Deduction and

Induction

(WT: Ch3 39-48)

Hurley: 1.3
 Deduction
 Deductive arguments are intended to provide conclusive proof of
their conclusions.
 The make the rather strong claim that, so long as its premises are true, it would
be impossible for its conclusion to be false.
 Suppose someone claims that Socrates has to be mortal, because he is human,
and all humans are mortal.
 This argument is deductive because the arguer doesn’t intend to leave any
room for doubt: As a human, Socrates must be mortal, if they all are mortal.
 Note, however, that the premises of a deductive argument don’t
actually have to be true.
 I might claim that You were abducted by aliens, because you have scars behind
your neck, and if you have scars like that, then you must have been abducted.
 The arguer’s conditional about neck-scars is probably false, but they believe it
is absolutely true and intend it as proof for their conclusion.
 Nor does an argument’s conclusion actually have to follow with
necessity to make it deductive.
 It simply has to be an attempt to prove its conclusion.
 Someone who argues that Socrates must be a man, because he was mortal, is
wrong—Socrates could be a mortal dog—but the argument is still deductive.
Deductive Types
 Deductive arguments come in a variety of recognizable types, which might
help you identify them when it isn’t clear how strongly the conclusion is
intended to follow.
 Argument based on math
 3,568 must be an even number, because it is divisible by 2.
 Arguments from definition
 Your sister just had a new new baby girl. That makes her your niece.
 Categorical syllogisms are 3-sentence arguments that depend on the relationship
of the categories the terms belong to.
 They will generally include statements with the qualifiers: All, No, or Some, as in ‘All men
are mortal’
 It is demonstrating the relationship between the categories of mortal beings, human
beings, and people named Socrates.
 Hypothetical syllogisms are 3-sentence arguments with one or more conditional
statement.
 The premise, ‘If someone has neck-scars, then they’ve been abducted,’ makes that argument a
hypothetical syllogism.
 Disjunctive syllogisms are 3-sentence arguments with an ‘or’ statement
 Either Aaron Rodgers stays out of the game with a knee injury or the Bears will lose. AR12
did not stay out of the game, so the Bears lost.
 Induction
 Inductive arguments are intended, not to prove their conclusions,
but to show that they are probable or most likely true.
We don’t know how old Socrates was when he died, but given that no human has
ever lived more than 150 years, we can reasonably conclude he was less than 150 .
 Of course, just as with deductive arguments, it is more about what
you are trying to do more than whether you are successful.
 As long as you are trying to show your conclusion is probably true, you
are offering an inductive argument even when your attempt is
unsuccessful or based on bad in formation.
I got the flu this year, even though I got a flu shot. Therefore, don’t bother getting
vaccines, because they probably won’t help you either.
 Anecdotal evidence like this isn’t reliable, but the people who base
claims on them are still arguing inductively.
 Be careful not confuse rhetorical flourishes and hyperbole with
actual intent.
 Sometimes an author will state their conclusions more strongly than
they are actually intended to follow.
Inductive Types
 Common Types of Inductive Arguments include:
 Predictions
 The Bears will probably not make it to the playoffs this year, with their QB.
 Arguments from Analogy draw on a similarity or analogy that is alleged
to hold between to things or groups.
 The meerkat is closely related to the suricat. The suricat thrives on beetle
larvae. Therefore, probably the meerkat thrives on beetle larvae too.
 Generalization is an attempt to conclude something about a whole group
from a sample.
 Oranges must be in season, this last bag was especially sweet.
 Arguments from Authority
 I think we should take climate change seriously, because most climate
scientists agree that it is occurring and that we will be sorry if we don’t.
 Arguments based on signs
 The clock on the wall says 3 o’clock, so it probably is.
 Causal inferences
 It must have lightening-ed even though I didn’t see it, because I just heard
thunder.
1.3 Practice
 I. Deductive or Inductive? Why? (indicator, strength of
inferential link, form)
2. The plaque on the leaning tower of Pisa says that Galileo
performed experiments there with falling objects. It must be
the case that Galileo did indeed perform those experiments.
 Inductive, based on signs
5. Amoco, Exxon, and Texaco are all listed on the NYSE. It must
be the case that all major American oil companies are listed
there.
Inductive generalization
8. The Matterhorn is higher than Mt. Whitney, and Mt.
Whitney is higher than Mount Rainier. The obvious conclusion
is that the Matterhorn is higher than Mt. Rainier.
 Deductive, follows with necessity
14. If Alexander the Great died from typhoid fever, then he
became infected in India. He did die from typhoid fever.
Therefore, he became infected India.
 Deductive, hypothetical syllogism
More 1.3 Practice
6. The longer the pendulum is, the longer it takes to swing.
Therefore, when the pendulum of a clock is lengthened, the clock
slows down.
Deductive math?
11. Cholesterol is endogenous with humans. Therefore, it is
manufactured within the human body.
Deductive definition
12. Either classical culture originated in Greece, or it originated in
Egypt. Classical culture does not derive from Egypt. Therefore it
must have come, originally from Greece.
Deductive disjunctive syllogism
23. Given present growth rates in underdeveloped countries, the
limited practice of birth control, and the difficulty of slowing the
current growth momentum, it can be said with virtual certainty
that none of the people now reading this will ever live in a world
where population growth is not growing.
Inductive prediction