THIRD QUARTER

MODULE NO. I

TOPIC: RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. LEARNING TARGETS:
In this lesson, the learner will be able to;
 Determine the number of outcomes in a sequence of events using a tree diagram:
 Used the addition and multiplication rules and finding the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events.

PROBABILITY

Primarily concerned with the predicting chances, especially the occurrence of an event.

 It is the science of uncertainty

 It provides mathematical rules for understanding and analyzing out ignorance.
 The measure of how likely will occur
 Branch of math that studies patterns of chances

Probability is the way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur on chance. Probability originated from the latin word
“approval”.

Note: When the question arises related to the chance of something happening, your are dealing with probability.

Examples:

 The chances of a coin landing of heads is 50%. This is because a coin has two sides so there is a 50% that the coin will land
on heads and 50 % that a coin will land on tails.
 The physicians says that a patient has 50-50 chance surviving a certain operation.

Note: Probability is used a lot in daily life. Also used in math, statistics, finance, gambling, science, machine and artificial
intelligence and in many other activities.

*experiment : Any probability which gives results is called outcomes. For instance, when you toss a fair coin, there is always two
outcomes – a head or tail.

 TREE DIAGRAM- Is a graphic organizer that makes uses of branching connecting lines to represents a certain
relationship between event

1. How many outcomes will be made if you toss two coins?

1st Coin 2nd Coin Possible Outcomes

H HH
H

T HT

T TT
T

H TH Therefore: 4 outcomes

2. How many outcomes will be made if you toss 3 coins?

1st coins 2nd coin 3rd coin Outcome
H HHH

H
T HHT

H T HTT

H HTH

T TTT

T H TTH
 H THH

T THT Therefore:8 outcome

3. You are deal with a hand of card containing the aces, two kings and one queen and you pick three cards at random. How
many possible outcome can be made?

3 ACES 2 KINGS 1 QUEEN OUTCOMES

K1 Q A1 K 1Q
A1

K2 Q A1 K 2Q

K1 Q A2 K 1Q

A2

K2 Q A 2 K 2Q

K1 Q A 3 K 1Q

A3

K2 Q A 3 K 2Q
Therefore: 6 Outcome

 TREE DIAGRAM could be a helpful way to organize the counting possible outcomes in an experiment, it might
prove to be inconvenient especially when many variables are considered in the process. The good things is that of
GENERAL PRINCIPLE COUNTING
[ Multiplication Rule] may be generalized from tree diagrams.

Multiplication Rule is a helpful counting strategy, it must be used appropriately, most especially when dealing with events that
cannot happen simultaneously.

NOTE: knowledge od different techniques and principles of counting can help in the solution of real- life problems requiring patterns,
groupings, and combinations.

Examples:

1. Tossing two coins: 2 x 2 = 4 outcomes

2. Tossing three coins : 2 x 2 x 2= 8 outcomes
3. Hand of cards: 3 Aces x 2 kings x 1 queen= 6 outcomes

GENERAL RULES OF PROBABILITY

Rule no. 1. Probability is a number between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means that the event is impossible to happen while a
probability of 1 means that the event is certain to happen . Also, the event is likely to happen when the probability is close to 0 and
is more likely to happen when is close to 1.
Rule no. 2. The sum off all probabilities in a sample space is 1.
Rule no. 3. The probability of an event does not occur is 1 minus the probability that it does occur. This is called the complement rule
of probability.

Unlikely Likely

0 0.5 1
Impossible equally likely Certain
 PROBBAILITY of an event is a numerical value that describes the likelihood that an event will happen or not.
n(e )
P(E)=
n(s)
Where:
P(E) = probability of an event
n(e) = number of elements
n(s) = number of elements of sample space
Sample Space: Collection of all possible outcome, while the Event: refers to a subset of the sample space.
NOTE: SAMPLE SPACE AND EVENTS ARE SETS AND THEY SHOULD BE WRITTEN USING BRACES ”{ }”.
Note: Each Experiment has a given number of specific OUTCOME which together make up the sample space(s). The probability of an
EVENT (A) occurring must be such that A is a subset of S.
Experiment Throwing a coin Die
Number of possible outcomes, n(S) 2 6
Sample Space (S) {H,T} {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Event A (A SUBSET OF S) Getting H Getting an even number

EXAMPLES
1. S = {H, T} Tossing a coin
n(E) 1 1 1 1
*P(E)= *P(H) = OR 50% *P(T) = OR 50% + = 1 (Rule no.2)
n(S) 2 2 2 2
2. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} Even {2,4,6} Odd { 1,2,3}
3 1 3 1 1 1
* P(Even)= = = .5 or 50% *P(Odd) = = = .5 or 50% + = 1 (Rule no.2)
6 2 6 2 2 2

3. S= { H, T}
1 1 1 1
*P(Not T)= 1 - = ( Rule no. 3) * P { Not H) 1 - = ( Rule no. 3)
2 2 2 2
4. { HH, HT, TH, TT}
1 3
P { Not HH } = 1- = ( Rule no. 3)
4 4
5. A fair die is rolled, find the probability of getting:
Sample Space : { 1,2,3,4,5,6}
1 5 0
a. Getting a 6 = b. a number less than 6 = c. a number greater than 6= =0
6 6 6
6. One letter is selected from “excellent”. Find the probability that it is:
Sample Space { e,x,c,e,l,l,e,n,t}
3 1 6 2
a. An “e” = = b. a consonant = =
9 3 9 3
7. One Card is selected from a deck of cards, find the probability of selecting:
4 1 26 1 2 1
a. a queen = = b. a red card = = c. a red queen = =
52 12 52 2 52 26

MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY

A. INDEPENDENT EVENTS: Two events A and B are said to be independent when the first does not affect the others.
EXAMPLE: I you toss a coin and then throw a dice, the outcome does not affect each other.
FORMULA: P (A ꓵ B) = P (A) X P (B)
Note: This rule may be extended for a sequence with more than two events.

EXAMPLES.
1. A coin tossed and die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a HEAD followed by 4?
1
(A) S = {H,T) P(A)=
2
1
(B) S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} P (B) =
6
1 1 1
P (A ꓵ B) = P (A) X P (B) = X =
2 6 12
2. A pair of dice is rolled THRICE. What is the probability of getting DOUBLES?
(A) S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
(B) S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1, 4), (1,5),(1,6),
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),
(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6), (6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5)(6,6)}
6
(36 outcomes) =
36
P (A ꓵ B) = P (A) X P (B) x P (C) Since a pair of dice is rolled thrice, you need to add another variable which is C.
6 6 6 216 1
P (A ꓵ B) = P (A) X P (B) x P (C)= X X = ÷ 216 =
36 36 36 46656 216
B. Dependent Events: Two events A and B are said to be dependent when the first outcome affect the others.
FORMULA: P (A ꓵ B) = P (A) X P (B ǀ A)
 EXAMPLES:
1. Joseph draws TWO cards at random from the standard deck of 52 cards WITHOUT REPLACEMENT. What is the
probability of getting 2 ace cards?
FORMULA: P (A ꓵ B) = P (A) X P (B ǀ A)
Explanation: Since replacement is not allowed, drawing the first card will have an effect on the outcome of the drawing the second
card. Thus the events are dependent. In addition, there are 52 cards and 4 of which are ACE. Since 1 ace card is already selected,
there will only be 51 cards on the second draw with 3 ace card.
2. A jar contain 7 red marbles, 6 green marbles, 5 blue marbles and yellow marbles.
5 1
a. P{Blue} = =
20 4
7 13
b. P {not red} = 1 - =
20 20
6 2 8 2
c. P {green ꓴ yellow} = P {G} + P{Y} =
+ = ÷4=
20 20 20 5
7 5 35 7
d. Red then blue with REPLACEMENT = x = =
20 20 400 80
e. Red And blue with WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
7 5 5 7 35 35 70 7
f. (R x B) + (B x R) = ( x )+( x ¿= + = ÷ 10=
20 19 20 19 380 380 380 38

ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY

A. MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE Events cannot occur at the same time.
FORMULA: P(A ꓴ B ) = P(A) + P(B)
EXAMPLES:
1. If you toss a coin, you can get the head or tail. there are no other possibilities so the probabilities of the outcomes head
or tail must add up to 1.
2. If you roll a die, the possible results are 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 must add up to one.
3. What is the probability of getting ACE or KING?
4 4
*P{A}= * P{K} =
52 52
P(A ꓴ K ) = P(A) + P(K)
4 4
= +
52 52
8
= ÷4
52
2
=
13
B. MUTUALLY INCLUSIVE EVENTS: They have common outcomes.
FORMULA: P(A ꓴ B ) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A ꓵ B)

EXAMPLES:
1. If you pick a card from a pack of 52, what is the probability of it being a red card with a value greater than 6.
 Some cards are red
 Some cards have a value more than 6
 Some cards are both.
 Some cards are neither

2. S={1,2,3,4,5,6} [ FORMULA: P(A ꓴ B ) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A ꓵ B)]

A. {1,2,3,4} B. {5,6} C. {3,4,5}
a. P(A ꓵ B )=?
4 2 2 1 3 1
*{A}= = *P(B)= = *P(C)= =
6 3 6 3 6 2
P (A ꓵ B) = P(A) x P(B)
2 1 2
= x =
3 3 9
P(A ꓴ B ) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A ꓵ B)
2 1 2
P(A ꓴ B ) = + -
3 3 9
3 2
P(A ꓴ B ) = -
3 9
 9−2
P(A ꓴ B ) =
9
7
P(A ꓴ B )=
9

b. P(A ꓵ C) =?
P (A ꓵ C) = P(A) x P(C)
2 1 2 1
= x = or
3 2 6 3
P(A ꓴ C ) = P(A) + P(C) - P (A ꓵ C)
2 1 1
P(A ꓴ C ) = + -
3 2 3
4+ 3−2
P(A ꓴ C ) =
6
5
P(A ꓴ C )=
6