TOPIC : DISTRIBUTION AND PROPAGATION OF ERROR

PRESENTED BY : SABA FATIMA

PRESENTED TO : SIR ZIA-UL-HAQ KHAN
Learning Outcomes:
• What is distribution of error?
• Types of distribution
• What is propagation of error
• Rules for propagation of
error
Distribution of Error:

• The distribution of error refers to the spread or dispersion of errors around a

central value or mean in a dataset.
• It helps in understanding the variability or uncertainty in the measurements being
taken.
Characteristics:
• Errors can be symmetrically distributed around the mean in a normal distribution,
or they can be skewed to one side in non-normal distributions.
• The shape of the error distribution can provide insights into the nature of the
measurement process and the sources of variability.
• Understanding the distribution of errors is crucial for making predictions,
estimating uncertainty, and assessing the reliability of data.
Types of Error Distributions:

• Normal Distribution: Errors are symmetrically distributed around

the mean, following the bell-shaped curve.
• Skewed Distribution: Errors are asymmetrical, with a longer tail
on one side indicating a bias in the measurements.
• Uniform Distribution: Errors are evenly distributed across a range
of values, indicating consistent variability.
Normal Distribution of Error
• The normal distribution of error, also known as the Gaussian
distribution, is a probability distribution that is symmetric
around the mean, forming a bell-shaped curve when plotted.

• In this distribution, errors or deviations from the true value are

expected to follow a specific pattern.

Characteristics:
Errors in a normal distribution are centered around the mean,
with the majority of errors clustered close to the mean and fewer
errors occurring further away.

• The shape of the normal distribution is determined by the

mean (average) and standard deviation (measure of spread) of
the errors.

• The familiar bell shape of the normal distribution is

characterized by specific properties, such as 68% of errors
falling within one standard deviation from the mean, 95%
within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three
standard deviations.
• If we look at a standardized Gaussian distribution — the so-called Normal Error Curve
shown below — you can see that the probability of any one measurement being a
member of this particular distribution increases as the magnitude of z increases.

• the area underneath the curve represented by "z" multiples of the standard deviation
are shown in the table below:

Area Represented Under Normal Error Curve

±z
(Confidence Level)
1.00 68.3%
1.64 90.0%
1.96 95.0%
2.58 99.0%
3.00 99.7%
Example of normal distribution
Here's an example of the normal distribution:
• The average height for an American man is about 5 feet, 9 inches.
• The male height chart has a normal distribution because there are about
as many males with heights lower than the average as there are males
that are taller than the average.
• This creates a "bell" shape if you graph the distribution of heights,
especially as you increase the number of data points you collect.
 Skewed distribution:
• The skewed distribution is when data in a chart lean either to the left or the
right side of the scale, resulting in a nonsymmetrical curve.
• This occurs in different statistical data sets, including frequency distributions.
• Any distribution with its left side shaped differently than its right side is a
skewed distribution.
• The difference between a skewed distribution and normal distribution, also
called Gaussian distribution, is that the latter symmetrically distributes around
the mean and has a skew of zero.
• A skew-normal distribution is a normal distribution with an extra parameter
that skews its shape to either the left or the right. Because the only data that
changes is the skew of the normal distribution, it shares many characteristics
with the normal distribution, such as:
Example of distribution skewing left:
• The average human life span chart skews left. If the chart shows
values from 1 to 100, representing years of life, the data would
show that most people live to around 75 to 80 years old. This
means that the chart's tail is longer on its left side because the
values around 75 and 80 are closer to 100 than to 1. It also means
that the chart's peak, meaning the average human life span, is
closer to the right of the chart.

Example of distribution skewing right:

• The average household income distribution in the United States is
skewed right. If a chart would show the yearly income of every
household in the country, the data shows that most households
have an average yearly income of between $40,000 per year and
$80,000 per year. Although the households that earn less remain
limited to the difference between the average income and zero,
the households that earn more have virtually no limit regarding
how high on the chart's scale their earnings can rise.
• The skewness is not directly related to the relationship between the mean and
median: a distribution with negative skew can have its mean greater than or
less than the median, and likewise for positive skew
Propagation of Error
• When doing experiments, we often measure two or more distinct physical
quantities and then combine the measurements mathematically to obtain
some final result.
• For example, to determine the average speed of an object we could measure
the amount of time it takes to travel a certain distance and then use
average speed =distance traveled / elapsed time
• The uncertainty in the calculated average speed depends upon the
uncertainty in the distance as well as the uncertainty in the time.
• Propagation of error refers to the methods used to determine how the
uncertainty in a calculated result is related to the uncertainties in the
individual measurements.
• The methods used for determining how uncertainties are combined can be
quite sophisticated
THE MIN-MAX METHOD:
The basic method we will use to propagate errors is called the min- max
method. To use this method
we define
• a minimum and maximum value for each of the measurements used to
calculate the final result.
• The minimum and maximum values are simply (best value - uncertainty) and
(best value + uncertainty).
• Then we use these values to calculate a minimum and maximum value for the
calculated result.
• From the minimum and maximum values for the calculated result, we deduce
the uncertainty in the result.
Examples are:
1) Addition of measurements
• When two resistors are connected in series, the total resistance is the sum of the individual
resistances.
• Suppose that two resistors in series have resistances of 78 ± 1 ohms and 135 ± 2 ohms.
• The best estimate of the total resistance is 78 + 135 = 213 ohms. Based on the uncertainty, it is
quite likely that the resistance of the first resistor is between 77 and 79 ohms and the resistance
of the second resistor is between 133 and 137 ohms.
• These are our minimum and maximum values. Using the maximum values for each resistor we
get a maximum total resistance of 79 + 137 = 216 ohms.
• Similarly, the minimum total resistance is 77 + 133 = 210 ohms. The difference between the
maximum resistance and the minimum resistance is 6 ohms so the total resistance with
uncertainty is 213 ± 3 ohms.
• In this case the total uncertainty is just the sum of the two uncertainties.
2). Subtraction of measurements
• The mass of an empty thermos bottle is found to be 78.3 g ± 0.2 g.
• When filled with liquid nitrogen its mass is 167.7± 0.3 g. The best estimate for the
mass of liquid nitrogen in the flask is 167.7 - 78.3 = 89.4 g.
• The minimum and maximum values for the mass of the thermos bottle are 78.1 g
and 78.5 g.
• The minimum and maximum values for the mass of the thermos bottle plus
nitrogen are 167.4 g and 168.0 g.
• To find the maximum mass for the liquid nitrogen we subtract the minimum mass
of the thermos bottle, 78.1 g, from the maximum mass of the thermos +liquid
nitrogen, 168.0 g.
• The result is that the maximum value for the mass of liquid nitrogen is 168.0 g -
78.1 g =89.9 g.
• To find the minimum mass of the liquid nitrogen we subtract the maximum mass of
the thermos, 78.5 g, from the minimum mass of the thermos + nitrogen, 167.4g.
• The result is 167.4 g - 78.5 g = 88.9 g.
• Thus the mass of the liquid nitrogen is 89.4 ± 0.5 g. Note that the masses are
subtracted, but the uncertainties add.
3) Multiplication by a constant
• The time for a pendulum to complete 5 swings is found to be t = 12.6 ± 0.2s.
• The time for 1 swing, T, is given by T = (1/5)t.
• The best estimate for T is (1/5) x 12.6 = 2.52 s.
• The maximum time for one swing is (1/5) x 12.8 =2.56 s and the minimum time is
(1/5) x 12.4 s = 2.48 s.
• Thus the time for one swing is T = 2.52 ± 0.04 s.
• Note that the uncertainty is 1/5 of the uncertainty in the original measurement.
4) Multiplication of measurements :
• A rectangular plot of land is found to be 163 ± 1 ft by 386 ±2 ft.
• The best estimate for the area of the plot is 163 ft x 386 ft = 62918 ft 2 .
• The maximum area is 164 ft x 388 ft = 63632 ft 2 .
• The minimum area is162 ft x 384 ft = 62208 ft 2 .
• The maximum area is larger than the best estimate of the area by 714 ft 2 .
• The minimum area is smaller than the best estimate by 710 ft 2 .
• Taking the average we have that the area is 62918 ± 712 ft 2 .
• We recall that uncertainties are normally quoted to only one or two significant figures, and
the precision of the result should match that of the uncertainty.
• Thus the uncertainty is 700 ft 2 , and the result is 62900 ± 700 ft 2 .
• It is worth noting that if we were using rules for significant figures to decide how to round off
the answer, we would give the answer to 3 significant figures, namely 62900 ft 2 .
• With our analysis we not only find out how to round off the final result, but we also get
information about the actual size of the uncertainty
5) Division of measurements :
• A sprinter runs 400 ± 2 m in 65.31 ± 0.05 s.
• Her average speed is 400m/65.31s = 6.12464 m/s.
• To find the maximum value for her speed we take the maximum distance and
the minimum time (similar to what we did with subtraction above) and get a
speed of 402m/65.26s = 6.15998 m/s.
• The minimum value for her speed is 398m/65.36s = 6.08935 m/s.
• The maximum and minimum are both different from the best value by about
0.035 m/s.
• Rounding to 1 sig fig we get that the uncertainty is 0.03s.
• Rounding the best estimate properly we have an average speed of 6.12± 0.03
6) Raising to a power and multiplying by a constant:
• The radius of a circle is found to be 7.5 ± 0.1 cm.
• The best estimate for the area of the circle (A = πR2 ) is A = 3.1416 x 7.52 =
176.715 cm2 .
• The maximum area is 3.1416 x 7.62 = 181.459 cm2 and the minimum area is
3.1416 x 7.42 = 172.034 cm2 .
• The difference between the maximum value and the best estimate is 4.744 cm2
and the difference between the minimum and the best estimate is 4.681 cm2 .
• Thus the uncertainty is about 4.7 cm2 , or to 1 significant figure, 5 cm2 .
• The final result for the area is A = 177 ± 5 cm2 .
RULES FOR PROPAGATING UNCERTAINTIES:
• The above examples illustrate how the min-max method may be applied in a number of specific cases.
• We can also apply the method more generally and develop some simple rules for propagating errors.
Rule #1:
When two measurements are added or subtracted, the absolute uncertainty in the result is the sum of
the absolute uncertainties of the individual measurements.
Rule #2:
When a measurement is multiplied by a constant, the absolute uncertainty in the result is equal to the
absolute uncertainty in the measurement times the constant, and the relative uncertainty in the result is
the same as the relative uncertainty in the measurement.
Rule #3: When two measurements are multiplied or divided, the relative uncertainty in the result is the
sum of the relative uncertainties in the individual measurements. This rule could be stated equivalently
in terms of percentage uncertainties, since relative and percentage uncertainties are simply related by a
factor of 100.
Rule #4 When a measurement is raised to a power, including fractional powers such as in the case of a
square root, the relative uncertainty in the result is the relative uncertainty in the measurement times
the power.
Comments:
Rule #1 agrees with examples 1 and 2 given for the min-max method.
Rule #2 also obviously agrees with the result from example 3, but it contains the extra
information that the relative error remains the same when a quantity is multiplied by a constant.
Checking this we see that the relative error in the original time measurement is 0.2 s/12.6 s =
0.0159, and the relative error in the time for one swing is 0.04 s/2.52 s = 0.0159. Now we will
apply Rule #3 to example 5 - division of two measurements - to check that it gives the same
result. The relative uncertainty in the distance run is 2 m/400 m = 0.005. The relative uncertainty
in the time taken is 0.05 s/65.31 s = .00077. Adding the relative uncertainties we get 0.005 +
0.00077 = 0.00577. According to Rule #3, this is the relative uncertainty in the speed. However,
we want to know the absolute uncertainty in the speed. Since ! relative uncertainty = absolute
uncertainty best estimate , we can rearrange to get ! absolute uncertainty = relative uncertainty "
best estimate. Thus we find that the absolute uncertainty in the speed = 0.00577 x 6.12464 m/s
= 0.035 m/s. This is the same answer that we got in example 5.