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Next in Line?: Target Tehran

The document discusses the complexities of modern geopolitics, highlighting the unreliable nature of alliances and the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as the Israel-Iran conflict. It warns of the potential for World War III due to escalating military actions and nuclear proliferation among nations. The author reflects on historical precedents and the need for intelligent leadership in navigating these dangerous waters.

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Wajid Ali
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8 views2 pages

Next in Line?: Target Tehran

The document discusses the complexities of modern geopolitics, highlighting the unreliable nature of alliances and the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as the Israel-Iran conflict. It warns of the potential for World War III due to escalating military actions and nuclear proliferation among nations. The author reflects on historical precedents and the need for intelligent leadership in navigating these dangerous waters.

Uploaded by

Wajid Ali
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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NEXT IN LINE?

A RELIABLE enemy (an enemy whose hostility you can count on) is as difficult to find
today as a loyal friend (a consistently supportive friend). In modern geopolitics
(international political relations), the first is a sine qua non (an essential condition), the
second a fickle firefly (an unreliable or constantly changing presence).

In its 250-year-old history, the US army has faced a range of foes (enemies). The list is
long and open-ended (without a definite limit) — from Germany, the (former) USSR,
Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Cuba, Iraq, Afghanistan and now China. The US is addicted
to war (has a strong tendency to engage in wars): it gets high on hostility (feels
empowered or excited by aggression).

Here, India and Pakistan are in the last quartile (final quarter or stage) of their ‘Hundred
Years War’. Had they been a married couple, in 2022 they would have celebrated their
diamond anniversary (60 years of a relationship). But theirs is not a union of choice (a
relationship entered willingly). It has been a reluctant pairing (an unwilling alliance),
fomented (stirred up or triggered) by suspicion and sustained by state-sponsored hate
(hatred promoted by governments).

There are still many Pakistanis and Indians who recall with genuine nostalgia (true
longing for the past) a pre-Modi India (India before Narendra Modi’s leadership), when
borders were lines not barriers (obstacles), when interest in each other was not simply
security-related (only about defense and safety), and when hope sprang (emerged) —
if not eternal, at least periodical (from time to time). They both wonder why the Indian
media (normally balanced) has become irrationally bellicose (unreasonably aggressive
or warlike), why it still advocates war-war to jaw-jaw (fighting instead of dialogue),
when peace is clearly a cheaper option (more beneficial and less costly).

The world is too dangerously close to World War III.

Or does India prefer to imitate (copy) its ally Israel and to periodically ‘mow the grass’
(launch limited military strikes to weaken opponents), using covert (secret) terrorist
attacks within Pakistan as a scythe (a weapon/tool for cutting down threats)?

Israel, like the US, has tested a number of foes (fought various enemies). The latest is
Iran. During the past week, they have been locked in open war (in open, active conflict).
This is not accidental.

In 2023, Yonah J. Bob and Ilan Evyatar in their book Target Tehran predicted as much,
with a specific date: “If the Israel-Iran chess game (strategic struggle) is played out
further, things could become ominous (threatening or dangerous). If Iran knows that
Israel also knows that it might break out (succeed in making) a nuclear weapon before
October 2025 […] Israel might decide to strike (launch an attack) before the Iranians
have had more time to prepare — in other words, before 2025.”

The book was written while Joe Biden (a Democrat) was still president. Like his
predecessor Barack Obama, Biden acted as a brake on Israel (restraining influence).
Donald Trump, however, is unashamedly Israel’s engine (openly supportive and
driving force behind Israel’s actions).
Will the Israel-Iran war continue? The two authors think it likely. Their view is that “the
conflict between Israel and Iran seems in its essence sadly unchanged (basically the
same), and perhaps unchangeable (not likely to change). Barring (except for) the
collapse of the theocratic regime (government led by religious leaders), Iran will
continue to do two things: one, strive to become (try hard to be) a nuclear weapon state,
and two, for reasons of religious ideology (belief system based on religion) and national
grandeur (desire for national greatness), seek the destruction of Israel.”

The proliferation (spread) of nuclear weapons by smaller countries had been foreseen
(predicted) by Henry Kissinger 70 years ago. In 1957, he predicted in his book Nuclear
Weapons and Foreign Policy: “Within another 15 years the diffusion (spreading) of
nuclear technology will make inevitable (unavoidable) the possession of nuclear
weapons by many now secondary states (less powerful countries).” Today, India,
Pakistan, North Korea and Israel have also gone nuclear.

Israel has never disguised its policy to prevent any ‘radical’ (extreme or revolutionary)
Muslim country from going nuclear. It noshes (eats or picks from) from a ‘table d’hôte’
menu (a fixed menu offering multiple courses). The appetiser (starter) was Iraq. In 1981,
Israel destroyed an unfinished nuclear reactor near Baghdad. The main course is Iran.
Does Iran in fact have nuclear weapons? Or are they like Iraq’s unproven WMDs
(Weapons of Mass Destruction that were never found)? And for dessert (final target),
Israel has selected Pakistan.

A distance of 3,300 kilometres separates Islamabad from Tel Aviv. Islamabad and
Beijing are closer than the notional (theoretical) 3,800km. As the spat (dispute)
following Pahalgam has proved, China and Pakistan are more than distant iron brothers
(strong allies). They are adjacent allies (close partners), with umbilical interests
(deeply connected goals).

Israel is trying to draw its sponsor (supporter) the US into the war against Iran. Trump
is tempted. He should heed (pay attention to) Kissinger’s advice: “In the Nuclear Age,
abandoning an ally risked eventual disaster (could lead to long-term problems), but
resorting to nuclear war (choosing nuclear warfare) at the side of an ally guaranteed
immediate catastrophe (would cause instant large-scale destruction).”

For the first time since 1945, the world is too dangerously close to World War III.

To understand the present situation, one needs to go back a century, to the 1914-18 war.
World War I resulted in an estimated 16 million deaths, including 9m military personnel
and 7m civilians. The paucity of intelligent leadership (lack of smart leaders) elicited
from the German Gen Erich Ludendorff the back-handed compliment (a compliment
that is also an insult) that the British soldiers were “lions, led by donkeys”.

The French politician Clemenceau went further: “War is too serious a matter to be left to
generals”. In a modern context, he would have added that nuclear warfare is too serious
a matter to be left to democratic despots (elected leaders with authoritarian
tendencies).

It is not insignificant that immediately prior to attacking Iran, on Friday the 13th, Israel’s
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Indian PM Modi. One wonders whether
Netanyahu suggested that Modi should take to gardening again (use military force),
and use his scythe (symbol of military action) to mow our grass.

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