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Unit 3 Topic 2 Time Series Analysis: Miss Perry

This document discusses time series analysis and how to identify trends, seasonality, and irregular fluctuations in time series data. A time series is a collection of repeated measurements over time that can show general trends, seasonal patterns under a calendar year, cyclical patterns over a calendar year, and irregular fluctuations. The document provides examples of different types of patterns and fluctuations that can be observed in time series data.

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Lauren Perry
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45 views14 pages

Unit 3 Topic 2 Time Series Analysis: Miss Perry

This document discusses time series analysis and how to identify trends, seasonality, and irregular fluctuations in time series data. A time series is a collection of repeated measurements over time that can show general trends, seasonal patterns under a calendar year, cyclical patterns over a calendar year, and irregular fluctuations. The document provides examples of different types of patterns and fluctuations that can be observed in time series data.

Uploaded by

Lauren Perry
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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UNIT 3

TOPIC 2
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
Miss Perry
LEARNING GOALS
1. Construct a time series plot from given data
2. Identify and describe trends
3. Identify and describe seasonality
4. Identify and describe irregular fluctuation
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A time series is a collection of repeated measurements of data
over time. These are described over
• General Trend (long term direction)
• Seasonal (< calendar year)
• Cyclical pattern (> calendar year)
• Irregular (fluctuations)
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A trend can be described as:
“The tendency for values in a time series to generally increase
or decrease over a significant time period.”

There may be more than one trend per graph.


GENERAL TREND 6

A general trend upwards or downward trend is a


graph that illustrates a positive or negative
association.
SEASONAL PATTERN 7

Displays fluctuation that are periodic and repeat at the same


time of the calendar related. E.g each week, month or quarter.
e.g ice cream sales over the year
CYCLICAL PATTERN 8

Displays fluctuations that repeat in periodic movements but will usually


take longer than a year to repeat.

e.g. Interest Rates, Unemployment figures and sunspots


IRREGULAR FLUCTUATION 9

Do not show any clear pattern. The fluctuation is random and usually caused
by unpredictable events.
e.g. drought
10

QUIZ

Q1: Do time series graphs always depict how the value


of a defined quantity varies with time?

A)No
B)Yes
11

QUIZ

Q2) For every time series graph, the time


variable is on what axis?
A)X
B)Y
C)Explanatory variable
D)Response variable
12
Presentation title 13

CONSTRUCT A TIME SERIES


Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales($) 132600 143800 137600 139800 141300 144500 147700 146400
14

CONSTRUCT A TIME SERIES


Number of people who watch a news broadcast on a
given day of the week over a two week period.
Day M T W T F S S M T W T F S S
Numb 1.2 1.18 1.16 1.18 0.90 0.75 1 1.21 1.23 1.19 1.16 0.95 0.68 0.98
er of
views

Describe the trend any trends present.

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