GCC + Oic (Noa)
GCC + Oic (Noa)
How has the apathetic role of Arab countries complicated the issue of Palestine?
2001
Analyze the role of OIC in the resolution of problems faced by its members –
2002
What are the ground realities inhibiting the capacity of Organization of Islamic
conference as an effective body to protect the legitimate interests of Muslim
world? 2003
Current Palestinian situation and the Arab neighbors. 2003
In the Muslim Societies factors like justice, rejuvenation, education and
enlightenment, which determine the conditions of human societies are miserable
lacking. Analyze the problems confronting the Muslim world in the light of this
statement 2005
The organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) has not played and effective role in
protecting the rights of member states. How can it become a vibrant
organization to achieve its objectives? 2007
Past Current Affairs Papers
The ongoing anti blasphemy campaign launched by Muslims all over the world
and the West's obduracy not to yield on the issue in the name of freedom of
press has put the two on a collision. What role the UN and the OIC can play to
prevent recurrence of acts of blasphemy in future? 2006
Why most countries of the Muslim world are devoid of democratic governance?
What changes would you recommend to make them modern democratic states?
2009
How will “Arab Spring” effect the political and security environment in the Arab
World? 2013
What are the causes of “Arab Spring”? Identify their impacts on the future
politics of the region? 2015
How do you see recent developments in the Middle East, particularly with
reference to deteriorating relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran? What role, if
any, Pakistan could play in reducing the tensions between the two Muslim
countries? 2016
Past Current Affairs Papers
Critically analyze the newly established Islamic Military Alliance and its future
implications for the Muslim World? 2018
Describe the 2017 Qatar Diplomatic Crisis and its impact on the Middle East
2018
Discuss in detail the role of OIC, Arab league and GCC in the Middle East crises
and conflicts 2020
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
• The Kingdom of Bahrain - Its 1.4 million people - GDP per capita of
$51,800. It has 124.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves.
• Kuwait - Its 2.9 million residents - 11th highest standard of living in the
world. Its GDP per capita is $69,700. The country holds 6% of the
world's oil reserves. That's 101.5 million barrels.
• The Sultanate of Oman - 3.4 mn ppl - Oil reserves - 5.4 million barrels.
Shifting to tourism - GDP per capita is $45,500.
• Qatar - The second richest country in the world, with a GDP per capita
of $124,900 for each of its 2.3 million residents. It has 25.2 billion
barrels of proven oil reserves - 13% of world's natural gas reserves.
• .
GCC Countries Profile
Oman - not able to meet the target date for a common currency
The UAE announced withdrawal from the monetary union scheme
Saudi Arabia and UAE pressuring Qatar-serious row among the three
Emirati, Saudi and Qatari govts spent $ 190 mn lobbying in DC, between
Kuwait said that a single currency may take up to ten years to establish
In 2014, major moves - to ensure launch of a single currency
Oman and UAE later announced withdrawal from proposed currency
Monetary Council: Bottlenecks
To reduce dependence on oil - GCC pursued eco structural reforms
Oil politics in the region
In 2011, KSA proposed to transform the GCC into a "Gulf Union“
With greater economic, political and military coordination
‘Responsibly Enabled’:
Personal: increase household saving from 6% to 10%
Business: observe social responsibility to create a sustainable economy, help
young people build professional careers
Non-profit organizations: Raise sector’s contribution to GDP from .3% to 5%,
rally one million volunteers annually, vs 11,000 today
Achieving Vision 2030
Government Restructuring Program
Fiscal Balance Program
Regulations Review Program
Public Investment Fund (PIF) Restructuring Program
National Transformation Program (NTP)
Privatization Program
Saudi Aramco Strategic Transformation Program
Strategic Directions Program
Strategic Partnerships Program
Project Management Program
Human Capital Program
Program for Strengthening Public Sector Governance
Reality Check on Vision 2030
KSA’s daunting economic challenges of its modern history
To evaluate the benchmark goals the first four years in 2020
Unfortunate timing – Covid + plummeting oil prices
Disruption of global trade and financial markets
Freeze on industries like tourism
Lost productivity in govt and private sector - uncertain future for KSA plan
Detention of wealthy Saudi businessmen at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh
Murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul
Increasing tensions with Iran diverted int attention from econ reform
Damaged Saudi Arabia’s international reputation.
Vision 2030 relies on massive govt spending, to attract foreign capital
IMF - KSA economy may contract by 2.3 percent in 2020
Core tenets of Vision 2030 can be globally competitive
UAE Eco Vision 2030
Abu Dhabi Policy Agenda 2007/2008 -produced by a taskforce
1. To conduct exhaustive assessment of the key enablers for economic growth
2. To create a comprehensive long-term economic vision, with explicit targets, to
guide the evolution of the Abu Dhabi economy through to the year 2030
Reduced reliance on oil sector- greater focus on knowledge-based industries
'Economic Vision 2030‘ - Government's immediate economic priorities:
Building open, efficient, and globally integrated business environment
Adopting a disciplined fiscal policy that is responsive to economic cycles
Resilient monetary market environment with manageable levels of inflation
Driving significant improvement in the efficiency of the labour market
Developing resilient infrastructure capable to support anticipated eco growth
Developing a highly skilled, highly productive work force
UAE’s 2050 strategy - plans to produce 44% of its energy from renewables
Unusual Spat over oil output
KSA is the giant in the region which is now waking up
Emerging rivalry playing out between traditional Gulf allies
UAE rejects proposal by Opec+ to extend output curbs for 8 months
Diversify economies –manage long-term transition
Output increases by OPEC kept oil prices volatile
KSA supports a plan for OPEC – increase oil output in stages
A total of two mn barrels per day from Aug through Dec 2021
Extend remaining cuts until end of 2022 -expire planned next April
OPEC relies on unanimous decision-making
OPEC yet to set a date for next meeting on oil production quotas
UAE demand – its production quota be revised upward
It would allow it to increase output further
Crippling Blow to the Idea of GCC Market
UAE –increase can inject revenue to bolster eco diversification plans
KSA concerns - increase could put downward pressure on prices
cartel, but how Saudi KSA & UAE manage to work together”
KSA amended its rules on imports from Gulf Arab countries
KSA made this org to fulfil its foremost desire to control the Middle
Eastern politics and to subdue traditional rival — Iran
KSA trusted US ally- susceptible to KSA pressure and strategic moves
Both seemed on verge of plunging the Arab Peninsula into a Cold War
2. Golan Heights
The GCC supported Syria’s rights on the issue of Golan Heights
Called on Israel to withdraw - back to 1967 line in accordance with
Madrid Conference
Called on Israel to implement SC Resolution 242; according to which
Israel should withdraw from the occupied land
GCC Stance on Important Issues
3. Syria
After the Arab Spring - GCC lent a strong support to Syrian people
KSA and Qatar supported Syrians with weapons to defend themselves
4. Yemen Crisis
Gulf initiative helped immediate action to save Yemenis from sliding
toward chaos
To achieve a peaceful and smooth transition of power through a
transitional phase of two years
After obtaining the approval of the main parties in Yemen, it launched
the initiative in the SC which unanimously adopted Resolution 2140 on
Yemen
Pakistan and GCC
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s criticism of the (OIC) led
to a further degradation of those ties
Apart from changing dynamics in South Asia, it is also the changing attitudes
of the GCC towards Israel that are affecting relationship
Deterioration in bilateral ties - affect eco ties between Pak and GCC
GCC Turned 40
Established with success a customs union and common market
Free Movement across region
Between 1983, intra-GCC trade began through a free trade agreement
2014 - trade within the bloc increased 40-fold
GCC reaffirmed social ties and shaped a stronger ‘Khaleeji identity’
Almost 30 million Khaleejis like to be called Khaleejis
GCC vital role in security, economy, edu, health, IT, green technology
Completing 1,350-mile-long regional railway network
It could double or triple GCC cross-border trade –reduce carbon footprint
Main challenge - “Define itself by what it is for and not what it is against”
GCC is not on the table while world is to revive JCPOA
GCC Turned 40
Time to create momentum beyond the sole question of Iran
GCC countries to institutionalize trust - as region readies to face post-oil era
A global shift towards renewables
Comparisons b/w GCC and the EU are extremely flawed
“It is just the sun and the moon.” Cinzia Bianco, research fellow at EUFR
Increase region’s bargaining power by negotiating as a group not individually
Economic integration is not in the list of priorities
GCC countries conduct most of their policies not as a single bloc
Not complementary economies - compete more fiercely to diversify from oil
Competition even in lucrative arenas; sporting events to soc liberalization
Competition could lead to greater ties with GCC neighbors – including Iran
Iraq, Syria and Lebanon backed by Iran, can use access to things the Gulf has
GCC Turned 40
This includes capital and technology (renewable energy to water solutions)
Construction expertise - reconstruction and unmet investment needs
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar (share foreign gas field with Iran) have lines to Tehran
Rational choices –KSA and UAE speak separately to their alleged sworn
enemy
Huge decline in the use of fossil fuels by mid-century – IAEA May 2021 report
Gulf states likely to supply 24 mn barrels of oil the global economy is
expected to consume each day in 2050, down from 91 million in 2020
GCC Turned 40
No common insti. to pool sovereignty in a supranational institution
That does not exist in the GCC; not even the concept of it exists
Strong domestic capital reserve - active govt intervention in economy
Large size of the public sector limits the region’s appeal to external investor
Many GCC economies fall below FDI benchmarks set by financial hubs
The highest ratio in GCC is held by Oman at 4.5%, while the UAE and Bahrain
report around 3% and 2% respectively
KSA and Kuwait fail to clear 1%, Qatar’s heavy reliance on domestic capital
takes its ratio below zero
GCC govts taken broad-based initiatives to mitigate investor concerns
Pol stabilisation, regulatory concessions, infrastrctre invest, skill devlopmnt
GCC Turned 40
Industrialization is blue print of economic diversification
Last quarter : UAE plan to increase industrial revenues to $81 bn next decade
More than double manufacturing sector’s contribution to local economy
KSA launced its Made in Saudi programme to grow their local footprint and
Qatar's Nat. Vision 2030: manufacturing sector to employ 100,000 by 2025
30% increase in value of production between 2019 and 2025
Gulf Moment - KSA to hold the G20 presidency in 2020, UAE to host Expo
2020 from October, and Qatar’s to host of the 2022 FIFA World Cup
Economic union and monetary union seem remote possibilities
Future of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition
US involvement in the region and rising pressure on Saudi Arabia
Future expansion or disintegration of GCC??
GCC Turned 40- Future Prognosis
1. KSA - continue to dominate FP of GCC to minimize Iranian influence
2. Chances of issuing common currency-Khaleeji is less probable
3. It would compel the autocracies to dilute their sovereignty
4. Tumultuous situation: states would pursue strategic & sec
agreements
5. Sectarianism over pol prospects would continue to exist in GCC policy
6. Palestine –GCC would maintain its old stance and nothing in practical-
negotiations; mediation/ arbitration could be expected on this matter
7. Egypt, Libya, Jordon or Morocco would likely to join GCC because of
their current coalition in Saudi-led military alliance
Organization of Islamic Cooperation
OIC- Starters
Fundamental freedoms
OIC- Pol. Challenges
Israeli–Palestinian conflict
Democracy & Human rights
The Middle-East Conundrum
The Yemen Crisis
Kashmir Issue
Cultural diversities
Sectarianism
terrorism
Recognizing Israel – Quid Pro Quo
UAE - US approval of the sale of top-of-the-line F-35 aircraft to the UAE
to bolster its military capacity and its prestige in the region
Threat posed by popular uprisings - eager purchasers of sophisticated
surveillance technology to more effectively police populations
Morocco Recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed region
of Western Sahara and the sale of four sophisticated large aerial drones
as a further reward for its public embrace of Israel
Sudan - American offer to take it off its list of terror-supporting states
It led to a toning down of criticism in West for undemocratic credentials
Bahrain - to buy insurance from both Israel and the US against its
neighbour Iran, which is seen by the regime as the primary external
supporter of Bahrain’s Shia majority agitating for democratic rights
Manama’s move is also a trial balloon on behalf of Riyadh
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/arab-ties-israel-diplomacy-normali
zation-middle-east/
Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC)
The 2nd summit of OIC held in Lahore between 22–24 February 1974
Gulf States’ tilt towards India -India’s increasing role in Middle East