SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

CIA – 3 Presentation
On
“Topic : Probability and Statistics”
By
Name: Bhupesh Zambare Roll no.: 2252 PRN: 240101461035
Name: Rohit Ahire Roll no.:2239 PRN: 240101461046
Name: Gopal Mahajan Roll no.: 2241 PRN: 240101461039

Academic Year : 2024 – 25

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Integrating
Probability
and Statistics
Probability :
Definition :
Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood or
chance of different outcomes occurring in uncertain situations. It
quantifies uncertainty by assigning a numerical value between 0 and 1
to an event

Importance of Probability :
Probability is indeed factor for fields like Decision making, Risk
assessment, Statistical inference, Predictive Modeling and in
Understanding Randomness

Applications of probability :
There are various fields like Finance, Healthcare, Engineering, Insurance,
Sports, Gaming and Gambling, Machine Learning and AI, Weather
Forecasting etc. were probability plays critical role ,healping to manage
uncertainty and make informed decisions
Introduction to Statistics :
•Definition:
• Statistics is a branch of mathematics that deals with collecting, analyzing, interpreting,
presenting, and organizing data.
• It provides tools to summarize complex data and make decisions based on quantitative
analysis.

•Importance:
• Data-Driven Decision Making: In today's world, statistics is essential for understanding
data trends, making predictions, and improving decision-making.
• Informed Choices: From policy decisions to business strategies, statistics helps make
informed choices by revealing patterns, relationships, and risks in data.
• Risk Assessment: In fields like finance and healthcare, statistics are used to assess the
likelihood of events and outcomes.

•Applications:
• Business: Market research, consumer behavior, inventory control, and financial analysis.
• Healthcare: Clinical trials, disease outbreak predictions, and medical research analysis.
• Social Sciences: Analyzing social trends, voting behavior, and population studies.
• Government: Public policy, census data analysis, and budget forecasts.
• Education: Test scoring, student performance analysis, and curriculum effectiveness.
Measures of Central Tendency :
•Definition:
• Measures of central tendency are statistical metrics that describe the center or "average"
value of a dataset. These measures help to summarize a set of data with a single value
that represents the typical or central value.
•Types:
• Mean:
• The arithmetic average of all values in a dataset.
• Use Case: Useful when the data is symmetrically distributed and there are no extreme
outliers.
• Median:
• The middle value when the data is ordered in ascending or descending order.
• If there is an even number of data points, the median is the average of the two middle
values.
• Use Case: Preferred in datasets with skewed distributions or outliers.
• Mode:
• The value that occurs most frequently in a dataset.
• A dataset can have zero, one, or multiple modes (bimodal, multimodal).
• Use Case: Useful for categorical data or when identifying the most common value is
important.
•Usage:
• Helps in understanding the general trend or central value of the data.
Measures of Dispersion :
Definition:
•Measures that describe the spread or variability of a dataset, indicating how much the data points
differ from each other.

Types:
• Range:
• The difference between the maximum and minimum values in the dataset. It gives a
quick sense of the spread but can be influenced by outliers.
• Variance:
• The average of the squared differences from the mean, indicating how much the data
varies. A higher variance indicates greater dispersion.
• Standard Deviation:
• The square root of the variance; it provides a measure of the average distance of each
data point from the mean. It is widely used because it is in the same unit as the data.

Importance:
•Understanding dispersion is essential for assessing the reliability and variability of the data, which
can influence decision-making and predictions.
Correlation and Regression
Correlation:
Definition:
• A statistical measure that describes the strength and direction of a relationship
between two variables.
Coefficient (r):
• Ranges from -1 to +1; values close to +1 indicate a strong positive correlation, while
values close to -1 indicate a strong negative correlation. A value of 0 indicates no
correlation.
Regression:
Definition:
• A statistical method for modeling the relationship between a dependent variable and
one or more independent variables.
Linear Regression:
• The simplest form of regression, represented by the equation (Y = a + bX), where (Y)
is the dependent variable, (X) is the independent variable, (a) is the intercept, and (b)
is the slope. It predicts the value of Y based on the value of X.
Applications:
• Used in forecasting, risk assessment, and trend analysis across various fields.
Theorems of Probability :
•Addition Rule:
• For mutually exclusive events A and B:
• P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)
• This rule applies when events A and B cannot happen simultaneously (e.g.,
rolling a 3 or a 4 on a die).
•Multiplication Rule:
• For independent events A and B:
• P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B)P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)
• This rule applies when the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of
another (e.g., flipping a coin and rolling a die).
•Conditional Probability:
• The probability of an event A occurring given that event B has already occurred.
• Formula: P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)​
• Use Case: Calculating the probability of drawing a red card from a deck of cards,
given that the card is a face card.
Binomial Distribution :
•Definition:
• A discrete probability distribution that models the number of successes in a fixed
number of independent Bernoulli trials, where each trial has two possible outcomes
(success or failure).

•Parameters:
• n: The number of trials.
• p: The probability of success in a single trial.

•Formula:
• P(X=k)=(n/k)p^k(1−p)^n−k
• Where k is the number of successes, (n/k) is the binomial coefficient.
• Use Case: Modeling the number of heads when flipping a coin 10 times.
Poisson Distribution :
•Definition:
• A discrete probability distribution that models the number of events that occur within a
fixed interval of time or space, given the average number of events.

•Parameters:
• λ (lambda): The average number of events in the given interval.

•Formula:

• Where X is the number of events, λ is the expected number of events, and e is Euler's
number.
• Use Case: Modeling the number of customer arrivals at a store per hour or the number
of phone calls received by a call center.