Chapter 3

Probability
§ 3.1
Basic Concepts
of Probability
 Probability Experiments
A probability experiment is an action through which
specific results (counts, measurements or responses)
are obtained.
Example:
Rolling a die and observing the
number that is rolled is a
probability experiment.
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment
is the outcome.
The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is
the sample space.
Example:
The sample space when rolling a die has six
outcomes.
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
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 Events
An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a
subset of the sample space.
Events are
Example: represented by
A die is rolled. Event A uppercase
is rolling letters.
an even
number.
A simple event is an event that consists of a single
outcome.
Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
This is not a simple event because the outcomes
of event A are {2, 4, 6}.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 4

 Classical Probability
Classical (or theoretical) probability is used when
each outcome in a sample space is equally likely to
occur. The classical probability for event E is given by
Number of outcomes in event
P (E )  .
Total number of outcomes in sample space

Example:
A die is rolled.
Find the probability of Event A: rolling a 5.
There is one outcome in Event A: {5}
1
P(A) = 0.167
“Probability of 6
Event A.”

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 Empirical Probability
Empirical (or statistical) probability is based on
observations obtained from probability experiments.
The empirical frequency of an event E is the relative
frequency of event E.
Frequency of Event E
P (E ) 
Total frequency
f

n
Example:
A travel agent determines that in every 50
reservations she makes, 12 will be for a cruise.
What is the probability that the next reservation she
makes will be for a cruise?
12
P(cruise) = 0.24
50
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 6
 Law of Large Numbers
As an experiment is repeated over and over, the
empirical probability of an event approaches the
theoretical (actual) probability of the event.
Example:
Sally flips a coin 20 times and gets 3 heads. The
empirical probability is3 This is not
.
20
representative of the theoretical 1
probability which is
.
2
As the number of times Sally tosses the coin
increases, the law of large numbers indicates that
the empirical probability will get closer and closer to
the theoretical probability.
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 Probabilities with Frequency
Distributions
Example:
The following frequency distribution represents the
ages of 30 students in a statistics class. What is the
probability that a student is between 26 and 33
years old?
Ages Frequency, f
8
18 – 25 13 
P (age 26 to 33)
30
26 – 33 8
0.267
34 – 41 4
42 – 49 3
50 – 57 2
 f 30
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 Subjective Probability
Subjective probability results from intuition, educated
guesses, and estimates.
Example:
A business analyst predicts that the probability of a
certain union going on strike is 0.15.

Range of Probabilities Rule

The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1,
inclusive. That is
0  P(A)  1.
Impossible 0.5 Certain
to occur Even to occur
chance
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 Complementary Events
The complement of Event E is the set of all
outcomes in the sample space that are not
included in event E. (Denoted E′ and read “E
prime.”)
P(E) + P (E′ ) = 1 P(E) = 1 – P (E′ ) P (E′ ) = 1 – P(E)

Example:
There are 5 red chips, 4 blue chips, and 6 white
chips in a basket. Find the probability of randomly
selecting a chip that is not blue.
4
P (selecting a blue chip) 0.267

15
4 11
1 
P (not selecting a blue chip)  0.733
15 15
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 10
§ 3.2
Conditional
Probability and
the
Multiplication
Rule
 Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of an event
occurring, given that another event has already
occurred.
P (B | “Probability of B, given A”
A)
Example:
There are 5 red chip, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips
in a basket. Two chips are randomly selected. Find
the probability that the second chip is red given that
the first chip is blue. (Assume that the first chip is
not replaced.)
Because the first chip is selected and not
replaced, there are only 14 chips remaining.
5
P (selecting a red chip|first chip is  0.357
14
blue)
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 12
 Conditional Probability
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how
many hours a week they spent studying. The results are
in the table below. Find the probability that a student
spends more than 10 hours studying given that the
student is a male.
Less More
5 to 10 Total
then 5 than 10
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100
The sample space consists of the 49 male students.
Of these 49, 16 spend more than 10 hours a week
studying. 16
 0.327
P (more than 10 hours|male)
49
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 Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of
one of the events does not affect the probability of
the other event. Two events A and B are
independent if
P (B |A) = P (B) or if P (A |B) = P (A).
Events that are not independent are dependent.
Example:
Decide if the events are independent or dependent.
Selecting a diamond from a standard
deck of cards (A), putting it back in the 
deck, and then selecting a spade from the 
deck13
(B).1 13 1 The occurrence of A does
P (B A )   and P (B )   . not affect the probability
52 4 52 4
of B, so the events are
independent.
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 Multiplication Rule
The probability that two events, A and B will occur in
sequence is
P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B |A).
If event A and B are independent, then the rule can be
simplified to P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B).
Example:
Two cards are selected, without replacement, from a
deck. Find the probability of selecting a diamond,
and then selecting a spade.
Because the card is not replaced, the events are
dependent.
P (diamond and spade) = P (diamond) · P (spade |diamond)
13 13 169
   0.064
52 51 2652
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 15
 Multiplication Rule
Example:
A die is rolled and two coins are tossed.
Find the probability of rolling a 5, and flipping two
tails.
1
P (rolling a 5) = .
6
1
Whether or not the roll is a 5, P (Tail ) =,
2
so the events are independent.

P (5 and T and T ) = P (5)· P (T )· P (T )

1 1 1
  
6 2 2
1
 0.042
24
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 16
§ 3.3
The Addition
Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if
they cannot occur at the same time.

A and B

A
B A B

A and B are A and B are not

mutually exclusive. mutually exclusive.

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Mutually Exclusive Events
Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die.

Event B: Roll a 4 on a die.

A B
1
4
2

These events cannot happen at the same time,

so the events are mutually exclusive.
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Mutually Exclusive Events
Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards.

Event B: Select a heart from a deck of cards.

A J 9 2 B
3 10
J J A 7
K 4
J 5 8
6Q

Because the card can be a Jack and a heart at

the same time, the events are not mutually
exclusive.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 20
 The Addition Rule
The probability that event A or B will occur is given
by
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B ).
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the
rule can be simplified to P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B).
Example:
You roll a die. Find the probability that you roll a
number less than 3 or a 4.
The events are mutually
exclusive.
P (roll a number less than 3 or roll a 4)
= P (number is less than 3) + P
2 1 3
(4)
   0.5
6 6 6
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 21
 The Addition Rule
Example:
A card is randomly selected from a deck of cards. Find
the probability that the card is a Jack or the card is a
heart.
The events are not mutually exclusive because
the Jack of hearts can occur in both events.

P (select a Jack or select a heart)

= P (Jack) + P (heart) – P (Jack of
hearts)
4 13 1
  
52 52 52
16

52 0.308

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 22

 The Addition Rule
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how
many hours a week they spent studying. The results are
in the table below. Find the probability that a student
spends between 5 and 10 hours or more than 10 hours
studying. Less More
5 to 10 Total
then 5 than 10
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100

The events are mutually

exclusive.
P P (5 to10) + P
(5 to10 hours or more than 10 hours)
46 30 76
=    0.76 (10)
100 100 100
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§ 3.4
Counting
Principles
 Fundamental Counting
Principle
If one event can occur in m ways and a second
event can occur in n ways, the number of ways
the two events can occur in sequence is m· n.
This rule can be extended for any number of
events occurring in a sequence.
Example:
A meal consists of a main dish, a side dish, and a
dessert. How many different meals can be selected if
there are 4 main dishes, 2 side dishes and 5 desserts
available?
# of main # of side # of
dishes dishes desserts
4  2  5 = 40
There are 40 meals available.
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 Fundamental Counting
Principle
Example:
Two coins are flipped. How many different outcomes
are there? List the sample space.

Start
1 Coin
st

Tossed
Heads Tails 2 ways to flip the
2nd Coin coin
Tossed
Heads Tails Heads Tails 2 ways to flip the
coin

There are 2  2 = 4 different outcomes: {HH, HT, TH,

TT}.
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 Fundamental Counting
Principle
Example:
The access code to a house's security system consists
of 5 digits. Each digit can be 0 through 9. How many
different codes are available if
a.) each digit can be repeated?
b.) each digit can only be used once and not
repeated?
a.) Because each digit can be repeated, there are
10 choices for each of the 5 digits.
10 · 10 · 10 · 10 · 10 = 100,000 codes
b.) Because each digit cannot be repeated, there are
10 choices for the first digit, 9 choices left for the
second digit, 8 for the third, 7 for the fourth and 6
for
10 ·the
9 · fifth.
8 · 7 · 6 = 30,240 codes
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 Permutations
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects.
The number of different permutations of n distinct
objects is n!.
“n factorial”

n! = n · (n – 1)· (n – 2)· (n – 3)· …· 3· 2· 1

Example:
How many different surveys are required to cover all
possible question arrangements if there are 7
questions in a survey?

7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040 surveys

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Permutation of n Objects Taken r at a
Time
The number of permutations of n elements
taken r at a time is
n! .
n Pr 
(n  r)!
# in the
group # taken
from the
group
Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In
how many different orders can you do so?

Pr  8P5  8!  8! = 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 6720 ways

n
(8  5)! 3! 3 2 1

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 Distinguishable
Permutations
The number of distinguishable permutations of n
objects, where n1 are one type, n2 are another type,
and so on n is! , where n1  n2  n3   nk  n.
n1 ! n2 ! n3 !nk !

Example:
Jessie wants to plant 10 plants along the sidewalk in
her front yard. She has 3 rose bushes, 4 daffodils,
and 3 lilies. In how many distinguishable ways can
the plants be arranged?
10! 10 9 8 7 6 5 4!

3!4!3! 3!4!3!
4,200 different ways to arrange the plants
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Combination of n Objects Taken r at
a Time
A combination is a selection of r objects from a group
of n things when order does not matter. The
number of combinations of r objects selected
from a group of n objects is n !
Cr  .
# in the
n
(n  r)! r !
collection
# taken from
the collection
Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In
how many different ways can you do so if the
order doesn’t matter?
8! 8 7 6 5!
C5 = =
8
3!5! 3!5!
=56 combinations
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 31
 Application of Counting
Principles
Example:
In a state lottery, you must correctly select 6 numbers (in any order)
out of 44 to win the grand prize.
a.) How many ways can 6 numbers be chosen from
the 44 numbers?
b.) If you purchase one lottery ticket, what is the
probability of winning the top prize?

44!
a.) 44C 6  7,059,052 combinations
6!38!
b.) There is only one winning ticket, therefore,
1
P (win)  0.00000014
7059052
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 32