Hypothesis Testing

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 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether

a statement about the value of a population
parameter should or should not be rejected.
 The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a tentative
assumption about a population parameter.
 The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the
opposite of what is stated in the null hypothesis.
 Hypothesis testing is similar to a criminal trial. The
hypotheses are:
H0: The defendant is innocent
Ha: The defendant is guilty

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 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Testing Research Hypotheses

 The research hypothesis should be expressed as
the alternative hypothesis.
 The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true
comes from sample data that contradict the null
hypothesis.

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 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Testing the Validity of a Claim

 Manufacturers’ claims are usually given the
benefit of the doubt and stated as the null
hypothesis.
 The conclusion that the claim is false comes from
sample data that contradict the null hypothesis.

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 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Testing in Decision-Making Situations

 A decision maker might have to choose between
two courses of action, one associated with the null
hypothesis and another associated with the
alternative hypothesis.
 Example: Accepting a shipment of goods from a
supplier or returning the shipment of goods to the
supplier.

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A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Mean
 The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
 In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean  must take one of the following
three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).
H0:  > 0 H0:  < 0 H0:  = 0
Ha:  < 0 Ha:  > 0 H :  
a 0

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 Problem

The sample mean is = 78695 Significance level = 0.05

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 Type I and Type II Errors

 Since hypothesis tests are based on sample data, we

must allow for the possibility of errors.
 A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
 A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.
 The person conducting the hypothesis test specifies
the maximum allowable probability of making a
Type I error, denoted by  and called the level of
significance.


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 The Use of p-Values

 The p-value is the probability of obtaining a sample

result that is at least as unlikely as what is observed.
 The p-value can be used to make the decision in a
hypothesis test by noting that:
 if the p-value is less than the level of significance
, the value of the test statistic is in the rejection
region.
 if the p-value is greater than or equal to , the
value of the test statistic is not in the rejection
region.
 Reject H0 if the p-value < .

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 The Steps of Hypothesis Testing

 Determine the appropriate hypotheses.

 Select the test statistic for deciding whether or not to
reject the null hypothesis.
 Specify the level of significance  for the test.
 Use to develop the rule for rejecting H0.
 Collect the sample data and compute the value of the
test statistic.
 a) Compare the test statistic to the critical value(s) in
the rejection rule, or
b) Compute the p-value based on the test statistic and
compare it to to determine whether or not to reject
H 0.

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 One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
 Hypotheses
H0:   or H0: 
Ha:
 Ha:
 Test Statistic
x  0 x  0Unknown
z  Known z
/ n s/ n

 Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if z > zReject H0 if z < -
z
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 Example: Metro EMS

A major west coast city provides one of the

most comprehensive emergency medical services in
the world. Operating in a multiple hospital system
with approximately 20 mobile medical units, the
service goal is to respond to medical emergencies
with a mean time of 12 minutes or less.
The director of medical services wants to
formulate a hypothesis test that could use a sample of
emergency response times to determine whether or
not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being
achieved.
Let n = 40, Sample Mean = 13.25 minutes,
population SD = 3.2 minutes

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 Example: Metro EMS

 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Hypotheses Conclusion and Action
H0:  The emergency service is
meeting
the response goal; no follow-up
action is necessary.
Ha: The emergency service is not
meeting the response goal;
appropriate follow-up action is
necessary.
Where:  = mean response time for the
population
of medical emergency requests. Slide
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 Example: Metro EMS

 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Large n

Let  = P(Type I Error) = .05

Sampling distribution
of x (assuming H0 is
true and  = 12) Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0


1.645 x
x
12 c
(Critical value)

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 Example: Metro EMS

 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Large n

Let n = 40, x = 13.25 minutes, s = 3.2 minutes
(The sample standard deviation s can be used to
estimate the population standard deviation .)
x   13. 25  12
z   2. 47
 / n 3. 2 / 40
Since 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H0.
Conclusion: We are 95% confident that Metro EMS
is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes;
appropriate action should be taken to improve
service.

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 Example: Glow Toothpaste

 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large n

The production line for Glow toothpaste is
designed to fill tubes of toothpaste with a mean
weight of 6 ounces.
Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be
selected in order to check the filling process. Quality
assurance procedures call for the continuation of the
filling process if the sample results are consistent with
the assumption that the mean filling weight for the
population of toothpaste tubes is 6 ounces; otherwise
the filling process will be stopped and adjusted. Let n
= 30, Sample Mean = 6.1 ounces, Population SD
= .2 ounces. Significance level – 0.05

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 Example: Glow Toothpaste

 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large n

A hypothesis test about the population mean
can be used to help determine when the filling process
should continue operating and when it should be
stopped and corrected.
 Hypotheses
H0:  
 H : 
 a

 Rejection Rule
ssuming a .05 level of significance,
Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or if z > 1.96

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 Example: Glow Toothpaste

 Two-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Large n

Sampling distribution
of x (assuming H0 is
true and  = 6)

Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 Reject H0

 

z
-1.96 0 1.96

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 Example: Glow Toothpaste

 Two-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Large n

Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 ounces and standard
deviation of 0.2 ounces.
Let n x= 30, = 6.1 ounces, s = .2 ounces
x   0 6.1  6
z   2.74
s / n .2 / 30
Since 2.74 > 1.96, we reject H0.
Conclusion: We are 95% confident that the mean
filling weight of the toothpaste tubes is not 6 ounces.
The filling process should be stopped and the filling
mechanism adjusted.
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 Tests about a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case (n < 30)
 Test Statistic  Known  Unknown
x  0 x  0
t t
/ n s/ n
This test statistic has a t distribution with n - 1
degrees of freedom.
 Rejection Rule
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H0:  Reject H0 if t > t
H0:  Reject H0 if t < -t
H0:  Reject H0 if |t| > t

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 p -Values and the t Distribution

 The format of the t distribution table provided in

most statistics textbooks does not have sufficient
detail to determine the exact p-value for a hypothesis
test.
 However, we can still use the t distribution table to
identify a range for the p-value.
 An advantage of computer software packages is that
the computer output will provide the p-value for the
t distribution.

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 Example: Highway Patrol

 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small n

A State Highway Patrol periodically samples
vehicle speeds at various locations on a particular
roadway. The sample of vehicle speeds is used to
test the hypothesis
H0: m < 65.
The locations where H0 is rejected are deemed the
best locations for radar traps.
At Location F, a sample of 16 vehicles shows a
mean speed of 68.2 mph with a standard deviation of
3.8 mph. Use an a = .05 to test the hypothesis.

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 Example: Highway Patrol

 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small n

Let n = 16,x = 68.2 mph, s = 3.8 mph
a = .05, d.f. = 16-1 = 15, ta = 1.753
x   0 68.2  65
t   3.37
s / n 3.8 / 16
Since 3.37 > 1.753, we reject H0.
Conclusion: We are 95% confident that the mean
speed of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65
mph. Location F is a good candidate for a radar trap.

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 Summary of Test Statistics to be Used in a
Hypothesis Test about a Population Mean
Yes No
n > 30 ?
No
s known ? Popul.
Yes
approx.
Yes normal
Use s to
estimate s No ?
s known ?
No
Yes Use s to
estimate s

x  x  x  x  Increase n
z z z t
/ n s/ n / n s/ n to > 30

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