Cee 10
Cee 10
ECONOMICS
6th Semester,
B.Sc. Chemical Engineering
Session 2015
Delivered by:
Dr Usman Ali
➢ This method tends to increase the payout period above that found with no
interest charge and reflects advantages for projects that earn most of their
profits during the early years of the service life.
DETERMINING ACCEPTABLE RETURNS
➢ It is often possible to make a profit by the investment
of capital, but it is not always easy to determine if a
given return is sufficient to justify an investment.
➢ Many factors must be considered when deciding if a
return is acceptable, and it is not possible to give one
figure which will apply for all cases.
➢ When dealing with ordinary industrial operations,
profits cannot be predicted with absolute accuracy.
➢ Risk factors, therefore, must be given careful
consideration, and the degree of uncertainty involved
in predicted returns on investments plays an important
role in determining what returns are acceptable.
DETERMINING ACCEPTABLE RETURNS
➢ A certain amount of risk is involved in any type of investment, but
the degree of risk varies widely for different types of enterprises.
➢ For example, there is very little uncertainty in predicting returns on
capital invested in government bonds, and the chances of losing the
original capital are very small.
➢ However, money invested in a wildcat mining enterprise would
stand a good chance of being lost completely with no return
whatsoever.
➢ If capital is available for investment in a proposed enterprise, it
would also be available for use in other ventures.
➢ Therefore, a good basis for determining an acceptable return is to
compare the predicted return and the risks involved with returns
and risks in other types of investments.
DETERMINING ACCEPTABLE RETURNS
➢ Very conservative investments, such as government bonds, pay low
returns in the range of 5 to 7 percent, but the risk involved is practically
negligible.
➢ Preferred stocks yield returns of about 7 to 9 percent. There is some risk
involved in preferred-stock investments since a business depression or
catastrophe could cause reduction in returns or even a loss of the major
portion of the capital investment.
➢ Common stocks may yield very high returns; however, the returns
fluctuate considerably with varying economic conditions, and there is
always the possibility of losing much or all of the original investment.
➢ It can be stated that moderate risks are involved in common-stock
investments.
➢ Certainly, at least moderate risks are involved in most industrial projects.
In general, a 20 percent return before income taxes would be the
minimum acceptable return for any type of business proposition, even if
the economics appeared to be completely sound and reliable.
DETERMINING ACCEPTABLE RETURNS
➢ Many industrial concerns demand a predicted pretax
return of at least 30 percent based on reliable
economic estimates before they will consider investing
capital in projects that are known to be well
engineered and well designed.
➢ The final decision as to an acceptable return depends
on the probable accuracy of the predicted return and
on the amount of risk the investor wishes to take.
➢ Availability of capital, personal opinions, and intangible
factors, such as the response of the public to changes
or appearances, may also have an important effect on
the final decision.
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
➢ In industrial operations, it is often possible to produce
equivalent products in different ways.
➢ Although the physical results may be approximately the
same, the capital required and the expenses involved can
vary considerably depending on the particular method
chosen.
➢ Similarly, alternative methods involving varying capital and
expenses can often be used to carry out other types of
business ventures.
➢ It may be necessary, therefore, not only to decide if a given
business venture would be profitable, but also to decide
which of several possible methods would be the most
desirable.
➢ The final decision as to the best among alternative investments is
simplified if it is recognized that each dollar of additional investment
should yield an adequate rate of return.
➢ In practical situations, there are usually a limited number of choices, and
the alternatives must be compared on the basis of incremental increases
in the necessary capital investment.
➢ The following simple example illustrates the principle of investment
comparison. A chemical company is considering adding a new production
unit which will require a total investment of $1,200,000 and will yield an
annual profit of $240,000.
➢ An alternative addition has been proposed requiring an investment of $2
million and yielding an annual profit of $300,000. Although both of these
proposals are based on reliable estimates, the company executives feel
that other equally sound investments can be made with at least a 14
percent annual rate of return.
➢ Therefore, the minimum rate of return required for the new investment is
14 percent.
➢ The rate of return on the $1,200,000 unit is 20 percent, and
that for the alternative addition is 15 percent. Both of these
returns exceed the minimum required value, and it might
appear that the $2 million investment should be
recommended because it yields the greater amount of
profit per year.
➢ However, a comparison of the incremental investment
between the two proposals shows that the extra
investment of $800,000 gives a profit of only $60,000, or an
incremental return of 7.5 percent.
➢ Therefore, if the company has $2 million to invest, it would
be more profitable to accept the $1,200,000 proposal and
put the other $800,000 in another investment at the
indicated 14 percent return.
➢ A general rule for making comparisons of alternative
investments can be stated as follows: The minimum
investment which will give the necessary functional results
and the required rate of return should always be accepted
unless there is a specific reason for accepting an alternative
investment requiring more initial capital.
➢ When alternatives are available, therefore, the base plan
would be that requiring the minimum acceptable
investment.
➢ The alternatives should be compared with the base plan,
and additional capital would not be invested unless an
acceptable incremental return or some other distinct
advantage could be shown.
REPLACEMENTS
➢ The term “replacement,” as used in this chapter, refers
to a special type of alternative in which facilities are
currently in existence and it may be desirable to
replace these facilities with different ones.
➢ Although intangible factors may have a strong
influence on decisions relative to replacements, the
design engineer must understand the tangible
economic implications when a recommendation is
made as to whether or not existing equipment or
facilities should be replaced.
The reasons for making replacements can be divided into two general
classes, as follows:
1. An existing property must be replaced or changed in order to
continue operation and meet the required demands for service or
production. Some examples of reasons for this type of necessary
replacement are:
a. The property is worn out and can give no further useful service.
b. The property does not have sufficient capacity to meet the demand placed upon it.
c. Operation of the property is no longer economically feasible because changes in
design or product requirements have caused the property to become obsolete.
2. An existing property is capable of yielding the necessary product or
service, but more efficient equipment or property is available which
can operate with lower expenses.
➢ When the reason for a replacement falls in the first general type,
the only alternatives are to make the necessary changes or else go
out of business. Under these conditions, the final economic analysis
is usually reduced to a comparison of alternative investments.
➢ The correct decision as the the desirability of replacing an existing
property which is capable of yielding the necessary product or
service depends on a clear understanding of theoretical
replacement policies plus a careful consideration of many practical
factors.
➢ In order to determine whether or not a change is advisable, the
operating expenses with the present equipment must be compared
with those that would exist if the change were made.
➢ Practical considerations, such as amount of capital available or
benefits to be gained by meeting a competitor’s standards, may
also have an important effect on the final decision.
Methods of Profitability Evaluation
for Replacements
➢ The same methods that were explained and applied earlier in this
chapter are applicable for replacement analyses. Net-present-worth
and discounted-cashflow methods give the soundest results for
maximizing the overall future worth of a concern.
➢ However, for the purpose of explaining the basic principles of
replacement economic analyses, the simple rate-of-return-on-
investment method of analysis is just as effective as those methods
involving the time value of money.
➢ Thus, to permit the use of direct illustrations which will not detract
from the principles under consideration, the following analysis of
methods for economic decisions on replacements uses the annual
rate of return on initial investment as the profitability measure.
➢ The identical principles can be treated by more complex rate-of-
return and net-present-worth solutions by merely applying the
methods described earlier in this chapter.
Book Values and Unamortized Values
➢ The difference between the book value and the net realizable value at any
time is commonly designated as the unamortized value. In the example,
the unamortized value was $15,000 - $6000 = $9000. This means that a
$9000 loss was incurred because of incorrect estimation of depreciation
allowances.
➢ Much of the confusion existing in replacement studies is caused by
unamortized values. Some individuals feel that a positive unamortized
value represents a loss which would be caused by making a replacement.
➢ This is not correct because the loss is a result of past mistakes, and the
fact that the error was not apparent until a replacement was considered
can have no bearing on the conditions existing at the present time.
➢ When making theoretical replacement studies, unamortized values must
be considered as due to past errors, and these values are of no
significance in the present decision as to whether or not a replacement
should be made.
Investment on which Replacement
Comparison is Based
➢ As indicated in the preceding section, the unamortized
value of an existing property is based on past conditions
and plays no part in a replacement study. The advisability of
making a replacement is usually determined by the rate of
return which can be realized from the necessary
investment.
➢ It is, therefore, important to consider the amount of the
investment. The difference between the total cost of the
replacement property and the net realizable value of the
misting property equals the necessary investment.
➢ Thus, the correct determination of the investment involves
only consideration of the present capital outlay required if
the replacement is made.
Net Realizable Value
➢ In replacement studies, the net realizable value of
an existing property should be assumed to be the
market value.
➢ Although this may be less than the actual value of
the property as far as the owner is concerned, it
still represents the amount of capital which can
be obtained from the old equipment if the
replacement is made.
➢ Any attempt to assign an existing property a
value greater than the net realizable value tends
to favor replacements which are uneconomical.
Activity
A proposed chemical plant will require a fixed
capital investment of $10 million. It is estimated
that the working capital will amount to 25
percent of the total investment, and annual
depreciation costs are estimated to be 10
percent of the fixed-capital investment. If the
annual profit will be $3 million, determine the
standard percent return on the total investment
and the minimum payout period.
Activity
An investigation of a proposed investment has
been made. The following result has been
presented to management: The minimum
payout period based on capital recovery using a
minimum annual return of 10 percent as a
fictitious expense is 10 years; annual
depreciation costs amount to 8 percent of the
total investment. Using this information,
determine the standard rate of return on the
investment.
Activity
The information given in Prob. 2 applies to
conditions before income taxes. If 34 percent of
all profits must be paid out for income taxes,
determine the standard rate of return after
taxes using the figures given in previous
problem.
Activity
A heat exchanger has been designed and insulation is being considered for
the unit. The insulation can be obtained in thickness of 1, 2, 3, or 4 in. The
following data have been determined for the different insulation thicknesses:
All other costs are the same for either type of power plant. A 12 percent
return is required on any investment. If one of these power plants must be
accepted, which one should be recommended?
Activity
The facilities of an existing chemical company must be increased if the
company is to continue in operation. There are two alternatives. One of the
alternatives is to expand the present plant. If this is done, the expansion
would cost $130,000. Additional labor costs would be $150,000 per year,
while additional costs for overhead, depreciation, taxes, and insurance would
be $60,000 per year. A second alternative requires construction and operation
of new facilities at a location about 50 miles from the present plant. This
alternative is attractive because cheaper labor is available at this location. The
new facilities would cost $200,000. Labor costs would be $120,000 per year.
Overhead costs would be $70,000 per year. Annual insurance and taxes would
amount to 2 percent of the initial cost. All other costs except depreciation
would be the same at each location. If the minimum return on any acceptable
investment is 9 percent, determine the minimum service life allowable for the
facilities at the distant location for this alternative to meet the required
incremental return. The salvage value should be assumed to be zero, and
straight-line depreciation accounting may be used.
Activity
A chemical company is considering replacing a batch-wise reactor with
a modernized continuous reactor. The old unit cost $40,000 when new
5 years ago, and depreciation has been charged on a straight-line basis
using an estimated service life of 15 years and final salvage value of
$1000. It is now estimated that the unit has a remaining service life of
10 years and a final salvage value of $1000. The new unit would cost
$70,000 and would result in an increase of $5000 in the gross annual
income. It would permit a labor saving of $7000 per year. Additional
costs for taxes and insurance would be $1000 per year. The service life
is estimated to be 12 years with a final salvage value of $1000. All costs
other than those for labor, insurance, taxes, and depreciation may be
assumed to be the same for both units. The old unit can now be sold
for $5000. If the minimum required return on any investment is 15
percent, should the replacement be made?
Activity
The owner of a small antifreeze plant has a small canning unit
which cost him $5000 when he purchased it 10 years ago. The
unit has completely depreciated, but the owner estimates
that it will still give him good service for 5 more years. At the
end of 5 years the unit will be worth a junk value of $100. The
owner now has an opportunity to buy a more efficient
canning unit for $6000 having an estimated service life of 10
years and zero salvage or junk value. This new unit would
reduce annual labor and maintenance costs by $1000 and
increase annual expenses for taxes and insurance by $100. All
other expenses except depreciation would be unchanged. If
the old canning unit can be sold for $600, what replacement
return on his capital investment will the owner receive if he
decides to make the replacement?