Name: __________________ Class: ________________ Date: _______________

Math Lab: The Probability of an M&M

Introduction:
Since 2008, Mars© has stopped posting the proportions of colors found in their bags of M&Ms.
The following is a response from Mars© from 2008:

Our color blends were selected by conducting consumer preference tests, which indicate the assortment
of colors that pleased the greatest number of people and created the most attractive overall effect.

On average, our mix of colors for M&M'S CHOCOLATE CANDIES is:

M&M'S MILK CHOCOLATE: 24% cyan blue, 20% orange, 16% green, 14% bright yellow, 13% red,
13% brown.

We want to use this information to prove that their reported proportions are in fact correct. So we ask,
what is the probability of pulling a blue M&M?

The History of the Blue M&M:

This excerpt is taken from the childrenoftheninties.blogspot.com

“In 1995, a decision was made. The Mars company was to cease production of tan M&Ms. Scary but true, tan M&Ms
were once allowed to cohabit our bags with the more delicious-looking colors. Luckily, the people at Mars/M&Ms saw
the errors of the 50+ years of tan-producing ways. Reasons for the switch were vague and unclear; were people
speaking up against tan M&Ms? Were they upset that tan was essentially a knock-off of the coexisting brown M&M?
Were they concerned about their melanoma risk? No one knows for sure.

Whatever the reason, a decision was made and a massive marketing campaign launched. In a second's time, tan M&Ms
were a thing of the past. Suddenly, according to a multitude of M&M-related election propaganda, it was up to us to
pick a new color. Really, us! We could be a part of history. Well, candy history. If such a an area of study exists. Well,
either way, it seemed like a pretty legitimate endeavor in which to partake.

Suddenly, the playground was in an uproar; which color were you going to vote for? The options were finite (pink,
purple, and blue) and the constituency fiercely divided. Unfortunately, M&Ms major gaffe was picking a majority of
gender-biased hues for their new color options. It became the cool thing to pick blue, because we were all fairly certain
it was going to win. None of the boys in the four-square court were up to being outed for placing a vote for purple or
pink, and so it went.”

Note: Over 10 million votes were cast, and the blue M&M was born.

The Experiment:

Each of you, yes each of you, have been given a plastic cup. Inside that plastic cup are M&Ms.

You will use the following table to record your results and determine if Mars© actually reported
fairly accurate percentages. Round your answers to the nearest hundredth.
Experiment document created by Ms. L. Kirschenbaum 2015
Bronx Global Learning Institute for Girls
This table was adapted from: http://joshmadison.com/2007/12/02/mms-color-distribution-analysis/

Blue Brown Green Orange Red Yellow Total

Percent 24% 13% 16% 20% 13% 14% ------

Expected

Percent ------
Observed

Quantity
expected

Quantity
Observed

You will fill in from the bottom of the chart and then upwards. First dump out your M&M’s and record
the quantity of each color in the last row of your chart. Then find the probability of finding each color
and turn it into a percent. What do I mean? Let’s look at the following example.

Ms. K found 15 blue M&Ms in her pack of 32 total. The probability of picking a blue would be: 15/32
(Total Observed/Total Possible). Now she will jump in the pool and find the decimal representation: 15
divided by 32 is 0.47 rounded to the nearest hundredth. Therefore, the percent chance of picking a blue
M&M is 47%.

Blue _____ out of ______ Orange _____ out of ______

Brown _____ out of ______ Yellow _____ out of ______
Green _____ out of ______ Red _____ out of ______

Please show your work how you converted each probability statement into a percentage:

Blue Orange

Experiment document created by Ms. L. Kirschenbaum 2015

Bronx Global Learning Institute for Girls
Brown Green

Red Yellow

Conclusion:

Was Mars© correct in their report? Why or why not? How do you know?

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Experiment document created by Ms. L. Kirschenbaum 2015

Bronx Global Learning Institute for Girls