the following sugar
contents (in grams):

10.8, 11.2, 12.0, 9.5, 11.0, 10.4, 11.8, 10.2, 9.8, 10.6

At a 0.10 significance level, test the nutritionist’s claim.

GIVEN: STEP 4: Make the decision.

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 20
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

STEP 5: Interpret the result. characteristic to the total number of elements in the
sample.
There is enough evidence to support the nutritionist’s
claim that the average sugar content is less than 12 𝑥
𝑝= 𝑛
grams.

EXAMPLE 1
LESSON 2.3. HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR THE
POPULATION PROPORTION
A US News Agency claimed that less than 28% of US
Citizens supported Donald Trump's increase in tariffs.
A sample of 1000 citizens showed that 300
When to Use This Test:
supported Trump's new policies. At a 1% level of
You use this test when: significance, is there enough evidence to support
the claim? Use the Critical-Value approach.
1.​ You want to test a claim about a single
population proportion (μ).
2.​ You have the sample proportion (𝑝), the
GIVEN:
hypothesized population proportion (p), and
the sample size (n).

Population Proportion (p)- obtained by taking the ratio


of the number of elements in a population with a
SOLUTION:
specific characteristic to the total number of elements
in the population. STEP 1: Formulate the hypotheses and identify the
claim.
𝑋
𝑝= 𝑁

Sample Proportion ( 𝑝 )- obtained by taking the ratio of


the number of elements in a sample with a specific

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 21
Probability
COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing MATH03

SECOND SEMESTER | A.Y. 2024-2045 | PREPARED BY THE MATH CLUB ACADEMIC COMMITTEE

STEP 2: Find the critical value with the


corresponding level of significance and type of test.

STEP 3: Compute the test value.

STEP 4: Make the decision

STEP 5: Interpret the result.

There is not enough evidence to support the claim


that less 28% of US Citizens supported Donald
Trump's increase in tariffs.

REFERENCES

MATH03: Statistics and COURSE OUTCOME 5: Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing 22
Probability

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