Probability

Probability
 The term probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty.

 In any situation in which one of a number of possible outcomes may occur,

the discipline of probability provides methods for quantifying the chances,
or likelihoods, associated with the various outcomes.
Probability

Weather Forecasting Stock Market

Vote

Flipping a coin or Dice Are we likely to die in an accident?

The Sample Space of an Experiment
 The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that
experiment.

One such experiment consists of examining a single fuse to see whether it is

defective. The sample space for this experiment is {N,D}.

The gender of the next child born at the local hospital {M,F}
 The Sample Space of an Experiment
Example: Two gas stations are located at a certain intersection. Each one has six gas
pumps. Consider the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a particular
time of day is determined for each of the stations. An experimental outcome specifies
how many pumps are in use at the first station and how many are in use at the second
one.
Events
 An event is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in the sample space .

An event is simple if it consists of exactly one outcome and compound if it consists

of more than one outcome.
Example 2: When the number of pumps in use at each of two six-pump gas stations
is observed, there are 49 possible outcomes, so there are 49 simple events.

Compound
Some Relations from Set Theory

 The Complement

 The Union

 The Intersection
The null event
 The event consisting of no outcomes whatsoever.
 Mutually exclusive or disjoint events.
Axioms of probability
 An axiom, postulate, or assumption is a statement that is taken to be true,
to serve as a premise or starting point for further reasoning and
arguments.
Interpreting probability
 The ratio n(A)/n is called the relative frequency of occurrence of the event A in
the sequence of n replications.

For example, let A be the event that a package sent within the state of California for
2nd day delivery actually arrives within one day. The results from sending 10 such
packages (the first 10 replications) are as follows-

Relative frequency of A ?????

Significance ???
Interpreting Probability
 Suppose that probabilities are assigned to events in accordance with their limiting
relative frequencies.

Then a statement such as “the probability of a package being delivered within one day of
mailing is .6” means that of a large number of mailed packages, roughly 60% will arrive
within one day………….
More Probability Properties
Probability
Example: In a certain residential suburb, 60% of all households get Internet service
from the local cable company, 80% get television service from that company, and 50%
get both services from that company. If a household is randomly selected, what is the
probability that it gets at least one of these two services from the company, and what
is the probability that it gets exactly one of these services from the company?

Try Yourself!
Probability
Example: You have six unread mysteries on your bookshelf and six unread science
fiction books. The first three of each type are hardcover, and the last three are
paperback. Consider randomly selecting one of the six mysteries and then randomly
selecting one of the six science fiction books to take on a post-finals vacation, the
probability of the event A that both selected books are paperbacks is-

Try Yourself!
Probability
Example: The route used by a certain motorist in commuting to work contains two
intersections with traffic signals. The probability that he must stop at the first signal
is .4, the analogous probability for the second signal is .5, and the probability that he
must stop at at least one of the two signals is .6. What is the probability that he must
stop

a. at both signals?
b. at the first signal but not at the second one?
c. at exactly one signal?

Try Yourself!
The Product Rule for Ordered Pairs

 An alternative interpretation involves carrying out an operation that consists

of two stages.

If the first stage can be performed in any one of n1 ways, and for each such way
there are n2 ways to perform the second stage, then n1n2 is the number of
ways of carrying out the two stages in sequence.
The Product Rule for Ordered Pairs
Example: A homeowner doing some remodeling requires the services of both a
plumbing contractor and an electrical contractor. If there are 12 plumbing contractors
and 9 electrical contractors available in the area, in how many ways can the contractors
be chosen?
The Product Rule for Ordered Pairs
Example: A family has just moved to a new city and requires the services of both an
obstetrician and a pediatrician. There are two easily accessible medical clinics, each
having two obstetricians and three pediatricians. The family will obtain maximum
health insurance benefits by joining a clinic and selecting both doctors from that clinic.
In how many ways can this be done?

Tree Diagram
A More General Product Rule
Permutations and Combinations
An ordered subset is called a permutation
An unordered subset is called a combination
Permutations and Combinations
Example: A particular iPod playlist contains 100 songs, 10 of which are by the Beatles.
Suppose the shuffle feature is used to play the songs in random order. What is the
probability that the first Beatles song heard is the fifth song played?
Permutations and Combinations
Example: A university warehouse has received a shipment of 25 printers, of which 10
are laser printers and 15 are inkjet models. If 6 of these 25 are selected at random to be
checked by a particular technician, what is the probability that exactly 3 of those
selected are laser printers (so that the other 3 are inkjets)?

Try Yourself!
Permutations and Combinations
Example: A box in a certain supply room contains four 40-W lightbulbs, five 60-W
bulbs, and six 75-W bulbs. Suppose that three bulbs are randomly selected.

a. What is the probability that exactly two of the selected bulbs are rated 75-W?
b. What is the probability that all three of the selected bulbs have the same rating?
c. What is the probability that one bulb of each type is selected?
d. Suppose now that bulbs are to be selected one by one until a 75-W bulb is
found. What is the probability that it is necessary to examine at least six bulbs?

Try Yourself!
Conditional Probability

B is the “conditioning event”.

Conditional Probability
Example: Suppose that of all individuals buying a certain digital camera, 60% include
an optional memory card in their purchase, 40% include an extra battery, and 30%
include both a card and battery. Given that the selected individual purchased an
extra battery, what is the probability that an optional card was also purchased?
The Multiplication Rule
 Probability
Example: A chain of video stores sells three different brands of DVD players. Of its DVD
player sales, 50% are brand 1 (the least expensive), 30% are brand 2, and 20% are brand 3.
Each manufacturer offers a 1-year warranty on parts and labor. It is known that 25% of
brand 1’s DVD players require warranty repair work, whereas the corresponding
percentages for brands 2 and 3 are 20% and 10%, respectively.

1. What is the probability that a randomly selected purchaser has bought a brand 1 DVD
player that will need repair while under warranty?

2. What is the probability that a randomly selected purchaser has a DVD player that will
need repair while under warranty?

3. If a customer returns to the store with a DVD player that needs warranty repair work,
what is the probability that it is a brand 1 DVD player? A brand 2 DVD player? A brand
3 DVD player?
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ Theorem
Example: Only 1 in 1000 adults is afflicted with a rare disease for which a
diagnostic test has been developed. The test is such that when an individual
actually has the disease, a positive result will occur 99% of the time, whereas an
individual without the disease will show a positive test result only 2% of the time.
If a randomly selected individual is tested and the result is positive, what is the
probability that the individual has the disease?
Bayes’ Theorem
Example: A company that manufactures video cameras produces a basic
model and a deluxe model. Over the past year, 40% of the cameras sold
have been of the basic model. Of those buying the basic model, 30%
purchase an extended warranty, whereas 50% of all deluxe purchasers do
so. If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended
warranty, how likely is it that he or she has a basic model?
Independence
Independence
Example: Each day, Monday through Friday, a batch of components sent by a
first supplier arrives at a certain inspection facility. Two days a week, a batch
also arrives from a second supplier. Eighty percent of all supplier 1’s batches
pass inspection, and 90% of supplier 2’s do likewise. What is the probability that,
on a randomly selected day, two batches pass inspection?
Independence
Example: An aircraft seam requires 25 rivets. The seam will have to be
reworked if any of these rivets is defective. Suppose rivets are defective
independently of one another, each with the same probability. a. If 20% of
all seams need reworking, what is the probability that a rivet is defective?
b. How small should the probability of a defective rivet be to ensure that
only 10% of all seams need reworking?
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