Probability and

Counting Rules

1
Probability and Counting Rules

Outline
1 Sample Spaces and Probability
2 The Addition Rules for Probability
3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
4 Counting Rules
5 Probability and Counting Rules
Probability and Counting Rules

Objectives
1 Determine sample spaces and find the probability
of an event, using classical probability or empirical
probability.
2 Find the probability of compound events, using
the addition rules.
3 Find the probability of compound events, using
the multiplication rules.
4 Find the conditional probability of an event.
 Probability
• Probability can be defined as the chance
of an event occurring. It can be used to
quantify what the “odds” are that a specific
event will occur.

• Some examples of how probability is used

everyday would be weather forecasting,
“75% chance of snow” or for setting
insurance rates.
 Sample Spaces and Probability
• A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well- results
definedoutcomes.
called
• An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
• A sample space is the set of all
possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.
• An event consists of outcomes.
 Sample Spaces

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT
 Example 1 : Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.
Exercise #1
If two dice are rolled one time, find
the probability of getting these results.

a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9
e. A sum less than or equal to 4
a. A sum of
6 Total of 36
outcomes

b. Doubles

There are six ways to get doubles. They are

(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).
 Total of 36
c. A sum of 7 or 11 outcomes
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6)
and (6,5).

d. A sum of greater than 9

To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11,
or 12. There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12.
They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).
e. The patient has had 1 or 2 tests
done.
Number Number
of Tests of
Performed Patient
0 s
12
1 8
2 2
3 3
4 or more 5
 Example 2: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of
the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

TREE DIAGRAM: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the
gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G
BGG
B
B GBB
G
G GBG
B
G
G GGB

GGG
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of probability:

• Classical probability

• Empirical probability

• Subjective probability
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces to
determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen and assumes that all
outcomes in the sample space are equally likely
to occur.
 Sample Spaces and Probability

Rounding Rule for Probabilities

Probabilities should be expressed as reduced
fractions or rounded to two or three decimal
places. When the probability of an event is an
extremely small decimal, it is permissible to
round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after
the decimal point.
 Example : Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the
probability that two of the three children are
girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB
GGG

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two

girls.
 PROBABILITY
RULES
Probability Rule 1
The probability of any event E is a number (either a
fraction or decimal) between and including 0 and 1.

This is denoted by 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

Probability Rule 3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E
is 1.
 Rolling a Die
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7?

Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than

7, the probability is

The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.

Sample Spaces and Probability
 Example: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Even
Rolling a diCompleme
te and
of theGettnint g a 1, 2,
getting a or
4
Selecting a letter of 63E,v5e,nt
the
vowe nt
Getting February,
a
alnpdhagbeettting a Getting
l )March,
consonant
Selecting a month A
and
N auo
cp orscgnvisto
(Decembe
O usl,eu
sbM
omt,anS
eyae,
ptember,
Getting
ry is a Saturday
gmeottninthgtahat mebr,er, or
begins or Sunday
weekda
with a J
y
 Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an
industrialized country of the world is , find the
probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of probability:

• Classical probability

• Empirical probability

• Subjective probability
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on
actual experience to determine the
likelihood of outcomes.
 Example : Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
 Example : Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
 Example : Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
 Example: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
 Law of Large Numbers

•When a coin is tossed one time, it is

common knowledge that the
probability of getting a head is . But
what happens when the coin
is tossed 50 times? Will it come
up heads 25 times?
If the empirical probability of getting a
head is computed by using
a small number of trials, it
is usually
exactly. not as the number of trials
However,
increases, the empirical probability of
getting a head will approach the
theoretical probability of , if in fact the
coin is fair (i.e., balanced). This
phenomenon is an example of the law of
large numbers.
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of probability:

• Classical probability

• Empirical probability

• Subjective probability
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability
value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events
 APPLICATION: Tossing a Coin
Assume you are at a carnival and decide to play one of the
games. You spot a table where a person is flipping a coin,
and since you have an understanding of basic probability,
you believe that the odds of winning are in your favor.
When you get to the table, you find out that all you have to
do is to guess which side of the coin will be facing up after
it is tossed. You are assured that the coin is fair, meaning
that each of the two sides has an equally likely chance of
occurring. You think back about what you learned in your
statistics class about probability before you decide what to
bet on. Answer the following questions about the
coin-tossing game.
1. What is the sample space?
2. What are the possible outcomes?
3. What does the classical approach to
probability say about computing
probabilities for this type of
problem?
You decide to bet on heads, believing that it
has a 50% chance of coming up. A friend of
yours, who had been playing the game for a
while before you got there, tells you that
heads has come up the last 9 times in a row.
You remember the law of large numbers.
 4.What is the law of large numbers, and
does it change your thoughts about what will
occur on the next toss?
5.What does the empirical approach
to probability say about this problem, and
could you use it to solve this problem?
6.Can subjective probabilities be used to
help solve this problem? Explain.
7.Assume you could win $1 million if
you could guess what the results of the next
toss will be. What would you bet on? Why?
 Tossing a Coln
1. The sample space is the listing of all possible
outcomes of the coin toss.

2. The possible outcomes are heads or tails.

3. Classical probability says that a fair coin has a 50-50
chance of coming up heads or tails.
4. The law of large numbers says that as you increase
the number of trials, the overall results will approach
the Teoretical probability. However, since the coin
has no “memory,” it still has a 50-50 chance of coming up
heads or tails on the next toss. Knowing what has
dready happenedshould not change yottr opinion on
what will happen on the next toss.
5. The empirical approach to probability is based on
running an experiment and looking at the results. You
cannot do that at this time.
s. Subjective probabilities could be used if you believe the
coin is biased.
7. Answers will vary; however, they should address that a fair
coin has a 50-50 chance of coming up heads or tails on
 Addition Rules for Probability
• Two events are mutually exclusive events
if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e.,
they have no outcomes in common)
 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not, when a single die
is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even
number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive
 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not,
when a single die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd
number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not, when a single die
is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not,
when a single die is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and
getting a number less than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

M. E.
 Example : R&D Employees
The corporate research and development centers
for three local companies have the following
number of employees:
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find
the probability that the employee is employed by
U.S. Steel or Alcoa.
Example 4-18: R&D Employees
 Example : Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person
is selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse
or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
 Multiplication Rules
■Two events A and B are independent
events if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

This problem could be solved using sample space. H1, H2, H3,
H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Survey on Stress
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say
they suffer great stress at least once a week. If
three people are selected at random, find the
probability that all three will say that they
suffer great stress at least once a week.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : University Crime
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there
were 5 burglaries reported in 2003, 16 in 2004,
and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to select at
random two burglaries to further investigate, find
the probability that both will have occurred in
2004.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 4.3 Conditional Probability
■Conditional probability is the
probability that the second event B
occurs given that the first event A has
occurred.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and
gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam
cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in the
no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school
and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability
that he will get a parking ticket.
N = parking in a no-parking zone
T = getting a ticket

Bluman,
Chapter 4
Example : Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
Example : Women in the Military
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes
(Y), given that the respondent was a female (F).

Bluman,
Chapter 4
Example : Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a
male (M), given that the respondent answered no (N).

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Bow Ties
The Neckware Association of America reported that 3% of
ties sold in the United States are bow ties (B). If 4
customers who purchased a tie are randomly selected, find
the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 EXAMPLE
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck
of cards, find the probability of getting
the following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 4
jacks, hence:
P (king or queen or jack)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
There are 13 clubs, 13 hearts, and
13 spades, hence:

P(club or heart or spade)

If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 13
diamonds but the king and queen
of diamonds were counted twice,
hence:
P(king or queen or diamond)
P(king) + P(queen) +
P(diamond) – P(king or queen
of diamonds)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
d. An ace or a diamond or a
heart.
There are 4 aces, 13 diamonds and
13 hearts. There is one ace of
diamonds and one ace of hearts,
hence:
P(ace or diamond or heart)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
There are 4 nines, 4 tens, 13 spades,
and 13 clubs. There is one nine
of spades, one ten of spades, one nine
of clubs, and one ten of clubs, hence:
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
 EXAMPLE
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-
year students have computers. If three
students are selected at random, find
the following probabilities.

a. None have computers

b. At least one has a computer
c. All have computers
 At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following
a. None have
probabilities.
computers
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following
b. At least one has a
probabilities.
computer
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following
c. All have
probabilities.
computers
EXAMPL
E

0. D (0.8)(0.1) =
0. 1 0.08
8 0.9 N
D
0.1 D (0.2)(0.18) =
0. 8 0.036
2 N
0.8 D
2
Finally, use the addition rule, since the item
is chosen at random from model I or
model II.
0.1 D (0.8)(0.1) =
0. 0.08
8 0.9 N
D
0.1 D (0.2)(0.18) =
0. 8 0.036
2 N
0.8 D
2
EXAMPLE
In Rolling Acres Housing Plan, 42% of the houses
have a deck and a garage; 60% have a deck. Find
the probability that a home has a garage, given
that it has a deck.
EXAMPL
E Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
Consider this table concerning
utility patents granted for a
specific year.
Select one patent at random.
a. What is the probability that
it is a foreign patent, given that
it was issued to a corporation?
b. What is the probability
that it was issued to an
individual, given that it was
a U.S. patent?
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
a. What is the probability
that it is a foreign patent, given
that it was issued to a
corporation?
P(foreign patent |
corporation)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
P(foreign patent |
corporation)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
P(foreign patent |
corporation)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
b. What is the probability that it
was issued to an individual,
given that it was a U.S.
patent?
P (individual |
U.S.)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267

P(individual |
U.S.)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267

P(individual |
U.S.)
Probability
and Counting
Rules
 Counting Rules
■The fundamental counting rule is also called
the multiplication of choices.
■In a sequence of n events in which the first
one has k1 possibilities and the second event
has k2and the third has k3, and so forth, the
total number of possibilities of the sequence
will be
k1 · k2 · k3 · · · kn

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example: Paint Colors
A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different
paints. The categories include
Color: red, blue, white, black, green, brown,
yellow Type: latex, oil
Texture: flat, semigloss, high gloss
Use: outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can select
one color, one type, one texture, and one use?

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Counting Rules
■ Factorial is the product of all the
positive numbers from 1 to a number.

■ Permutation is an arrangement of objects in

a specific order. Order matters.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Counting Rules
■Combinationis a grouping of objects.
Order does not matter.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example: Business Location
Suppose a business owner has a choice of 5 locations in
which to establish her business. She decides to rank each
location according to certain criteria, such as price of the
store and parking facilities. How many different ways can
she rank the 5 locations?

Using factorials, 5! =
1 2 0
U s in. g permutations,
5 5

P Bluman, =
Chapter 4
 Example : Business Location
Suppose the business owner in the previous example
wishes to rank only the top 3 of the 5 locations. How
many different ways can she rank them?

Using permutations, 5P3 =

60.
Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Television Ads
The advertising director for a television show has 7 ads to use on
the program.

If she selects 1 of them for the opening of the show, 1 for the middle
of the show, and 1 for the ending of the show, how many possible
ways can this be accomplished?

Since order is important, the solution is

Hence, there would be 210 ways to show 3 ads.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : School Musical Plays
A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to
present next year. One will be presented in the fall, and one
will be presented in the spring. If she has 9 to pick from,
how many different possibilities are there?

Order matters, so we will use permutations.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Book Reviews
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides
that he can use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How many
different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

The placement in the newspaper is not mentioned, so order

does not matter. We will use combinations.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Committee Selection
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of
3 women and 2 men is to be chosen. How many
different possibilities are there?

There are not separate roles listed for each committee

member, so order does not matter. We will use
combinations.

There are 35·10 = 350 different possibilities.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Probability and Counting Rules
The counting rules can be combined with the
probability rules in this chapter to solve many types
of probability problems.

By using the fundamental counting rule,

the permutation rules, and the combination rule,
you can compute the probability of outcomes
of many experiments, such as getting a full house
when 5 cards are dealt or selecting a committee of
3 women and 2 men from a club consisting of 10
women and 10 men.
Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Chapter 4
Probability and Counting
Rules

Section 4-5
Example 4-52
Page #246

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example 4-52: Magazines
A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 Newstime
magazines on the counter. If two customers purchased a
magazine, find the probability that one of each magazine
was purchased.

TV Graphic: One magazine of the 6 magazines

Newstime: One magazine of the 8 magazines
Total: Two magazines of the 14 magazines

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 Example : Combination Lock
A combination lock consists of the 26 letters of the alphabet. If a
3-letter combination is needed, find the probability that the
combination will consist of the letters ABC in that order. The
same letter can be used more than once. (Note: A combination
lock is really a
permutation lock.)

There are 26·26·26 = 17,576 possible combinations.

The letters ABC in order create one combination.

Bluman,
Chapter 4
 EXAMPLE
How many different 3 - digit identification tags can
be made if the digits can be used more than once?
If the
first digit must be a 5 and repetitions are not
permitted?
If digits can be used more than
once: Since there are three
spaces to fill and 10 choices for
each space, the solution is:
How many different 3 - digit identification tags can
be made if the digits can be used more than once?
If the
first digit must be a 5 and repetitions are not
permitted?
If the first digit must be a 5
and repetitions are not
permitted: There is only one
way to assign the first digit, 9
ways to assign the second, and
8 ways to assign the third:
EXAMPLE
How many different ID cards can be made if there
are 6 digits on a card and no digit can be used
more than once?
Since order is important, the solution is:
EXAMPLE
How many ways can a committee of 4
people be selected from a group of 10
people?
Since order is not important, the solution is:
EXAMPLE
How many ways can a foursome of 2 men and 2
women be selected from 10 men and 12 women in a
golf club?
EXAMPLE
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women
and 3 men. Three are selected to attend a
management seminar. Find these
probabilities.
a. All 3 selected will be women.
b. All 3 selected will be men.
c. 2 men and 1 woman will be selected.
d. 1 man and 2 women will be selected.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women
and 3 men. Three are selected to attend a
management seminar. Find these
probabilities.
a. All 3 selected will be
women.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women
and 3 men. Three are selected to attend a
management seminar. Find these
probabilities.
b. All 3 selected will be
men.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women
and 3 men. Three are selected to attend a
management seminar. Find these
probabilities.
c. 2 men and 1 woman will be
selected.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women
and 3 men. Three are selected to attend a
management seminar. Find these
probabilities.
d. 1 man and 2 women will be
selected.
 EXAMPLE
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6
doctors and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the
committee will consist of:
a. All dentists.
b. 2 dentists and 2 doctors.
c. All doctors.
d. 3 doctors and 1 dentist.
e. 1 doctor and 3 dentists.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6
doctors and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the
committee will consist of:
a. All
dentists.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6
doctors and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the
committee will consist of:
b. 2 dentists and 2
doctors.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6
doctors and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the
committee will consist of:
c. All
doctors.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6
doctors and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the
committee will consist of:
d. 3 doctors and 1
dentist.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6
doctors and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the
committee will consist of:
e. 1 doctor and 3
dentists.
EXAMPLE
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you
choose 2 socks at random in the dark.
a. What is the probability that
you get a pair of red socks?
b. What is the probability that
you get a pair of black
socks?
c. What is the probability
that you get 2 unmatched
socks?
d. Where did the other red
sock go?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose
2 socks at random in the dark.
a. What is the probability that
you get a pair of red socks?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose
2 socks at random in the dark.
b. What is the probability that
you get a pair of black
socks?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose
2 socks at random in the dark.
c. What is the probability
that you get 2 unmatched
socks?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose
2 socks at random in the dark.
d. Where did the other red sock go?

It probably got lost in the wash!

EXAMPLE
Find the probability that if 5 different- sized washers
are arranged in a row, they will be arranged in order
of size.
There are 5! =120 ways to arrange 5
washers in a row and 2 ways to have
them in correct order, small to large
or large to small; hence, the
probability is: