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CH17 Mock Test

1) The document contains a mock test with 9 multiple choice questions related to quantitative methods. It provides data, formulas, and step-by-step solutions for estimating probabilities, means, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. 2) Question 1 analyzes helmet usage data from a survey to estimate probabilities. Question 2 uses a binomial distribution to calculate likelihoods related to lie detector tests. 3) The remaining questions cover topics like the Poisson distribution, the normal distribution, hypothesis testing, and estimating population parameters from sample data. Formulas and calculations are shown to arrive at the answers.

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159 views11 pages

CH17 Mock Test

1) The document contains a mock test with 9 multiple choice questions related to quantitative methods. It provides data, formulas, and step-by-step solutions for estimating probabilities, means, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. 2) Question 1 analyzes helmet usage data from a survey to estimate probabilities. Question 2 uses a binomial distribution to calculate likelihoods related to lie detector tests. 3) The remaining questions cover topics like the Poisson distribution, the normal distribution, hypothesis testing, and estimating population parameters from sample data. Formulas and calculations are shown to arrive at the answers.

Uploaded by

nageswara_mutyala
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MBA ZC417

Mock Test

Dr Shekhar Rajagopalan

Chap 7
MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 1 BITS-Pilani
Question 1

NOPUS was conducted by sending observers to randomly selected sites to collect data on
the usage of DOT-compliant helmets by motorcyclists. Following table presents the data.
Type of Helmet
Region DOT-Complaint Non-Compliant
Northeast 96 62
Midwest 86 43
South 92 49
West 76 16
Suppose a motorcyclist is selected at random.
A. Estimate the probability that the motor-cyclist wears a DOT-Compliant helmet
B. What is the probability the motor-cyclist is DOT-Complaint given he is from NE
C. What is the probability the motor-cyclist is from NE given he is DOT-Complaint

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 2 BITS-Pilani


Solution

Type of Helmet
Region DOT-Complaint Non-Compliant TOTAL
Northeast 96 62 158
Midwest 86 43 129
South 92 49 141
West 76 16 92
TOTAL 350 170 520

A. 350/520
B. 96/158
C. 96/350
MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 3 BITS-Pilani
Question 2

A report finds that lie detector tests given to truthful persons have probability about 0.2 of
suggesting that the person is deceptive. A company asks 12 job applicants about thefts from
previous employers, using a lie detector to assess their truthfulness. Suppose all 12 answer
truthfully.
What is the probability that the lie detector says at least 1 is deceptive?
What is the mean number among 12 truthful persons who will be classified as deceptive?
What is the standard deviation of this number?

X = # of persons identified by the lie detector as deceptive


X ~ B(12, 0.2)
P(X >= 1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 12 0
(0.2) 0(0.8)12 =

m = np = 2.4; s = (npq) = (12*.2*.8) = 1.92 =

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 4 BITS-Pilani


Question 3

Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6 per
hour on weekend evenings. What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a
weekend evening?

m = 6/hour = 3/half-hour, X ~ Poisson(3)


34 3
P( X = 4) = = 0.1680
4!

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 5 BITS-Pilani


Question 4

A radar unit is used to measure speeds of cars on a motorway. The speeds are
normally distributed with a mean of 90 km/hr and a standard deviation of 10
km/hr. What is the probability that a car picked at random is travelling at more
than 100 km/hr?

X: Speed of a car
X ~ N(90, 10)
P(X > 100) = P(Z > (100 90)/10) = P(Z > 1) = 0.158

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 6 BITS-Pilani


Question 5

A sample of 5 weeks of sales was collected. Develop a point estimate for m and s. If
successful week is defined as sales over 95, estimate the percentage of successful
weeks Week 1 2 3 4 5
Sales 94 100 85 94 92

Week Sales (X) X - 93 (X - 93)2


1 94 1 1
Point Estimate for
2 100 7 49
m: is 93
3 85 -8 64
s: is (116/4) = 5.39
4 94 1 1
p: is 1/5 = 20%
5 92 -1 1
SUM 465 0 116
AVG 93

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 7 BITS-Pilani


Question 6

Discount Sounds has 260 retail outlets throughout the United States. The firm is evaluating a potential
location for a new outlet, based in part, on the mean annual income of the individuals in the marketing area of
the new location. A sample of size n = 36 was taken; the sample mean income is $41,400. The population
standard deviation is estimated to be $4,500, and a 95% confidence interval is desired.

Point Estimate of m: 41,400


Std Error of the Mean: 4500/36 = 4500/6 = 750

Sampling Distribution: ~ N(0, 1)
750
For a 95% CI, Margin of Error: 1.96*750 = 1470
95% CI: (41400-1470, 41400+1470) = (39930, 42870)

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 8 BITS-Pilani


Question 7
Political Science, Inc. (PSI) specializes in voter polls and surveys designed to keep political
office seekers informed of their position in a race. Using random surveys, PSI interviewers ask
registered voters who they would vote for if the election were held that day. In a current state
election campaign, PSI has just found that 220 registered voters, out of 500 contacted, favor a
particular candidate. PSI wants to develop a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of the population of registered voters that favor the candidate.

Point Estimate of p: 220/500 = 0.44



0.440.56
Estimate for Std Error of p: = = 0.0222
500
Np = 500*,44 = 220 >= 5 & nq = 500*.56 = 280 >= 5. Hence

Sampling Distribution: ~ N(0, 1)
0.0222
For a 95% CI, Margin of Error: 1.96*.0222 = 0.0435
95% CI: (40%, 48%)
MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 9 BITS-Pilani
Question 8
The service goal of the EMS is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or
less. The response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes. The EMS
director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of significance, to determine whether the
service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.

The hypotheses: H0: m < 12 Vs Ha: m > 12


Data: n = 40, = 13.25m, s = 3.2m, a = 5%
Right-Tail Test (or Upper Tail Test)


12
Sampling Distribution: Since n 30, = ~ N(0, 1)
3.2/ 40
13.25 12
Test Statistic: = 2.47
3.2/ 40
p value: P(Z > 2.47) = 1 0.9932 = 0.0068
Since p-value = 0.0068 < a = .05, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting the response goal of 12
minutes.
MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 10 BITS-Pilani
Question 9

The national Safety Council claimed that 50% of the accidents would be caused by drunk
driving. A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were caused by drunk driving. Use these
data to test the NSCs claim at 5% significance level.

The hypotheses: H0: p = 0.5 Vs Ha: p 0.5


Data: n = 120, = 67/120 = 0.56, a = 5%
Two-Tail Test


0.5
np = 60 & nq = 60 5. So, Sampling Distribution: = ~ N(0,1)
0 (10 ) 0.50.5
120
0.56 0.5
Test Statistic: = 1.3158
0.0456
p value: 2*P(Z > 1.32) = 2*0.0934 = 0.1868
Since p-value > a, do not reject H0

MBA ZC417 Q UAN TI TA TIV E M ETHODS 11 BITS-Pilani

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