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Activity # 6

This document contains a quiz with questions about probabilities based on videos about introduction to probabilities. It has two parts with multiple choice and short answer questions testing concepts like probability rules, tree diagrams, complementary events, random phenomena, empirical probabilities, and the law of large numbers. It also asks students to identify concepts they found ambiguous and explain their understanding.

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40 views5 pages

Activity # 6

This document contains a quiz with questions about probabilities based on videos about introduction to probabilities. It has two parts with multiple choice and short answer questions testing concepts like probability rules, tree diagrams, complementary events, random phenomena, empirical probabilities, and the law of large numbers. It also asks students to identify concepts they found ambiguous and explain their understanding.

Uploaded by

ian92193
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Learner Centered Activity 6

Names: Hernandez, John Jethro March 1, 2021


Moron, Jenela
Raymundo, Flor Angeline

Quiz for Introduction to Probabilities Part 1

Direction: Watch the video Introduction to Probabilities Part 1. Then answer this quiz.
You may use MS Word to accomplish this activity.

I. Modified True or False. Write True if the statement is true, otherwise, modify the underlined
word or phrase to make the statement true. Write your answer on the space that you can find for
every item.

1. ​Chance behavior​ is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in
the long run.​TRUE

2. In state lottery (or lotto), the operator of lotto (Pagcor) ​can lose​ millions of pesos if someone
wins the jackpot even if millions of tickets were sold at Php20/ticket. ​FALSE - CAN MAKE

3. Empirical probabilities are found through ​theorizing or calculation​. ​FALSE- OBSERVATION

4. The number of people who attend a church in your community can ​always​ be obtained
through observation. ​TRUE

5. A ​random phenomenon​ is one whose individual outcomes are uncertain but there is
nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. ​TRUE

6. The probability of an outcome is the ​proportion​ of times it would occur in a very long series of
independent repetitions. ​TRUE

7. The set of all possible outcomes of a random phenomenon is called the ​event​.
FALSE-SAMPLE SPACE

8. The ​probability of an event​ is a numerical value between 0 and 1. ​TRUE

9. A ​random phenomenon​, is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon consisting


of the sample space and a way of assigning probabilities to events. ​FALSE- PROBABILITY
MODEL

10. If the dice are fair or balanced, the probability of getting a sum of 7 is ​1/6​. ​FALSE 6/36
​Quiz for Introduction to Probabilities Part 2 and Part 3

Direction: Watch the video Introduction to Probabilities Part 2 and Part 3. Then answer
this quiz. You may use MS Word to accomplish this activity.

1. Using the tree diagram and the technique demonstrated in the video, find the probability of
failing the AP test. Show necessary solution. (5 points)

Tree Diagram

Solution:

P(failing) = (.4) (.1) + (.6) (.7)

P(failing) = .4 + .42

P(failing) = .46

By using the tree diagram, and technique demonstrated in the video, we found out that
the probability of failing the AP Test is .46.
2. Evaluate again the probability of failing in the AP test that you did in #1 above, using a
different technique or solution. Explain your answer in two sentences.
(5 points)

Solution:

Let P(A) = Probability of passing the AP test P(A)= .56

​
P(Ac​ )= Probability of not passing/failing the AP test P(Ac​ ​) = ?

P(Ac​ )​ = 1 - P (A)

=1 - .54

= .46

Using the 4th probability rule which is P(A​c​)= 1 - P (A), we were able to evaluate the
probability of FAILING the AP test. Given that A (passing) and Ac​ ​ (failing) together make
up all possible outcomes, and since rule 2 tells us that the sum of the probabilities of all
possible outcomes is 1, the probability of failing the AP test is 1 minus the Probability of
passing which is .54.

3. State the 5 probability rules given in the video.


(5 points)

1. P(A) is between 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.


● The probability of an event, which informs us of the likelihood of it occurring,
can range anywhere from 0 (indicating that the event will never occur) to 1
(indicating that the event is certain).
2. If S is the sample space, P(S) = 1
● The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1.
3. P (AUB)​ ​ = P(A) + P(B)
● If A&B are disjoint (mutually exclusive) if there have no outcomes in common
and so can never occur simultaneously. (P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)
● ** Disjoint events are dependent events. However, dependent events are not
automatically disjoin​t.
4. The complement of event A, is that A does not occur (P(AC)=I-P(A)
5. If A&B are independent, them P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)
*​*Depending on what information is given, this can be a mathematical check
for independence
4. State four (4) concepts or examples given in the video that are still ambiguous to you. Explain
your difficulty with each concept or example in at most two sentences.
(1o points)

Regarding the concept of Sampling and Replacement; It was mentioned that if the population is
over 10 times the size of the sample it is therefore close enough to be independent- We find it
ambiguous since it is not clear whether it can be applied in all types of samples other than
lottery tickets. Why is it always 10 times the population sample? How it affects the independent
variable?

Random phenomenon where one whose individual outcomes are uncertain but there is
nonetheless or regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. We find it
ambiguous how large the sample must be in terms of a random sampling of the population, how
concrete this concept is to support the study. In a marketing survey where let say we will get
only 4 users of soap (to answer yes or no) out of the general population, how can it be
significant in terms of accuracy and reliability?

Empirical Probabilities. Are found through observation not a theory of calculation. Can mere
observation be a basis for academic studies? Does it have standard guidelines to use in order
to support complex research dealing with tangible and intangible variables?

Law of Large numbers. Is it safe to say that the more numbers you have in data, the more
accurate your statistic is?
Note: These activities should be done by group and submitted in Canvas. You should
also submit via email but I will just use it as a backup submission. When you submit via
email, make sure that you take a screenshot of your submission in Canvas.

Deadline of submission: March 1, 10:00 PM. I will be strict with the deadline this time so
be mindful of the deadline. There will be corresponding deduction for late submission.

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