Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM)

• What is ADM and why is it so important?

• How can I apply ADM principles to my flying?
 OBJECTIVES…
1. Define ADM and discuss why it’s important.
2. List the steps needed for effective ADM and
identify some dangerous tendencies to avoid
including the “Five Hazardous Attitudes.”
3. Provide you some tools for assessing and
managing risk including some commonly used
FAA memory aids that frame the process.
4. Apply risk assessment skills to an actual scenario
using a “Flight Risk Assessment Tool” or FRAT.
5. Discuss use of a personal minimums checklist.
 ADM References
• FAA-H-8083-25 “Pilot’s Handbook of
Aeronautical Knowledge” –Chapter 2 (2016)
• FAA-H-8083-2 “Risk Management Handbook”
• FAA Advisory Circular – AC 60-22 (2001)
“Aeronautical Decision Making”
• AOPA Air Safety Institute-Safety Advisor
“Do the Right Thing-Decision Making for Pilots”
 What is ADM?
“ADM is a systematic approach to the mental
processes used by pilots to consistently
determine the best course of action in response
to a given set of circumstances.” (FAA PHAK)

AOPA – “The goal of ADM is simple: doing the

right thing at the right time” and “good decision
making is about avoiding the circumstances that
lead to really tough choices.”
 Why is ADM important
• 28 questions in the FAA bank of test questions
• ADM is the core emphasis of the new “Airman
Certification Standards” (ACS)
• 80% (or more) of all aviation accidents have a
root cause related to one or more human
errors, most involving a mistake in judgement
or decision making. No human is immune
from error. An accident can happen to anyone.
• ADM is absolutely essential for your survival.
 What influences our decisions?
Our background or cultural values can drive up our risk
tolerance or lead to “normalization of deviance.”
Our decisions may be driven by good and
valid intentions to accomplish a goal.

Accidents often
happen to people who were
doing what made perfect logical
sense in a given circumstance or
moment in time. (Sidney Dekker)
 Steps needed for effective ADM
1. Identify personal attitudes hazardous to safe flight
(honest self assessment).
2. Learn behavior modification techniques (check
your attitude and change your mindset).
3. Recognize and manage stress or external pressure
4. Use all available resources (CRM and SRM)
5. Evaluate the effectiveness of your ADM skills.
 Dangerous Traps to Avoid
• Peer Pressure (to meet passenger expectations)
• “Get-there-itis”
• Bad moods and mindsets (anger, frustration,
impatience, being hurried, and other distractions)
• Scud-running and VFR flight into IMC
• Loss of positional or situational awareness
• Flight with inadequate fuel reserves
• Knowingly exceeding aircraft limitations or FARs
• Poor flight planning, pre-flight, or use of checklists
 Five Hazardous Attitudes
(and the appropriate antidote)
1. Anti-Authority – follow the rules, there is a
good reason for them, they are usually right.
2. Impulsivity – Not so fast, think about it first.
3. Invulnerability – It could happen to me.
4. Macho – Taking chances is foolish, not worth
paying the ultimate price if it doesn’t work.
5. Resignation – I am not helpless, I can make a
difference in the outcome. Be decisive.
Are my actions influenced by any of
these hazardous attitudes?
 Defining the terminology of RISK
• A HAZARD is a real or perceived condition, event,
or circumstance that has potential to inflict harm
or cause damage, or a source of danger.
• RISK is the future impact of a hazard if it is not
reduced, eliminated, or controlled.
• A Risk ASSESSMENT is a measure of risk based on
the probability and the severity of each hazard.
(Refer to the four color matrix in these examples.)
How do I measure the risk associated
with hazards like these?
 To effectively assess risk….
• Evaluate hazards at face value (pre-mitigation)
• Base your assessment on your own personal
knowledge, skill, and experience. If you don’t have
the knowledge, ask an expert. (i.e. ask a mechanic
about unfamiliar aircraft mechanical concerns.)
• Avoid personal biases as much as possible.
• Find objective middle ground that is neither
overly optimistic nor “alarmist.”
• DON’T OVER-ANALYZE numbers and definitions.
 Example #1:
Assess the Hazard “Mid-Air Collision”
Severity is almost always CATASTROPHIC
Probability could vary from “occasional” to
“remote” or “improbable” depending on
circumstances such as the time and location of a
flight and your own knowledge or experience.

Using the risk assessment matrix we determine

the overall RISK can be MEDIUM to HIGH.
 Example #2:
Hazard: Inadvertent VFR flight into IMC
Task: Assess the LIKELIHOOD and SEVERITY of this
Hazard, and determine the OVERALL RISK RATING.
Your assessment will depend on these factors:
1. What kind of flight are you planning? (i.e. a cross
country or landings in the local traffic pattern?)
2. Are you planning to fly in the daytime or at night?
3. What do the current weather reports and forecasts
indicate? (Radar, Temp/Dew point, cloud ceilings
and visibility at nearby airports, etc.)
 Risk Controls and Mitigation
• Using the Risk Management Worksheet,
determine and document several mitigations to
reduce the risk of “inadvertent VFR flight into IFR
weather conditions.”
• Then, reassess the expected probability and
severity AFTER control measures are
implemented.
 Suggested Mitigations for Hazard
“Inadvertent VFR flight into IMC”
• Check weather reports and forecasts.
• Establish and stick to personal minimums (examples...)
– As a new pilot, on local daytime flights, I won’t fly unless
visibility is reported as being at least 5 miles, and the
ceiling greater than 2,000 ft. at HIO, UAO, and MMV.
– For cross country flights or night flights, I will not go
unless the ceiling is reported/forecast to remain at least
3000’ with visibility greater than 6 miles along my route,
with a Temp/DP spread greater than 5 deg. Celsius
– Identify alternate airports. Have a Plan B strategy for
any flight in case conditions change.
 Flight Risk Assessment
• Consider and rate numerous hazards in each of
the FOUR categories of the P.A.V.E. model.

– Pilot
– Aircraft
– EnVironment
– External factors
(Note: Some factors exist in multiple categories.)
 PAVE Model: Pilot
• Start with the “IMSAFE” checklist, then consider:
– Overall experience, currency, and proficiency
– Skill in the expected environment and conditions
– Experience in the aircraft make/model, configuration,
systems, etc.
– Personal level of confidence and overall tendency to
accept or tolerate risk vs. approach life with
conservative caution. (When does this cross the line and
become a “hazardous attitude?”)
Effective Pilot assessment requires humble honesty
 PAVE model: Aircraft
• Performance and capability (vs. conditions)
• Complexity (vs. your skill and experience)
• Weight and Balance
• Fuel capacity (vs. fuel requirement for a flight)
• Navigation and flight instruments, equipment,
internal and external lighting (capability of the
aircraft equipment and pilot using it.)
• Aircraft condition, overall maintenance
 PAVE model: enVironment
• Weather: clouds, ceiling, visibility, stability,
precipitation, temperature/dew point, surface
wind and winds aloft, turbulence, DA, etc.
• Physical environment: mountains, coastal,
airport and runway characteristics and
condition, wires and towers,, traffic
congestion, cockpit noise, etc.
• Airspace: FAA class of airspace, TFRs,
NOTAMs, ATC services and requirements, etc.
 PAVE model: External Factors
• Pressure or expectations from passengers
• Deadlines for arrival or return flight
• Self-imposed pressure to perform to a
standard, expectation, or requirement.
• Home, family, life, financial, or job stress.
• Physiological stress or demands.
• Distractions, task workload, multi-tasking.
• Underlying motivations behind the flight
 FRAT practical exercise
• Given a scenario, score each of the criteria
shown using either the GAR or FRAT
worksheet. Determine the overall risk level.
• Assume you are a new Private Pilot and you
are taking a 175 lb. friend to an airport on the
Oregon coast as your first passenger in either
the Cessna 150 or 172 (whichever you prefer)
that you flew throughout your training.
Case Study: What happened?
What errors in ADM led to this?
 NTSB Report WPR09CA193
Summary: Event date/time/location: Apr. 13, 2009, 3:10
pm; Location was near Dubois, WY.
• Pilot crossed a mountain pass at 700-1000 AGL and
encountered a strong downdraft in the vicinity of some
cliffs. He attempted to maintain altitude with full power
and 85 mph airspeed, but the aircraft continued to lose
altitude. The 2 occupants suffered minor injuries.
• NTSB probable cause: Pilot encountered
windshear/downdraft that exceeded the climb
performance capability of the airplane.
• No findings of any mechanical deficiencies.
• Density Altitude was calculated as being 9,200 ft. at the
time and location of the accident.
 PAVE category findings
Pilot: 32 yr. old male, Private pilot certificate, 120 total
hours logged, 21 hours in the make/model, current class 3
medical certificate. VFR XC flight plan filed from Casper, WY
to Idaho Falls, ID.
Aircraft: Piper PA-28-140. 150 hp. Lycoming O-320
No information given on estimated aircraft weight or fuel
qty. on board at the time of the accident, but neither fuel
contamination or starvation were stated as factors.
Environment: Nearest Airport (JAC) located 39 miles south
at 6,145 ft. reported a Temp. of 7 deg. C. Wind 170 @ 18
kts., ceiling 4,800 AGL.
External (Human) Factors: nothing stated in report.
Final thoughts
or Questions?