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The Weather Prediction Center

International Desk Trainee Case Study Presentations
International Desk Visitors are encouraged to develop a case study of relevance during their training at WPC. The case studies are documented in 15-25 minute powerpoint presentations that are here available in PDF format. Note that some of the presentations contain animations that are not visible on the PDFs.
TRAINEE INFO + PDF TITLE ABSTRACT
30. Julio Cabanerit
Country: Venezuela
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2016 July

PDF in English
Interaction between a shear line and the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in the Northwestern Coast of Venezuela. 25 November 2010 Heavy Rainfall Event. A heavy rainfall event occurred in the northern coast of Venezuela during the last week of November 2010. The heavy rains resulted from the interaction of the intertropical convergence zone, well to the north of its climatological position, and a shear line associated with a strong upper trough in the northern Caribbean. Some predictors explored and described include low-level moisture convergence, a few stability indices, SSTs and potential vorticity as an indicator of a strong upper trough over the northern Caribbean.
29. Lorne Salmon
Country: Antigua
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 September

PDF in English
Determining the potential for tornadoes in Northeast Caribbean Cyclones: Tornado in Antigua during Tropical Storm Chantal on 8 July 2013. A tornado went through the island of Antigua during the passage of Tropical Storm Chantal about 280km to its west-southwest. This study explores the behavior of different predictors identified by Oderlinde (2002) using GFS model data. It was found that 0-3km shear values exceeding 15m/s were present during the event. Comparison of the TFFR sounding against model data suggests that the model was underestimating the amount of shear. The tornado also occurred in the quadrant/sector of the storm, at a distance from the center and at a period of the diurnal cycle described to be favorable for tornadoes. the an important predictor is the low-level
28. David Romero
Country: Chile
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 September

PDF in English
Heavy Rainfall Events in Southern Chile during El Niño 2015 Five heavy rainfall events that affected Southern Chile during El Niño winter of 2015 are studied. The goal is to determine predictors and thresholds to better recognize the need to issue an advisory (alerta) before future similar events. The study found many similarities between the several cases studied. The most remarkable features were robust subtropical moisture connections/atmospheric rivers that arrived with precipitable water values of 20-35mm, very high for Southern Chile. Upper jet dynamics and orographic interactions also played a role. The direction of the low-level winds seem to matter for heavy rains extending from western slopes into the Central Valley. The latter occurred during the case where the low-level winds were west-northwesterly instead of north-northwesterly.
27. Dwight Samuel
Country: Suriname
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 July

PDF in English
TUTT-Induced Hail Event in Suriname The conditions that lead to the unusual January 2014 hail event in Suriname are studied. The results show that the thermodynamic parameters used to predict hail were marginally favorable. It appears that the dynamics were unusually strong for the latitude. Hail occurred when a potent upper trough accompanied by several short waves interacted with a perturbation arriving in the easterly trades during the diurnal peak of instability. A few predictors involved in the event are analyzed with ensemble forecasting constructed with four GFS model simulations. The results suggest that the model was able to resolve thermodynamic quantities more consistently than dynamic ones.
26. Gina Charpentier
Country: Chile
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 July

PDF in English
Forecasting Turbulence in the Austral FIR and Wind Gusts in SCCI: 15-16 June 2015 Case Study The study applies methods to evaluate the potential for turbulence to a case study of enhanced turbulence that affected extreme Southern Chile. The study also proposes a method to forecast near surface wind gusts in Southern South America. These are not only associated with vertical wind shear at low-levels but they seem to be enhanced by isentropic descent in the rear tier of occluded lows. This study developed Wingridds macros/scripts that can be used to forecasts wind gusts in Southern South America upon numerical model data.
25. Eusebio Cisneros
Country: Peru
Desk: South American
Training: Visiting Instructor
Date: 2015 June

PDF in English/Spanish
Mechanisms that favored the generation of thunderstorms in Iquitos, Peru during February 2015. This study explores the mechanisms that lead to the development/arrival of thunderstorms in the Iquitos, Peru airport during February 2015 affecting air travel. The study identifies several predictors and thresholds, and describes the influence ov waves in the trades, the Venezuela/Colombia northeasterly low-level jet, and a lee trough that forms between southern Venezuela and northern Peru during periods with northeasterly trades in northern South America.
24. Franklin Unsihuay
Country: Peru
Desk: South American
Training: Visiting Instructor
Date: 2015 May

PDF in English
Fog events in the city of Arequipa, Peru during February 10 2015. This study explores the conditions that lead to the periods of dense fog at the city of Arequipa, Peru during February 10, 2015.
23. Marcelo Schneider
Country: Brasil
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 May

PDF in English
Study of heavy rainfall events in the Sao Paulo Region after the peak of the Severe Drought of 2014-15. This study explores the conditions that led to two heavy rainfall events in the Sao Paulo area during February and March 2015, after the severe drought of 2014-15. The study looks into interactions between several scales: global, synoptic and mesoscale; and also explores the role of teleconnections, ENSO, MJO and rossby wave propagation.
22. Simon Craig
Country: Trinidad and Tobago
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 May

PDF in English
Extreme Rainfall Event in Trinidad and Tobago. October 1-4 2014. Several rounds of heavy rain and strong winds affected Trinidad and Tobago during the first four days of October 2014. This case study explores the factors that lead to these conditions and the way it was analyzed and forecasted.
21. Victoria Calle
Country: Peru
Desk: South American
Training: Visiting Instructor
Date: 2015 April

PDF in English
Heavy rains and mudslides in the Central Andes of Peru during 23 March 2015. A 5-day stretch of heavy rains and mudslides affected the Central Andes of Peru during late March 2015. These led to the deadly March 23rd 2015 mudslide in Chosica that killed 8, dissappeared 6 and displaced 250 families. The case study explores the conditions that lead to the heavy rains and deadly Chosica mudslide and the Weather Service/Warning Communication System responses.
20. Vladimir Arreaga
Country: Ecuador
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 March

PDF in English
Heavy Rainfall Event in Ecuador. March 16-19 2015. Heavy rains affected most of continental Ecuador during the 16-19 March 2015 period, initially peaking over the Pacific Basin and then peaking over the Andes and Amazon regions. The case study describes this event, including the identification of heavy rainfall predictors for the three aforementioned regions: the Pacific coast, the Andes and the Amazon rainforest.
19. Radjkoemar Nanda
Country: Suriname
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 March

PDF in English
The occurrence of radiation fog and mist at the SMJP airport in Suriname. Fog is one of the meteorological situations that affects operations at the Zanderij airport SMJP in Suriname. This study explores the climatology of fog over SMJP, identifies relevant predictors, and tests these into three recent fog events.
18. Ricardo Duran
Country: Peru
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 January

PDF in English
Anomalous snowfall in South and Central Peru during January 2015. The unusually snowy January of 2015 in the Andes of Peru prompted an interest to understand the underlying causes. This study focuses on finding predictors for summer snowfall in the Peruvian Andes. Four predictors and relevant thresholds were identified: (1) temperature < -2.8°C in the 500-550 hPa layer, (2) moisture flux convergence greater than 6x10^8 m-2 s-2 in the same layer, (3) relative humidity greater than 75% in the same layer, and (4) omegas lower than -2 bar/s in the 400-450 layer. Wingridds macros/scripts were developed and tested succesfully during new snowfall events.
17. Maclean JnBaptiste
Country: St. Lucia
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2015 January

PDF in English
Severe flooding event in St. Lucia during 8 November 2014. Hours of heavy rain affected St. Lucia during November 8 2014, which lead to widespread flooding. An unusually strong upper trough had displaced the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward into the Windward islands, where a weak easterly wave entered in phase with a short wave upper trough. The predictors and thresholds identified were (1) precipitable water > 50mm and (2) GDI > 40. Enhanced upper divergence associated with the short wave upper trough played a role. Continuous model corrections however limited confidence on the establishment of threshold values and event predictability.
16. Mauricio Caroca
Country: Chile
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 November

PDF in English
Effects of a cold core low in Northern Chile during 13 September 2014. Strong cold core upper low off Northern Chile produced precipitation in regions that usually receive very little rainfall. The system also produced snowfall in the cordillera and dust storms in the Atacama desert. The study explores the case applying different forecasting tools and methods used at the South American Desk such as upper jet analysis, isentropic analysis and the forecast funnel. It also discusses local applications of GFS data such as the recognition of potential Atacama dust storms in forecast wind profiles.
15. Jose Medina
Country: Dominican Republic
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 November

PDF in English
Heavy rainfall event in the Dominican Republic during the wet-to-dry transition. Strong convection and heavy rains occurred on the afternoon of October 26 2015 as a cold front and shear line entered Hispaniola after several days under the influence of a mid-level ridge. The study explores different aspects behind the evolution of the event.
14. Sergio Jalfin
Country: Argentina
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 September

PDF in Spanish
Severe thunderstorms and intense cyclogenesis in Central Argentina. August 22-26 2014. A sudden hailstorm affected Buenos Aires during August 24 2014, during the unraveling of a strong cyclogenesis event. The study uses this case to go over a list of fields that should be analyzed when forecasting severe weather in Argentina such as mid-level height falls, advection of cyclonic vorticity at mid-levels, stability indices, moisture availability and distribution in the vertical, upper jet dynamics. etc. It also elaborates with further detail on the conditions that lead to the development of hail storms in the Buenos Aires province.
13. Pablo Valverde
Country: Costa Rica
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 September

PDF in Spanish
Mesoscale Convective Complex in the Caribbean Coast of Costa Rica. August 15-16 2014. A strong mesoscale convective complex developed off the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica during the late night hours of August 15 2014 and meandered westward into coastal areas producing rainfall totals of 50-160mm/day.
12. Anete Fernandes
Country: Brasil
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 July

PDF in Portuguese
Trade wind disturbance in the Northeastern Coast of Brasil. A perturbation in the trades arrived in the Northeastern Coast of Brasil producing rainfall totals near 300mm in three days in Natal. The study explores the conditions that lead to the excessive amounts and GFS model use and performance in the forecasting of such a localized event.
11. Juan Jose Amides Figueroa
Country: El Salvador
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 July

PDF in Spanish
Heavy rains in Northern Central America from Late Season Cold Front and Pre-frontal Trough. A slow-progressing late-season cold front and pre-frontal trough over Northern Central America lead to heavy rains over el Salvador. Often these systems ffect the area in a time of the year when moisture and instability are limited. But by early May airmasses over the region are often less stable and moister. In this case, the pre-frontal trough and associated weak winds stimulated the sea breeze, convective instability and aided deep-layer moisture transport from the Tropical Pacific. This lead to recurrent heavy thunderstorm development over El Salvador during May 01-03 2014.
10. Tania Ita
Country: Peru
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 May

PDF in Spanish
Fog in the city of Lima, Peru on 21 April 2014. This presentation explores the synoptic conditions that lead to a dense fog event at the Jorge Chavez International Airport near Lima, Peru. The event responded to (1) onshore winds across a sharp sea surface temperature gradient that transported a moist airmass into a much cooler environment favoring saturation; (2) confluence and convergence at 1000 hPa; and (3) a strengthening of the sea breeze circulation, which enhances subsidence and helps to strengthen the near-surface temperature inversion that traps the fog near the ground.
9. Pamela García
Country: Mexico
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 May

PDF in Spanish
Extraordinary hail storm in Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico. A strong storm with tennis-ball-sized hail affected the city of Xalapa, Mexico during 27 April 2014. The storms initiated due to diurnal heating. Their severity was yet favored by an increase in instability with respect to previous days as well as a drying over 500 hPa. The latter increased evaporational cooling and stimulated the formation of large hail.
8. Silvia Santos
Country: Brasil
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 March

PDF in English
Activities in the Tropical Desk and Presentation of a Case Study. A summary of the Tropical Desk activities is here presented together with a case study that elaborates on the interaction of a tropical wave and a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). A summary of the methods to determine the presence of tropical, easterly and tutt-induced wave is also presented.
7. Carmen Canul
Country: Mexico
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 March

PDF in English
Snowfall event over Sierra de Arteaga in Coahuila, Mexico. A heavy snowfall event occurred in the northeastern mountains of Mexico during late December 2013. This study explores the conditions behind the heavy snowfall event and expands on the tools and fields for its forecasting.
6. Valeria Vicente
Country: Argentina
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 January

PDF in English
Severe convection event in north-central Argentina and Uruguay. This study focuses on the South American Desk routine and on its application to the forecasting of severe convection in north-central Argentina.
5. Peter Fearon
Country: Jamaica
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2014 January

PDF in English
Echo training event over the Northern Bahamas. November 19-20, 2013. An echo training event occurred in the northern Bahamas during November 2013. A cold front approached the region and led to the establishment of deep-layer easterly flow in a region prone to the generation of storm cells. These produced large rainfall amounts in the northern Bahamas and especially southeastern florida, as cells followed the same path. This work expands on the echo training mechanism and on the predictors for such event.
4. Aldo Sánchez
Country: Argentina
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2013 November

PDF in Spanish
Severe thunderstorms in North-Central Argentina during October 31-November 1 2013. An extensive region in Argentina covering an area larger than Texas received rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch/day through the early morning of November 1 2013. Within this area, 13 stations in Cordoba and Santa Fe reached amounts between 50 and 150 mm/day. The several ingredients that interacted for the generation of such event are analyzed, being the most remarkable high values of precipitable water (>50mm), a low-level jet from the north, and enhanced upper divergence in the divergent (left) entrance of a subtropical upper jet.
3. Gilbert Miller
Country: Cayman Islands
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2013 November

PDF in English
Nortes event in Mexico. A Nortes event is a surge of strong northerly winds along coastal locations in the western Gulf of Mexico. It is caused by the combined effects of a robust polar high over the southwestern Plains of the USA and the funneling effects of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Strong orographic uplift as the winds interact with the mountains of southern and eastern Mexico can lead to excessive rainfall amounts. This presentation explores an early season event that produced diurnal rainfall totals between 100 and 200mm/day. It also elaborates on the forecast from the Tropical Desk perspective.
2. Sara Olivares
Country: Peru
Desk: South American
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2013 September

PDF in Spanish
South American Desk Routine and case study of cold front and shear line on Tropical South America. The South American Desk routine is briefly described. The study then focuses on a winter cold front that made it into 07S accompanied by a shear line that extendsd into the Peru-Colombia border.
1. Romayne Robinson
Country: Jamaica
Desk: Tropical
Training: Forecaster
Date: 2013 September

PDF in English
Short review of forecasting methods, tools and guidelines studied at the Tropical Desk. A short review of the methods, tools and guidelines for quantitative precipitation forecasting at the Tropical Desk is here reviewed. This includes the development and use of streamline analysis charts, interpretation of model guidance, analysis of waves in the trades, the use of timeseries and timesections, and the elaboration of forecast charts.




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