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Confidence Interval Estimate

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78 views30 pages

Confidence Interval Estimate

Uploaded by

anna
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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CO N F I DE N C E IN T E R V A L

E ST I MA T E O F P O P U L A TI O N
P RO P O R T I O N
A research team conducted
a survey to 1050 adults and
asked if they use public
transportation going to work.
Out of 1050 respondents, 777
said yes. Construct a 95%
confidence interval estimate.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Confidence interval expresses
an estimate of a population
parameter in a range or interval
around the point estimate instead
of a single value. It gives a better
estimate of the population.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL
Confidence level, denoted by
1 - , is the probability that the
confidence interval contains
the population proportion.
From the problem, 95%, the
confidence level, represents a level of
assurance to the constructed interval
estimate. It means if the process is
repeated and many samples are taken,
say 100 samples of the same sample size
1050, and a confidence interval is
constructed for each, 95 out of 100, the
true value of population proportion would
fall on the interval estimate constructed.
• The critical value is a z-value that separates
the outcomes that are probable to occur from
those which are not probable to occur.
• The middle region 0.95 or 95% is the
confidence interval 1 - .
•  = 0.05 is the region outside the confidence
interval estimate which is the upper and
lower tail that sums to 5%.
 
• A normal distribution is a symmetric distribution,
dividing  by two, . Thus, 2.5% on each end tail
region.
FINDING THE CRITICAL VALUE

• Using the z-table, find the z-


score that corresponds to
0.95. The z-score for 0.95 is
1.96.
 
• The critical value that separates the left tail is
. This means 2.5% lies to the left of -1.96.
 
• The critical value that separates the right tail is
. This means 2.5% lies to the right of 1.96.
 
CONFIDENCE LEVELS
The table shows the three most
common confidence levels with
corresponding
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
1 -
90% 5% 1.645
95% 2.5% 1.96
99% 0.5% 2.575
 
CONSTRUCTING A CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL FOR THE POPULATION
PROPORTION
 To estimate the confidence interval for the
population proportion, use:

where:
is the sample proportion
p is the population proportion
E is the margin of error
• It can also be expressed as
In a confidence
interval, the
range of values
above and below
the sample
statistic is called
the margin of
error.
 
MARGIN OF ERROR
 The following formula is used to find the margin of
error.

where:
E is the margin of error is the critical value
is the point estimator (sample proportion)
is the complement of n is the sample size
 
 Before constructing a confidence
interval estimate for the
population proportion, verify if n >
5 and n > 5. This is to verify that
the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion is
approximately normal.
Example: A research team
conducted a survey to 1050
adults and asked if they use
public transportation going to
work. Out of 1050 respondents,
777 said yes. Construct a 95%
confidence interval estimate.
Solution:
Step 1. List the known facts of the
x = 777
problem.
n = 1050
confidence level = 95%
 
Step 2. Find the values of and .
 
=
Step 3. Verify if the sampling
distribution of the sample proportion is
suitable for the approximation of
 
normal distribution.
Verify if n > 5 Verify if n > 5
(1050)(0.74) > 5 (1050)
(0.26) > 5
777 > 5
273 > 5
*Since both conditions were satisfied, the
confidence interval can be constructed.
 
Step 4. Find the critical value that
corresponds to the given confidence
interval.
Using the z-table, find the z-score that
corresponds to 0.95. The z-score for
0.95 is 1.96. Thus, = 1.96.
 
Step 5. Find the margin of error.

(express answer in three decimal places)


 
Step 6. Construct the confidence
interval estimate for p.

left endpoint : 0.74 – 0.027 = 0.713


right endpoint : 0.74 + 0.027 = 0.767
Interpretation of results: 95% confidence can
be guaranteed that the proportion of adults
who use public transportation to go to work is
between 71.3% and 76.7%.
Do this.
A survey was conducted to 1000
students to determine their plans
after senior high school. Out of
1000, 740 expressed that they
intend to pursue studies in a
college or university. Construct a
99% confidence interval estimate.
 
Solution:
Step 1. List the known facts of the
problem.
x = 740
n = 1000
 = 99%
Step 2. Find the values of and .
=
 
Step 3. Verify if the sampling
distribution of the sample proportion is
suitable for the approximation of
normal distribution.
Verify if n > 5 Verify if n > 5
(1000)(0.74) > 5 1000)(0.26)
>5
740 > 5 260 >
5
 
Step 4. Find the critical value that
corresponds to the given confidence
interval.
The 99% level of confidence
corresponds to
= 2.575.
 
Step 5. Find the margin of error.

(express answer in three decimal places)


 
Step 6. Construct the confidence
interval estimate for p.

left endpoint : 0.74 – 0.036 = 0.704


right endpoint : 0.74 + 0.036 = 0.776
Thus, the confidence interval is
0.706 < p < 0.776.
Interpretation of results:
One can be 99% confident that
the proportion of students who
intend to pursue studies in
college in a university is
between 70.6% and 77.6%

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