Chapter 5

Some Discrete
Probability
Distributions

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Section 5.2
Binomial and
Multinomial
Distributions

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bernoulli Process

• We make trials, the result of each trial is success

or failure.
• Example:
– A coin flipped results in head or tails
– An election candidate wins or loses
– An employee is male or female

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5-3
Binomial Experiment (Sampling
with replacement)
• Bernoulli trials
• there are n trials ( n is finite and fixed)
• The probability of success is p and the same for
all trials
• The probability of failure is q=1-p
• All the trials of experiment are independent
• Binomial random variable :counts the number of
successes in n trials.
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.
5-4
Binomial Prob. Dist. (n=3)

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5-5
Binomial Prob. Dist.

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5-6
Example

• Ebru is registered in Ceng 235 and has a quiz. The quiz

consists on 10 multiple choice questions with 5
possible choices for each question, only one of which is
the correct answer.
• Find the following probabilities:
– Ebru gets no answer correct
– Ebru gets two answers correct
– Ebru fails the quiz (# of correct answers is less than 5)

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5-7
• An answer can be either correct or incorrect
• There is a fixed number of trails (n=10)
• Each answer is independent of others
• The prob. p of a correct answer (0.20) doesn’t
change from question to question
• Let X : the number of correct answers

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5-8
•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5-9
Example

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 10
Theorem 5.1

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 - 11

Example

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 12
Multinomial Distribution

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 13
Example

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 14
Example

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 15
Example

•  

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 16
Section 5.3
Hypergeometric
Distribution

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hypergeometric

• N sampled individuals
• Each individual can be characterized as a
success or failure and there are M successes in
population
• A sample of n individuals is selected without
replacement in such a way that each subset of
size n is equally likely to be chosen

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 18
Example

• There are 2 black and 8 white balls in a basket.

We randomly choose 3. What is the prob. That
all are white?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 19
Example

• There are 2 black and 8 white balls in a basket.

We randomly choose 3. What is the prob. That
all are white?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 20
In general

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 21
Example

• A lot contain 40 component. We test 5 randomly

chosen element and reject the lot if one is
defective. What is the prob. That exactly one
defective is found assuming there are 3 total
defectives?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 22
Theorem 5.2

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 - 23

Example

There are 500 students in a CENG department. 150 use Linux and rest
use Windows on their personal computers. We randomly choose 7
students. What is the probability that 4 of them use Linux?
a)Use Hypergeometric b)Use Binomial

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 24
Example

1) Of the cars in the parking lot, 13 are using diesel uel and 37
gasoline. We randomly choose 10. What is the probability that 5 are
using diesel?
2) Of the 500 people working at a hospital, 220 are female and 280 are
male. We randomly choose 10. What is the probability that 5 are
female?
3) If you had to solve one of the above problems using an
approximation, which one would you choose?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 25
Section 5.4
Negative
Binomial and
Geometric
Distributions

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Negative Binomial Distribution

• The probability of success is constant from trial

to trial so P(S on trial i)= p
• r th success occur in x th trial
• X is # of failures it takes to achieve r successes

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 27
Negative Binomial Distribution

•  r th success occur in x th trial

The average number of trails until r th success is:

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 28
Example

• In NBA championship, the team that wins four

games of seven is the winner. Suppose that team
A has prob. 0.55 of winning the game over team
B.
a) What is the prob. that team A will win the
series in 6th games?
b) What is the prob. that team A will win the
series?
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.
5 - 29
Example

•  In NBA championship, the team that wins four games of seven is
the winner. Suppose that team A has prob. 0.55 of winning the
game over team B.
a) What is the prob. that team A will win the series in 6th games?
b) What is the prob. that team A will win the series?

a) nb(6;4, 0.55)==0.1853

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 30
Example

•  In NBA championship, the team that wins four games of seven is
the winner. Suppose that team A has prob. 0.55 of winning the
game over team B.
a) What is the prob. that team A will win the series in 6th games?
b) What is the prob. that team A will win the series?
c) nb(6;4, 0.55)==0.1853
2nd way if we want the 4 success in 6th,
team must win 3 in the 5th with a success in 6 th

x 0.55

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 31
Example

•  In NBA championship, the team that wins four games of seven is
the winner. Suppose that team A has prob. 0.55 of winning the
game over team B.
a) What is the prob. that team A will win the series in 6th games?
b) What is the prob. that team A will win the series?

c) nb(6;4, 0.55)==0.1853
d) nb(4;4,0.55)+ nb(5;4,0.55)+ nb(6;4,0.55)+ nb(7;4,0.55)=0.6083

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 32
Geometric Distribution

• If repeated independent trials can result in a

success with probability p and a failure with
probability q = 1-p then the probability
distribution of the random variable X, the
number of the trial on which the first success
occurs is
g(x;p) = p qx-1 , x = 1, 2 ,3 …

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 33
Example

• For a certain manufacturing process, on the

average, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What
is the probability that is the probability that the
fifth item inspected is the first defective item
found?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 34
Example

• For a certain manufacturing process, on the

average
, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What is
the probability that is the probability that the
fifth item inspected is the first defective item
found?
g(5;0.01) = (0.01)(0.99)4 = 0.0096

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 35
Theorem 5.3

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 - 36

Section 5.5
Poisson
Distribution and
the Poisson
Process

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poisson Distribution

• # of successes that occur in a certain time

interval is independent of the # of successes that
occur in another time interval
• The probability of success in a certain time
interval is
– The same for all time intervals of the same size z_i
– Proportional to the length of interval.

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 38
Poisson Distribution

• Poisson
  Random Variable, X
• X indicates # of successes that occur during a
given time interval or in a specific region in a
Poisson experiment

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 39
Theorem 5.4

  is the average of # of outcomes per

unit time, distance, etc.

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 - 40

Example

• The number of typographical errors in new editions of

textbooks is Poisson distributed with a mean of 1.5 per
100 pages
• 100 pages of a new book are randomly selected.
a) What is the prob. That there are no typos?
b) For a 400 page book, calculate the followings:
• There are no typos
• There are five or fewer typos

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 41
 0.2231
0.2231

Example

•• The number of typographical errors in new editions of textbooks is Poissom

 distributed with a mean of 1.5 per 100 pages
• 100 pages of a new book are randomly selected.
a) What is the prob. That there are no typos?
=0.2231
b) For a 400 page book, calculate the followings:
• There are no typos
• There are five or fewer typos

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 42
 0.2231
0.2231

Example

• The
• number of typographical errors in new editions of textbooks is Poissom distributed with a
 mean of 1.5 per 100 pages
• 100 pages of a new book are randomly selected.
a) What is the prob. That there are no typos?
=0.2231
b) For a 400 page book, calculate the followings:
• There are no typos
• There are five or fewer typos

100 pages 1.5 then 400 pages ?

=
4457

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 43
Figure 5.1 Poisson density
functions for different means

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 - 44

Theorem 5.5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 - 45

Example

• Births in a hospital occur randomly at an

average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– What is the probability of observing 4 births in a
given hour at the hospital?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 46
Example

• Births
  in a hospital occur randomly at an
average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– What is the probability of observing 4 births in a
given hour at the hospital?
po(4,1.8) = =.0723

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 47
Example

• Births in a hospital occur randomly at an

average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– What is the probability of observing more than or
equal to 2 births in a given hour at the hospital

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 48
Example

• Births
  in a hospital occur randomly at an
average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– What is the probability of observing more than or
equal to 2 births in a given hour at the hospital?
– Po(xPo(x=+Po(x

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 49
Example

• Births
  in a hospital occur randomly at an
average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– What is the probability of observing more than or
equal to 2 births in a given hour at the hospital?
– Po(xPo(x=+Po(x
– Po(x1-(Po(x=0Po(x)=0.537

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 50
Example

• Births in a hospital occur randomly at an

average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– Hospital A average rate 2.3 births per hours
– Hospital B average rate 3.1 births per hours
What is the probability of observing 7 births in total?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 51
Example

• Births
  in a hospital occur randomly at an
average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
– Hospital A average rate 2.3 births per hours
– Hospital B average rate 3.1 births per hours
What is the probability of observing 7 births in total?
and then +
P(X+Y=7)= = =0.11999

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 52
Example

• On average, there are 25 flights per day from

airport A. Find the probability that there are
between 20 and 22 flights on a given day.

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 53
Example

• On
  average, there are 25 flights per day from
airport A. Find the probability that there are
between 20 and 22 flights on a given day.

In R:

ppois(22,25)-ppois(19,25)

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 - 54