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GCC + Oic (Noa)

The document discusses the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), an intergovernmental political and economic alliance of six countries in the Persian Gulf region. It outlines the GCC's history, objectives, structure, achievements and internal dynamics. Key points include its establishment in 1981, goals of greater economic and political coordination, and challenges in fully realizing a common market and currency due to domestic political differences among members.

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Mashhood Ul Arif
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
81 views80 pages

GCC + Oic (Noa)

The document discusses the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), an intergovernmental political and economic alliance of six countries in the Persian Gulf region. It outlines the GCC's history, objectives, structure, achievements and internal dynamics. Key points include its establishment in 1981, goals of greater economic and political coordination, and challenges in fully realizing a common market and currency due to domestic political differences among members.

Uploaded by

Mashhood Ul Arif
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Past Current Affairs Papers

 How has the apathetic role of Arab countries complicated the issue of Palestine?
2001
 Analyze the role of OIC in the resolution of problems faced by its members –
2002
 What are the ground realities inhibiting the capacity of Organization of Islamic
conference as an effective body to protect the legitimate interests of Muslim
world? 2003
 Current Palestinian situation and the Arab neighbors. 2003
 In the Muslim Societies factors like justice, rejuvenation, education and
enlightenment, which determine the conditions of human societies are miserable
lacking. Analyze the problems confronting the Muslim world in the light of this
statement 2005
 The organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) has not played and effective role in
protecting the rights of member states. How can it become a vibrant
organization to achieve its objectives? 2007
Past Current Affairs Papers
 The ongoing anti blasphemy campaign launched by Muslims all over the world
and the West's obduracy not to yield on the issue in the name of freedom of
press has put the two on a collision. What role the UN and the OIC can play to
prevent recurrence of acts of blasphemy in future? 2006
 Why most countries of the Muslim world are devoid of democratic governance?
What changes would you recommend to make them modern democratic states?
2009
 How will “Arab Spring” effect the political and security environment in the Arab
World? 2013
 What are the causes of “Arab Spring”? Identify their impacts on the future
politics of the region? 2015
 How do you see recent developments in the Middle East, particularly with
reference to deteriorating relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran? What role, if
any, Pakistan could play in reducing the tensions between the two Muslim
countries? 2016
Past Current Affairs Papers
 Critically analyze the newly established Islamic Military Alliance and its future
implications for the Muslim World? 2018
 Describe the 2017 Qatar Diplomatic Crisis and its impact on the Middle East
2018
 Discuss in detail the role of OIC, Arab league and GCC in the Middle East crises
and conflicts 2020
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

 Logo - Two concentric circles - Bismillah phrase is written in Arabic


 The lower part - Council's full name, in Arabic
 The inner circle - embossed hexagonal shape that represents the
Council's six member countries
GCC
Historical Background

Heads of States of the GCC in Abu Dhabi on 25 May 1981


Agreement of the GCC was signed on 11 November 1981 in Abu Dhabi
GCC-Geostrategic Importance
Introduction
 The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
 A regional intergovernmental political and economic union

 Consisting of all Arab states of the Persian Gulf except Iraq

 Its member states are 

 Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE

 Charter of the Gulf Cooperation Council was signed on 25 May 1981


 Its headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
 Secretary General -Dr. Nayef Falah M. Al-Hajraf (Since Feb 1, 2020)
 All current member states are monarchies
 This area has some of the fastest-growing economies in the world
 Discussions -future membership of Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen
Introduction
 The GCC — set up in 1980 as a fortification against Iran and Iraq
 Iraq - only Arab country bordering Persian Gulf, not member of GCC
 In 2012 - Iraq sought to join the GCC
 The lack of membership of Iraq is widely believed to be due to
 Low-income economy

 Its substantial Shia population

 Its political system, and

 Its invasion of member state Kuwait during the gulf war

 Iraq under turmoil since the fall of Saddam Hussain

 Yemen also negotiated for membership (War & Humanitarian Crisis)


Historical Background
 On25th May 1981- Cooperative framework joining the six states to effect
coordination, integration and inter-connection
 Base of GCC - geographical proximity, homogeneous pol systems, similar
Islamic beliefs, same cultural identities, monolingualism and common
objectives

• Bahrain — constitutional monarchy


• Kuwait — hereditary emirate
• Oman — absolute monarchy
• Qatar — constitutional monarchy
• Saudi Arabia — absolute monarchy
• United Arab Emirates — federal monarchy
GCC Countries Profile

• The Kingdom of Bahrain - Its 1.4 million people - GDP per capita of
$51,800. It has 124.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves.
• Kuwait - Its 2.9 million residents - 11th highest standard of living in the
world. Its GDP per capita is $69,700. The country holds 6% of the
world's oil reserves. That's 101.5 million barrels.
• The Sultanate of Oman - 3.4 mn ppl - Oil reserves - 5.4 million barrels.
Shifting to tourism - GDP per capita is $45,500.
• Qatar - The second richest country in the world, with a GDP per capita
of $124,900 for each of its 2.3 million residents. It has 25.2 billion
barrels of proven oil reserves - 13% of world's natural gas reserves.
• .
GCC Countries Profile

• The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - largest GCC country - 28.5 Mn ppl, It


has 16% of the world's proven oil reserves (266.5 mn barrels) Its GDP
per capita is $55,300.
• The United Arab Emirates - Its 6 million people enjoy a per capita
GDP of $68,00. That's thanks to a diversifying economy that includes
Dubai and the world's tallest building, the Burj Dubai Khalifa. Dubai is
the second-largest of the seven city-states in the UAE. Abu Dhabi is
the largest. The UAE has 97.8 million barrels of proven oil reserves

 GCC Area- 2,673,110-square-kilometre (1,032,093 sq mi)


GCC Charter (22 Articles)
 ARTICLE ONE - The Establishment of the Council
 ARTICLE TWO - The Cooperation Council shall have its headquarters in
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
 ARTICLE THREE - Cooperation Council Meetings: The Council shall
hold its meetings in the state where it has its headquarters, and may
convene in any member state.
 ARTICLE FIVE- Council Membership -The Cooperation Council shall be
formed of the six states that participated in the Foreign Ministers'
meeting held in Riyadh on 4 February 1981.
 ARTICLE SIX - Organization of the Cooperation Council, The
Cooperation Council shall have the following main organizations:
 1) Supreme Council 2) Ministerial Council 3) The Secretariate General
The objectives of the GCC (Article-IV )
 To effect coordination, integration and inter-connection between
Member States in order to achieve unity
 To strengthen relations, links and cooperation between their peoples
in various fields
 To formulate regulations in the following: 
 Economic and financial affairs 

 Commerce, customs and communications

 Education and culture 

 To stimulate scientific and technological progress


 To establish joint ventures, encourage cooperation by private sector
Structure
Structure
Goal towards a Monetary Union
 In 2001, the GCC Supreme Council set the following goals:
 A Common Customs Union in January 2003

 Common market by 2007

 Common currency by 2010

 The name ’Khaleeji’ has been proposed for this currency.

 If realized, the GCC monetary union would be the second-largest


supranational monetary union in the world
Major Achievements
 Peninsula Shield Force in 1982
 It incorporates the credibility of the GCC will
 The Comprehensive Security Strategy
 Supreme Council approved Comprehensive Security Strategy in 1987
 This strategy is a broad structure for inclusive security cooperation
 Military Communication Network
 Completion of studies and negotiations for secure network comm
 Continuing work on development and maintenance of a private
cooperation system linking the leaders of air defence centres in GCC
 Facilitating the movement of people and commodities
 Practical achievement - facilitating the movement of people and
commodities between member countries
If GCC Drop $ Peg
 Dollar peg - when a country maintains its currency's value at a fixed
exchange rate to the U.S. dollar
 The GCC countries have reasons to drop their peg to the dollar
 Official policy -keep it until Council creates a monetary union, like EU
 $ fell 40% b/w 2002 & 2014 - created inflation rate of 10% 
 Forced the price of oil and other commodities to increase
 If they removed peg to dollar, they would not need to buy
treasuries to stabilize their exchange rate
 That would cause $ to decline, causing inflation in the United States
 Oil ‘ll no longer be priced in $. That could result in lower oil prices
Internal Dynamics

Oman - not able to meet the target date for a common currency
The UAE announced withdrawal from the monetary union scheme

Central bank for monetary union in Riyadh, not in the UAE

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait: disputes over shared oilfields

Saudi Arabia and UAE pressuring Qatar-serious row among the three

Qatar’s exit from OPEC after 57 year to focus on gas

Emirati, Saudi and Qatari govts spent $ 190 mn lobbying in DC, between

2017 and 2020 in order to fuel a war of narratives


GCC’s Internal Dynamics
 Divergent paths to develop private sectors (UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait)
 Gulf countries continue to rely on public sector enterprises
 Govt-led projects in private sector translated into low levels of FDI
 Since 2015, GCC is trimming expat workforce
 Nationals now comprise 85- 90 percent of the public sector workforce
 Bahrain, Oman, and KSA - 75%
 Qatar - nationals comprising less than 50% of public sector workforce
 In 2017, GCC agreed to institute a value-added tax (VAT) in countries
 Failure in the common imposition of a VAT at a rate of 5%
 KSA &UAE imposed VAT of 5% in Jan 2018 followed by Bahrain later
 Some countries expanded corporate taxes
Monetary Council: Bottlenecks
 15 Dec 2009, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, KSA announced Monetary Council
 To introduce a single currency for the union

 Establishing a central bank

 Choosing a currency regime

 Kuwait said that a single currency may take up to ten years to establish
 In 2014, major moves - to ensure launch of a single currency
 Oman and UAE later announced withdrawal from proposed currency
Monetary Council: Bottlenecks
 To reduce dependence on oil - GCC pursued eco structural reforms
 Oil politics in the region
 In 2011, KSA proposed to transform the GCC into a "Gulf Union“
 With greater economic, political and military coordination

 To counterbalance the Iranian influence in the region


Amid Pandemic
 KSA central bank foreign reserves fell in march at their fastest rate in at
least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011
 KSA slipped into a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter
 Oil prices fell and Saudi currency dropped on April 2021, after U.S.
crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on a virus-induced supply glut
 OPEC, Russia and OPEC on April 12 finalized an unprecedented
production cut of nearly 10 million barrels, tenth of global supply
 GCC block agreed to establish a network to protect food supply
 GCC economies to return to aggregate growth of 2.2% in 2021 (WB)
 Hydrocarbon revenue to increase- $221 bn in 2020 to $326 bn in 2021
KSA Vision 2030 – UAE Eco Vision 2030
 Vision 2030 - transformative eco and social reform blueprint
 Unique strengths & capabilities into a long-term strategic plan
 3 themes: vibrant society, thriving eco, and an ambitious nation
A Vibrant Society: People Come First

 ‘Strong Roots’: Islamic principles of moderation, increase pride in national identity


and cultural heritage
 Increase Umrah visitors from 8 to 30 million per year
 Double the number of Saudi heritage sites registered with UNESCO
 Build a major Islamic museum
 ‘Fulfilling Lives’: Promote physical, social well-being and improve quality of life
 Increase culture and entertainment: increase household spending on these activities
   from 2.9% to 6%
 “Daem”: the national program to promote healthy life
 Enhance quality and livability of cities with high-quality services
 Sustainability: preserve the environment and optimize water usage
 ‘Strong Foundations’:  Health and Education
 Healthcare: Promote preventive care, develop private insurance market
 Increase average life expectancy, Raise position in Social Capital Index to 26 from 10
 Strengthen families: involvement in education; modernize the social welfare system
A Thriving Economy - Create jobs, grow economy,
privatize services, attract talent

 Rewarding Opportunities’: Job Creation


 Lower unemployment rate from 11.6% to 7%
 Increase SME contribution to GDP from 20% to 35%
 Increase women’s workforce participation from 22% to 30%
  
 ‘Investing for the long-term’: develop the national economy
 Increase localization of oil and gas sectors from 40% to 75%
 Increase Public Inv Fund (PIF) assets from SAR 600 to 7 trillion
 Increase FDI from 3.8% to 5.7%
 Increase private sector contribution from 40% of GDP to 65%
 Localize 50% of military equipment spending by 2030
 Mining sector: Goal to reach SAR 97 billion by 2020 and creating 90,000 jobs
 Renewable energy: Target to generate 9.5 gigawatts of renewable energy  
A Thriving Economy

 Open for Business’: Facilitate, Expedite, Adapt, Compete


 Global Competitive Index: Rise to 25 from the current 10th position
 Increase private sector contribution to 65% GDP from 40%
 Develop sophisticated digital infrastructure
 Simplify regulations and procedures from licensing to customs to capital funding

 Leveraging Unique Position: Build out a logistics hub


 Raise global ranking in Logistics Performance Index to #49 from current #25
 Increase share of non-oil exports in non-oil GDP from 16% to 50%
 Support national companies to export their products
 Link infrastructure internally and across borders to enhance logistics services,
working with private sector and international partnerships
 Improve the capacity of air, maritime and other transport operators
Ambitious Nation
 ‘Effectively Governed’: Transparency and Efficiency Drive Growth
 Increase non-oil government revenue from SAR 163 billion to SAR 1 trillion
 Raise ranking in Government Effectiveness index to #20 from #80
 Improve ranking in E-Government Survey from #36 to the top five
 "Qawam Program”: Effective and efficient spending controls

 ‘Responsibly Enabled’:
 Personal: increase household saving from 6% to 10%
 Business: observe social responsibility to create a sustainable economy, help
young people build professional careers
 Non-profit organizations: Raise sector’s contribution to GDP from .3% to 5%,
rally one million volunteers annually, vs 11,000 today
Achieving Vision 2030
 Government Restructuring Program
 Fiscal Balance Program
 Regulations Review Program
 Public Investment Fund (PIF) Restructuring Program
 National Transformation Program (NTP)
 Privatization Program
 Saudi Aramco Strategic Transformation Program
 Strategic Directions Program
 Strategic Partnerships Program
 Project Management  Program
 Human Capital Program
 Program for Strengthening Public Sector Governance
Reality Check on Vision 2030
 KSA’s daunting economic challenges of its modern history
 To evaluate the benchmark goals the first four years in 2020
 Unfortunate timing – Covid + plummeting oil prices
 Disruption of global trade and financial markets
 Freeze on industries like tourism
 Lost productivity in govt and private sector - uncertain future for KSA plan
 Detention of wealthy Saudi businessmen at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh
 Murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul
 Increasing tensions with Iran diverted int attention from econ reform
 Damaged Saudi Arabia’s international reputation.
 Vision 2030 relies on massive govt spending, to attract foreign capital
 IMF - KSA economy may contract by 2.3 percent in 2020
 Core tenets of Vision 2030 can be globally competitive
UAE Eco Vision 2030
 Abu Dhabi Policy Agenda 2007/2008 -produced by a taskforce
 1. To conduct exhaustive assessment of the key enablers for economic growth
 2. To create a comprehensive long-term economic vision, with explicit targets, to
guide the evolution of the Abu Dhabi economy through to the year 2030
 Reduced reliance on oil sector- greater focus on knowledge-based industries
 'Economic Vision 2030‘ - Government's immediate economic priorities:
 Building open, efficient, and globally integrated business environment
 Adopting a disciplined fiscal policy that is responsive to economic cycles
 Resilient monetary market environment with manageable levels of inflation
 Driving significant improvement in the efficiency of the labour market
 Developing resilient infrastructure capable to support anticipated eco growth
 Developing a highly skilled, highly productive work force
 UAE’s 2050 strategy - plans to produce 44% of its energy from renewables
Unusual Spat over oil output
 KSA is the giant in the region which is now waking up
 Emerging rivalry playing out between traditional Gulf allies
 UAE rejects proposal by Opec+ to extend output curbs for 8 months
 Diversify economies –manage long-term transition
 Output increases by OPEC kept oil prices volatile
 KSA supports a plan for OPEC – increase oil output in stages
 A total of two mn barrels per day from Aug through Dec 2021
 Extend remaining cuts until end of 2022 -expire planned next April
 OPEC relies on unanimous decision-making
 OPEC yet to set a date for next meeting on oil production quotas
 UAE demand – its production quota be revised upward
 It would allow it to increase output further
Crippling Blow to the Idea of GCC Market
UAE –increase can inject revenue to bolster eco diversification plans
KSA concerns - increase could put downward pressure on prices

It would stifle investment and leading to supply issues later

One in a series of events - shows growing competition b/w allies

“It’s not so much about handling a one-year output extension in oil

cartel, but how Saudi KSA & UAE manage to work together”
KSA amended its rules on imports from Gulf Arab countries

Exclude goods from GCC Terrif Agreement, made in free zones or

using Israeli input from preferential tariff concessions


Made by companies with a workforce of less than 25% of locals

A bid to challenge UAE status as region’s trade & business hub


UAE is eating our lunch –KSA
 Two Princes - De facto rulers having ambitious visions
 If KSA transforms into a dynamic eco- threat for Emirati eco model
 Arab military coalition 2015 in Yemen
 Imposed a diplomatic, trade and travel embargo on Qatar 2017
 Cracks in relationship - UAE withdrew from Yemen (2019)
 UAE reluctance to accept Saudi-led deal to end the Qatar embargo
 KSA not enthused by UAE's decision to normalise ties with Israel
 Saudi’s ultimatum to multinational companies
 Relocate regional headquarters by 2024 - lose out on govt contracts
 Perceived implicit attack on Dubai commercial hub of the region
 KSA suspended flights to the UAE following OPEC spat
 Competing in sectors like tourism, financial services & technology
Political Divergences
 According to KSA decree
 Goods that contain a component made or produced in Israel,
manufactured by companies owned wholly or partially by Israeli
investors, or by companies listed in the Arab boycott agreement
regarding Israel will be disqualified
 Last May, UAE and Israel signed a tax treaty as both sides worked
to spur business development after normalizing relations last year
Weaknesses OF GCC
 Saudi dominance  
 GCC was formed from the exerted pressure of the Saudi oligarchy to
maintain control over smaller Gulf neighbours ― pol and strategically

 KSA made this org to fulfil its foremost desire to control the Middle
Eastern politics and to subdue traditional rival — Iran
 KSA trusted US ally- susceptible to KSA pressure and strategic moves

 Wary of the growing Saudi influence on the regional affairs

 Arab Spring - key role in GCC decision-making apparatus to curb the


wave of democratization and to safeguard its monarchical empire
 KSA tried to influence the domestic affairs in the oil-rich Bahrain
Weaknesses OF GCC
Inter-state conflicts
After the Arab Spring – Qatar & KSA experienced a public falling out

Both supported conflicting factions in Egypt and Syria

Both seemed on verge of plunging the Arab Peninsula into a Cold War

Security Dilemma – Threat to each other’s national security

Non-settlement of Syrian Refugees

Sectarian hues in Middle East

Most GCC countries have Sunni-dominated populations

Bahrain - the only state having a majority Shiite population

Sectarian schism - one of the reasons behind the ME burning

Yemen crisis and Saudi led operation is one example.


GCC Stance on Important Issues
 1. Palestine
 Apparent position - Recognition of the right of self-determination of
the Palestinians
 Especially right to return to Palestine and to establish their country

 2. Golan Heights
 The GCC supported Syria’s rights on the issue of Golan Heights
 Called on Israel to withdraw - back to 1967 line in accordance with
Madrid Conference
 Called on Israel to implement SC Resolution 242; according to which
Israel should withdraw from the occupied land
GCC Stance on Important Issues
 3. Syria
 After the Arab Spring - GCC lent a strong support to Syrian people
 KSA and Qatar supported Syrians with weapons to defend themselves

 4. Yemen Crisis
 Gulf initiative helped immediate action to save Yemenis from sliding
toward chaos
 To achieve a peaceful and smooth transition of power through a
transitional phase of two years
 After obtaining the approval of the main parties in Yemen, it launched
the initiative in the SC which unanimously adopted Resolution 2140 on
Yemen
Pakistan and GCC

 Pak as a regional balance with Iran, Turkey, Egypt and KSA


 Pak military capabilities qualify it to play a balancing role in the region
 Active Pakistani presence can provide regional stability and security
 Enhance Islamabad’s international influence
 Pak played a balancing role with Iran in the Gulf since the 1970s
 Pak interests in Gulf states: big value commercially, pol and religiously
 Successive Pak govts strengthened relations with the Gulf countries
Pakistan and GCC
 Pakistan-GCC Free Trade Agreement
 Joint ventures and business opportunities
 Pakistan’s manpower in Gulf countries (Forced repatriation)
 Rising Indian influence in Gulf region and ME -a challenge for Pakistan
 Pakistan tried to strike a balance for its relations with KSA and Qatar
 Pakistan holds key role in ECO, SAARC, SCO and OIC
 Islamic Force and Pakistan's role
Pakistan and GCC
 In recent years, Pakistan-GCC ties have witnessed a downward trajectory as a
result of changing geopolitical dynamics

 Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s criticism of the (OIC) led
to a further degradation of those ties

 Apart from changing dynamics in South Asia, it is also the changing attitudes
of the GCC towards Israel that are affecting relationship

 Deterioration in bilateral ties - affect eco ties between Pak and GCC
GCC Turned 40
 Established with success a customs union and common market
 Free Movement across region
 Between 1983, intra-GCC trade began through a free trade agreement
 2014 - trade within the bloc increased 40-fold
 GCC reaffirmed social ties and shaped a stronger ‘Khaleeji identity’
 Almost 30 million Khaleejis like to be called Khaleejis
 GCC vital role in security, economy, edu, health, IT, green technology
 Completing 1,350-mile-long regional railway network 
 It could double or triple GCC cross-border trade –reduce carbon footprint
 Main challenge - “Define itself by what it is for and not what it is against” 
 GCC is not on the table while world is to revive JCPOA
GCC Turned 40
 Time to create momentum beyond the sole question of Iran
 GCC countries to institutionalize trust - as region readies to face post-oil era
 A global shift towards renewables
 Comparisons b/w GCC and the EU are extremely flawed
  “It is just the sun and the moon.” Cinzia Bianco, research fellow at EUFR
 Increase region’s bargaining power by negotiating as a group not individually
 Economic integration is not in the list of priorities
 GCC countries conduct most of their policies not as a single bloc 
 Not complementary economies - compete more fiercely to diversify from oil
 Competition even in lucrative arenas; sporting events to soc liberalization
 Competition could lead to greater ties with GCC neighbors – including Iran
 Iraq, Syria and Lebanon backed by Iran, can use access to things the Gulf has
GCC Turned 40
 This includes capital and technology (renewable energy to water solutions)
 Construction expertise - reconstruction and unmet investment needs
 Kuwait, Oman, Qatar (share foreign gas field with Iran) have lines to Tehran
 Rational choices –KSA and UAE speak separately to their alleged sworn
enemy
 Huge decline in the use of fossil fuels by mid-century – IAEA May 2021 report
 Gulf states likely to supply 24 mn barrels of oil the global economy is
expected to consume each day in 2050, down from 91 million in 2020
GCC Turned 40
 No common insti. to pool sovereignty in a supranational institution
 That does not exist in the GCC; not even the concept of it exists
 Strong domestic capital reserve - active govt intervention in economy
 Large size of the public sector limits the region’s appeal to external investor
 Many GCC economies fall below FDI benchmarks set by financial hubs
 The highest ratio in GCC is held by Oman at 4.5%, while the UAE and Bahrain
report around 3% and 2% respectively
 KSA and Kuwait fail to clear 1%, Qatar’s heavy reliance on domestic capital
takes its ratio below zero
 GCC govts taken broad-based initiatives to mitigate investor concerns
 Pol stabilisation, regulatory concessions, infrastrctre invest, skill devlopmnt
GCC Turned 40
 Industrialization is blue print of economic diversification
 Last quarter : UAE plan to increase industrial revenues to $81 bn next decade
 More than double manufacturing sector’s contribution to local economy
 KSA launced its Made in Saudi programme to grow their local footprint and
 Qatar's Nat. Vision 2030: manufacturing sector to employ 100,000 by 2025
 30% increase in value of production between 2019 and 2025
 Gulf Moment - KSA to hold the G20 presidency in 2020, UAE to host Expo
2020 from October, and Qatar’s to host of the 2022 FIFA World Cup
 Economic union and monetary union seem remote possibilities
 Future of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition
 US involvement in the region and rising pressure on Saudi Arabia
 Future expansion or disintegration of GCC??
GCC Turned 40- Future Prognosis
1. KSA - continue to dominate FP of GCC to minimize Iranian influence
2. Chances of issuing common currency-Khaleeji is less probable
3. It would compel the autocracies to dilute their sovereignty
4. Tumultuous situation: states would pursue strategic & sec
agreements
5. Sectarianism over pol prospects would continue to exist in GCC policy
6. Palestine –GCC would maintain its old stance and nothing in practical-
negotiations; mediation/ arbitration could be expected on this matter
7. Egypt, Libya, Jordon or Morocco would likely to join GCC because of
their current coalition in Saudi-led military alliance
Organization of Islamic Cooperation
OIC- Starters

Second largest Org after UN - 57 states spread over four continents


Over the last 40 years, membership grown from 30 to 57 states

Members contribution $6.425 trillion to world's (GDP) in 2016 (WB)

This is equivalent to 8.51 percent of the world's GDP

Population - 57 states ;1.769 billion in 2016, 23.77% of world (WB)

Charter amended - keep pace with unraveled developments in world

Present Charter - adopted by Eleventh Summit held in Dakar in 2008

Pillar of the OIC future Islamic action - requirements of 21st century

The OIC has permanent delegations to the UN and the EU

The official languages are- Arabic, English, and French


History
 The arson attack -Al-Aqsa Mosque in occupied Jerusalem
 On 21 August 1969, the Al-Aqsa Mosque went in flames

 Amin al-Husseini, the former Mufti of Jerusalem called for all

Muslim heads of state to convene a summit


 Islamic Conference- established in Rabat, Morocco on 25Sep 1969

 A resolution was passed stating that


 "Muslim governments would consult with a view to promoting

among themselves close cooperation and mutual assistance in the


economic, scientific, cultural and spiritual fields, inspired by the
immortal teachings of Islam."
History

 1970 the first meeting of Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers


(ICFM) held in Jeddah
 to establish a permanent secretariat in Jeddah

 Feb 1972, the Organization of the Islamic Conference (now the


Organization of Islamic Cooperation) was founded
OIC- Observers
 States
 Bosnia and Herzegovina (1994)
 Central African Republic (1996)
 Kingdom of Thailand (1998)
 The Russian Federation (2005)
 Turkish Cypriot State (1979)
International Organizations
 United  Nations (UN) (1976), Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) (1977)
 League of Arab States (LAS) (1975), African Union  (AU) (1977)
 Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) (1995)
OIC Charter
 The first OIC Charter - adopted by the 3rd ICFM Session held in 1972
 The present revised Charter of the OIC was adopted by the Eleventh
Islamic Summit held in Dakar on 13-14 March 2008
 The revised charter promotes
 Human rights

 Fundamental freedoms

 Good governance in all member states

 On 28 June 2011 during the 38th Council of Foreign Ministers


meeting (CFM) in Astana, Kazakhstan
 Org changed its name to Organization of Islamic Cooperation
Organization Structure
Organization Structure
OIC GOALS

 According to its Charter, the OIC aims to preserve


 Islamic social and economic values

 Promote solidarity among member states

 Increase co-op in social, eco, cultural, scientific, and political areas

 Uphold international peace and security

 Advance edu, particularly in the fields of science and technology

 Take steps to remove misperceptions about Islam

 Advocate elimination of discrimination against Muslims in all


forms and manifestations
GCC - Ten Year Program of
Action

 OIC face many challenges in 21st century and to address challenges,


Third Extraordinary Session of the Islamic Summit held in Makkah in
Dec 2005, laid down blue print called Ten-Year Program of Action

 A successor programme for next decade (2016-2025) adopted

 The new programme OIC-2025 is anchored in the provisions of the


OIC Charter and focuses on 18 priority areas with 107 goals
Programme of Action OIC-2025 
OIC’s Eco outlook - Challenges & opportunities

 OIC economies(recorded growth rate of 2.4%) contracted 2% in 2020


 OIC share in global economy shrank last year
 Accounting for 8% or $6.6 trn of global economy - estimated at $86.6 trillion
 Share of OIC member states in world trade accounted for 9.22% in 2018
 In terms of trade, the UAE leads followed by Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Turkey,
Indonesia, Qatar, Egypt, Kuwait, Morocco and Iran. These countries
accounted for 80 per cent of the total trade of OIC countries 
 Intra-OIC trade (2018, value of $763.4 bn compared to $644.3 last year)
 Member countries on track for the 2025
 28 countries reached target and share of intra-OIC trade
 Need to increase trade flows by decreasing tariff & non-tariff barriers
OIC’s Eco outlook - Challenges & opportunities
 Need to move from aid to empowerment
 Create a conducive environment to foster soc and eco development
 Financing aspect -capacity develp, inst building, investmnt climate improvement
 Seamless customs clearances through digitization
 Single-window clearance for foreign trade, efficient logistics services at ports
 Removing technical barriers, establishment of free trade areas
 Adherence to the guiding principles of investment facilitation
 Enable OIC countries to achieving goals of the OIC-2025 10-year Plan of Action
 It aims to increase the share of intra-OIC trade to 25 per cent
 OIC countries to focus on regional free trade agreements to increase jobs opp
 International trade agreements may get re-written
 More emphasis can be given for increasing trade possibilities b/w OIC states
Key challenges of OIC states
 Half of the population below the poverty line classified the most poor
 No OIC state is in the top list of Human Development Index
 No Muslim state is in the top chart of any global economic indicators index
 Depressing picture of the Muslim world in realm of edu and technology
 OIC countries possess 70 % of the world's energy resources and 40 per cent
of available raw material but their GDP is only 5 per cent of the world GDP
 None of their edu/research institutions find place in the top 100 in the world
 Political inertia, economic underdevelopment, lack of democracy and
unrepresentative governments as examples of the malaise afflicting the OIC
 OIC needs fresh vision –strategic vision
 Responsive pulse to int developments - refine into a forward-looking vision
 Leveraging the collective will & Joint Islamic Action to tacke 21st challenges
Key challenges of OIC states
 Can OIC remain relevant for 21st Century?
 60% of all conflicts in the world occur in OIC countries
 80% of global conflict fatalities – 90% of global terrorism fatalities
 Two-thirds of world refugees originate from OIC countries
 Muslim minorities in non-OIC countries are facing security challenges
 Inequality - One main cause and consequence of conflict
 Soc differences coincide with eco and pol differences -deep resentment
 Pol and social exclusion
 Poor level of pol participation
 Weak pol and soc integration render vulnerability to unrest
 Major missions of the OIC -to promote int peace and harmony
 OIC to be actively involved in conflict resolution and mediation
Bleak credentials of OIC
 OIC Summits in response to challenges confronting Muslim world
 Since inception Islamic world suffered 10 major catastrophes
 Dhaka Debacle 1971, Invasion of Lebanon 1982, Iran-Iraq war, Soviet
intervention in Afghanistan, US occupation of Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syrian
Afghanistan crises – OIC silent spectator
 OIC failure to respond meaningfully/ demonstrate unity of thought and action
 Moral blow to the unity, dignity and sovereignty of the Muslim World
 Those upheavals reduced OIC to almost a non-factor in int politics
 OIC abjectly failed to grasp demands and requirements of 21st century
 Absolute need to introduce and embrace modern technology
 Muslim leadership and its distressing intellectual poverty
OIC has got a second bite of the cherry
 OIC has set up a number of institutions to help in capacity building, knowledge
networking in areas of knowledge-driven economy, trade and investments,
quality and productivity, sustainable development, governance and poverty
alleviation
 To date have no achievement to their credit
 Willingness to face the present challenges boldly
 Demonstrate political will to assert their role in the world affairs
 Current crisis between the West and the world of Islam - another opportunity
 OIC to prove its relevance by playing a constructive role by building bridges
 OIC to come up with an informed dialogue between Islam and other faiths
 Need good governance, wider political participation, establish rule of law
 Protect human rights, apply social justice, transparency, fight corruption
 Build civil society institutions
OIC needs to find its Raison d’etre
 Imp of NGOs, a combination of official and non-official efforts
 OIC must encourage dialogue and engagement
 Even when parties to a conflict are throwing around label of terrorism
 Resolving disputes in a timely manner
 OIC must use influence and incentivize wisely without false promises
 OIC needs to increase its capacity
 Models/proposals for innovative approaches for power &wealth sharing
 OIC peace & security architecture lacks primary organ to oversee issues
 Has to be functional -components have to work in synchronized manner
 OIC peace and security architecture lacks peace force
 Needed to provide security, pol and peace-building support
 Another component missing is an early warning system
 Conflicts can be reported in a timely fashion – will lead to timely actions


OIC- Pol. Challenges

 Israeli–Palestinian conflict
 Democracy & Human rights
 The Middle-East Conundrum
 The Yemen Crisis

 The Syrian Civil War and the OIC

 Shia-Sunni Divide in the Muslim world


 Islamophobia and the Role of OIC
 Combating three menaces-Terrorism, extremism and Radicalism
 Turning a blind eye to the plights of China’s Uighur Muslims
 Overcoming poverty and underdevelopment
OIC- Pol. Challenges
 Relationship with India
 India's entry into the OIC

 Kashmir Issue

 OIC & Muslim Renaissance- remote possibility / reality in near future?


 Pan-Islamism and the Unity of ‘Ummah’- a huge challenge
 Establishing a single economic and political entity as of EU?
 Revival of the institution of ‘Khilafat’
 Political landscape of OIC members

 Cultural diversities

 Sectarianism

 terrorism
Recognizing Israel – Quid Pro Quo
 UAE -  US approval of the sale of top-of-the-line F-35 aircraft to the UAE
to bolster its military capacity and its prestige in the region
 Threat posed by popular uprisings - eager purchasers of sophisticated
surveillance technology to more effectively police populations
 Morocco Recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed region
of Western Sahara and the sale of four sophisticated large aerial drones
as a further reward for its public embrace of Israel
 Sudan - American offer to take it off its list of terror-supporting states
 It led to a toning down of criticism in West for undemocratic credentials
 Bahrain - to buy insurance from both Israel and the US against its
neighbour Iran, which is seen by the regime as the primary external
supporter of Bahrain’s Shia majority agitating for democratic rights
Manama’s move is also a trial balloon on behalf of Riyadh
 https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/arab-ties-israel-diplomacy-normali
zation-middle-east/
Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC)

 For military intervention against ISIL, Yemen and other counter-


terrorist activities
 Original 34 members

 countries joined and the number reached to 41 

 Most of its participants are members of the OIC


 Coalition having majority Sunni Muslim populations
 Called "a sectarian coalition" by Hakeem Azameli, a member of

the Security and Defense Commission in the Iraqi parliament


 Iran has expressed strong reservations
Pakistan and the OIC
Pakistan is the most significant member of OIC
 population, it is the OIC's second largest member.

 nuclear weapons- seventh-largest standing military force

 research, education and economy


 large labour workforce working in various Muslim countries

The 2nd summit of OIC held in Lahore between 22–24 February 1974

Support for Palestine and Middle East issues

Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition

Pakistan’s Relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia- striking a balance???

Gulf States’ tilt towards India -India’s increasing role in Middle East

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