Global Auto Industry: Franklin Guo Dat Hong Rex Liu Reya Lu
Global Auto Industry: Franklin Guo Dat Hong Rex Liu Reya Lu
Auto Manufacturing History & Regulation Business Strategy & Characteristics Global Auto Supply Chain Global Auto Sales & Production Analysis Industry Future Forecast
As the 1973 oil crisis, automobile emissions control rules, Japanese and European imports, and stagnant innovation changed American industry. Small imported cars outperformed large American ones, and the domestic auto industry began to fail. Small performance cars from BMW, Toyota, and Nissan took the place of big-engined cars from America and Italy. Major M & A, alliance: GM---SAAB, Daewoo; Isuzu, Subaru, Suzuki Ford---Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo; Mazda Benz---Chrysler Renault---Nissan
Regulation History
Emission Regulation Act Since 1970, emissions from motor vehicles were regulated by Transport Canada under the authority of the Motor Vehicle Safety Act (MVSA) and it was later amended in 1993. In 1999, with the passage of the proposed amendment to the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA), automotive emissions regulations have become the responsibility of Environment Canada. In 2001, Canadian government published the Canada Gazette Part I to develop and implement services and measures over the next decade to further protect the health of Canadians and the environment by reducing emissions from vehicles, engines and fuels.
Industry Overview
Supply Chain
Auto Suppliers
lack of pricing power, high labor costs, decreasing volume and increasing raw material costs; NAFTA-only suppliers are losing market shares to global suppliers. Suppliers are trying to increase value-added content, supply systems instead of components, technology innovations, etc. Acquisitions, joint ventures, etc.
http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/bns_auto.pdf
On average, vehicles from US car makers were sold for $21,597 in 2005, which was 13% below the comparable sales price for the Japanese car makers. It was mainly due to:
Missed
The U.S. Big Three reported that pension and health cost them $1,500 per vehicle produced currently.
Interoperability Costs
Imperfect interoperability impose costs due to higher costs of design and production and slower implementation of design changes.
European production levels will grow at 2% and most of it in Central Europe, Turkey and Russia. North American growth will be coming from transplant operations of Korean, Japanese and German OEMs. China will expand its production base at an average annual rate of 12%. Exports of Chinese cars to Europe and US will commence by 2008- 2009. South America will see recovery and growth specifically in Brazil.
2004
Other 2% SA 4% NA 26%
2011
Other 2% SA 5% NA 22% Asia Pacific 40%
EU 33%
EU 31%
5.0%
6.0%
ACEA agreement is a voluntary agreement between European automobiles manufacturers association and the European Commissions. Its goal is to reduce 25% of 1995s level of vehicle CO2 emissions by 2008. Automakers are questioned for failing to deliver the emissions cut. - Japan automakers joined the agreement later and aimed to reduce 23% in vehicle CO2 emissions by 2010 (from 1995 levels). Australia: voluntary commitment to improve fuel economy by 18% by 2010. Canada: has proposed a 25% improvement in fuel economy by 2010. China: Introduced new fuel economy standards in 2004; weightbased standards to be introduced in 2 phases (2005 and 2008). California: CARB approved GHG emissions reductions for automobiles, currently under legislative review. New York: Clean Cars Bill proposing to follow California standards is currently in committee. Several other NE states have indicated they will follow CAs lead.
BMW Group
BMW Group Symbol : Common [BMW] Preferred [BMW3] Primary Exchange: Frankfurt Currency: Euro ($1 EUR = $1.27 USD)
Key Share Information:
Date: Nov. 23, 2006 Open: 44.10 Bid: N/A High: 44.36 Ask: N/A Low: 43.86 EPS: 4.23 Volume: 21,311 P/E: 10.43 52 Week 52 Week High: 45.97 Low: 35.68 Yield: 1.45% Beta: 0.80 Dividend per share: 0.64
Date: Nov. 23, 2006 Open: 44.00 Bid: N/A High: 44.04 Ask: N/A Low: 43.28 EPS: 4.23 Volume: 3,367 P/E: 10.71 52 Week 52 Week High: 45.01 Low: 31.95 Yield: 1.50% Beta: N/A Dividend per share: 0.66
Company Overview
Established in 1916, originally founded as an aircraft engine manufacturer Head offices located in Munich, Germany One of the top 10 largest vehicle manufacturers in the world Produces automobiles and motorbikes under the following premium brands:
BMW also operates successfully in the areas of financial services such as financing/leasing and asset management Conducts sales in approximately 40 international markets Has 15 production facilities spanning 7 countries Employs over 100,000 people globally
1972 - BMW ventures into South Africa and sets up first production plant outside Germany 1992 BMW ventures into North American and sets up first production plant in South Carolina 1994 BMW acquires the British based Rover Group, landing the brands Rover, Land Rover, MINI, and MG 1998 BMW acquires the Rolls-Royce brand from Volkswagen Group; however, vehicle production is prohibited until 2003 2000 BMW sells the Rover brands at a loss; however, holds onto the MINI brand 2001 BMW successfully introduces the MINI brand into the market 2003 BMW re-launches the Rolls-Royce brand with the introduction of the $330,000 USD Phantom 2004 BMW ventures into Asia and builds production plant in Shenyang, China
Company Management
Dr. Norbert Reithofer Current Chairman of the Board of Management as of September 1, 2006 Born in 1956 - 1991 - 1994 Director of the Body-in-White Production Division - 1994 - 1997 Technical Director BMW South Africa - 1997 - 2000 President BMW Manufacturing Corporation, USA (South Carolina) - 2000 - 2006 Member of the Board of Management; Production
Company Management
Dr. Helmut Panke Current Chairman of the Board of Management 2002-2006 Born in 1946 - 1976 1978 Researcher at the Swiss Institute of Nuclear Research - 1978 1982 Consultant at McKinsey & Co - 1982 1985 Head of planning & control at BMW - 1993 1995 CEO and Chairman of BMW (USA) - 2002 2006 Chairman of the Board of Management - 2006 Current member of the Board of Directors at Microsoft Education : University of Munich, B.Sc, 1968; MS, 1972; PhD, 1976
Stefan Quandt Johanna Quandt 53.4 16.7 Susanne Klatten Free Floating 12.5
STEFAN QUANT
JOHANNA QUANDT
SUSANNE KLATTEN
8.8
46.6 44.6
Europe
UK & Ireland
N. America
Rest of World
Approved by shareholders on May 12, 2005 BMW to buyback common shares up to a maximum of 10% of the company share capital By the end 2005, 13,488,400 common shares have been bought back (equivalent to 2% of the companys share capital) Average price paid per share $37.49 Approximate total cost for the share buyback program in 2005: $506 million In 2006, up to 1.5 millions shares of preferred stock will be bought back for employee stock plan
0.46
0.48
0.2
0.1
Sharp rise in crude oil prices Reduced consumer buying power and demand Elevated price of raw materials such as steel and other metals
Intense competition from Asian competitors Fluctuating currency exchange rate Large capital expenditure costs
Financial Statements
BMW Group Income Statement for the period of January 1 to September 30, 2006
BMW Group Cash Flow Statement for the period January 1 to September 30, 2006
Increasing consumer demand with by producing safer and more reliable vehicles
BMW NightVision
September 2005, BMW joins hybrid technology sharing partnership with GM and Mercedes to build gas-electric engines
Continued sales network expansion to meet the needs and demands of local consumer Continue to penetrate the dynamic Asian markets Beginning preparation to enter the Indian market Starting 2007, BMW will build a production plant in Chennai, India
Move down market and target a younger demographic with less income with the 1 series
Continued roll out of new updated versions of existing vehicle models BMW
New redesigned 3 series launched late 2005 New redesigned X5 launches late November 2006 New redesigned 7 series launches 2008
MINI
New redesigned MINI Cooper launches late November 2006
Rolls Royce
New convertible and coupe version of Phantom available late 2007
Fishers Analysis
1) Financial Skill
-
Great financial performance with increasing profits Industry product leadership Great management team; relatively good employee relationship Limited growth space due to intense competition Low industry profit margin
2) People Factor
-
3) Investment Characteristics
-
Recommendation
HOLD
Agenda
Current Financial Position Company Analysis Financial Analysis
Semi-annual
Industry: Consumer Products (Automotive) Listed: NYSE (HMC-N) TSE (7267) Share price: US $34.870 P/E: 12.00 EPS: US $2.90 Dividend: US $0.51 Yield: 1.50% # of shares outstanding: 1,834,828,000
Source: Globeinvestor.com
Source: http://money.cnn.com/
Source: Globeinvestor.com
Credit Ratings
Agencies
Moody's Investors Service Standard & Poor's Rating Services
P-1 A-1
A1 A+
Company Analysis
Overview
Over 61 principal subsidiaries ~32 manufacturing facilities in 19 countries Total of about 144,785 full-time employees
History
1948 Honda Motor Co., Ltd. incorporated (capital: 1 million yen)
1949 First motorcycle manufactured 1953 H-type engine, Hondas first power product, produced 1957 Listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange 1962 ADRs issued at market price. Adopts consolidated accounting using U.S. SEC standards 1963 Hondas first sports car (S500) and light truck (T360) released
History
1977 ADRs listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Consolidated financial disclosure begins
1983 Cumulative automobile production reaches 10 million units 1995 Cumulative automobile production reaches 30 million units 2004 Honda enter cooperative agreement with GE to jointly market the independently developed HF118 jet engine 2006 Implementation of two-for-one stock split for common shares
Corporate Governance
Corporate Governance
Takeo Fukui President, CEO, and Rep Director
An engineer Joined Honda since 1969 President since 1998 CEO since 2003
Lines of Business
Motorcycles Automobiles Power products and Others Financial services
Fields of Business
generation powertrains
on customer satisfaction
R&D Efforts
Japan
Centers
service
North America
Hondas
Europe
Increasing
Asia
China
Others
Honda
~53% from motorcycles, ~17% from automobiles, and ~30% from power products
Risk Factors
Exchange and interest rate risks Market condition/Intensity of competition Political condition Relationship with suppliers of raw materials Legal and regulatory risks
Environmental
Growth Strategies
Motorcycles
Equipping
scooters with automatic transmission Equipping more models with PGM-FI and other features that provide superior environmental performance Launching new models Offering the first motorcycles with airbags Increasing production capacity in Asia Beginning production in Argentina
Growth Strategies
Automobiles
Launching
new model of SUV and refine existing models Expanding light truck models Expanding sales and services centers in Asia to meet increasing demand Expanding production capacity to meet demand in Brazil
Growth Strategies
Power products
Supplying
cost-competitive general-purpose engines from Asia Extending sales of compact, home-use cogeneration system from Japan to the US
News
Nov. 21, 2006 2007 Honda CR-V and Pilot Earn Insurance Institute for Highway Safety TOP SAFETY PICK Award 2007 Acura RDX Earns an Insurance Institute for Highway Safety TOP SAFETY PICK Award Nov. 7, 2006 HondaJet Named Winner of Popular Science's 2006 Sept. 27, 2006 HondaJet Goes on Sale at National Business Aviation Association Convention
Financial Analysis
Financial Highlights
Financial Results
Important Factors
Fishers Analysis
Clear, easy to read annual reports and financial statement Financial statements not prepared in accordance with the US GAAP Steady increase of capital expenditure Over 30 principal manufacturing facilities About 145,000 full-time employees ~5% of total revenue used toward R&D
People Factor
Experienced management team Promote from within CEO is customer-oriented Executives and managers make up the board of directors, this may decrease the effectiveness of corporate governance and increase risk for stakeholders
P/E Ratio
P/E ratio: 12.00 Competitor P/E ratios:
General
Motors: 40.00 BMW: 10.43 Ford Motors: 0.00 (negative EPS) Toyota: 14.70 Nissan: 0.00 (0 EPS)
Recommendation
BUY
General Motors
Table of Contents
Income
Industry: Ticker Symbol: Share Price: 52 week range: P/E: EPS: Dividend: Shares Outstanding: Market Capital:
Global Automobile GM-N (NYSE) $31.23 $18.33 - 36.56 40.00 $0.78 $1 (3.2%) 565,611,157 $20,096,164,408
(from bigcharts.com)
(from bigcharts.com)
Globeinvestor.com
Definitions
GMA GM Auto
GMNA - GM North America GME - GM Europe GMLAAM - GM Latin America / Africa / Mid-East GMAP - GM Asia Pacific
Background
The world's largest automaker Founded in 1908 Global industry sales leader for 75 years GM today employs 327,000 people in the world
Global headquarters in Detroit, Michigan, USA GM manufactures its cars and trucks in 33 countries
GMs Products
In 2005, 9.17 million GM cars and trucks were sold globally under the following brands:
Buick Cadillac Chevrolet GMC GM Daewoo Holden HUMMER Opel
Pontiac
Saab Saturn Vauxhall
GMAC Financial Services, which offers automotive, residential and commercial financing and insurance.
GMA & GMAC Revenue Share - Nine months ended September 30, 2006
GMAC 17% Other Auto 1% Other Financ ing 0%
Global Partnerships
Toyota Suzuki Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. of China AVTOVAZ of Russia Renault SA of France
Management
Key people
Joined GM since 1977 BA in economics from Duke University MBA from Harvard Business School
Joined GM since 1984 BBA from the University of Michigan MBA from Harvard Business School
Robert A. Lutz
Former CEO of Excide Technologies & Vice Chairman of Chrysler Corporation BA in production management from the University of California-Berkeley MBA from the University of California-Berkeley Degree of doctor of management from Kettering University
the United States China Canada the United Kingdom and Germany.
Declining Revenue
High oil price GM produce high horse power vehicles
Competitive Position
Segment Reporting
GMA Revenue Share by Region - Nine months ended September 30, 2006
GM LAAM 8% GMAP 9%
GMNA
GME
GM LAAM
GMAP
GM is losing big money in North America GMAs global sales revenue is good (growth) GMAC is making money We can see that the auto division is dragging the company performance
Financial Highlights
(In USD as of 12/31/2005)
Total Revenue EBITDA Net Loss Total Assets Current Assets Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Stockholders' Equity
Huge retiree population Huge cost for health care & pensions 11.5 active employees support 1 retiree in 1962 1 active employee supports 3.2 retirees in 2005 Health care bills totaled $5.3 billion in 2005 No other company has this much health-care obligation
Net sales fell to $192.6 billion from 193.5 billion Net loss of $10.6 billion from Net income of $2.8 billions Unfavorable results primarily due to losses at GMNA GMAC net income declined to $2.4 from $3.0 billion
Revenue declining GM recorded a charge of $5.5 billion Including the benefit guarantees for certain former GM U.S. employees who transferred to Delphi
Reduced in demand for higher margin large utility vehicles (reaching the end of the life cycle)
Unfavorable material costs ($700 mil. loss) Increased health-care expenses ($600 mil. loss)
Advertising and sales promotion cost increase ($500 mil. loss) Restructuring charge ($1.7 b. loss) After-tax impairment charge ($552 mil. loss)
Keep raising the bar in the execution of great cars and trucks
Revitalize sales and marketing strategy Significantly improve cost competitiveness
Cease production at 12 U.S. plans by 2008 Reduce 30,000 manufacturing positions Work with United Auto Workers to reduce health-care obligations by $15 billion Modify pension benefits Reduce salaries of top executives Reduce dividend by 50%
GM Profitability Plan
Significant Events
Delphi Bankruptcy
GM-Fishers Analysis
1) Financial Skill
2) People Factor
3) Investment Characteristics
4) Investment Price
Recommendation