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Lecture 0402

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Lecture 0402

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mahirasadman
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Probability and Statistics for

Science and Engineering

Mohammed Anwer
Lecture 04, Discrete Probability
Distributions
Lecture 04, Discrete Probability
Distributions
Part 02, Bernoulli trial, Binomial
Distribution
Bernoulli trial
• For this and some other distributions we will discuss next, we will need to
understand Bernoulli trial. Bernoulli trial has the following properties.
• Each trial is identical and independent in the sense that the outcome of one
trial does not affect the outcome of another trial.
• The outcome of each trial can be classed as a ‘success’ (s) or a ‘failure’ (f).
• Examples of Bernoulli trial are
• flipping of a coin; flips are independent; outcome, head or tail
• making a phone call, attempts are independent; outcome, success or failure
• inspecting quality; inspections are independent; outcome, pass or fail
Binomial Distribution
• Binomial distribution has the following properties
• The experiment consists of a fixed number, n, of Bernoulli trials,
• trials that result in either success or failure;
• trials are identical and independent, and therefore the probability of success,
p, remains the same throughout the experiment;
• The random variable, x, denotes the number of success obtained in n trials.
Binomial Distribution
• In an attempt to find an expression for the probability function, let us assume
that we are looking for 3 successes in 5 trials.
• If there are 3 successes, the other 2 trials must have ended in failures.
• Let us consider a possible outcome of this event. Let us assume the event {sssff}.
• The probability of this event is p3(1 – p)2.
• Another possible event of the same outcome is {sfssf}. The probability of this
event is also p3(1 – p)2.
• In fact since there are 3 successes, and 2 failures, probability of each of the
possible event would be p3(1 – p)2.
Binomial Distribution
• So the problem narrows down to: How many ways can 3 successes appear in 5
trials?
• The answer is 5C3.
• Therefore, the probability of 3 successes in 5 trials is 5C3 p3 (1 – p)2.
• Generalizing this to x successes in n trials, we obtain
• p(X = x) = f(x) = nCx px (1 – p)n – x
• Other properties are; Mean,  = np; Variance, 2 = np(1 – p)
Binomial Distribution
Example: The phone lines to an airline reservation system are occupied 40% of the time. Assume
that the events that the lines are occupied on successive calls are independent. Assume that 10 calls
are placed to the airline.
The phone line to the reservation system will either be available, or occupied. This follows Bernoulli
trial. Therefore, this is a problem of binomial distribution. For this problem, n = 10, p = 0.4.
(a) What is the probability that for exactly three calls the lines are occupied?
We have to find p(X = 3). Therefore,
p(X = 3) = 10C3 (0.4)3 (1 – 0.4)(10 – 3) = 0.215
(b) What is the probability that for at least one call the lines are not occupied?
We have to find p(X  1). This means we have to compute all the probabilities for X = 1, 2, . . .
10. Instead of doing the problem this way, we find the complimentary probability for X = 0, and
subtract from 1.
Binomial Distribution
Example: (continued)
The problem is asking for probability of not occupied, which is 1 – 0.4 = 0.6. Therefore,
p(X  1) = 1.0 – p(X = 0) = 1.0 – 10C0 (0.6)0 (1.0 – 0.6)10 = 0.999
(c) What is the expected number of calls in which the lines are all occupied?
Mean of binomial distribution,  = np = 10  0.4 = 4
Example: Batches that consist of 50 coil springs from a production process are checked for
conformance to customer requirements. The mean number of nonconforming coil springs in a batch
is 5. Assume that the number of nonconforming springs in a batch, denoted as X, is a binomial
random variable.
(d) What are n and p?
n = 50.
Binomial Distribution
Example: (continued)
We have been told that in this problem, the mean is 5. We have also learnt earlier that mean of
binomial distribution is np. Therefore,
np = 5,
or p = 5/50,
or p = 0.1
(b) What is p(X ≤ 2)?
p(X ≤ 2) = p(X = 0) + p(X = 1) + p(X = 2)
= 50C0(0.1)0(1.0 – 0.1)50 + 50C1(0.1)1(1.0 – 0.1)49 + 50C2(0.1)2(1.0 – 0.1)48
= 0.00515 + 0.0286 + 0.0779 = 0.11165
(c) What is p(X ≥ 49)?
p(X ≥ 49) = p(X = 49) + p(X = 50) = 50C49(0.1)49(1.0 – 0.1)1 + 50C50(0.1)50(1.0 – 0.1)0 = 4.511048
This ends Lecture 04, part 2

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