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Week 23 Random Variables and Probabilitu Distribution

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10 views26 pages

Week 23 Random Variables and Probabilitu Distribution

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erinshanellel
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© © All Rights Reserved
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WEEK 2&3

RANDOM VARIABLE
&
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
?
? ?
MS. AMELYN ALEGADO
LEARNING
OUTLINES:
?
1.Define what is probability
2.Explore random variables
3.Construct probability distributions
4.Find the probability of a simple event
WHAT IS
PROBABILIT
Y? ?
PROBABILITY - describes the level of
certainty;
(likelihood,chance or
possibility)
- probability (outcome) can be
expressed in
decimal, fraction or
PROBABILTY DISTRIBUTION - is a table,
percentage
graph, formula or notation which supplies
the probability of a given outcome’s
occurrence.
Sample Space (S) – set of all possible outcomes of
an experiment
INFINITE Sample Space – if the number in the sample
space is not finite
FINITE Sample Space – if the number in the sample
space is finite or definite
NULL Sample Space – it has no element in the sample
Event (E) – a subset of the sample space
space
- set of all expected outcomes from the
sample space
SAMPLE SPACE AND EVENTS
SETS can be described using:
1.SEMANTIC Form - statement describing the
elements of a set
2. ROSTER Form – listing method
3. SET BUILDER Notation – rule method
FINITE SAMPLE SPACE
• Set A is the list of the first six whole numbers.
• A = {0,1,2,3,4,5}
• A = { k | k is the first six whole numbers }

INFINITE SAMPLE SPACE - S = {S1, S2, S3, S4,…, Sn}


SAMPLE EVENT - Set B showing the Phil. National Fish
NULL SAMPLE SPACE - N = { Ø }
RANDOM
VARIABLES
• a variable determined by chance, denoted by x
• a numerical description of the outcome of a
statistical experiment
EXAMPLE:
Suppose two coins are tossed and we are interested to
determine the number of the tails will come out.
Determine the values of random variable T.
Experiment: Tossing two coins
Event: Determine the number of tails that will come out
S=
DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS
RANDOM VARIABLE
1.Discrete random variable – countable possible
outcomes
2.Continuous random variable – take values on
a continuous scale
DISCRETE RANDOM
VARIABLE
EXAMPLE:
If two coins are tossed, the possible outcomes are HH, HT,
TH, TT. If the X is the random variable for the number of
head, NO ONE TWO
POSSIBLE RANDOM
OUTCOMES VARIABLE OF X HEAD HEAD HEADS
HH 2

HT 1

NUMBER OF HEADS (X) 0 1 2


TH 1

PROBABILITY P(X)
TT 0

ΣP(x) =
Discrete Probability
Distributions
For a discrete random variable,
• the discrete probability distribution (probability mass function)
consists of values a random variable can assume. Denoted by
P(X).
This function provides the probability for each value of the random
A probability distribution must satisfy the following conditions:
variable.
IN WORDS: IN SYMBOLS:
1. The probability of each value of the
0 ≤ P (x) ≤ 1
discrete random variable is between 0 and
1, inclusive.
1 – means event is very likely to occur
(100%) ΣP (x) = 1
0 – its not likely to occur (0%)
TOSSING A (SINGLE)
FAIR COIN
What is the probability of
Let:
getting a head?
S – sample space
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

n(S) – total number of outcomes X: n(E)


0 1
X – (event) random variable (H) (H)

that will come up P(X): n(E)/n(s) 1/2 1/2


P(X) – probability function
Sample Space: S = ΣP(x) = 1/2 + 1/2 = 1
{ tail, head }
n(S) = 2 outcomes
What is the probability ofP (H)= 1/2
getting a head?
What is the probability ofP (T)= 1/2
getting a tail?
TOSSING A THREE FAIR
COINS
Construct a probability distribution of getting a
tail.
Sample Space: S = { HHH, HHT, THH , THT,
TTH, HTT, HTH, TTT }
Number of Outcomes:
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION n(S) = 8

0 1 2 3
X: n(E)
(T) (T) (T) (T)
ΣP(x) = 1/8 + 3/8 + 3/8 +
P(X):
n(E)/n(s)
1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
1/8 = 1

What is the probability of P (2T)= 3/8


getting
What is 2 tails?
the probability of P (0T)= 1/8
getting is
What no tail?
the probability of P (3H)= 1/8
PLAYING CARDS

Without replacement, a card is drawn from a


well-shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Number of Outcomes:
n(S) = 52
What is the probability of
getting:
a. Number “5” spade

b. A “Queen”
PLAYING CARDS

Without replacement, a card is drawn from a


well-shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Number of Outcomes:
n(S) = 52
What is the probability of
getting:
c. A “King” of red color

d. A Face and a Black Card


MARBLES

A box containing 30 red, 20 blue and 40 green


Number of Outcomes: n(S) = 30 + 20 +
marbles.
40 = 90 marbles
Without replacement, what is
the probability, P(X), of
getting:
a. green

b. a blue or red

c. not a blue
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
Your aunt has 3 children. What is the probability that
they are
Note: 2 = all girls? (Male or a
genders
Female)
3 = children
n(S) = 2x2x2 = 8 ways
Since the chance of a child being a girl is ½ (one female
out of 2 genders)
So, the chance of all three being girls is (1/2) (1/2) (1/2) =
Alternatively, make a list of all possible outcomes:
1/8
{GGG,GGB,GBG,BGG,GBB,BGB,BBG,BBB}.

As each one is equally likely, the chance of GGG is again


1/8.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS:

• MEAN
• VARIANCE
• STANDARD DEVIATION
MEAN
of Discrete Probability
FORMULA Distribution
• Mean: µ = ∑X ⦁ P(X)

STEPS
• Construct the probability
distribution.
• Multiply the value of the
random variable X by the
corresponding probability
P(X).
• Get the sum (results)
VARIANCE
of Discrete Probability
Distribution
STANDARD DEVIATION
of Discrete Probability
Distribution
SAMPLE PROBLEM #1
Consider rolling a die. What is the average number of
spots that would appear?
SAMPLE PROBLEM #1
The number of hours of facebook users in a certain building with its
corresponding probabilities is given in the table below. Complete the
table, then compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
probability distribution.
ACTIVITY #2
The number of cars per day at a local card dealership, along with its
corresponding probabilities , is shown in the succeeding table. Compute
the MEAN, VARIANCE , and STANDARD DEVIATION.
THANK YOU
FOR LISTENING!

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