Chapter 4

PROBABILITIES

4.1 Counting Techniques

4.2 The Fundamental Principle
4.3 Permutations and Combinations
4.4 The Binomial Theorem

Chapter 4
 PROBABILITIES

4.1 Counting Techniques

Often, the number of possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is very large.
It can be quite difficult and certainly tedious to list all these outcomes and count them. In
many cases, however, rules can be developed for determining the number of outcomes
without actually counting.
In this chapter, we shall take some of the elementary counting techniques in this
field. These are useful in themselves. However, we shall also use them in the course of
solving some problems in the next chapter (Probability).

4.2 The Fundamental Principle

Suppose we are asked to determine how many numbers of two different digits
could be formed from the four integers 1,2,3,4 if no digits are repeated.
Any one of the four may be chosen for the tens digit of the number. If this has
been done, there will remain three integers from which to choose the units digit. So far,
in each of the initial four choices, there are three more choices possible, 4 x 3 = 12
different numbers possible.
We can illustrate the choices by the following tree diagram:

2 12
1 3 13
4 14
1 21
2 3 23
4 24

1 31
3 2 32
4 34

1 41
4 2 42
3 43

The preceding example illustrates the following principle:

Fundamental principle. If one thing can be done in a different way, and if a
second thing can be done independently b different ways, then the total number of ways
in which both these things may be done in stated order is
ab
The above rule can be generalized to include any (finite) number of activities.
For example, we could have been asked to determine how many numbers of
three different digits could be formed from the four integers 1,2,3,4 if no digits are
repeated.
Our solution would proceed in the same way as that for the first example for the
first two digits (hundreds and tens).
 Now for each of the 13 choices we arrived at, two final choices are possible so
that 4 x 3 x 2 = 24 numbers with the desired characteristics are possible.
Let us look at some more examples to develop to “feel” for the fundamental
principle.
EXAMPLES:
1. A five-centavo coin and ten-centavo coin are tossed. In how many ways can
they fall?
Solution: 2 x 2 = 4
A coin has 1 head and 1 tail =Since there are two coins five-centavo and ten
–centavo, the probability would be if you tossed it one time is 2 heads and 2 tails which
is all in all 4.

2. How many sets of answers are possible for a yes-or-no quiz of ten question?
Solution: 2 x 2 x . . . x 2 = 2¹° = 1024
3. How many numbers of 3 different digits less than 300 can be formed from
the integers 1,2,3,4,5?
Solution: 2 x 4 x 3
4. Suppose in the previous example we added the condition that the numbers
we obtain have to be odd. Make a tree diagram to illustrate the situation.
5. There are 5 roads between your barrio, Sta. Lucia and San Juan and 4
between San Juan and San Vicente. In how many ways can you walk from
your place to San Vicente and return, passing through San Juan on both
trips without travelling on the same road twice?
Solution: 5 x 4 x 3 x 4 = 240
6. From a deck of (bridge) cards, in how many ways can you pick the following
four cards – A,K,Q,J
a) If each of the four can belong to any suit?
b) If the four must belong to different suits?
c) If the four must belong to the heart suits?
d) If the four must belong to the same suit?
Solution:
a) 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 = 256
b) 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24
c) 1x1x1x1=1
d) 4x1x1x1=4
 7. In the problem we began the chapter with (obtaining a product table), the
company officials have a choice of a list of
21 x 5 x 24 x 23 = 57,960
Words.
4.3 Permutations and Combinations
We are now in a position to formulate counting rules for two types of
combinatorial
Problems. First, it is important to make the distinction between these two types.
Let us begin by comparing the following situations:
Problem 1. Four singers complete in a contest. How many results are possible for first,
second and third
places?
Problem 2. A college has four long-distance runners and has received an invitation to
send three runners
to meet. How many possible teams of three can the school’s athletic
moderator from among the four runners?
There is qualitative difference in these problems, which tells us that the count will
be different in each.
Let us attend to the firs problem in detail.
In a listing of winners in the contest involving singers (a), (b), (c) and (d), it its
important to distinguish who occupies first, second and third places. It is a, b, c, in that
order? Or is it a, c, b; or b, a, a?
d is 4th c is 4th b is 4th a is 4th
1 2 3
a b c a b d a c d b c d
a c b a d b a d c b d c
b a c b d a c d a c d b
c a b d a b d a c d b c
c b a d b a d c a d c b
Let us tabulate all of these possible placing:
 An arrangement such as one of the 24 above, where order is significant, is called
permutation.
Definition. Suppose that in an arrangement of k objects taken from a set of n
different objects, the order of arrangement is important. Then such an arrangement is
called a permutation.
In the above example, we are interested in finding the permutation of 3 singers
from a set of 4 singers. As suggested in the same example, we can represent a
permutation or arrangement p by using ordered triples. Above we considered ordered
triples like (b, a, c); in general, we can use ordered k-triples such as
p = (a, a, . . . , a)
1 2 k

It is relatively easy to list down all the possible permutations of n objects taken k
at a time, a number we denote by P (n, k) if there are only a few of these objects.
However, we have to develop a better method of counting P(n , k) for a larger number of
things.
Suppose a permutation of k objects taken from a set of n objects is given by
(a, a, . . ., a).
It is quite clear that we can select one object from n different things in n ways;
that is
P (n, 1) = n
In how many ways can we select 2 objects? That is what is P (n, 2)?
We can rephrase the problem this way. In how many ways can we fill two slots of
an ordered pair if we have n different objects to choose from?
The first slot can be filled by any of the n objects. Once we have put object x into
the first slot, we have only n-1 choices for slot 2. By the fundamental principle, we have
N (n-1)
possible ordered pairs, or in our notations
P (n, 2) = n (n-1)
In general, our problem is that of determining the number of ways the k slots of
an ordered k-triple can be filled if there are n objects to choose from. The fundamental
principle gives us the formula
P (n, k) = n(n-1) . . . (n-k+1)
 Theorem:
P (n, k) = n(n-1) . . . (n-k+1)
gives the number of permutations of n things taken k at a time.
Example:
P (n, n) = n(n-1) . . . (n-n+1) = n(n-1) . . . 3.2.1
We can represent the above formula in a more compact form by introducing a
special symbol for the product of successive integers from 1 to a certain integer n. We
use the symbol n! and we define it as follows:
1! = 1
2! = 2∙1 = 2
3! = 3∙2∙1 = 6
4! = 4∙3∙2∙1 = 24
Also, we can agree that 0! = 1. With this definition we can see that P (n, n) = n!
Now

n(n-1) . . . (n-k+1) (n-k) . . . 3∙2∙1

P(a, k) =
(n-k) . . . 3∙2∙1

so, we can also write

n!
P(n, k) =
(n-k)!

for each integer k, 1 < k < n-1.

Example 1.

7! 7∙6∙5∙4∙3∙2∙1
P (7, 3) = = = 7.6.5 = 210
(7-3)! 4∙3∙2∙1

Example 2. A basketball team has 12 players. If each man can play at any
position, how many different teams can be fielded?
 We note first that there are five different positions to be filled: center, forward 1,
forward 2, guard 1 and guard 2. Therefore, we have
P (12, 5) = 12∙11∙10∙9∙8 = 95,040
Let us tackle a more difficult problem: How many distinct permutations can be
formed from the letters in the word “Committee”
We see that the repetition of m, t, e gives rise to some difficulty. To be able to
handle this situation like the previous examples, we first distinguish the m’s, t’s and e’s
by using subscripts:
com m i t t e e
12 1212
With subscripts we get P(9, 9) = 9! = 362,882 different permutations. If we remove the
subscripts from m, we see that the 2 m’s could be rearranged among themselves
without producing a new arrangement among the six letters. Two m’s can be rearranged
in 2! Ways. Thus, for the word
com m i t t e e
12 1212
if we let Q be the number of distinguishable permutations

9!
2! Q = 9! or Q =
2!

Again, if we also lift the subscript for the e’s, then the number of P of
distinguishable permutations in the word committee is
9! 9!
2! 2! P = or P = = 45, 360
2! 2! ∙2! ∙2!
We can generalize the result in the above example as follows:
Theorem. If in a set of n objects, n, are alike, n1 are alike n2 others are alike, and
so on, the number of the distinct permentations P of the N elements is given by:

n!
P=
n 1 ! n 2 ! n3 !

Let us now proceed to problem 2. However, instead of considering the situation

involving the four runners, let us discuss a problem of the same type — this one in
geometric language — to make the explanation clearer.
Alternate problem 2. Four noncolinear points A, B, C and D are given in a
plane. How many different triangles can be drawn using these points?
 We can draw up a list of possible triangles like our list of possible placings in the
race: ABC, ACB and so on.
However, after giving some thought to it, no one realizes that the same triangle is
involved if the same three letters are used, regardless of the order of the letters.
Stripped of geometric language, the problem above simply asks for the number
of subjects of 3 letters each for set
A, B, C, D
Thus, in problems like Problem 2, we are interested in a selection of objects
considered without regard of their order.
Definition. A combination of n objects taken k at a time is subset of k elements
selected from a set of S of n elements.
The number of different combinations of n objects taken at a time is the number
of different subsets of k elements each of set S. We shall denote this number by C(n ,
k).
We can get a computing formula for C(n, k) by obtaining the formula for the
number of permutations, P(n, k) using a procedure different form our first one:
1. First, we select any k objects from the set S. Observe that we can do this in
C(n, k) ways because that is how C(n, k) has been defined.
2. Suppose we have a set of k things on hand. These can be permuted in k!
different ways.

So, all in all we have for P(n, k)

P(n, k) =
C(n, k) ∙ k!
Or
P(n, k) n!
C(n, k) = =
k! k! (n-k) !
Theorem. The number of combinations of n things taken k at a time is given by

n!
C(n, k) =
k! (n-k)!
Example 1. For the problem on the triangles we have

4!
C (4, 3) = =4
3! (4-3) !
 Example 2. In how many ways can a committee of 3 be chosen from 3 teachers
and 4 students (a) if all are equally eligible; (b) if the committee must consist of 2
teachers and 2 students?

Solution:
a) In a committee, order does not count, so we are asking for C (6, 3):

7!
C(7, 3) = = 35
3! (4-3)!
b) The 2 teachers can be selected from any of the 3 teachers, so we have C
(3,2) choices. For the student members of the committee, we have C(4, 2)
possible choices. Hence, by the fundamental principle, the number of ways of
selecting 2 teachers and 2 students for a committee of 4 is

C (3, 2) ∙ C (4, 2)
It will be useful, for later purposes, to note that C(n, k) = C (n, n-k).

4.4 The Binomial Theorem

As an application of the counting rule we developed for combinations, we shall
prove an important result in algebra. We start out with some fairly – innocent – looking
algebraic computations.
Expansions by positive, integral powers of the binomial (x + y) are of frequent
use in algebra. For example,

(x+y)² = x² + 2xy + y²
(x+y)³ = x³ + 3x²y + 3xy² + y³
(x+y)⁴ = x⁴ + 4x³y + 6x²y² + 4xy³ + y⁴

We can always obtain the expansions by multiplication for the above powers or
the next few ones, but the process becomes laborious as we consider larger powers.
We are therefore interested in a formula which can immediately provide us with
expansions given any power of the binomial. More particularly, we may be interested in
quickly obtaining a certain term in the expansion.
We begin our search by considering the following auxiliary problem. Here,
multiplying distinct binomials will provide us a clue to desired result.

(x₁ + y₁) (x₂ + y₂) (x₃ + y₃)

 = x₁ y₂ x₃ + x₂ x₃ y₁ + x₁ x₃ y₂ + x₃ y₁ y₂
+ x₁ x₂ y₃ + x₂ y₁ y₃ + x₁ y₂ y₃ + y₁ y₂ y₃

The above expansion illustrates two principles of multiplication:

(1) The terms of the expansion are obtained by selecting exactly one of two
letters for each from the factors.
(2) The complete expansion consists of the sum of such terms obtained by
performing such a selection in all possible ways.

3∙2 ∙ 4∙3∙2
C (3, 2) ∙ (4, 2) = = 18
2 2∙2

Suppose we now drop subscript and collect like terms in the above expansion,
then we obtain the expansion for (x+y) ³
Observe that since, following principle (1), we are taking a letter from each of
three factors, each term will be of degree
three in x and y.
In general, the degree of each term in (x+y)ⁿ will be n in x and y because there
are n factors.
The possible terms obtainable with this condition in mind are

x³, x²y, xy², y³

That is, the powers of x and y add up to the numbers of factors.

1. To get x³ we select no y’s (and three x’s) from the 3 factors. This can be done
in C(3, 0) = 1 way, the number of times x³ appears in the expansion or its coefficient in
the expansion.

From a remark made at the end of the previous section, we observe that the
same result is obtained by thinking of getting 3x’s and no y’s since C(3, 3) = C(3, 0).

2. To get x²y we select one y (and two x’s) from the 3 factors. This can be done
in C(3, 1) = 3 ways.

3. Etc.

Thus, we obtain for the complete expansion

(x+y)³ = C(3, 0) x³ + C(3, 1) x² y = C(3, 2) xy³ +
(3, 3) y³
 The generalized result is
The Binomial Theorem. If n is a positive integer, then

(x+y)ⁿ = C(n, O) xⁿ + C(n, 1) xⁿ⁻¹ y + C(n, 2) xⁿ⁻²

+

…+ C(n, r) xⁿ⁻ᴿ yᴿ +...+ C(n, n) yⁿ

Proof.
Since we are multiplying n factors, each term in the expansion is of degree n in a
and b will have form

aⁿ⁻ᴿ bᴿ r = 0, 1, 2, ...,n

The term aⁿ⁻ᴿ bᴿ is obtained by selecting b from r of the factors and a from the
remaining n-r factors. This can be done in C(n, r) ways so aⁿ⁻ᴿ bᴿ has coefficient C(n, r).
The complete general term is

C (n, r) aⁿ⁻ᴿ bᴿ

Example 1. What is the coefficient of a⁵ b⁷ in the expansion of (a+b)¹²

Solution. C (12, 7) = 792
Example 2. Find the fifth term in the expansion of (x² + y²)ˢ

Solution. The term C (n, r) aⁿ⁻ᴿ bᴿ= C (9, 4) (x²)⁵ (y²)⁴

= 126x¹⁰ y⁸
Example 3. A coin is flipped seven times. What is the total number of possible
outcomes?

Solution. Any easy solution is provided by the fundamental principle.

 2 · 2 . . . 2 = 2⁷ = 128
7

However, we may also solve the problem by considering the expansion of

(h+1)⁷. For example, the expression h⁴ + t³ could represent “4 heads, 3 tails”. The
number of ways 4 heads and 3 tails can be obtained is merely the coefficient of h⁴ + t³
which is C (7, 3) = 35.

The complete result is given by

C (7, 0) + C (7, 1) + C (7, 2) + C (7, 3) + . . . + C(7, 7)
= 1 + 7 + 21 + 35 + +
= 128
CHAPTER 4
EXERCISES:
1) Determine whether each of the following is true or false:
a) 15! = 15 · 14 · 13!
b) 5! · 3! = 15!
c) 4! + 2! = 6!
d) 19!
18! =
19

e) 8!
4! =
2!
2) Determine whether each of the following is true or false:
1 1
a) + = 1
3! 3!

16!
b) = 16.15
14!

8!
c) = 56
5! 3!

d) 6! + 0! = 36

6!
e) =1
 2! 3!
3) If 15 cars are entered in a car show, in how many different ways will the judges
award a first prize, a second prize?

4) In how many ways can the 50 students choose among themselves a president, a
vice-president, a secretary and a treasurer?
5) Find the number of ways in which five or nine contestants can be ranked first,
second, third, fourth and fifth according to their heights.
6) Find the number of permutations of zero objects selected from a set of 24
objects.
7) How many different permutations are there of the letters in each of the following
words?
a) Bookkeeper
b) Mississippi
c) Statistics
d) Syzygy
e) Gorgeous
8) A subcommittee of three representatives is to be selected from five men and
three female members of the house ways and means committee. In how many
ways can the subcommittee be selected so that:
a) It consists of two men and one woman?
b) Each sex is represented?
c) At least one man is in the subcommittee?
d) At least one woman is a member of the subcommittee?
9) In how many ways can a committee of four be chosen from five married couple if:
a) All are equally eligible?
b) The committee must consist of three women and one man?
c) A husband and a wife cannot serve together?
10)How many ways can six-person volleyball teams be made from a group of seven
men and three women if:
a) There is no sex discrimination?
b) The team must contain at least two women?
11)How many seven-digit phone numbers are possible if the first three digits must
be 143?
12)A statistic department consists of five faculty members, namely: A, B, C, D and E
all of whom would like to attend the national conference. Unfortunately, there is
enough money available for only three to go. How many different ways are there
to select those three?