Chapter 2: Static Game Theory.: 2.1. Normal Form and Extensive Form Games
Chapter 2: Static Game Theory.: 2.1. Normal Form and Extensive Form Games
In this chapter we will look at how static games can be represented, and
examine some ways that have been suggested for how they might be solved.
A solution to a game is a prediction of what each player in that game will do.
In static games the players make their moves in isolation without knowing
what other players have done. This does not necessarily mean that all
decisions are made at the same time, but rather only as if the decisions were
made at the same time. An example of a static game is a one-off sealed bid
auction. In this type of auction each player submits only one bid, without
knowing what any of the other players have bid. The highest bid is then
accepted as the purchase price. In contrast to static games, dynamic games
have a sequence to the order of play and players observe some, if not all, of
one another’s moves as the game progresses. An example of a dynamic
game is a so called English auction. Here players openly bid up the price of
an object. The final and highest bid is accepted as the purchase price.
The players in a game are the individuals who make the relevant decisions.
For there to be interdependence we need to have at least two players in the
game. In most of the applications we look at there will only be two players. In
some games “Nature” is considered a further player, whose function is to
determine the outcome of certain random events, such as the weather or the
“type” of players in the game.
A payoff is what a player will receive at the end of the game contingent upon
the actions of all the players in the game.A normal form game shows the
payoffs for every player, except Nature, for every possible combination of
available strategies. These are then represented in the form of a matrix or
matrices. The payoffs are defined so that the players in the game always
prefer higher to smaller payoffs. For example, the payoffs may correspond to
monetary rewards, such as profits, or the utility each player obtains at the end
of the game. A player is said to be rational when he seeks to maximize his
payoff. If a player does not have this objective they are said to be irrational,
because they are not acting in their own self interest.
To make the ideas discussed more specific we will look at one well known
static game called “The Prisoners’ Dilemma”. In this game the police have
arrested two suspects of a crime. However they lack sufficient evidence to
convict either of them unless at least one of them confesses. The police hold
the two suspects in separate cells and explain the consequences of their
possible actions. If neither confess then both will be convicted of a minor
offense and sentenced to one month in prison. If both confess they will be
sent to prison for six months. Finally, if only one of them confesses, then that
prisoner will be released immediately while the other one will be sentenced to
nine months in prison - six months for the crime and a further three months for
obstructing the course of justice.
CONFESS DON’T
CONFESS
DON’T
CONFESS -9,0 -1,-1
(-6 , -6)
CONFESS
2.
CONFESS
DON'T
1. CONFESS (0 , -9)
2.
DON'T
CONFESS
(-1 , -1)
Starting at the left of the diagram the open circle represents the first
decision to be made in the game. It is labeled 1 to show that it is prisoner 1
that makes this decision. The branches coming out of this initial node
represent the actions available to the player at that point in the game.
Prisoner 1 can either confess to the crime or not confess. At the end of these
branches there is a node representing prisoner 2’s decision. Again this
prisoner can either confess to the crime or not confess, as given by the
branches coming from his decision nodes. However prisoner 2 makes this
decision without knowing what prisoner 1 has done. This is shown by joining
prisoner 2’s decision nodes with a dotted line. This dotted line shows that the
connected nodes are in the same information set. This means that prisoner 2
is unable to distinguish which of the two nodes he is at, at the time this
decision is made. This is because he does not know if prisoner 1 has
confessed or not confessed to the crime. Finally at the end of the game we
have the payoffs for each player. These are again dependent on what each
prisoner has done in the game, and they are listed in the order of the players
in the game, i.e. prisoner 1’s payoff is first, and prisoner 2’s payoff is second.
Generalizing from Figure 2.2 we can state that extensive form games
have the following four elements in common :
Nodes. This is a position in the game where one of the players must
make a decision. The first position, called the initial node, is an
open dot, all the rest are filled in. Each node is labeled so as to
identify who is making the decision.
Vectors. These represent the payoffs for each player, with the
payoffs listed in the order of players. When we reach a
payoff vector the game ends. When these payoff vectors
are common knowledge the game is said to be one of
complete information. (Information is common
knowledge if it is known by all players, and each player
knows it is known by all players, and each player knows
that it is known that all players know it, and so on ad
infinitum.) If, however, players are unsure of the payoffs
other players can receive then it is an incomplete
information game.
Information Sets. When two or more nodes are joined together by a dashed
line this means that the player whose decision it is does not
know which node he is at. When this occurs the gameis
characterized as one of imperfect information. When each
decision node is its own information set the game is said to be
one of perfect information, as all players know the outcome of
previous decisions.
Each node has at least one branch pointing out of it (some action is
available to the player) and at most one branch pointing into it. (The
initial node has no branch pointing to it.)
This means that at whatever node we begin at there is only one possible path
back to the initial node and we never cycle back to the node we started from.
For this reason extensive form games always look like trees. From the initial
node we always branch out and a branch never grows back into itself.
We have now seen that there are two different ways of representing
the same game, either as a normal form game or as an extensive form game.
The normal form gives the minimum amount of information necessary to
describe a game. It lists the players, the strategies available to each player,
and the resulting payoffs to each player. The extensive form gives additional
details about the game concerning the timing of the decisions to be made and
the amount of information available to each player when each decision has to
be made. Clearly the two forms are closely related and we can state the
following two results :
For every extensive form game there is one and only one
corresponding normal form game.
Two rival firms are thinking of launching a similar product at the same time. If
both firms launch the product then they will each make a profit of £40,000. If
only one firm launches its product then it can act as a monopolist and will
make a profit of £100,000. If either firm decides not to launch the product that
firm makes a loss of £50,000, due to costs already incurred in developing the
product.
Exercise 2.2.
Interpret the following diagrams and discuss whether they
represent valid extensive form games.
(i).
(1)
Heads
A.
(ii).
Heads
Pr = 0.5 (1 , 1)
Tails
(0) B1
Nature. B.
(2 , 2)
A1
Tails Heads (0) A.
A1 B2
Pr = 0.5 (0 , 0)
A. A2
A.
A1
Tails (0 , 0)
A2 B2
A.
(1)
A2
(iii). B. (2 , 2)
(iv). B1
(2 , 0) (1 , 1)
B1
B. (1 , 1 , 1)
B2
(2 , 1) B1
B.
A1 B3
(2 , 2)
A. A1 (2 , 0 , 2)
B2 C1
A. C.
A2 (2 , 2)
B1
B2
A2
B. C2
B2 (2 , 2 , 2)
(2 , 1) B.
B1
(1 , 1 , 1)
2.2. Solution Techniques for Solving Static Games.
As stated at the beginning of this chapter a solution to a game is a
prediction of what each player in that game will do. This may be a very
precise prediction, where the solution gives one optimal strategy for each
player. When this occurs the solution is said to be unique. However, it is often
the case that the solution to a particular game is less precise, even to the
extent that none of the available strategies are ruled out. As may be expected
many different solution techniques have been proposed for different types of
games. For static games two broad solution techniques have been applied.
The first set of solution techniques rely on the concept of dominance. Here
the solution to a game is determined by attempting to rule out strategies that a
rational person would never play. Arguments based on dominance seek to
answer the question “What strategies would a rational player never play ?”
The second set of solution techniques are based on the concept of
equilibrium. In non-cooperative games an equilibrium occurs when none of
the players, acting individually, have an incentive to deviate from the predicted
solution. With these solution techniques a game is solved by answering the
question “What properties does a solution need to have for it to be an
equilibrium ?”.
a. Strict Dominance.
It should be noted here that the cause of Pareto inefficiency is not that
the players cannot communicate, but rather that they cannot commit
themselves to the Pareto efficient outcome. Even if both prisoners agreed
before being arrested that neither of them will confess, once in custody it is in
their individual self interest to do the opposite. This illustrates the difference
between non-cooperative and cooperative game theory. In cooperative game
theory the two prisoner’s could enter into a binding and enforceable
agreement not to confess and so be made better off. This is not possible in
non-cooperative game theory.
Exercise 2.3
Solve the previous product launch game described in Exercise
2.1. using the principle of strict dominance.
b. Weak Dominance.
LEFT RIGHT
In this game player 1 has two possible strategies, “up” and “down”, and
player 2 has three possible strategies, “left”, “middle” and “right”. Initially
neither “up” nor “down” are strictly dominated by the other for player 1.
However for player 2 “right” is strictly dominated by “middle”. Appealing to
strict dominance we can reason that player 2 will never play “right”. If player 1
also knows that player 2 is rational and will not play “right”, then “up” now
strictly dominates “down” for player 1. Iterated strict dominance now predicts
that “down” will not be played. Finally if player 2 knows that player 1 will never
move “down” then iterated strict dominance predicts that player 2 will play
“middle”. The unique solution to this game based on successive or iterated
strict dominance is therefore “up/middle”.
UP 10 , 0 5,1 4 , -2
DOWN 10 , 1 5,0 1 , -1
Player 1
LEFT MIDDLE RIGHT
e. Nash Equilibrium.
As stated in the introduction to this section arguments based on
dominance ask the question “What strategies would a rational player never
play ? ” In contrast the concept of Nash equilibrium is motivated by the
question “What properties must an equilibrium have ? ” The answer to this
question from John Nash (1951), based on much earlier work by Cournot
(1838), was that in equilibrium each player’s chosen strategy is optimal given
that every other player chooses the equilibrium strategy. If this were not the
case then at least one player would wish to choose a different strategy and so
we could not be in an equilibrium. Again this concept seeks to apply the
economist’s assumption that individuals are rational in the sense that they
seek to maximize their own self interest.
Finding the Nash equilibrium for any game involves two stages. First,
we identify each player’s optimal strategy in response to what the other
players might do. This involves working through each player in turn and
determining their optimal strategies. This is done for every combination of
strategies by the other players. Second, a Nash equilibrium is identified when
all players are playing their optimal strategies simultaneously.
PRISONER 2
CONFESS DON’T
CONFESS
CONFESS -6 , -6 0 , -9
PRISONER 1
DON’T
CONFESS -9 , 0 -1 , -1
Stage One.
We first need to identify the optimal strategies for each prisoner,
dependent upon what the other prisoner might do. If prisoner 1 expects
prisoner 2 to confess then prisoner 1’s best strategy is also to confess (-6 is
better than -9). This is shown in Figure 2.7 by underlining this payoff element
for prisoner 1 in the cell corresponding to both prisoners confessing. If
prisoner 1 expects prisoner 2 not to confess, then prisoner 1’s best strategy is
still to confess (this time 0 is better than -1). Again we show this by
underlining this payoff element for prisoner 1. The same analysis is
undertaken for prisoner 2 and his best strategy payoffs are underlined.
Stage Two.
Next we determine whether a Nash equilibrium exists by examining the
occurrence of the previously identified optimal strategies. If all the payoffs in a
cell are underlined then that cell corresponds to a Nash equilibrium. This is
true by definition, since in a Nash equilibrium all players are playing their
optimal strategy given that other players also play their optimal strategies. In
the prisoners’ dilemma game only one cell has all its elements underlined.
This corresponds to both prisoners confessing, and so this is the unique Nash
equilibrium for this game.
This prediction for the prisoners’ dilemma game is the same as that
derived using strict dominance. In fact it is always true that a unique strict
dominance solution is the unique Nash equilibrium. The reverse of this
statement is, however, not always true. A unique Nash equilibrium is not
always a unique strict dominant solution. In this sense the Nash equilibrium is
a stronger solution concept than strict dominance. For this reason the Nash
equilibrium concept may predict a unique solution to a game where strict
dominance does not. This is illustrated in the game used previously to
demonstrate that a game may not be dominance solvable. This game shown
in Figure 2.6 is reproduced below in Figure 2.8. As stated before arguments
based on dominance applied to this game predict that anything can happen.
Using the two stage methodology of finding a (pure strategy) Nash equilibrium
however yields the unique prediction that player 1 will choose “down” and
player 2 will choose “right”. The concept of Nash equilibrium may therefore be
particularly useful when dominance arguments do not provide a unique
solution.
Player 2
Second, the above result does not rule out the possibility of multiple
Nash equilibria. Indeed many games do exhibit multiple Nash equilibria. With
multiple equilibria the problem is how to select one equilibrium from many. In
answer to this question numerous refinements of Nash equilibrium have been
proposed to try and restrict the set of possible equilibria. Some of these
refinements are discussed in later chapters.
Exercise 2.4.
State whether the following games have unique pure strategy
solutions, and if so what they are and how they can be found.
(i).
Player 2
Player 1 LEFT MIDDLE RIGHT
UP 4,3 2,7 0,4
DOWN 5,5 5 , -1 -4 , -2
(ii).
Player 2
Player 1 LEFT MIDDLE RIGHT
UP 4 , 10 3,0 1,3
DOWN 0,0 2 , 10 1,3
(iii).
Player 2
LEFT MIDDLE RIGHT
Player 1
UP 10 , 10 4,3 7,2
DOWN 5,6 8 , 10 6 , 12
GO TO GO TO
BOXING BALLET
GO TO 0,0 2,1
BALLET
The key feature of a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is that every pure
strategy played as part of the mixed strategy has the same expected value. If
this were not true a player would play the strategy that yields the highest
expected value to the exclusion of all others. This means the initial situation
could not have been an equilibrium. Here we show how to identify the mixed
strategy Nash equilibrium for the battle of the sexes game.
Let pr(boxing)H be the probability that the husband goes to the boxing match,
and pr(boxing)W the probability that the wife goes to the boxing match.
Similarly let pr(ballet)H be the probability that the man goes to the ballet, and
pr(ballet)W the probability that the woman goes to the ballet. As these are the
only two alternatives it must be true that pr(boxing) + pr(ballet) = 1 for both the
husband and wife. Given these probabilities we can calculate the expected
value of each persons possible action.
From the normal form game the expected payoff value for the wife if
she chooses to go to the boxing match is given as
EV(boxing) W = pr (boxing)H (1) + pr(ballet)W (0)
= pr(boxing)H
Similarly the expected payoff value if she goes to the ballet is
EV(ballet) W = pr (boxing)H(0) + pr (ballet)H (2)
= 2 pr (ballet)H
In equilibrium the expected value of these two strategies must be the
same and so we get
EV(boxing) W = EV(ballet) W
∴ pr(boxing)H = 2 pr(ballet)H
∴ 1 − pr(ballet)H = 2 pr(ballet)H
∴ 1 = 3 pr(ballet)H
1 2
∴ pr(ballet)H = and pr(boxing)H =
3 3
This means that in the mixed strategy equilibrium the husband will go to the
ballet with a 1/3 probability and the boxing with a 2/3 probability. We can
perform the same calculations for the husband’s expected payoff and derive
the similar result that in equilibrium his wife will go to the ballet with a
probability of 2/3 and the boxing with a probability of 1/3. With these individual
probabilities we can calculate that they will both go to the boxing with a
probability of 2/9, both go to the ballet with a probability of 2/9, and go to
separate events with a probability of 5/9.
Exercise 2.5.
Draw the normal form game for the following game and identify both the pure
and mixed strategy equilibria. In the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium
determine each firm’s expected profit level if it enters the market.
There are two firms that are considering entering a new market, and must
make their decision without knowing what the other firm has done.
Unfortunately the market is only big enough to support one ofthe two firms. If
both firms enter the market then they will each make a loss of £10 million. If
only one firm enters the market, that firm will earn a profit of £50 million,
and the other firm will just break even.
2.3. Conclusions
Exercise 2.1.
The normal and extensive forms for this static game are shown in
Figures 2.10 and 2.11 respectively :
Figure 2.10.
FIRM B
LAUNCH DON’T
FIRM A
LAUNCH
Figure 2.11.
Exercise 2.2.
(i). This is a one player static game against nature with imperfect
information. Nature determines the outcome of the toss of an unbiased coin.
Without knowing whether the outcome is heads (H) or tails (T), player A calls
chooses either heads or tails. If the call is correct the player wins a payoff of
1. If the call is wrong the player receives nothing. This diagram is a valid
extensive form game. In such games we assume that players simply
maximise their expected payoff. In particular there are no strategic
considerations in one player games. For this reason this book only analyses
games with two or more (rational) players.
(ii). This is a dynamic game with imperfect recall. Player A initially decides
between A1 and A2. This is observed by player B who then decides between
B1 and B2. If B1 is chosen the game ends. If B2 is chosen player A moves
again, playing either A1 or A2. Significantly these two final decision nodes are
in the same information set, which means that player A does know which one
they are at. However, the only difference in the paths to these nodes is player
A’s initial move. This means that player A must have forgotten what their first
move was ! This is a valid extensive form game, and indeed some economic
models have assumed that agents have imperfect recall. In this book,
however, we limit ourselves to games where all players have perfect recall.
This means that players do not forget any information that has been
previously revealed to them.
Exercise 2.3.
Strict dominance predicts that both firms will launch their respective
products because this gives each firm a higher pay-off whatever the
other firm does.
Exercise 2.4.
(i). The unique pure strategy equilibrium is “down/left”. This is both a Nash
equilibrium and an iterated strict dominant solution. The process of
elimination for the dominant solution is “right”, “up”, “middle”.
(ii). The unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium this time is “up/left”, and is
both a Nash equilibrium and an iterated weak dominant solution. The
process of elimination in the latter case is “down”, “middle”, “right”.
Exercise 2.5.
The normal form for this static entry game is given in Figure 2.12.
Figure 2.12.
Firm 2
Using the two stage method for finding a pure strategy Nash
equilibrium we can see that there are two such equilibria. Both involve one
firm entering the market, and the other firm staying out.
∴ 6 . pr(stay out)2 = 1
1 5
∴ pr(stay out)2 = and pr(enter )2 =
6 6
5 1
∴ EV(enter )1 = −10 . + 50 .
6 6
∴ EV(enter )1 = 0
The same result holds for firm 2. In the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium the
expected value for both firms if they enter the market is zero. This could have
been found by noting that this equals the expected value of not entering which
equals zero.
Further Reading.
Aumann, R. and S. Hart (1992) Handbook of Game Theory with Economic
Applications, New York : North-Holland.
Bierman, H. S. and L. Fernandez (1993) Game Theory with Economic
Applications, Reading, Mass. : Addison Wesley.
Dixit, A. and B. J. Nalebuff (1991) Thinking Strategically : The Competitive
Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life, New York : Norton.
Eatwell, J., M. Milgate and P. Newman (1989) The New Palgrave : Game
Theory, New York : W. W. Norton.
Gibbons, R. (1992) Game Theory for Applied Economists, Princeton :
Princeton University Press.
Kreps, D. (1990) A Course in Microeconomic Theory, New York : Harvester
Wheatsheaf.
Kreps, D. (1990) Game Theory and Economic Modelling, Oxford : Clarendon
Press.
Rasmusen, E. (1993) Games and Information, Oxford : Blackwell.
Varian, H. (1992) Microeconomic Analysis, New York : Norton.