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Chapter 1 - The Roles of Statistics in Engineering

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19 views36 pages

Chapter 1 - The Roles of Statistics in Engineering

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funnymine04
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© © All Rights Reserved
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PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Evaluation Strategy
 Must attend more than 80% of contact hours
 Evaluating
– 03 Progress tests:  30%
– 02 Assignments:  20%
– 01 computer project:  15%
– Final Exam (FE):  35%
 Pass: Every on-going assessment component > 0
and Final Exam score ≥ 4 (of 10)
and Final Result ≥ 5
Retake only the Final Exam when not passed
Materials
Course description
Chapter 1: The Roles of Statistics in Engineering
Chapter 2: Probability
Chapter 3: Discrete Random Variables and Probability
Distribution
Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and
Probability
Chapter 6: Descriptive Statistics
Chapter 7: Point Estimation of Parameters
Chapter 8: Statistical Intervals for a Single Sample
Chapter 9: Test of Hypotheses for a Single Sample
Chapter 10: Statistical Inference for Two Samples
Chapter 11: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation
Chapter 1: THE ROLES OF STATISTICS
IN ENGINEERING
Chapter outline
1.1 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking.
1.2 Collecting Engineering Data.
1.3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models.
1.4 Probability and Probability Models.
Objectives
 The role that statistics
 Making engineering decisions
 Enumerative and analytical studies
 Methods of data collection
 The advantages of designed experiments
 Mechanistic models vs empirical models
 Why probability models ?
Descriptive Statistics
Involves
- Collecting data
- Organizing or summarizing data.
- Presenting data
Purpose
- Describe the situation.
Inferential Statistics
Involves
- Estimation
- Hypothesis testing.
Purpose
- Draw conclusions
- Inferrences
- About population
- Characteristics
Statistics in Engineering

Problems of an engineer
• Refining existing products
• Designing new products or processes
Statistics in Engineering

The field of Statistics deals with the collection,


presentation, analysis, and use of data to
• Make decisions
• Solve problems
• Design products and processes
1-1 Statistics in Engineering

•Statistical techniques are useful for describing and


understanding variability.
•By variability, we mean successive observations of a
system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same
result.
•Statistics gives us a framework for describing this
variability and for learning about potential sources of
variability.
1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

An engineer is designing a nylon connector to be used in an


automotive engine application. The engineer is considering
establishing the design specification on wall thickness at 3/32
inch but is somewhat uncertain about the effect of this decision
on the connector pull-off force. If the pull-off force is too low,
the connector may fail when it is installed in an engine. Eight
prototype units are produced and their pull-off forces measured
(in pounds): 12.6, 12.9, 13.4, 12.3, 13.6, 13.5, 12.6, 13.1.
1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example
•The dot diagram is a very useful plot for displaying a small
body of data - say up to about 20 observations.
• This plot allows us to see easily two features of the data; the
location, or the middle, and the scatter or variability.
1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example
• The engineer considers an alternate design and eight prototypes
are built and pull-off force measured.
• The dot diagram can be used to compare two sets of data

Figure 1-3 Dot diagram of pull-off force for two


wall thicknesses.
1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

•Since pull-off force varies or exhibits variability, it is a


random variable.
• A random variable, X, can be model by
X=+
where  is a constant and  a random disturbance.
1-1 Statistics in Engineering
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

Three basic methods for collecting data:


– A retrospective study using historical data
– An observational study
– A designed experiment
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

– A retrospective study using historical data


would use either all or a sample of the
historical process data archived over
some period of time.
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

– An observational study: the engineer


observes the process or population,
disturbing it
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

– A designed experiment: the engineer


makes deliberate in the controlable
variables of the system, observes the
resulting system output data
1-2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-9 A time series plot of concentration provides


more information than a dot diagram.
1-2 Observing Processes Over Time
Whenever data are collected over time it is important to plot
the data over time. Phenomena that might affect the system
or process often become more visible in a time-oriented plot
and the concept of stability can be better judged.

Figure 1-8 The dot diagram illustrates variation but does


not identify the problem.
1-2 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-14 Enumerative versus analytic study.


1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

A mechanistic model is built from our underlying


knowledge of the basic physical mechanism that relates
several variables.
Example: Ohm’s Law
Current = voltage/resistance
I = E/R
I = E/R + 
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

An empirical model is built from our engineering and


scientific knowledge of the phenomenon, but is not
directly developed from our theoretical or first-
principles understanding of the underlying mechanism.
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

Example
Suppose we are interested in the number average molecular
weight (Mn) of a polymer. Now we know that Mn is related to the
viscosity of the material (V), and it also depends on the amount of
catalyst (C) and the temperature (T ) in the polymerization
reactor when the material is manufactured. The relationship
between Mn and these variables is

Mn = f(V,C,T)
say, where the form of the function f is unknown.

where the ’s are unknown parameters.


1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

In general, this type of empirical model is called a


regression model.

The estimated regression line is given by


Figure 1-15 Three-dimensional plot of the wire and pull
strength data.
1-4 Probability and Probability Models

Figure 1-16 Plot of the predicted values of pull strength


from the empirical model.
1-4 Probability and Probability Models

•Probability models help quantify the


risks involved in statistical inference, that
is, risks involved in decisions made every
day.
• Probability provides the framework for
the study and application of statistics.

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