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Normal Distribution Slides

This document provides an introduction to the normal distribution. It discusses key aspects of the normal distribution including the mean, standard deviation, bell curve shape and the percentages of data that fall within 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations of the mean. It also demonstrates how to use a graphics calculator to calculate probabilities for the normal distribution given the mean and standard deviation. Examples calculate probabilities for the weights of rugby players and amounts of liquids.

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Sally Wang
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
44 views128 pages

Normal Distribution Slides

This document provides an introduction to the normal distribution. It discusses key aspects of the normal distribution including the mean, standard deviation, bell curve shape and the percentages of data that fall within 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations of the mean. It also demonstrates how to use a graphics calculator to calculate probabilities for the normal distribution given the mean and standard deviation. Examples calculate probabilities for the weights of rugby players and amounts of liquids.

Uploaded by

Sally Wang
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 128

Normal Distribution

Lesson 1
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR

Mon 22/8
Where we are at
We have now covered two of the three sections in the 2.12 Probability external topic:

✅ Trees

✅ Tables and Risk

- Normal Distribution

You should keep practicing your skills in probability trees and tables/risk by completing past
exam papers regularly.

Today we are going to start looking at Normal Distribution.


Distributions
A “distribution” is a mathematical name for the shape and spread of a graph.

E.g. This distribution shows the


test scores for 50 students:

Distributions can be described in a number of ways


Distributions

How would you describe each of these distributions?

A= B=

C= D=

E=
Distributions

How would you describe each of these distributions?

A = Bimodal B = Bimodal

C = Left skewed D = Normal

E = Rectangular (sometimes called uniform)


Distributions
Choose which distribution would best
match the given scenarios:
Normal Distribution
The distribution we are going to focus on for this topic is the Normal Distribution.

It has a shape that we describe as a “bell curve”. Most of the population is near the mean, with
a small number at the extremes.

The percentage under the curve shows the probability of a value falling in that range.
Normal Distribution
Every normal distribution has a mean (μ), the average value, seen as the peak of the bell
curve.

Every normal distribution has a standard deviation (𝜎), a measure of how spread out the
data is.

Three normal distributions with Three normal distributions with Three normal distributions with
different means (but the same different standard deviations (but different means and different
standard deviation) the same mean) standard deviations
Normal Distribution
- 68% of data is always within 1 standard deviation of the mean
- 95% of data is always within 2 standard deviations of the mean
- 99% of data is always within 3 standard deviations of the mean
- Only 1% of data is further than 3 standard deviations away from the mean
Normal Distribution - mean and standard deviation
Remember, every bell curve has 3sd above and below the mean. Use this to figure out
the mean and s.d. For the following bell curves:
Normal Distribution - mean and standard deviation
Remember, every bell curve has 3sd above and below the mean. Use this to figure out
the mean and s.d. For the following bell curves:
Normal Distribution
Use the percentages under the
bell curve to calculate the
following probabilities:
Normal Distribution
Use the percentages under the
bell curve to calculate the
following probabilities:
Normal Distribution
Use the percentages under the
bell curve to calculate the
following probabilities:
Normal Distribution
Weights of players on a rugby team are
normally distributed with a mean of 85kg and a
standard deviation of 4kg.

● What is the probability a player weighs


between 73 and 89kg?

● What is the probability a player weighs less


than 81kg?

● What is the probability that a player weighs


between 83 and 88kg?
Normal Distribution
Weights of players on a rugby team are
normally distributed with a mean of 85kg and a
standard deviation of 4kg.

● What is the probability a player weighs


between 73 and 89kg?

● What is the probability a player weighs less


than 81kg?

● What is the probability that a player weighs


between 83 and 88kg?
Normal Distribution
Weights of players on a rugby team are
normally distributed with a mean of 85kg and a
standard deviation of 4kg.

● What is the probability a player weighs


between 73 and 89kg? When the information we want does not
fall nicely on the standard deviation
● What is the probability a player weighs less lines, the bell curve percentages aren’t
than 81kg? enough to help us figure out the
probability!
● What is the probability that a player weighs
between 83 and 88kg?
Normal Distribution - Using your Graphics Calculator
Questions won’t usually match up nicely to the standard deviation lines on the diagram.
Instead we use a graphics calculator to calculate probabilities for us:

Note: you can also calculate these types of questions without a graphics calculator - it
involves using an equation to find something called a “Z-Score” and then looking up your
answer in a big table of numbers. We will discuss this more later, but for now, ignore the steps
in your book that talk about Z-Scores and tables.
Normal Distribution - Using your Graphics Calculator
1. Go to the NcD menu:

2. Input the information for the question you are


answering. In this example the mean is 3.3kg, the
standard deviation is 0.3kg, and the question is asking
for the probability that a value is between 2.7kg and
3.1kg:

3. The answer will pop up in a screen like this: The “P=”


part is the answer (as a decimal). In this case the
answer is 0.2297(4dp) or 22.97%
Normal Distribution - Try these:
- From the main menu, choose: Stat > Dist > Norm > NcD (make sure the setting is in
“variable” not “list”)
- Input the information for the question (lower and upper values are whatever the question
is asking about, 𝜎 = standard deviation, 𝜇 = mean)
- The only working your need is a little bell curve sketch with shading:
- The “P=” part is the answer (as a decimal)

The mean distance jumped in a school long jump competition was 170cm, with a standard
deviation of 15cm. Calculate the probability that Jack jumped:
1. Between 170cm and 200cm
2. Between 150cm and 170cm
3. Between 155cm and 180cm
4. Between 160cm and 167cm
Normal Distribution - ANSWERS:

The mean distance jumped in a school long jump competition was 170cm, with a standard
deviation of 15cm. Calculate the probability that Jack jumped:
1. Between 170cm and 200cm
2. Between 150cm and 170cm
3. Between 155cm and 180cm
4. Between 160cm and 167cm
Now try the Walker book pages 22, 26, 29, 32

Homework
Ensure you have a graphics calculator
Normal Distribution
Lesson 2
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR

Tues 23/8
Normal Distribution - Try these:
- From the main menu, choose: Stat > Dist > Norm > NcD (make sure the setting is in
“variable” not “list”)
- Input the information for the question (lower and upper values are whatever the question
is asking about, 𝜎 = standard deviation, 𝜇 = mean)
- The only working you need is a little bell curve sketch:
- The “P=” part is the answer (as a decimal)

The mean amount of coca-cola per bottle is 602mL, with a standard deviation of 1.5mL.
Calculate the probability that a bottle has:
1. Between 600mL and 605mL
2. Between 599mL and 601mL
Normal Distribution - ANSWERS
Question 1 Question 2
- input screen - input screen

Question 1 Question 2
- answer screen - answer screen

The mean amount of coca-cola per bottle is 602mL, with a standard deviation of 1.5mL.
Calculate the probability that a bottle has:
1. Between 600mL and 605mL 0.8860 (4dp)
2. Between 599mL and 601mL 0.2297 (4dp)
Normal Distribution
Try these:
Anna lives in a country whose climate has a mean temperature of 17 degrees Celsius, and
a standard deviation of 3 degrees Celsius.

What is the probability that the temperature is:

1. Between 20 and 25 degrees?


2. Between 12 and 15 degrees?
3. Between 15 and 22 degrees?
4. Between 5 and 9 degrees?
5. Between 28 and 30 degrees?
Try these - ANSWERS
Remember:

Your only working should


be a quick bell curve
sketch, shaded to represent
the question values (some
instructions will talk about
Z-scores and tables, but you
don’t need to know about
these to find the correct
answer using your graphics
calculator)
Normal Distribution - Use the NcD menu on your
calculator to answer these:
The mean weight of babies born in NZ is 3.3kg. The standard deviation for weight of
babies born in NZ is 400g.
1. What is the probability that a baby born weighs between 3kg and 4kg?
2. What is the probability that a baby born weighs between 3.1kg and 3.5kg?
3. What is the probability that a baby born weighs between 2kg and 2.5kg?

The amount of money invested in stocks each day is normally distributed with a mean of
$3000 and a standard deviation of $800.
4. What is the probability that between $1000 to $2000 is invested in stocks?
5. What is the probability that between $2500 and $5000 is invested in stocks?
6. What is the probability that over $4000 is invested in stocks?
Normal Distribution - Use the NcD menu on your
calculator to answer these:
The mean weight of babies born in NZ is 3.3kg. The standard deviation for weight of
ANSWERS
babies born in NZ is 400g.
Mean = that
1. What is the probability 3.3kga baby born weighs between 3kg and 4kg?
SD = 0.4kg
2. What is the probability that a baby born weighs between 3.1kg and 3.5kg?
1. P(3<x<4) = 0.7333
3. What is the probability that a baby= 0.3829
2. P(3.1<x<3.5) born weighs between 2kg and 2.5kg?
3. P(2<x<2.5) = 0.0222
The amount of money invested in stocks each day is normally distributed with a mean of
Mean = $3000
$3000 and a standard deviation
SD = $800 of $800.
4. What is the probability that between=$1000
4. P(1000<x<2000) 0.0994 to $2000 is invested in stocks?
5. P(2500<x<5000)
5. What is the probability that between=$2500
0.7278 and $5000 is invested in stocks?
6. P(x>4000) = 0.1056
6. What is the probability that over $4000 is invested in stocks?
Normal Distribution - More than and Less than
Instead of asking for the probability of a value falling BETWEEN two numbers, you can
also be asked for the probability that a value falls either ABOVE or BELOW a given
amount.

We still use the NcD menu on the calculator, and we still use a bell curve sketch as our
working.

The only difference is what you put for the upper and lower limits.
E.g.
Above 56: Lower = 56 Upper =
999999999999
Below 14: Lower = -99999999999 Upper = 14
Normal Distribution - More than and Less than
The heights of yr12 students are The heights of yr3 students are normally
normally distributed with a mean of distributed with a mean of 100cm and a
162cm and a standard deviation of 4cm. standard deviation of 3cm. What is the
What is the probability that a yr12 probability that a yr3 student is shorter than
student is taller than 170cm? 95cm?
Normal Distribution - ANSWERS
The heights of yr12 students are normally distributed The heights of yr3 students are normally distributed
with a mean of 162cm and a standard deviation of with a mean of 100cm and a standard deviation of
4cm. What is the probability that a yr12 student is 3cm. What is the probability that a yr3 student is
taller than 170cm? shorter than 95cm?
Kahoot
https://create.kahoot.it/details/5ef4400b-53c9-4421-bc44-5d877275224a

A kahoot revising the basics of NcD normal distribution


Normal Distribution - What we know so far
Question 1 Question 2

The number of lollies in a 500g bag is The time it takes a group of novice runners to
normally distributed with a mean (𝜇) = 153 run 10k is normally distributed with a mean
and standard deviation (𝜎) = 6. What is the (𝜇) of 48min and a standard deviation (𝜎) of
probability that a bag has: 7min. What is the chance that a randomly
selected runner took:
a) Between 140 to 160 lollies?
b) Less than 150 lollies? a) Between 30 - 40min?
c) More than 170 lollies? b) Over 50min?
d) Between 145 to 148 lollies? c) Less than 45min?
e) Less than 165 lollies? d) Between 40 - 60min?
e) More than 70min?
Normal Distribution - What we know so far
Question 1 Question 2

TheANSWERS
number of lollies in a 500g bag is The time it takes a group of novice runners to
normally distributed with a mean (𝜇) = 153 run 10k is normally distributed with a mean
andMean
standard deviation (𝜎) = 6. What is the
= 153 (𝜇) of 48min and a standard deviation (𝜎) of
SD = 6 that a bag has:
probability 7min. What is the chance that a randomly
1. P(140<x<160) = 0.8632 selected runner took:
a) 2.Between 140 to
P(x<150) 160 lollies?
= 0.3085
b) 3.Less than 150=lollies?
P(x>170) 0.0023 a) Between 30 - 40min?
c) 4.More
P(145<x<148) = 0.1111
than 170 lollies? b) Over 50min?
d) 5.Between
P(x<165) = 0.9772
145 to 148 lollies? c) Less than 45min?
e) Less than 165 lollies? d) Between 40 - 60min?
e) More than 70min?
Normal Distribution - What we know so far
Question 1 Question 2

TheANSWERS
number of lollies in a 500g bag is The ANSWERS
time it takes a group of novice runners to
normally distributed with a mean (𝜇) = 153 run 10k is normally distributed with a mean
andMean
standard deviation (𝜎) = 6. What is the
= 153 (𝜇) of 48min
Mean and a standard deviation (𝜎) of
= 48min
SD = 6 that a bag has:
probability 7min.SD = 7min
What is the chance that a randomly
1. P(140<x<160) = 0.8632 1. runner
selected P(30<x<40)
took: = 0.1215
a) 2.Between 140 to
P(x<150) 160 lollies?
= 0.3085 2. P(x>50) = 0.3875
b) 3.Less than 150=lollies?
P(x>170) 0.0023 a) Between 30 - =40min?
3. P(x<45) 0.3341
c) 4.More
P(145<x<148) = 0.1111
than 170 lollies? 4. P(40<x<60)
b) Over 50min? = 0.8302
d) 5.Between
P(x<165) = 0.9772
145 to 148 lollies? 5. P(x>70)
c) Less = 0.00084
than 45min?
e) Less than 165 lollies? d) Between 40 - 60min?
e) More than 70min?
Try this - Walker book pages 34-37
Normal Distribution
Lesson 3
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR

Weds 24/8
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution - Try these:
- From the main menu, choose: Stat > Dist > Norm > NcD (make sure the setting is in
“variable” not “list”)
- Input the information for the question (lower and upper values are whatever the question
is asking about, 𝜎 = standard deviation, 𝜇 = mean)
- The only working you need is a little bell curve sketch:
- The “P=” part is the answer (as a decimal)

The heights of Silver Fern netball players is normally distributed with a mean of 171cm
and a standard deviation of 11cm. What is the probability that a Silver Fern is:
1. Between 140cm and 160cm?
2. Taller than 2m?
Normal Distribution - ANSWERS
Question 1 Question 2
- input screen - input screen

Question 1 Question 2
- answer screen - answer screen

The heights of Silver Fern netball players is normally distributed with a mean of 171cm
and a standard deviation of 11cm. What is the probability that a Silver Fern is:
1. Between 140cm and 160cm? 0.1562
2. Taller than 2m? 0.00419
The hourly wage for casual workers is normally distributed with
mean = $22 and s.d. = $1.20.
Find the hourly wage that 20% of workers earn more than

Sketch

We need a slightly different calculator menu:


Stat > Dist > Norm > Inv
The hourly wage for casual workers is normally distributed with
mean = $22 and s.d. = $1.20.
Find the hourly wage that 20% of workers earn more than

Sketch

Tail: which side of the bell curve are you shading? In this question, it’s “right”

Area: this is the probability as a decimal, in this question it’s 0.20

SD (𝜎) and mean (𝜇) are the same as always, in this question
sd = 1.20 and mean = 22
The heights of yr12 students is normally distributed with mean =
163cm and s.d. = 9cm
Find the height that 10% of yr12 students are shorter than
Start with a Sketch

Go to the Inverse menu: Stat > Dist (F5) > Norm (F1) > Inv (F3)

Input:

Tail =whether the shaded part of your sketch is on the left, in the middle or on the right

Area = the probability as a decimal

The S.D. and the Mean


The heights of yr12 students is normally distributed with mean =
163cm and s.d. = 9cm
Find the height that 10% of yr12 students are shorter than
Start with a Sketch

Go to the Inverse menu: Stat > Dist (F5) > Norm (F1) > Inv (F3)

Input:

Tail =whether the shaded part of your sketch is on the left, in the
middle or on the right

Area = the probability as a decimal

The S.D. and the Mean


Inverse Normal - we have the probability we need the value

Chocolate bars are normally distributed with a mean of 80g and standard
deviation of 2g. Complete the following statement:

The middle 60% of chocolate bars weight between ___g and ___g.
Inverse Normal - we have the probability we need the value

Chocolate bars are normally distributed with a mean of 80g and standard
deviation of 2g. Complete the following statement:

The middle 60% of chocolate bars weight between ___g and ___g.
Walker Book pages 39 - 42
(Remember to ignore the stuff about Z-scores and tables!)

Homework

NcD practice: pages 34-37


Inverse practice: pages 39-42

Due Monday 29th Aug


Extra Practice:

After what amount of time will 95% of


patients have been seen by a doctor?
Graphs

Sd = 2.4

Sd = 13.25
Answers Note: The working is only relevant if you use tables.
Using your calculator, the only working you need is a
bell curve sketch.
Normal Distribution
Lesson 4
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR

Thurs 25/8
Do Now
The grades for your final internal (2.11 Critiquing Reports) are now online.

If you have a resub to do, you will have an email from me instead.

Please check your grade now. If your grade is what you are expecting you do not
need to do anything - I will get you to sign for it next week.

If you were expecting a higher grade, then later in the lesson I will ask you to come
and see me for some feedback.
Remember!
NcD Calculations Inverse Calculations
We have the value, we need the probability We have the probability, we need the value

NcD menu: Stat > Dist > Norm > NcD Inverse menu: Stat > Dist > Norm > Inv
Input: Input:
Lower Tail (left/right/centre)
Upper Area (the probability as a decimal) S.D.
S.D.
Mean Mean
NcD or Inverse? - Which menu to use?

1. Packets of chips are normally distributed with mean=120g and sd=2.1g. The
lightest 10% of packets get rejected as they don’t contain enough chips. What
weight is the limit for rejection?

2. Bottles of cola are normally distributed with mean = 400mL and sd = 3.2mL.
What percentage of bottles contain between 405-410mL?

3. Chicken nuggets are normally distributed with mean=25g and sd=1.5g. Out of a
packet of 100 nuggets, how many would you expect to
weigh more than 27g?
Answers
1. Packets of chips are normally distributed with mean=120g and sd=2.1g. The lightest 10% of packets
get rejected as they don’t contain enough chips. What weight is the limit for rejection?

2. Bottles of cola are normally distributed with mean = 400mL and sd = 3.2mL. What percentage of
bottles contain between 405-410mL?

3. Chicken nuggets are normally distributed with mean=25g and sd=1.5g. Out of a packet of 100
nuggets, how many would you expect to weigh more than 23g?
If you are managing those 3 types of questions, you
are working at Merit level for Normal Distribution :)
Kahoot (in class)
https://create.kahoot.it/details/inverse-normal-distribution/cd98dd41-b039-4870-97d3-5e96ed513ae8
Workbook pages 34-37 and 39-42

Worksheet - extra practice with video explanations


https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FCZXo9_DdcPAOuEDItHVWBIWguCepmVFJ2Ms_PoL6kc/edit?usp=sharing
Normal Distribution
Lesson 5
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR

Mon 29/8
Normal Distribution
Remember!
NcD Calculations Inverse Calculations
We have the value, we need the probability We have the probability, we need the value

NcD menu: Stat > Dist > Norm > NcD Inverse menu: Stat > Dist > Norm > Inv
Input: Input:
Lower Tail (left/right/centre)
Upper Area (the probability as a decimal) S.D.
S.D.
Mean Mean
Answer the following questions, deciding whether you need
the Ncd menu or the Inverse menu:
1. Alex travels to school by car. The time it takes to get there is normally distributed
with mean=6.2mins and sd=0.9mins. What is the probability it will take longer than
7mins to get to school? .

2. Bailey walks to school. The time it takes to get there is normally distributed with
mean=22mins and sd=1.5mins. Bailey is late 15% of the time. What is the longest
time it takes Bailey to get to school, while still being on time? .

3. Tyler cycles to school. The time it takes to get there is normally distributed with
mean=16.3mins and sd=4.1mins. How many days per term
(50 school days) do you expect Tyler to take between 15-
20mins to get to school?
Answer the following questions, deciding whether you
need the Ncd menu or the Inverse menu:
1. Alex travels to school by car. The time it takes to get there is normally
distributed with mean=6.2mins and sd=0.9mins. What is the probability it will
take longer than 7mins to get to school?

We need the probability,


P = 0.1870 or 18.7%
so NcD menu.
Alex takes longer than 7mins to get
to school 18.7% of the time.
Answer the following questions, deciding whether you
need the Ncd menu or the Inverse menu:
Bailey walks to school. The time it takes to get there is normally distributed with
mean=22mins and sd=1.5mins. Bailey is late 15% of the time. What is the longest
time it takes Bailey to get to school, while still being on time?

We need the value, so


Inverse menu. X = 23.55
Bailey has to get to school in
23.55mins or less to avoid being late
Answer the following questions, deciding whether you
need the Ncd menu or the Inverse menu:
Tyler cycles to school. The time it takes to get there is normally distributed with
mean=16.3mins and sd=4.1mins. How many days per term (50 school days) do you
expect Tyler to take between 15-20mins to get to school?

We need the probability, P = 0.441


so NcD menu. 0.441 x 50 = 22.05days
I expect Tyler to take between 15-20mins
to get to school about 22 days per term.
If you are managing those 3 types of questions, you are
working at Merit level for Normal
Distribution :)
The Standard Normal Curve
If we don’t have a calculator, we would need to
calculate a “Z-Score” for our question, and then look
up the probability in a normal distribution table:
Standard Normal
We won’t need to worry about using tables, but we do need to
understand and calculate Z-Scores.
We can’t have a new table for every possible mean/s.d. combination,
so we standardise our question and force it to be mean=0 s.d.=1
This is called the standard normal curve.
Standard Normal
A normal distribution question in context has an X-value
A standard normal distribution has a Z-score

We convert between the two using this formula:


Standard Normal
In this example we can use the formula to show,
for example

An X-value of 1050:

An X-value of 950:
Standard Normal
And this example shows that (for this question)
an X-value of 73 is equivalent to a Z-Score of -
1.34615
Tables and Z-Scores
You will never be REQUIRED to use the table of values.

But you will be expected to use the Z-score formula.

This could be to convert to/from the standard normal curve.

It could also be when we don’t know the mean or


s.d. and so can’t use the calculator easily.
Working with the Z-Score Formula
If you are confident with Yr9/Yr10 Algebra, then it is probably easiest/quickest to solve these
questions with pen and paper.

If you are not confident with algebra, you can use the solver menu on your calculator.
Working with the Z-Score Formula
If you are confident with Yr9/Yr10 Algebra, then it is probably easiest/quickest to solve these
questions with pen and paper.

If you are not confident with algebra, you can use the solver menu on your calculator.

Solver menu
Basic run menu

Solver menu
Solver menu
Working with the Z-Score Formula
Find the missing values in these Z score calculations.
Try with algebra, and with your solver menu, to see which
you prefer:

Question 1: Find X, when Question 2: Find 𝜎, when

Z=1.34, 𝜇=184 and 𝜎=6.2 Z=-0.941, X=54 and 𝜇=63


Working with the Z-Score Formula
Find the missing values in these Z score calculations. Try with
algebra, and with your solver menu, to see which you prefer:

Question 1: Find X, when Question 2: Find 𝜎,


when

Z=1.34, 𝜇=184 and 𝜎=6.2 Z=-0.941, X=54 and


𝜇=63
Find the unknown values: 6. The length of songs played on The Edge radio station are
normally distributed with mean=200sec and sd=25sec. What is
1. the Z value of a song that lasts 230sec?

7. The length of songs played on ZM radio station are


2. normally distributed with mean=215sec and sd=35sec. How
long is a song that has a Z value of -0.853?

3.
8. The length of songs played on The Hits radio station are
normally distributed with mean=250sec.
4. If a song lasting 260sec has a Z value
of 1.15, what is the standard
5. deviation of the distribution?
Answers - Find the unknown values:
1. z = 1.75
6. The length of songs played on The Edge radio station are
normally distributed with mean=200sec and sd=25sec.
What is the Z value of a song that lasts 230sec?
2. z = -2.054

3. X = 3.42

4. sd = 2.4

5. mean = 128.808
Answers - Find the unknown values:
1. z = 1.75 7. The length of songs played on ZM radio station are
normally distributed with mean=215sec and sd=35sec. How
long is a song that has a Z value of -0.853?
2. z = -2.054

3. X = 3.42

4. sd = 2.4

5. mean = 128.808
Answers - Find the unknown values:
1. z = 1.75 8. The length of songs played on The Hits radio station
are normally distributed with mean=250sec. If a song
lasting 260sec has a Z value of 1.15, what is the standard
2. z = -2.054 deviation of the distribution?

3. X = 3.42

4. sd = 2.4

5. mean = 128.808
The temperature in Auckland has mean 14degC and sd 5degC.

Find the probability the temperature in Auckland is between 14 and 20


degC

First: Use your Calculator Then: Use the Standard Normal


● Sketch ● Calculate Z-score z=
● NcD menu with ● NcD menu with mean
mean = 14 and sd = 5 = 0 and sd = 1
Normal Distribution
Lesson 6
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR

Tues 30/8
Remember!
NcD Calculations Inverse Calculations
We have the value, we need the probability We have the probability, we need the value

Z-Scores
We are missing the mean or the
standard deviation, so we can’t
use our calculator easily.
The Standard Normal Curve
We standardise our question and force it to be mean = 0 s.d. = 1
This tells us how many standard deviations we are away from the mean.

In this example an x-value of 1070 has a z-score of 3 (1070 is 3sd above the mean)
Another example, an x-value of 990 has a z-score of -1 (990 is 1sd below the mean)
The Standard Normal Curve
We can use the formula to show other x-values and z-
scores that don’t fall nicely on the standard deviation
lines:
E.g. An x-value of 1036 has a z-score of
The temperature in Auckland has mean 14degC and sd 5degC.

Find the probability the temperature in Auckland is between 14 and 20


degC

First: Use your Calculator Then: Use the Standard Normal


● Sketch ● Calculate Z-score z=
● NcD menu with ● NcD menu with mean
mean = 14 and sd = 5 = 0 and sd = 1
Finding mean or standard deviation

Both the NcD and Inverse menus on your calculator require you to input mean and
standard deviation. So, if you are trying to FIND mean or standard deviation you
can’t use the calculator directly.

You first use the inverse menu with a standard normal distribution (mean=0,
sd=1) to find the z-score, then use the formula to find the missing parameter:

Steps:
1. Sketch
2. Inverse menu with mean=0, sd=1 to find z-score
3. Substitute into formula and solve
Finding mean or standard deviation
Steps:
1. Sketch
2. Inverse menu with mean=0, sd=1 to find z-score
3. Substitute into formula and solve

E.g. A normal distribution has a mean of 60. If 20% of the data lies above 70, find
the standard deviation.
Finding mean or standard deviation
Steps:
1. Sketch
2. Inverse menu with mean=0, sd=1 to find z-score
3. Substitute into formula and solve

E.g. A normal distribution has a mean of 60. If 20% of the data lies above 70, find
the standard deviation.

This means an X value


of 70 matches a Z-
score of 0.8416 for this
distribution
Finding mean or standard deviation
Both the NcD and Inverse menus on your calculator require you to input mean and
standard deviation. So, if you are trying to FIND mean or standard deviation you
can’t use the calculator directly.

You first use the inverse menu with a standard normal distribution (mean=0,
sd=1) to find the z-score, then use the formula to find the missing parameter:

Steps:
1. Sketch
2. Inverse menu with mean=0, sd=1 to find z-score
3. Substitute into formula and solve
Finding mean or standard deviation
Steps:
E.g. A normal distribution has a standard 1. Sketch
deviation of 3.6. If 35% of the data lies below 2. Inverse menu with mean=0, sd=1
to find z-score
10.4, find the mean. 3. Substitute into formula and solve

Follow the steps to answer this: A


normal distribution has a mean of
782. If 12% of the data is above 806,
find the standard deviation.
Finding mean or standard deviation
Steps:
Follow the steps to answer this: A 1. Sketch
normal distribution has a mean of 2. Inverse menu with mean=0, sd=1
782. If 12% of the data is above 806, to find z-score
3. Substitute into formula and solve
find the standard deviation.
Finding mean or standard deviation
Steps:
A normal distribution has a mean of 150. If 35% of 1. Sketch the
data lies below 100, find the standard deviation. 2. Inverse menu
with mean=0,
sd=1 to find z-
A normal distribution has a standard deviation of 2.5 score If
3. Substitute into
40% of data lies above 33, find the mean. formula and solve

A normal distribution has a mean of 1340. If the middle 70% of data lies between
1300 and 1380, find the standard deviation.
Finding mean or standard deviation
A normal distribution has a mean of 150. If 35% of the
data lies below 100, find the standard deviation.

A normal distribution has a standard deviation of 2.5 If 40%


of data lies above 33, find the mean.

A normal distribution has a mean of 1340. If the middle 70% of data lies between
1300 and 1380, find the standard deviation.
Finding mean or standard deviation -
more practice
Finding mean or standard deviation -
more practice
Normal Distribution
Lesson 7
You will need your GRAPHICS CALCULATOR
Our
f
Weds 31/8 new inal less
cont on o
who e f
le ye nt for th
ar ! e
Comparing experimental to theoretical distributions

- Remember that the normal distribution is just a model of a situation, the real data
is unlikely to match PERFECTLY

- A normal distribution has two parameters - mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ)

- The mean of any normal distribution will be the same as the mode and the
median, because it is symmetrical

- The standard deviation can be estimated as being approximately one sixth (⅙) of
the range of the distribution (because we know that 99% of the distribution will lie
within 3 standard deviations either side of the mean)
For example, estimate mean and standard deviation
Highest point is when
weight is 4050g, so mean
is also 4050g

Range is approximately
4350g - 3750g = 600g

Therefore standard
deviation is 600÷6 = 100g

μ=4050g and σ=100g

6 standard deviations (3 each side of mean)


Comparing experimental to theoretical distributions
We want to compare the
theoretical model (bell
curve) to an experimental
distribution (actual data in
the histogram). This will
help us to know if the
model is a good one.

This kind of comparison


question is nearly always
in the exam, and is worth
Excellence.
Sample Exam Question (2017 Q 3)
When salmon fish are
harvested, the weights
of the salmon are
expected to have the
probability distribution
shown in Figure 1
Once harvested, a
random sample of
50 salmon was
taken and weighed.

A histogram of the
weights of the
sampled salmon is
shown in Figure 2.
Reading the Histogram
i) What proportion
of the 50 salmon in
14 the sample had
weights which
10 exceeded 4000
7 grams?
4 7+14+10+4 = 35

So 35/50 (70%)
exceeded 4000g
Comparing the histogram and the bell curve
ii) Compare the probability distribution and the histogram that resulted from the
sample results. In your answer you should consider the shape, centre, and spread
of both distributions, and should provide numerical evidence where appropriate.

To answer this question we need to calculate some statistics for the histogram

We’ll calculate the mode, mean, median, range and standard deviation so that we
have the numerical evidence they require
Mode (easiest to do - often not worth any marks)
The distribution is
bimodal, with the
14 main peak at
4050-4100g and a
10 10 smaller peak at
7 3950-4000g

1 4 4
Median - quite easy to calculate
50 salmon total, so
the median will be
14 between the 25th
and 26th salmon.
10 10
Median is
7
somewhere between
1 4 4 4050 and 4100g
Mean - a long calculation
(3875 x 1 +
3925 x 4 +
14 3975 x 10 +
10 4025 x 7 +
10
4075 x 14 +
7
4125 x 10 +
1 4 4
4175 x 4) ÷ 50

=4050g
Histogram Questions
https://www.transum.org/Maths/Exercise/Histogram/Default.asp?Level=2

Have a go, use your calculator, press “Check” at the bottom of the page after each
question to see if you got it correct.

Ask me a question if you get stuck!


Back to the question
ii) Compare the
probability distribution
and the histogram that
resulted from the sample
results. In your answer
you should consider the
shape, centre, and
spread of both
distributions, and should
provide numerical
evidence where
appropriate.
Back to the question (numerical evidence highlighted)
ii) Compare the probability distribution and the histogram that resulted from the
sample results. In your answer you should consider the shape, centre, and spread
of both distributions, and should provide numerical evidence where appropriate.

Centre

1) The median of the theoretical distribution of salmon weights is 4050g but the
median of the experimental distribution is more than 4050g

2) The mean of the theoretical distribution of salmon weights is 4050g which is the
same as the mean of the experimental distribution (4050g)
Back to the question (numerical evidence highlighted)
ii) Compare the probability distribution and the histogram that resulted from the
sample results. In your answer you should consider the shape, centre, and spread
of both distributions, and should provide numerical evidence where appropriate.

Shape

1) The theoretical distribution of salmon weights is symmetrical but the


experimental is not symmetrical (skewed to the left)

2) Mean, median and mode are all same (4050g) for theoretical but they are not all
the same in the experimental (4050g vs various) so experimental is skewed.
Theoretical is unimodal (4050g) but experimental is bimodal (3950g - 4000g and
4050g - 4100g)
Back to the question (numerical evidence highlighted)
ii) Compare the probability distribution and the histogram that resulted from the
sample results. In your answer you should consider the shape, centre, and spread
of both distributions, and should provide numerical evidence where appropriate.

Spread

1) The range of the theoretical distribution of salmon weights is 600g but the
range of the experimental distribution is only 350g

2) The standard deviation of the theoretical distribution of salmon weights is


approximately 100g (600g/6) but the standard deviation of the experimental
distribution is only about 58g (350g/6)
Back to the question (numerical evidence highlighted)
ii) Compare the probability distribution and the histogram that resulted from the
sample results. In your answer you should consider the shape, centre, and spread
of both distributions, and should provide numerical evidence where appropriate.

Other proportions - pick any value to use

1) 70% of the experimental distribution of salmon weights exceeded 4000g (from


the achieved question at the start - reading the histogram) which is virtually
identical to the theoretical proportion (69.1%, calculated using the NcD menu)
Marking the question
Achieved: Two valid comparative comments about different aspects of shape,
centre and spread.

Merit: Three valid comparative comments about different aspects of shape, centre
and spread with numerical justification for at least two comments.

Excellence: Four valid comparative comments about different


aspects of shape, centre and spread with numerical justification
for at least three comments.
Below is a histogram showing the heights (in cm) of the 665 students who attend a
local primary school. Would it be appropriate to model this distribution using a normal
curve with a mean height of 90cm and a standard deviation of 17cm?

Achieved questions to get you thinking about the data:

1) What proportion of the students are taller than


120 cm?

2) What percentage of the students are between 80


to 100cm tall?
Below is a histogram showing the heights (in cm) of the 665 students who attend a
local primary school. Would it be appropriate to model this distribution using a normal
curve with a mean height of 90cm and a standard deviation of 17cm?
Consider the following points in your discussion:

1. Mean, median and mode


2. Bell curve and symmetry
3. Range and standard deviation
4. Proportion calculation

Remember to make a final call at the end -


“yes the model is appropriate” or “no it is not”.
Start with mean, median and mode
calculations.

For the histogram:

For the bell curve:

Comparative sentence:
Mean, median and mode calculations.

Histogram: The mean: (4x45 + 11x55 + 54x65 +


108x75 + 149x85 + 133x95 + 81x105 + 67x115 +
37x125 + 12x135 + 7x145 + 1x155 + 1x165) ÷ 665
= 92.46cm
The median: 665÷2 = 332.5 so the 333rd child,
somewhere between 90 and 100cm
The mode: Between 80 and 90cm

Bell curve: The mean, median and mode are always


the same - in this case 90cm

Comparative sentence: The histogram has a mean of 92.46cm, a little higher than the
model predicts. The histogram has a median somewhere between 90-100cm and a mode
somewhere between 80-90cm. These are reasonably close to the estimates of 90cm, but
the mean, median and mode are different, when the model says they should be the same.
Then talk about the general bell
curve shape and symmetry.

For the histogram:

For the bell curve:

Comparative sentence:
Then talk about the general bell
curve shape and symmetry.

For the histogram: Quite


symmetrical, slightly right skewed
perhaps. Single (unimodal) peak
close to the centre.

For the bell curve: Always a


perfectly symmetrical bell curve
with the single peak at the centre.

Comparative sentence: The


shape seems quite appropriate due
it being a unimodal symmetrical
distribution.
Then talk about spread (range and
SD), with calculations.

For the histogram:

For the bell curve:

Comparative sentence:
Then talk about spread (range and
SD) with calculations.

For the histogram: Range is 170 -


40 = 130 and SD is 130÷6 = 21.67

For the bell curve: Range is 141 -


39 = 102 and SD is 17

Comparative sentence: The range


in the histogram is slightly larger than
the bell curve, due to the two values
between 150-170. It would be a much
better match without these two
values. They are also causing the SD
to be slightly larger (21.67>17)
Next give an example or two of a
proportion calculation.

For the histogram:

For the bell curve:

Comparative sentence:
Next give an example or two of a proportion
calculation.

For the histogram: From the achieved questions,


58/665 (0.087) are above 120cm and 282/665
(0.424) are between 80-100cm

For the bell curve: Using NcD menu, 0.039 are


above 120cm and 0.444 are between 80-100cm

Comparative sentence: Proportions for 80-100cm


are similar between the bell curve and the model
(0.424 and 0.444) but proportions for taller students
are exaggerated in the histogram (0.087 compared to 0.039), due to
the factors previously discussed including slight right skew and extreme values
between 150-170cm.
Lastly, summarise whether you
think the model is a good fit for the
distribution:
Lastly, summarise whether you
think the model is a good fit for the
distribution:

Overall the model is a good fit for


the data. The mean, median and
mode were all close to 90cm, the
general shape is unimodal and
symmetrical, and (apart from the
spread being slightly extended due
to the two heights above 150cm)
the range and SD were similar to
the model.

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