NUMERACY LEVEL 3

PROBABILITY
 PROBABILITY
 The probability of something happening is the likelihood or chance of
it happening. Values of probability lie between 0 and 1, where 0
represents an absolute impossibility and 1 represents an absolute
certainty.
 The probability of an event happening usually lies somewhere
between these two extreme values and is expressed either as a proper
or decimal fraction.

 Examples of probability are:

 that a length of copper wire has zero resistance at 100°C 0
 CONTINUATION

 that a fair, six-sided dice will stop with a 3 upwards or 0.1667

 that a fair coin will land with a head upwards or 0.5
 that a length of copper wire has some resistance at 100°C 1
 CONTINUATION

 If p is the probability of an event happening and q is the probability

of the same event not happening, then the total probability is p + q
and is equal to unity,
 since it is an absolute certainty that the event either does or does not
occur, i.e. p + q =1
 EXPECTATION

 The expectation, E, of an event happening is defined as the

product of the probability p of an event happening and the number
of attempts made, n, i.e. E = P n.
 CONTINUATION

 Thus, since the probability of obtaining a 3 upwards when rolling a

fair dice is 1/6, the expectation of getting a 3 upwards on four throws
of the dice is
 4,

 Thus, expectation is the average occurrence of an event

 DEPENDENT EVENT

 A dependent event is one in which the probability of an event

happening affects the probability of another ever happening.
 Let 5 transistors be taken at random from a batch of 100 transistors
for test purposes, and the probability of there being a defective
transistor, p1, be determined.
 CONTINUATION

 At some later time, let another 5 transistors be taken at random from

the 95 remaining transistors in the batch and the probability of there
being a defective transistor, p2, be determined. The value of p2 is
different from p1 since batch size has effectively altered from 100 to
95,
 i.e. probability p2 is dependent on probability p1. Since transistors are
drawn, and then another 5 transistors drawn without replacing the first
5, the second random selection is said to be without replacement.
 INDEPENDENT EVENT

 An independent event is one in which the probability of an event

happening does not affect the probability of another event happening.
 If 5 transistors are taken at random from a batch of transistors and the
probability of a defective transistor p1 is determined and the process is
repeated after the original 5 have been replaced in the batch to give p2,
then p1 is equal to p2.
 Since the 5 transistors are replaced between draws, the second
selection is said to be with replacement.
 TYPES OF PROBABILITY

Classical Probability

This is a specific type of theoretical probability where outcomes are

equally likely and there's a known number of total outcomes.

EXAMPLE: flipping a fair coin has a ½ probability of landing on

heads and a ½ probability of landing on tails.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 Conditional probability is concerned with the probability of say event

B occurring, given that event A has already taken place.
 If A and B are independent events, then the fact that event A has
already occurred will not affect the probability of event B.
 If A and B are dependent events, then event A having occurred will
affect the probability of event B.
 LAWS OF PROBABILITY

 The addition law of probability

 The addition law of probability is recognized by the word ‘or’ joining
the probabilities.
 If pA is the probability of event A happening and pB is the probability
of event B happening, the probability of event A or event B happening
is given by pA +pB (provided events A and B are mutually exclusive,
A and B are events which cannot occur together).
 Similarly, the probability of events A or B or C or...N happening is
given by pA + pB + pC+···+pN
 THE MULTIPLICATION LAW OF PROBABILITY

 The multiplication law of probability is recognized by the word ‘ and

’ joining the probabilities. If pA is the probability of event A
happening and pB is the probability of event B happening, the
probability of event A and event B happening is given by pA ×pB.
 Similarly, the probability of events A and B and C and...N happening
is given by:
pA × pB × pC ×···× pN
 EXAMPLE

 Determine the probabilities of selecting at random (a) a man, and (b)

a woman from a crowd containing 20 men and 33 women.
 SOLUTION

a)The probability of selecting at random a man, p, is given by the

ratio:
number of men/number in crowd
P =
= or 0.3774
 CONTINUATION

b)The probability of selecting at random a women, q, is given by

the ratio:
number of women
number in crowd
q=
or 0.6226
EXAMPLE 2

 Find the expectation of obtaining a 4

upwards with 3 throws of a fair dice.
 SOLUTION

 Expectation is the average occurrence of an event and is defined as the

probability times the number of attempts. The probability, p, of
obtaining a 4 upwards for one throw of the dice, is
 1/6
Also, 3 attempts are made, hence n = 3 and the expectation, E, is Pn,
E=×3
=1/2 or 0.50
 Example 3

 Calculate the probabilities of selecting at random: (a) the winning

horse in a race in which 10 horses are running, (b) the winning
horses in both the first and second races if there are 10 horses in
each race.
SOLUTION

(a) Since only one of the ten horses can win, the
probability of selecting at random the winning horse is
number of winners
number of horses

=1/10 or 0.10
 CONTINUATION

(b)The probability of selecting the winning horse in the first race is

1/10.
 The probability of selecting the winning horse in the second race is
1/10. The probability of selecting the winning horses in the first and
second race is given by the multiplication law of probability,
Probability= 1/10 ×1/10
=1/100 or 0.01
 EXERCISE

 1. In a batch of 45 lamps there are 10 faulty lamps. If one lamp is

drawn at random, find the probability of it being (a) faulty and (b)
satisfactory.
 CONTINUATION

 2. (a)Find the probability of having a 2 upwards when throwing a

fair 6-sided dice. (b) find the probability of having a 5 upwards when
throwing a fair 6-sided dice. (c) determine the probability of having
a 2 and then a 5 on two successive throws of a fair 6-sided dice.
 CONTINUATION

 3. The probability of event A happening is 3/5 and the

probability of event B happening is 2/3.
 Calculate the probabilities of (a) both A and B
happening, (b) only event A happening, i.e. event A
happening and event B not happening, (c) only event
B happening, and (d) either A, or B, or A and B
happening.
 The end

 “mathematics is a universal subject”

 EXAMPLE 1

 A batch of 40 components contains 5 which are defective. A

component is drawn at random from the batch and tested and then a
second component is drawn. Determine the probability that neither
of the components is defective when drawn (a) with replacement,
and (b) without replacement.
 SOLUTION

 (a) With replacement

 The probability that the component selected on the first draw is
satisfactory is
 35/40

 7/8
 CONTINUATION
 The component is now replaced and a second draw is made. The
probability that this component is also satisfactory is
 7/8
 Hence, the probability that both he first component drawn and the
second component drawn are satisfactory is:
 × 7/8
= 49/64
 or 0.7656
 (b) Without replacement

 The probability that the first component drawn is satisfactory is 7/8

There are now only 34 satisfactory components left in the batch and
the batch number is 39.
Hence, the probability of drawing a satisfactory component on the second
draw is
 34/39
 Thus the probability that the first component drawn and the second
component drawn are satisfactory, neither is defective, is:
 7/8 ×34/39
=238/312 or 0.7628
 Example 2

 A batch of 40 components contains 5 that are defective. If a

component is drawn at random from the batch and tested and then a
second component is drawn at random, calculate the probability of
having one defective component, both with and without replacement.
 SOLUTION

 The probability of having one defective component can be achieved in two

ways. If p is the probability of drawing a defective component and q is the
probability of drawing a satisfactory component,
 then the probability of having one defective component is given by drawing a
satisfactory component and then a defective component or by drawing a
defective component and then a satisfactory one, i.e. by q × p + p × q
 With replacement
 p = 5/40
 = 1/8
 and q = 35/40
 = 7/8
 Hence, probability of having one defective component is:
 1/8 × 7/8 + 7/8 × 1/8
 7/64 × 7/64
= 7/32 or 0.2188
 Without replacement
 p1 = 1/8
 q1 = 7/ 8
 on the first of the two draws.
 The batch number is now 39 for the second draw,
 P2 = 5/39
 q2 = 35/39
 P1 × q2 + q1 × p2
 1/8 × 35 /39 +7/8 × 5/39
 35+35 /312
 = 70/312 or 0.2244
 EXERCISE

 The probability that component A will operate satisfactorily for

5 years is 0.8 and that B will operate satisfactorily over that
same period of time is 0.75. Find the probabilities that in a 5
year period: (a) both components operate satisfactorily, (b)
only component A will operate satisfactorily, and (c) only
component B will operate satisfactorily.