Wcms 098886
Wcms 098886
Development and
Green Jobs:
an overview
Research Conference:
‘Green Jobs for Asia and the Pacific’
Niigata, Japan, 21-23 April 2008
Peter Poschen
International Labour Office (ILO) 1
Why green jobs?
Asia-Pacific Region:
• economic growth 2x world average
• ~900 m poor
• 60% world population on 40% land
• lowest arable land/cap and water/cap
• loss of biodiversity and renewable
resources
• growing pollution water, air, soil
2
Enter climate
change
Short-medium term:
• Increased variability weather:
• Agriculture: ~350 m
subsistance farmers
• Storms and floods:
• Asian mega-deltas and coasts
• Pacific islands
3
Climate change
Long-term:
• Rising temperature and sea-level
• Water shortages 1bn people Asia
by 2050
• Existence of small island states
‘Grow now, clean up later’ self-
defeating, unviable long-term
4
Exponential growth in
a finite world?
5
Great
transformation
‘Green growth’, ‘clean
development’
• Pollution control
• Fewer resources/output (eco-efficient)
• No pollution and degradation (eco-
effective)
• Sustainable economies
9
Examples of actually
or potentially Green
Jobs
• Renewable energy: 2.3 m jobs
• Environmental industries US:
5.3 m jobs
• Solar thermal China:
1,000 manufacturers, 600,000
jobs
• Ethanol Brazil: 500,000 jobs
10
Green jobs = Decent
Work
Generate Broad
quality jobs social protection
13
Recycling IT waste
14
Green jobs and
development
• Avert climate
change and
sustain poverty?
• Green jobs have
to be decent
work
• Green jobs for
those who need
them most:
youth, women,
SMEs, the poor 15
Green jobs: more
than meets the eye
• In perspective: relatively small % of
total employment (3%?)
• Forward linkage greening: clean
energy, recycling (e.g. cars, IT)
• Dynamics: creation, substitution,
elimination, redefinition of jobs
• Job creation:
Direct green jobs < indirect << induced
job creation
• Poverty:
Food and energy expenditure poor
households
Access to modern energy 16
Green jobs:
substitution
USA jobs in energy sector:
renewable : fossil = ~ 2:1
Direct: Total:
Agriculture: 126,000
196,000
Res. Constr.: 47,000 130,000
Non-resid. C: 41,000 142,000
18
Green jobs:
direct vs. indirect and
induced
Ex 2: Renewable energy Germany
• Direct and indirect jobs (50%)
• Energy/job substitution
• Budget effect (temporarily higher
cost of renewables)
Need to consider full economic
cycle:
• Gross: +170,000 jobs
• Net: + 40,000 jobs 19
2nd Great
Transformation
• On balance: net gains employment
• Major gains and losses
(typically within sectors)
Just transitions for
enterprises and workers
• Pathways for development in Asia?
• Contribution to poverty reduction?
20
Decent work in
sustainable
enterprises
Policy instruments and
programmes for development:
• Skills
• Small and medium enterprises,
local development
• Just transitions
• Pro-poor: solar Bangladesh, India,
urban upgrading South Africa
21
Policy coherence and
good governance
• Build green jobs into UNFCCC
post 2012 + national strategies
• Better and more stable policies
through dialogue: involve
stakeholders - employers and
workers in national and
international policy making and
implementation
22
Thank you
23