PROBABILITY

Gangapuram sreenivasulu
PGT(MATHS)
TGSWRSJC. ACHAMPET
• In mathematical statistics we do have methods for
calculating the degree of Certainity of events in numerical
value under certain conditions .A measure of uncertainty is
provided by a branch of mathematics called theory of
probability.
• The definition of probability was given by Pierre-Simon
Laplace in 1795. According to him, “ probability theory is
nothing but common sense reduced to calculation”.
• PROBABILITY:- The chance of happening or non happening of
an event can be measured mathematicically is called
probability.
(or)
The chance of happening any event when expressed
quantitatively is called probability.
(i) Experimental probability
(or)
Empirical probability

(ii)Theoretical probability
(or)
Classical probability
 Experimental probability
• The experimental probability based on actual experiments and the
proper recording of the happenings of the event in similar or
identical conditions.
• Experimental probability
• P(E)= Number of trials in which the event happened.
Total number of trials
The basic difference between these two probabilities is that
experimental probability is based on what has actually happened
while theoretical probability tries to predict what will happen.
It may be noted that the greater number of trials in an experiment the more closely we can expect the
experimental and theoretical probabilities to be the same.
 Theoretical
• The theoretical
as
probability probability
of an event E written as P(E) is defined

• P(E)= Number of favourable outcomes to event E

Total number of all possible outcomes to event E
If there are ‘n’ elementary events associated with a random
experiment and ‘m’ of them are favourable to an event E then the
probability of happening or occurrence of event E is denoted by P(E)
and is defined as the ratio m/n.
P(E)=m/n
0<=m<=n
0<=m/n<=1
0<=P(E)<=1
• Experiment:- An operation (or an activity) which results in some
well defined outcomes is called an experiment.
Ex:- tossing a coin at random, throwing a die etc.,
Random Experiment:- An experiment in which all the possible
outcomes are known in advance but the exact outcomes cannot be
predicted with certainly is called random experiment.
(or)
If An experiment performed many times under similar conditions the
outcomes which may or may not be the same then experiment is
called a random experiment.
Ex:- Tossing a coin is a random experiment because we cannot
predict in advance whether head will come or tail will come.
Trial:- Performing an experiment once is called a Trial.
Outcomes:- The result of a Trial is called an outcome.
Ex:- When a coin is tossed once we get a head or a tail. Here head or
tail are called outcomes or possible outcomes.
• Sample Space:- The Set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is
called sample space and is denoted by S.
• Ex:- (i). If a coin is tossed, the Sample Space S={ H, T }. n(S)=2.
(ii).If two coins are tossed then the Sample Space
S= { HH, HT, TH, TT }. n(S)=4.
(iii).If A die thrown once then the Sample Space.
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }. n(S)=6.
Note: (i). If ‘n’ is number of coins tossed then the number of possible.
outcomes =2^n
(ii). If ‘n’ is number of dice thrown then the no.of possible outcomes
=6^n
• Event:- An Event is a collection of a specific outcome or some specific
outcomes of the experiment.
(or)
The results are outcomes of observations of an experiment are called events
and are generally denoted by the capital letters like A,B, E, F...... Etc.,
Ex:- If a die is thrown once, getting an odd number be an event then the event
consists of three outcomes 1, 3, 5.
Elementary Events:- An event Is called elementary event if it has only one
outcome (member) of the given sample space.
Ex:- When a dice is thrown once the sample space S={1,2,3,4,5}.
Let A be the event of getting 5 on the top face
and B be the event of getting 2 on the top face.
Then A and B are called elementary events.
• The Sum of the probabilities of all the elementary events of an experiment is
1.
Ex:-P(H)=1/2; P(T)=1/2 then P(H)+P(T)=1/2+1/2=1.
• Compound Event: An Event is called compound event if it contains more
than one outcome (member) of the given sample space.
Ex: When a die thrown , then the event E of occurrence of a odd number
E={1,3,5}.
Occurrence of an Event: When the outcome of an experiment satisfies
the condition mentioned in the event then we say that the event has
occurred.
Equally likely events: Two or more events are said to be equally likely
events if each one of them has an equal chance of occurrence.
Two or more events which have an equal probability of occurrence or
said to be equally likely (i.e) if one of them cannot be expected in
preference to the other.
Ex: (i) When a coin is tossed there is equal chance of getting a head or a
tail.
(ii) when a die is thrown then the number appeared on the top face
(i.e)1, 2 ,3, 4, 5 or 6 or equally likely outcomes.
• Impossible Event:The Probability of an event that cannot be happen
is zero . such an event is called impossible event.
Ex: Getting 7 on the top face when a die is thrown.
Sure Event: The Probability of an event that is certain to happen is 1.
such an event is called Sure Event or Certain Event.
Ex: Getting a number <=6 when a die thrown.
Complementary Event of an event: Corresponding to every event E
associated with a random experiment , we define an event ‘not E’
which occurs when and only when E not occur. The event ‘not E’ is
called the complementary event of event E and is denoted by E.
Clearly, event E occurs if and only if E does not occur.
P(E)+P(notE)=1
P(not E)= 1-P(E).
• Mutually Exclusive events: Two or more events of an experiment
where occurrence of an event prevents occurrences of all other
events are called Mutually Exclusive events.
• Ex: Let A be an event getting an odd number and B be an event
getting an even number when a die is rolled.A{1,3,5} ; B={2,4,6}.
The even A excludes the event B and vice –versa(i.e) there is no
outcome which ensures the occurrence of both the events A and B
simultaneously.
Note : Complement events are also Mutually exclusive events.
[ The event A excludes the event not A. Hence there is nothing
common in both the events A and not A.
Exhaustive Events: Two or more events are said to be exhaustive , if
the union of their outcomes is the entire sample space.
• Die: A die is a well balanced cube with six faces marked with
numbers (dots) from 1 to 6, one number on one face.
• Cards: A pack of Cards consists of four suits. (i.e) Spades, Hearts,
Diamonds and Clubs. Each suit consists of 13 cards in these nine
numberd 2, 3, 4 ...... ,10 , an Ace, a King, a Queen and a Jack . colour of
spades and clubs is black and that of Hearts and Diamonds is red.
King , Queen and Jack are called face cards. There are three face card
in each suit and a total of 12 face cards in a normal pack of 4 suit (i.e)
52 cards.
 PROBLEMS
• 1) An unbiased die is thrown. Find the probability of getting (i) an even number
(i)an odd number (iii) a prime number (iv) a factor of 6 (v) a multiple of 3 (v) a
number between 2 and 5.
• Two unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting (i)
two heads (ii) one head (iii) one tail (iv) at least one head (v) at most one head (v)
no head.
• 3) One card is drawn from a well-shuffled Deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of
getting (i) a king of black colour (ii) a face card (iii) a red queen (iv) the jack of
spades (v) a diamond.
• 4) A bag contains 5 red balls and some Blue Balls. If the probability of drawing a
blue ball is double that of a red ball, find the number of blue balls in the bag.
• 5) A jar contains 24 marbles, some are green and other are blue. If a marble is
drawn at random from the jar, the probability that it is green is 2/3 . Find the
number of blue marbles in the jar.
• 6) (i) What is the the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain
53 Sundays?
(ii) What is the probability that a non- leap year selected at random will
contain 53 Sundays?
The possible outcomes when two dice are
thrown:
GSV