Trend Forecasting Process

FMD 451
Fashion Forecasting
 The creative process that can be
understood, practiced, and applied by
anyone who has the tools.
 Need to have a balanced view that seeks
out new styles breaking the cultural edge,
and the reality of changing demographics,
identifies the fad, and the long wave of
change.
 Uses: product planning, gain market share,
position products against competitors,
shape collections, style directions, color and
textiles directions, ect.
Steps in developing a forecast
1. ID the facts about past trends/forecasts
2. Determine cause of change in the past
3. Look at differences between past
forecasts and consumer behavior
4. Identify factors likely to affect future trends
5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques
accurately.
6. Follow the forecast continually- see if
expectations deviate
7. Revise the forecast when necessary.
Forecasting Specialties
 Long term forecasts- 5 or more years
 Short term forecasts- more than one
year ahead.
Forecasting Scans--
Media Scan
1. Fashion scans- follow latest fashion and
lifestyle trends: visit Fashion capitals, scan
media, network with people in the creative
fields (arts, entertainment, interior design,
cosmetics, and architecture.
2. Consumer Scans- Consumer
segmentation (you already did), point of
sale data (retailers and manufactures).
Fashion scan + consumer scan= fashion
analysis- what will happen next!
Do your research!
Media Scan:
Trend ID, analysis and synthesis
 Soak up news that 4. Internet- Popular
relates to change! Culture (world wide):
1. National newspaper- coolhunter
Wall Street Journal,
New York Times 5. Watch past fashion
2. Trade papers- WWD, shows
California Apparel 6. Take a trip to popular
News, Advertising Age shopping venues,
3. Fashion and Lifestyle fashionable
magazines( food, neighborhoods.
travel, home décor,
health, gossip, 7. Pop Culture: movies,
political, buisness, music, TV, books,
science, men’s and theater, art.
womens)
Media Scan:
Trend ID, analysis and synthesis
 Collect bits and pieces from a broad spectrum
of sources.
 Link signals, shape them into a vision of what
the future may be.
 Pay attention to:
1. New and unusual business
2. Innovative and novel products
3. Unusual travel destinations
4. New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure activities.
5. New shopping locations,store designs, services.
6. Stories about people and their adjustment to life’s
challenges.
7. Neighborhoods with interesting mix of people, shopping
or ethnic cultures.
Media Scan:
Trend ID, analysis and synthesis
 Collect information( folders), organize it into
a list of themes, issues, ideas, that capture
your attention.
 Trends require a label!
 Start general and become specific!
-general examples: new music, financial
issues, cult movies, unusual jobs
- specific examples: “cyberstyle”,
“GenNesters”, “Asian Influence”
*Once the trend begins to emerge, think about
how the trend relates to a specific product
category or target market.
Media Scan:
Trend ID, analysis and synthesis
Ideas for Project 2: Media scan
 Trend folders
 Cite all resources used
 You should address all parts of the media
scan.
 Summarize what your found- Pick 10
major topics/broad categories(20 sources
in each) Index them in your paper with
sources and images. Summarize in your
paper.
Describe the Zeitgeist-
“ The Spirit of the Times”
 Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is
created and worn.
 Fashion responds to what is modern, all cultural
components respond to the spirit of the times.
 The Zeitgeist covers all product categories.
 Media reports culture but is also shaped by it.
 Lifecycles are associated with the Zeitgeist.
 “An expression of modernity, of the current
state of culture, of the incipient and
unarticulated tastes of the consuming public.”
Zeitgeist
 Next generation-  Changes in the
Tweens 8-12, looking marketplace:
to computer games 1. New fashion- seasonal
and Japanese comic to continuous
books for inspiration. 2. Lack of design
 Pay attention to: Style leadership
interactions between 3. Rules for
apparel, cuisine, appropriateness relaxed
sports, architecture, 4. Consumers declared
interiors, automobiles, independence
toys, avocations, 5. Emergence of No
pastimes, and play. fashion-casual Friday,
ect.
6. Cheap chic
7. Fast fashion
Fashion History Research-
Describe the following:
 Designer’s signature style, ex. Tom Ford
1990’s
 Style leader- Jacqueline Kennedy- 1960’s
 A fashion look- Flapper look 1920’s
 Bohemian element- The hippies, hip hop
 Market segment middle class 1950’s
 Celebrity Icon- Madonna material girl-
1980’s
 Model- Twiggy 1960’s
 Fiber/fabric- Chanel Jersey
Timeline
Research
 Describe- what is shaping the trend,
 Why has the trend developed
 Who is leading the trend.
 Look to past designs- Cyclical nature
of fashion!
 Analyze the trends that affect your
target market.
Forecast for 2010! Color
 Color Story- combined into prints,
fabrics, all areas usually 200 pieces
per collection.
 Work 18-24 months in advance
 Color Association of the United States
 Psychology of color- color
preferences.
 Separate for men, women, interiors,
youth.
Words used in color
 Hue- the color name
 Saturation/ chroma- intensity, strength
of color,
 Value- lightness or darkness of a
color.
 Tint- white added
 Shade- black added
 Tone- Grey added
 Examples: concentrated, deep,
subdue, clear.
Color Marketing- Name
 Name a color with imagination, should be
able to be used across product categories,
understand your customer’s perception of
the colors. You want to depict a mood!
 Examples from the environment:
 Natural phenomena sky, sunshine, grass green.
 Flora- poppy red, moss green, orchid
 Fauna- flamingo pink, robin egg blue
 Gemstones- amber, copper
 Food and drink- caramel, champagne,
 Spices- paprika, curry red
 Dyes- indigo
 Building materials- adobe, terra cotta, bronze
 Locations- Capri blue
Color Cycles
 High chroma-- multi colored--subdue colors--
earth tones-- achromatic colors (black, white,
grey)--purple.
 Look at your media scan--- what did you see-
colors celebrities were wearing, locations,
music covers, interiors, museum exhibits, toys,
electronics, food, graphics, ect. What is selling
in stores?!
 May be done in house or use a professional
color system like PANTONE.
 Images will help you describe color choices.
 Predict 4-7 colors per direction.
 Think about season- weather, temperature
Textiles
 Overall style: botanical, romantic, folkloric
 Interpretation- realistic, abstract, geometric.
 Scale- small vs large scale motifs
 Figure ground relationship- blank space vs.
crowded patterns
 Reference to art styles Art Deco
 Complexity
 Cultural reference- Asian inspired, African motifs
 Historic references- time periods
 Color story- sherbet colors, tropical, brights with
Neutral.
 Motifs- golf, seashell, animal print.
The Look: Design
 The totality of the look:  Fit- body hugging, loose
minimalist, feminine,  Details- collar, pocket,
sexy redifined. sleeve, cuff
 Theme or Mood: gothic  Exaggeration in details.
romanticisim  Trims- beading,
 Swing of fashion feathers, lace
pendulum- flared to  Findings- button,
narrow zippers, snaps
 Proportions of pieces-  Fabric type- woven,
placement of waistline knits,
 Silhouette- tubular,  Fabric finishing- dyeing,
hourglass, wedge abrasion
 Point of emphasis-  Specific fabrics-
shoulders, bust, waist transparent, velvet, ect.
Semiotics
 The science of 6. Avant-Garde
analyzing culture 7. Modernity
as a system of
signs. 8. Postmodern
 Visual concepts:
1. Referencing the
past
2. Ethnic sources
3. Sexuality
4. Sports
5. Appropriateness-
“uptown chic”
Trends
 Mega Trend- restructuring of culture
affects all industries ex. Eco friendly
 Major Trend- broad public appeal
 Minor Trend- limited or small appeal.
Only refers to a specialized group of
consumers.
 Describe potential of trend, how long it
will last, interaction with other trends.
Trend Reporting; Label the
trend
 Look- retro, Japanese influence
 Mood or spirit- youthful, playful
 Lifestyle message
 Tie in with celebrity
 Target Market- urban youth
 Brand image
 Concept- career casual
 Source of inspiration- Moroccan
 Pop culture influence
Forecasting Traps
 Time, limitations, assumptions
 Lack of imagination, research, insight
 Excessive Optimism
 Hidden Agendas, wish fulfillment vs. reality
 Two sides of the coin- trend and countertrend
 Generation gap
 Overlapping trends- sectors
 Fad vs. Trend
 Don’t oversell.
 See Appendix for resources
(Mudpie.co.uk, WGSN)