2010 H2 Mathematics Prelim Exam

Binomial and Poisson Distributions

S/No Answers(includes comments and graph)
1 AJC (i) 0.295 (ii) 0.0311 (iii) 0.328 (iv) 0.989
2 ACJC Breakages occur randomly or
Breakages occur independently or
Mean number of breakages is a constant
(i) 22, (ii) T Po(25.9), 0.578
3 ACJC (i) 0.00330, (ii) 91
4 CJC (i) 0.385 (ii) 0.704 (iii) 0.983 (iv) Least n = 16
5 DH (i) 0.125 (3 s.f.) (iii) 0.0944 (3 s.f.) (iv) 0.191 (3 s.f.)
6 HCI (i) The condition is that the rate of call-ins received by the centre is constant
throughout a month / the call-in occurs randomly /
The call-ins occur in a month are independent of one another
(ii) 0.810 Minimum value of n is 28
7 IJC 0.0115 (3 s.f.); 0.781 (3 s.f.); 107 0.0130 (3 s.f.)
8 JJC (i) 0.961 (ii) 0.657 (iii) 0.0182
9 MI 0.205, 0.541, 0.916
10 MJC (i) 0.915 (ii) 0.583 (iii) 0.0206
11 NJC (ii) 0.0503
(iii)
(1)There are two mutually exclusive outcomes – either there are at least 13
arrivals in each two-hour period or there isn’t.
(2)The probability of having at least 13 arrivals for each two hour period remains
constant for each of the 60 two-hour periods.
(3)There is a fixed number of 60 two-hour periods independently selected under
consideration.

(iv) 0.00609
12 NYJC (i) 0.0201 , (ii) 0.101 , (iv) least n=58
13 NYJC (i) 0.76006, (ii) 0.00652
(iii) It is not suitable since the weather conditions may have changed over
such a long time period and the model may no longer be applicable.
14 PJC (ii) 0.806 (iii) n = 12
15 RJC (i) The average number of incoming calls received per hour is constant throughout the
opening hours of the mall.
OR
The probability of 2 or more incoming calls received in a very short interval of time is
negligible.
(ii) 0.364 (iii) 0.115 (iv) 0.6551 (v) 0.0426
16 RVH 0.150
17 RVH (i) 0.483 (ii) 0.0381 (iii) 0.0000587
18 SAJC (a) 0.294
(b)(i) 80
(ii) 20. The no. of Buzzland spies is independent of the no. of Dodoland spies.
19 SRJC 1 pair or 2 pairs of twins (ii) 0.949 (iii) 0.213 (iii) 11 (iv) 0.159
20 TPJC (ii) Y ~ B(500,0.0072)
P (Y ≤ 6) = 0.927 approx.
(iii) 0.756
21 TJC (a) 63 (b)(i) 0.647 (ii) 0.564
(c) Method 1: (CLT) 0.493
Method 2: (Binomial Distribution) 0.513
22 VJC 0.772, 0.7556
23 YJC 0.734; 10; 0.112
24 YJC (i) 0.0487 (ii) 0.703

1 AJC/II/10 [Challenging]

At a newly opened shop, the number of orders for herbal chicken soup received in a randomly
chosen 30-minute interval follows a Poisson distribution with mean 2.3. The shop is opened for
8 hours daily, from 11 am to 7 pm. (Assume that the orders received are independent.)
(i) Find the probability that there are at least 6, but less than 10 orders received in a
randomly chosen one-hour period. [2]
(ii) Find the probability that in 100 randomly chosen one-hour periods, the shop receives an
average of more than 5 orders in a one-hour period. [2]
(iii) The shop owner incurs a fixed operating cost of $250 per day. The cost price and selling
price of a bowl of herbal chicken soup are $8 and $20 respectively. By using a suitable
approximation, find the probability that he makes a profit of at least 40% of his total
cost incurred per day. [4]
(iv) After operating the shop for half a year, the shop owner wishes to assess if he should
continue with the business. He decides to observe the lunch time crowd from 12 pm to 2
pm for 25 days selected at random. If there are less than 14 days with more than 10
orders during the lunch period, he will close down the shop. Comment on whether he
should close down the shop. [3]
Explain whether the Poisson distribution is a good model for the number of orders for herbal
chicken soup in a day. [1]

2 ACJC/II/11 [A-level]

In a hotel, large number of cups and saucers are washed each day. The number of cups that are
broken each day while washing averages 2.1. State in context, a condition under which a
Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model. [1]
Assume that the number of broken cups and saucers follow a Poisson distribution.
 (i) Show that on any randomly chosen day, the probability that at least 3 cups are broken is
0.350 correct to 3 significant figures. [1]
The probability that there will be at least two days in n days with at least 3 broken cups
is more than 0.999. Find the least value of n. [3]
(ii) The number of saucers broken each day averages 1.6, independently of the number of
cups broken. The total number of cups broken and saucers broken during a week of 7
days is denoted by T. State a possible model for the distribution of T. [2]
A random sample of 100 weeks is chosen. Using a suitable approximation, find the
probability that the average weekly total number of broken cups and saucers does not
exceed 26. [3]

ACJC/II/12 [A-level]

Fish are bred in large batches and allowed to grow until they are caught at random for sale. When
caught, only 20% of the fish measure less than 8 cm long.
(i) What is the probability that the 10th fish caught is the sixth fish that is less than 8 cm long?
[2]
(ii) A large number, n, of fish are caught and the probability of there being 10 or fewer fish in the
catch which measures less than 8 cm long is at most 0.0227 .
Using a suitable approximation, derive the approximate inequality
10.5 − 0.2n ≤ −0.8 n . [4]
Hence find the least possible number of fish to be caught. [2]

4 CJC/II/7 [Basic]

The occurrences of floods per year at a particular residential area in Singapore follow a Poisson
distribution with mean 4.

(i) Find the probability that in 4 months, this particular residential area is flooded at least
twice. [2]

(ii) A random sample of 12 periods of 4 months is taken. Find the probability that in at most 5
of these 12 periods, this particular residential area is flooded at least twice. [2]

(iii) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that in 5 years, this particular
residential area is flooded at least 11 times. [4]

(iv) In a long term study of the flooding problem in this particular residential area, it is
proposed that the residential area be observed for 40 years. The probability that in at least n
years out of these 40 years, this residential area is flooded at most thrice each year is found
to be less than 0.8. Using a suitable approximation, find the least value of n.
[4]
5 DHS/II/10 [A-level]

In a randomly chosen week, the numbers of unsolicited text messages and phone calls received by a
mobile line subscriber follow independent Poisson distributions with means 5 and 3 respectively.
(i) Find the probability that the subscriber receives exactly 2 unsolicited text messages in a day.
[2]
(ii) Show the probability that the subscriber receives at most 10 unsolicited text messages or phone
calls in a week is 0.816. [2]

(iii) The subscriber decides to terminate his mobile line subscription if, in the next 10 weeks, there
are more than 3 weeks where he receives more than 10 unsolicited text messages or phone calls
in a week. Find the probability that he terminates his mobile line subscription. [3]

(iv) Another subscriber intends to terminate her subscription if she receives a total of 20 or more
unsolicited text messages or phone calls in the next 2 weeks. By using a suitable approximation,
calculate the probability that she terminates her subscription. [4]

6 HCI/II/11 [Challenging]

At the counselling centre CareforSociety, the average number of call-ins received in a month regarding
alcohol abuse problem is denoted by λ . The probability of receiving at most 9 such calls in a week is
0.701. Assuming that there are 4 weeks in a month,

(i) show that the value of λ is 32.5, correct to 3 significant figures. State a condition under which
the distribution used is valid. [3]

(ii) by using a suitable approximation, find the probability that in a month, the number of call-ins
received is more than 25 but not more than 40. [4]

The centre also has 70 support groups, each consisting of n people, which help one another to deal with
alcohol abuse problems. It is known that, on average, 3 in 20 people in such support groups will be
successful in correcting their alcohol abuse problem. Given that in the 70 support groups, the
probability of having an average of at least 4 people per group successfully correcting their alcohol
abuse problem is more than 0.7, determine the minimum value of n. [4]

7 IJC/II/12 [A-level]

A roller-coaster ride has a safety system to detect faults on the track.

State a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model for the
number of faults detected on the track on a randomly chosen day. [1]

Faults on the track are detected at an average rate of 0.16 per day. Find the probability that on a
randomly chosen day, the number of faults detected on the track is between 2 and 6 inclusive. [2]
Find the probability that in a randomly chosen period of 20 days, there are not more than 4 faults
detected on the track. [2]

There is a probability of at least 0.15 that the mean number of faults detected on the track per day over
a randomly chosen long period of n days is at least 0.2. Find the greatest value of n. [3]

There is also a separate safety system to detect faults on the roller-coaster train itself. Faults are
detected by this system at an average rate of 0.05 per day, independently of the faults detected on the
track.
Find the probability that in a randomly chosen period of 20 days, the number of faults detected on the
track is at most 1 given that the total number of faults detected is 5. [4]

8 JJC/II/7 [Basic]

The number of guitars sold by a music shop per day follows a Poisson distribution with mean λ . It is
known that on 2 in 7 days, there are no guitars sold. Show that λ = 1.253 , correct to 3 decimal places.
[2]
(i) Calculate the probability that less than 4 guitars are sold in a day. [2]
(ii) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that, in a random sample of 100 days, there
will be more than 95 days in which less than 4 guitars are sold per day. [4]
(iii) Calculate the probability that in a period of 90 days, the mean number of guitars sold per day is
more than 1.5. [3]

9 MI/II/10 [Basic]

There is an outbreak of an infection caused by a new strain of a virus in City X. The probability, p, of a
randomly chosen person being infected is 0.2. Find the probability that, in a random sample of 12
people chosen from City X, at least 4 are infected. [3]
After a certain time, the virus mutates and the value of p increases to 0.6. By using a suitable
approximation, find the probability that, in a random sample of 100 people, there are at least 60 but not
more than 80 who are infected. [4]

The virus then mutates to a much more deadly form and the value of p is now 0.97. By using a suitable
approximation, find the probability that, in a random sample of 100 people, at most 5 are not infected

[3]
10 MJC/II/10 [A-level]

On average, a hospital and a police station receive 36 and 15 calls respectively in a three-week period.
Calls are received at random times. The number of calls received by the hospital may be assumed to be
independent of the number of calls received by the police station.
(i) Find the probability that the hospital and the police station receive a total of more than 11 calls
in a randomly chosen week. [3]

(ii) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that out of 50 randomly chosen weeks, the
number of weeks in which the hospital and police station receive a total of more than 11 calls is
greater than 45. [4]

(iii) A nurse records the number of calls received by the hospital per week for 100 randomly chosen
weeks. She then calculates the average number of calls received per week based on her data.
Another nurse independently goes through the same procedure. Find the probability that the
sum of the two averages obtained by the nurses is at most 23. [3]

11 NJC/II/10 [A-level]
Suppose that the arrival and departure of aircrafts at a domestic airport follow two independent Poisson
distributions. In a one-hour period, it is expected that there are 4 arrivals and 3 departures.
(i) Show that the probability that there are at least 13 arrivals in a two-hour period is 0.0638,
correct to 3 significant figures. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that, in a randomly selected one-hour period, there are less than 2
departures given that the airport handles a total of exactly 9 arrivals and departures. [3]
A study of the domestic airport arrivals for 60 randomly selected two-hour periods is being conducted
to see if there are at least 13 arrivals for each two-hour period.
(iii) Giving two reasons, in this context, explain why the binomial distribution is a suitable model
for the study of the domestic airport arrivals. [2]
(iv) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that there are at most 50 two-hour periods
with less than 13 arrivals each, explaining clearly why the approximation is appropriate. [3]

12 NYJC/II/9 [A-level]

A vehicle rental company has 7 cars and 4 vans available for rental per day. It is known that the request
for cars has a mean of 4 per day; and independently, the request for vans has a mean of 2 per day.
(i) Find the probability that the number of request for a vehicle exceeds 11 on a particular day.[2]
(ii) Find the probability that some requests for a vehicle have to be refused on a particular day. [2]
(iii) Explain why the value found in (ii) is larger than the value found in (i). [1]
(iv) Using a suitable approximation, find the least number of days such that the average number of
requests for vehicles exceeding 7 is less than 0.001. [3]

13 NYJC/II/11 [A-level]

On the tropical island of Stabletree, records show that the number of floods occurring each month may
be modelled using a Poisson distribution with mean 2. A “bad” month is a month where there are at
least 4 floods occurring, and a “bad” year is one where there are more than 2 bad months in the year.
Regarding a month as a twelfth part of a year, and assuming independence of flood occurrences,
(i) show that the probability that there are at most 2 bad months in a year is 0.760. [3]
(ii) use a suitable approximation to find the probability that out of fifty years, there are less than 5
bad years. [4]
(iii) Comment on whether it is suitable to use the model to estimate the probability that the year
2060 (which is 50 years from now) will be a bad year. [1]

14 PJC/II/9 [A-level]

Defective spots are found randomly on a roll of ribbon. On average, 5 defective spots are found per
10 m of ribbon. The roll of ribbon is cut into short ribbons, each of length 1 m. A short ribbon is not
discarded if it contains at most 1 defective spot.

(i) State a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model and
find the percentage of short ribbons that do not need to be discarded. [3]

(ii) Given 52 randomly chosen short ribbons, find an approximate probability that there are more
than forty-five short ribbons that do not need to be discarded. [4]

(iii) Determine the maximum number of short ribbons required for which the probability of at least
3 short ribbons discarded does not exceed 0.1. [2]

15 RJC/II/10 [A-level]

Incoming telephone calls to the management office of a shopping mall are received randomly and
independently, at an average rate of 6.75 per hour. The mall (including its management office) is open
from 10 am to 10 pm.
(i) State, in the context of the question, a condition required for a Poisson distribution to be a
suitable model for the number of incoming calls from 10 am to 10 pm. [1]
Assume that the condition in (i) is satisfied.

(ii) Find the probability of receiving no fewer than 8 calls in a particular hour. [2]
(iii) In 4 non-overlapping one-hour periods, find the probability of receiving at most 6 calls in a
one-hour period, exactly 7 calls in another one-hour period, and no fewer than 8 calls in each of
the 2 remaining one-hour periods. [3]

(iv) The number of incoming calls from 10 am to 10 pm, Y , has mean μ and standard deviation σ .
Use a suitable approximation to find P ( μ − σ < Y < μ + σ ) , giving your answer correct to 4
decimal places. [4]

(v) A day is considered busy if there are more than 90 incoming calls received from
10 am to 10 pm. Find the probability that the 3rd busy day in a month occurs on the 15th day of
the month. [3]

16 RVH/II/6 [Basic]
Research has shown that 5 out of 8 students of a particular school make use of the school’s e-learning
portal. Three random samples of 40 students are chosen. Using a suitable approximation, find the
probability that more than 80 students make use of the school’s e-learning portal. [3]

17 RVH/II/12 [A-level]
The two most common types of disciplinary offences in a particular boy school is keeping long hair
and failure to wear the school badge. The mean number of disciplinary offences recorded per day
involving long hair is 1.12. Assuming that each school week consists of five school days, the mean
number of disciplinary offences recorded per school week involving failure to wear the school badge is
4.2. The number of cases for each disciplinary offence is assumed to have an independent Poisson
distribution.
(i) Find the probability that at most 9 cases of disciplinary offence are recorded in a given school
week. [3]

(ii) In a school week in which there are more than 7 cases of disciplinary offence involving long
hair, find the probability that at most 9 cases of disciplinary offence are recorded. [3]

(iii) Calculate the probability that on a Thursday in a particular school week, it is the third day in the
school week in which the discipline master caught at least 4 students having long hair in a day.
(You may assume that Monday is the first day of school for a school week.) [3]

(iv) Explain why the Poisson distribution may not be a good model for the number of disciplinary
cases involving long hair, in a school year. [1]
 18 SAJC/II/8 [Challenging]

(a) A secret source claims that 0.3% of the residents in the suburbs of Zozoland are spies
from Buzzland. If the claim were true, what is the probability, using a suitable
approximation, that there are at least five spies living in a Zozoland suburb of 1200
residents? [3]

(b) Another independent source (assumed to be reliable) claims that there is an average of
1.3 Buzzland spies and 0.4 Dodoland spies in a typical Zozoland city.

(i) The investigation bureau will only do extensive combing of a city where there are
more than five spies present. Given that there are 10,000 Zozoland cities,
estimate the number of cities that will be under investigation. [3]

(ii) The bureau investigated a certain number of cities and caught 23 Buzzland spies
and 11 Dodoland spies. Find the most likely number of cities that had been
investigated, stating an assumption needed for your calculation in the context of
the question. [4]

19 SRJC/II/11 [A-level]
In a certain country, it is found that on average the number of pairs of twins born weekly are 2.

(i) Find the most probable number(s) of pairs of twins that are to be born weekly. [1]

(ii) Find the probability of having at most 7 pairs of twins to be born in a two-week period. [2]

(iii) Assuming there are 26 two-week periods in a year, estimate the probability that there are less
than 73 two-week periods with at most 7 pairs of twins born in 3 years. [3]

(iv) Using a suitable approximation, find the least number of consecutive weeks such that the
probability of having at most 20 pairs of twins born falls below half. You may assume that the
number of weeks is more than 5. [3]

(v) Find the probability that the mean number of pairs of twins born in 50 weeks is less than 1.8.
[2]

20 TPJC/II/10 [A-level]
In the production of plastic sheets, scratches occur at random and independently at an average of λ
scratches per plastic sheet.

(i) Show that, if λ is sufficiently small, the probability that a plastic sheet has at least 2 scratches
λ2
.
is approximately [2]
2
500 plastic sheets produced by manufacturer A, for which the value of λ is 0.12, are randomly selected
and inspected for quality control. A plastic sheet will be rejected if it has at least 2 scratches. Let Y
denote the number of plastic sheets rejected.
20 TPJC/II/10 continue…

(ii) State the exact distribution of Y. Find, by using a suitable approximation, the probability that at
most 6 plastic sheets are rejected. [4]

Another manufacturer B independently produces plastic sheets with an average of 0.5 scratches per
plastic sheet. 25 plastic sheets from manufacturer A and 20 plastic sheets from manufacturer B are
randomly selected.

(iii) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that there are a total of at least 11 scratches
found in the 45 plastic sheets selected. [4]

21 TJC/II/10 [A-level]
At a stall in a fun-fair, games of chance are played. The probability that a participant wins a prize
in each game is 0.05.

(a) If the stall holder wants the probability of more than 5 prizes to be won on a particular day to
be less than 0.1, find the largest number of games that can be played on that day. [3]

(b) On another day, N games are played. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability
that prizes are won in at most 5% of the games if :
(i) N = 60, [3]
(ii) N = 200. [3]

(c) The stall is open for 70 days and on each day, 60 games are played. Find the probability that
the average number of prizes won each day is between 2.5 and 3 inclusive. [4]

22 VJC/II/9 [Challenging]
The number of arrivals per minute at a fast food drive-through outlet has a Poisson distribution with
mean λ . On a weekend evening, λ = 0.8 . Find the probability that in a 10-minute interval, there will
be at most 10 arrivals given that there are more than 5 arrivals. [3]

In view of space constraints, the management wants to control the number of arrivals during the peak
period which spans over a 30-minute interval. By using a normal distribution to approximate the
Poisson distribution, find, to 4 decimal places, the largest value of λ such that the probability of having
more than 30 arrivals during the peak period is less than 0.05. [5]
22 YJC/II/11 [A-level]

A multiple choice test consists of 20 questions, each with four possible answers, of which
only one is correct. If a student randomly chooses the answer to each question, find the
probability of getting at least four but less than nine correct answers. [2]
Suppose that each correct answer is awarded five marks and each incorrect answer carries a
penalty of one mark, what is the expected score obtained by a student? [2]
50 students took the test. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that the mean
score is more than 12 marks. [3]

23 YJC/II/12 [A-level]

At a post office, the number of customers purchasing postal products in a half-hour period
during peak hours follows a Poisson distribution with mean 5. During the off- peak period,
the number of customers purchasing postal products in a two-hour period is an independent
Poisson distribution with mean 10. The peak period for the post office is from 12 pm to 1.30
pm and the post office is open from 8 am to 5 pm.
(i) Find the probability that there are more than 15 customers from 12.30 pm to
1.30 pm. [2]
(ii) Using suitable approximations, find the probability that the total number of customers
during off-peak hours is less than thrice the total number of customers during peak
hours on a particular day. [5]