Weekly Report 03.24.2025
Weekly Report 03.24.2025
Philippine Stock Exchange Index The PSEi closed relatively flat w/w at 6,266.75 after a week of
range-bound trading, slightly lower by 0.43% (-27.36pts). The
11,000 11,000.00
local bourse started the week on a positive note as investors
hunted for bargains following the previous week’s sharp sell-off.
10,000 10,000.00
However, gains were quickly capped as investors adopted a risk-
9,000 9,000.00
off stance ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate decision.
8,000 8,000.00 As widely expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady at 4.50%,
7,000 6,306.19
6,284.68 6,313.12 6,323.13 6,266.75 7,000.00 boosting sentiment mid-week after suggesting potential for two
6,000 6,000.00 rate cuts this year. On the local front, optimism was further sup-
5,000 5,000.00 ported by Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Ralph Recto’s
statement that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is likely to
4,000 4,000.00
trim policy rates in April, with room for 50 to 75 basis points
3,000 3,000.00
17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar (bps) worth of cuts this year. However, profit-taking on the final
Market Value TO in PhP mln (left axis) PSEi Level (right axis)
trading day of the week erased all gains, with investors reposi-
tioning ahead of the FTSE rebalancing, effective on Monday, 24
PSEi Top 5 Gainers / Losers Mar 2025.
CNVRG 13.8%
This week, we expect the market to trade sideways with a slight
CBC 7.7%
downside bias. Despite signals of monetary policy easing from
7.0%
URC both domestic and foreign fronts, sentiment remains muted. On
4.7%
SCC 4.4%
the foreign front, the third reading for US 4Q24 GDP report is
LTG scheduled for release on Thu, 27 Mar 2025. The market expects
-2.8% BDO 2.3% q/q growth. This aligns with the first and second reading's
-3.1% AGI 2.3% estimate.
-4.3% TEL
-5.5% BLOOM The key data releases this week are:
-8.5%
JFC 1. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for Mar 2025 on
Mon, 24 Mar 2025 (prev. 52.7; est. 51.9);
2. US GDP growth rate q/q (third reading) for 4Q25 on Thu, 27
Economic Data Mar 2025 (3Q24: 3.1%; est. 2.3%);
United States
3. US Initial Jobless Claims as of 22 Mar 2025 on Thu, 27 Mar
Period Actual Forecast Previous Unit 2025 (prev. 223k; est. 225k);
Retail Sales y/y Feb-25 3.1 3.5 3.9 %
Import Prices y/y Feb-25 2.0 1.7 1.8 % 4. PH Balance of Trade y/y on Fri, 28 Mar 2025 (prev. -
Export Prices y/y Feb-25 2.1 4.0 2.7 % USD5.089bn);
Fed Interest Rate Decision - 4.5 4.5 4.5 %
Philippines 5. PH Exports y/y on Fri, 28 Mar 2025 (prev. 6.3%); and
Cash Remittances Jan-25 2.92 3.38 USD bn
Budget Balance Jan-25 68.40 79.00 -329.50 PHP bn 6. PH Imports y/y on Fri, 28 Mar 2025 (prev. 10.8%).
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics
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₱36.00 PGOLD’s share price has dropped below PSEi Top Gainers / Losers
its 20-day and 50-day moving averages
(MAs) and is nearing its key support level
at PHP26.35. Since the start of the year, The top gainers last week were:
PGOLD has struggled to surpass its 100-
day and 200-day MAs, which further sig- • Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. (CNVRG) +13.77%
PGOLD nals weak momentum, reducing the possi-
bility of a potential reversal. On momen- Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. (CNVRG) rallied past its historical
tum indicators, its MACD and RSI are resistance of PHP17.00 after posting strong FY24 earnings.
slightly below neutral levels suggesting a
possible visit near its key support level at CNVRG’s net income grew by 18.7% y/y to PHP10.8bn on double
₱26.60
PHP25.00. Therefore, given the risk is digit growth across all business segments, with industry-leading
Last price skewed towards the downside, accumulat-
fibre net adds of 435k. It was also one of the top net foreign
ing at support is advisable.
bought stocks at PHP192.3mn.
Accumulating PGOLD on support at PHP25.00 is ad-
visable. Set stop limit orders at PHP23.00 and take • China Banking Corp. (CBC) +7.69%
profits at PHP28.75. China Banking Corp. (CBC) rose from support at its 20-day mov-
TEL has traded in an upward channel since • Universal Robina Corp. (URC) +6.99%
₱1,600.00
hitting its 52-week low of PHP1,252 in Dec
Universal Robina Corp.’s (URC) net sales grew by 3% y/y to
2024. However, the stock dropped below its
20-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) PHP161.9bn (excl. business in China which ceased manufactur-
amid a broad-based market sell-off, with the
ing and operations as of June 2024), primarily driven by volume
stock now trading around its 50-day and 100-
day MAs. While momentum indicators re- growth across all categories. By segment: BCF sales rose 1% y/y,
TEL main neutral, TEL’s 50-day MA appears set to
while AIC rose by 5% y/y. Blended gross margins increased by
cross above the 100-day MA, suggesting re-
newed bullish momentum in the medium 10bps to 27.2%, while EBIT margins declined by 70bps to 10.3%.
term. Nonetheless, we prefer accumulating
TEL once it breaks above its immediate re- Management attributed the EBIT decline to the SURE business
P1,301.00
sistance (20-day MA) on strong volume, coming off a high base, with 2024 performance impacted by
₱1,301.00
Last price which may confirm price recovery.
normalising sugar prices and a delayed milling season.
Accumulate TEL once it breaks above the 20-day
MA (around PHP1,367) on strong volume. Take
profits at PHP1,572 and set stop loss limits below The worst losers last week were:
PHP1,258.
• Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) -8.46%
International Container Terminal Services, Inc.
Jollibee Foods Corp.’s (JFC) China business and Smashburger
TRAILING STOPS |CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP439.84
continued to face challenges with FY24 EBITDA declining by -
₱439.84 The counter has been trading in a down-
54% y/y and -182.6% y/y respectively. It was also the top net
ward channel since reaching its all-time high
of PHP446.00 in Oct 2024. Since then, it has foreign sold stock at PHP463.9mn.
struggled to sustain momentum, forming
lower lows amid geopolitical uncertainties. • Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (BLOOM) -5.46%
While the stock surged by as much as 50% It was one of the top net foreign sold stocks at PHP103.3mn.
ICT in 2024 from end-2023 to its peak, replicat-
ing that rally may be challenging given the • PLDT, Inc. (TEL) -4.34%
ongoing downtrend and macroeconomic
headwinds. Given these, investors may PLDT Inc. (TEL) fell below its 50-day and 100-day moving averag-
consider reducing exposure ahead of po- es (MA) after it failed to break above its 20-day MA. It was also
₱371.00 tential volatility. We recommend imple-
menting trailing stops and taking profits one of the top net foreign sold stocks at PHP126.0mn.
Last price near the upper band of the downward
channel.
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TRADING PLAN:
• Accumulating in tranches once the index trades above 6,400 is advisable.
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
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CONSUMER STAPLES
Core income grew 12.3% y/y to PHP6.3bn, excl. one-time gain
from the BPI-RBank merger recognised early in 2024. Net sales
rose by 3.7% y/y to PHP199.2bn driven by the sustained growth
in the food and drugstore segments, as well as incremental
contributions from new stores. Consolidated SSSG for the period
RRHI 4,097 10,269 150.6% AHEAD IN LINE stood at 1.5%. Gross Profit increased by 5.5%, supported by an
improved product mix, higher penetration of imported and
private-label brands, and sustained vendor support. Meanwhile,
EBIT registered an uptick of 9.1% y/y as cost optimization
initiatives helped mitigate the impact of expansion-related
expenses.
Net sales grew by 3% y/y to PHP161.9bn (excl. business in China
which ceased manufacturing and operations as of June 2024),
primarily driven by volume growth across all categories. By
segment: BCF sales rose 1% y/y, while AIC rose by 5% y/y.
Blended gross margins increased by 10bps to 27.2%, while EBIT
URC 12,091 11,431 -5.5% BELOW AHEAD
margins declined by 70bps to 10.3%. Management attributed
the EBIT decline to the SURE business coming off a high base,
with 2024 performance impacted by normalising sugar prices
and a delayed milling season. However, they noted that sugar
regained profitability as milling resumed in 4Q24.
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INDUSTRIALS / TRANSPORTATION
Sales for FY24 rose 21% y/y to PHP40.7bn on the back of strong
export sales (+37% y/y increase to PHP12.4bn). Gross margins
and EBIT margins fell by 170bps y/y to 15.4% and 160bps y/y to
9.2% respectively, due to raw materials cost pressures.
DNL 2,295 2,339 1.9% BELOW -
Meanwhile, management reported that the Batangas plant
achieved a net profit of PHP244mn for FY24, exceeding
expectations. DNL anticipates that revenue from the new plant
will grow steadily as additional orders are secured.
REAL ESTATE
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Core net income grew 10% y/y, excluding one-off gains from the
consolidation of a JV entity in FY23. Leasing revenues jumped
DMW 7,301 1,800 -75.3% BELOW - 27% y/y to PHP3.3bn, making up 89% of total revenues, as
commercial building occupancy improved. Meanwhile,
residential revenues fell 72.5% y/y due to fewer launches.
Per segment: (i) Real estate sales rose 19% y/y to PHP51bn,
driven by sustained demand for residential properties across
townships; (ii) Leasing revenues grew 10% y/y to PHP19.7bn,
with Malls contributing PHP6.3bn (+19% y/y) and Offices
MEG 17,345 18,749 8.1% AHEAD -
PHP13.4bn (+7% y/y) on additional tenants; and (iii) Megaworld
Hotels & Resorts revenues surged 34% y/y to PHP5.1bn,
supported by the company’s focus on the global tourism market
and expansion of MICE capacities.
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Disclaimer: First Metro Securities, by policy, does not cover listed companies: Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company (MBT), GT Capital Holdings,
Inc. (GTCAP), and Philippine Savings Bank (PSB). First Metro Securities is a member of the Metrobank Group.
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within the Metrobank Group, including but not limited to, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company (MBT), GT Capital
Holdings, Inc. (GTCAP), and Philippine Savings Bank (PSB).