INTRODUCTION

TO PROBABILITY
A game is played with the following cards
Definition of Terms
probability experiment
mutually exclusive
event
simple
event
event
not mutually exclusive
event
sample
space
Probability defined
It is a measure of the likelihood of a random phenomenon or chance behavior.

The extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of favorable
cases to the whole number of cases possible.

It is a branch of Mathematics that deals with calculating the likelihood or chance

that something will happen, or how likely it is that some event will happen.

It is measured with a number (quantitatively) like 10% chance that it will rain today or you
can use words (qualitatively) like impossible, unlikely, possible, likely and certain.

the study of randomness and uncertainty. In the early days, probability was associated
with games of chance (gambling).
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 Definitions
Probability is the mathematics of chance.

It tells us the relative frequency with which we can expect an event

to occur

The greater the probability the more

likely the event will occur.

It can be written as a fraction, decimal, percent, or ratio.

 Definitions
1 Certain

Value is between 0 and 1.

Sum of the probabilities of all events

.5 50/50
is 1.

0 Impossible
 Simple Game Involving Probability

Game: A fair die is rolled. If the result is 2, 3, or

4, you win 100 pesos; if it is 5, you win 200
pesos; but if it is 1 or 6, you lose 300 pesos.

Should you play this game?

 What is
EXPERIMENT?

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In probability, an EXPERIMENT is any
process that can be repeated in which
the results are uncertain.
It has a well-defined set of possible
outcomes.

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Random Experiment

Examples
• Tossing a coin once or several times
• Picking a card or cards from a deck
• Measuring temperature of patients
• Rolling a die or a pair of dice
• etc.

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The SAMPLE SPACE, denoted by S, of a
probability experiment is the collection of
all possible simple events.
In other words, the sample space is a list
of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.

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 Definitions
A probability experiment is an action through which specific results
(counts, measurements, or responses) are obtained.

The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is an outcome.

The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment is the sample

space, denoted as S.
e.g. All 6 faces of a die: S = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
 An EVENT is any collection of
outcomes from a probability experiment.
An event may consist of one or more
simple events. Events are denoted
using capital letters such as E.

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 A SIMPLE EVENT is any single outcome
from a probability experiment. Each simple
event is denoted ei.

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A COMPOUND EVENT is any event
containing two or more simple events

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 Each possible result of an experiment is
referred to as sample outcome/outcome.

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The set of all possible outcomes is called?

sample space

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The subset of a sample space S of an
experiment is called?

Event

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Illustration of Sample Spaces and Events
Sample Space
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes.

Event
Simple Events An event is any collection
The individual outcomes are called simple events. of one or more simple events
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Identify the sample space S in the following
experiments.
1. Roll a die and observe the number that comes up.
2. Toss a coin repeatedly until the first head appears.
3. Turn on a lightbulb and measure its life span.
4. Flip two coins and observe the sequence of heads and
tails.

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 A sample space that has a finite or
countably infinite of outcomes is said to be
discrete.
On the other hand, a sample space with an
uncountably infinite number of outcomes is
said to be continuous.

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 Definitions

An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the

sample space.

Events are often represented by uppercase letters, such as A, B, or

C.

Notation: The probability that event E will occur is written P(E) and
is read “the probability of event E.”
 Definitions
• The Probability of an Event, E:

Number of Event Outcomes

P(E) =
Total Number of Possible Outcomes in S

Consider a pair of Dice

• Each of the Outcomes in the Sample Space are random
and equally likely to occur.
2 1
e.g. P( ) = =
36 18
(There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4)
 Complimentary Events
The complement of event E is the set of all outcomes in a sample
space that are not included in event E.

The complement of event E is denoted by E  or E

0  P( E )  1
Properties of Probability: P( E ) + P( E ) = 1
P( E ) = 1 − P( E )
P( E ) = 1 − P( E )
 Mutually and Not Mutually Exclusive
Events & Addition Rule

Mutually Exclusive—two events are mutually exclusive if they

CANNOT occur at the same time.
NOT Mutually Exclusive—two events that CAN occur at the same
time.
Addition Rule of Probability—a way to find the probability that
either or both of two events occurs.
The Addition Rule of Probability
This Rule works with the concept of Mutually
Exclusive/NOT Mutually Exclusive.
The relationship is crucial/complicated!
 RECALL: Compound Event: any event containing two or more simple events

 KEY WORD: OR
 In mathematics, we use an “inclusive” or
 Either one or the other or BOTH
 Example: If I ask for a bologna or cheese sandwich, you could give me a sandwich with
 Just bologna
 Just cheese
 Bologna and cheese
To determine the probability of a compound event
involving OR, we must first determine if the two
events are mutually exclusive.
 Mutually Exclusive
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e. They have no
outcomes in common
Event A and B
Mutually Exclusive

Event Event
A B Event A Event B

NOT Mutually Exclusive

Venn Diagrams
Mutually
Exclusive NO COMMON
OUTCOMES

NOT
Mutually THE COMMON

Exclusive OUTCOME
What are mutually exclusive events?
Events are mutually exclusive if they cannot
happen at the same time.
For example, when you toss a single coin either it will land on heads or it will land
on tails. There are two mutually exclusive outcomes.
Outcome A: Head
Outcome B: Tail

When you roll a die either it will land on an odd number or it will land on an even
number. There are two mutually exclusive outcomes.
Outcome A: An odd number
Outcome B: An even number
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that have no basic outcomes in common, or
equivalently, their intersection is the empty set.

Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The probability of the union of two
mutually exclusive events A and B is
P ( A  B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ).

A B

S
 There are 52 standard deck of cards
13 clubs

13 spades

13 hearts

13 diamonds
Practice
Practice
Circle which of the following are mutually
exclusive.
1. Red card and a Heart
2. Ace and Diamond
3. Club and Spade
4. Number 2-10 and Black
Identify if its Mutually Exclusive (ME) or Not Mutually
Exclusive (NME)
 At a large political gathering, you select a person at random to
determine if the person is a Republican or female NME
 Flip a coin to determine if you get a head or tail ME
 Roll a die to determine if you get a 4 or 6 ME
 Roll a die to determine if you get 3 or an odd number NME
 Draw a card from a standard deck to determine if you get a queen
and a heart NME
 Draw a card from a standard deck to determine if you get a black
card or a diamond ME
Addition Rules (OR)
Events are Mutually Events are NOT Mutually
Exclusive Exclusive

P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

 Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

• Add probabilities of individual events

• Drawing ace of spades or king of hearts
– Probability of ace of spades is 1/52
– Probability of king of hearts is 1/52

– Probability of either ace of spades or king of hearts is 2/52

 Addition Rule for Not Mutually Exclusive
Events
• Add probabilities of individual events and subtract
probabilities of outcomes common to both events

Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The probability of the union of two
not mutually exclusive events A and B is

P ( A  B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ).- P (A ∩ B)
Probability for Not Mutually Exclusive Events

Drawing a spade or drawing an ace

– Probability of drawing a spade: 13 outcomes, so 13/52 = 1/4
– Probability of drawing an ace: 4 outcomes, so 4/52 = 1/13
– Ace of spades is common to both events, probability is 1/52

– So probability of drawing a spade or an ace is

13/52 + 4/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13
Can a Jack and a 7 happen at the
same time on the same card?
ANSWER: NO, therefore it is Mutally Exclusive
𝑷(𝑨𝒐𝒓𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)
𝑷 𝑱𝒂𝒄𝒌 𝒐𝒓 𝟕 = 𝑷 𝑱𝒂𝒄𝒌 + 𝑷 𝟕

𝟒 𝟒
= +
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐
𝟖
=
𝟓𝟐
𝟐
=
𝟏𝟑
 Can a Heart and an Ace happen
at the same time on the same card?
ANSWER: YES, therefore it is NOT Mutally Exclusive
𝑷 𝑨𝒐𝒓𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑷(𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉)

Why is this necessary?

 𝑷 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒕 𝒐𝒓 𝑨𝒄𝒆 =
𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑷(𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉)

We have to subtract
ONE of them so
there isn’t a
Do you see how there are TWO Ace’s DOUBLE.
of Hearts?
Can a Heart and an Ace happen
at the same time on the same card?

𝑷 𝑨𝒐𝒓𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑷(𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉)
𝑷 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒕 𝒐𝒓 𝑨𝒄𝒆 = 𝑷 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒕 + 𝑷 𝑨𝒄𝒆 − 𝑷( 𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇
𝒉𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒔)

𝟏𝟑 𝟒 𝟏
= + −
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐

𝟏𝟔
=
𝟓𝟐
𝟒
=
𝟏𝟑
Foldable

(ME)→

(NOT)→
Exercise 7.1 A.
Exercise 7.1 B.
Continuation

(ME)? or (NOT)?

(ME)? or (NOT)?
Continuation

(ME)? or (NOT)?

(ME)? or (NOT)?
Objectives
At the end of the lesson, the learners should be
able to:

1. differentiate dependent and independent

events;

2. determine whether given events are

dependent or independent and

3. solve for the probability of dependent and

independent.
 Situation 1

Consider a box that contains 14 red balls, 12

blue balls, and 9 green balls. A ball is drawn
at random and the color is noted and then
put back inside the box. Then, another ball is
drawn at random. Find the probability that:
a) Both are blue.
b) The first is red and the second is green.
 Situation 2

Consider a box that contains 14 red

balls, 12 blue balls, and 9 green balls.
Suppose that two balls are drawn one
after the other without putting back the
first ball. Find the probability that:
a)The first is red and the second is blue
b)Both balls are green.
Independent and
Dependent Events
 Situation 1 -
Independent Events

Two events are independent if the

outcome of one event does not
affect the outcome of the other
event.
Example
When a coin is tossed and a die is
rolled, the event that a coin shows
up head and the event that a die
shows up a 5 are independent
events.
 If two events, A and B, are independent,
then the probability of both events
occurring is the product of the probability
of A and the probability of B.

𝑷 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 = 𝑷(𝑨) ∙ 𝑷(𝑩)

 Situation 2
Dependent Events

When the outcome of one

event affects the outcome of
another event, they are
dependent events.
Example
A box contains 7 white marbles and
7 red marbles. What is the probability
of drawing 2 white marbles and 1 red
marble in succession without
replacement?
 If two events, A and B, are dependent,
then the probability of both events
occurring is the product of the
probability of A and the probability of B
after A occurs.

𝑷 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 = 𝑷(𝑨) ∙ 𝑷(𝑩 𝒇𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑨)

Consider the given situations and
answer the questions that follow.

The name appearing on the

situation will be the one to solve
the problem.
Brex Paolo bag contains 6 black marbles, 9
blue marbles, 4 yellow marbles, and 2 green
marbles. A marble is randomly selected,
replaced, and a second marble is randomly
selected. Find the probability of selecting a
black marble, then a yellow marble.
A box of chocolates contains 10 milk chocolate, 8
dark chocolates, and 6 white chocolates. Aelish
randomly chooses a chocolate, eats it, and then
randomly chooses another chocolate. What is the
probability that Aelish chose a milk chocolate,
and then, a white chocolate?
A rental agency has 12 white cars, 8 gray cars, 6
red cars, and 3 green cars for rent. Renz Patrick
rents a car, returns it because the radio is broken,
and gets another car. What is the probability that
Renz Patrick is given a green car and then a gray
car?
A toy box contains 12 toys, 8 stuffed animals, and
3 board games. Cyrus Jay randomly chooses 2
toys for the child he is babysitting to play with.
What is the probability that he chose 2 stuffed
animals as the first two choices?
A basket contains 6 apples, 5 bananas, 4
oranges, and 5 guavas. Jy Hann randomly
chooses one piece of fruit, eats it, and chooses
another piece of fruit. What is the probability that
she chose a banana and then an apple?
A basket contains 5 apples, 10 bananas, 7
oranges, and 7 guavas. John Angelo randomly
chooses one piece of fruit, eats it, and chooses
another piece of fruit. What is the probability that
she chose a banana and then an apple?
Marcus Andrei has 4 black pens, 3 blue pens,
and 2 red pens in his school bag. He randomly
picks two pens out of his school bag. What is the
probability that he chose two blue pens, if he
replaced the first pen back in his pocket before
choosing a second pen?
Ashja bag of jelly beans contains 10 red, 6 green,
7 yellow, and 5 orange jelly beans. What is the
probability of randomly choosing a red jelly bean,
replacing it, randomly choosing another red jelly
bean, replacing it, and then randomly choosing
an orange jelly bean?
QUESTIONS/CLARRIFICATIONS?
What is Independent Event?
What is its formula?
What is Dependent Event?
What is its formula?
Assessment: ½ sheet crosswise
John and Paul went to a grocery store to buy
drinks. They chose from 10 different brands of
juice drinks, 6 different brands of carbonated
drinks, and 3 different brands of mineral water.
What is the probability that John and Paul both
chose juice drinks, if John and Paul randomly
chose first and liked the first brand he picked up?
 Exercise 7.2
A. In your own words
• Differentiate Mutually Exclusive and Not
Mutually Exclusive Events. Give each an
example.
• Differentiate Dependent and Independent
Events. Give each an example.
B.

1. is a 7 or a clear marble.
2. is an even number or a pink marble
3. is a brown marble or a number greater than 8
4. is a pink marble or a clear marble.
5. is a number greater than 10 or a pink marble.
 C.
A basket contains 5 apples, 10 bananas, 7
oranges, and 7 guavas. John Angelo randomly
chooses one piece of fruit, eats it, and chooses
another piece of fruit. What is the probability that
she chose a banana and then an apple?
 D.
John has 4 black pens, 3 blue pens, and 2 red
pens in his school bag. He randomly picks two
pens out of his school bag. What is the probability
that he chose two blue pens, if he did not replace
the first pen before choosing a second pen?
 E.
Mary’s bag of jelly beans contains 10 red, 6
green, 7 yellow, and 5 orange jelly beans. What is
the probability of randomly choosing a red jelly
bean, replacing it, randomly choosing another
red jelly bean, replacing it, and then randomly
choosing an orange jelly bean?
F.
John and Paul went to a grocery store to buy drinks.
They chose from 10 different brands of juice drinks, 6
different brands of carbonated drinks, and 3 different
brands of mineral water. What is the probability that
John and Paul both chose juice drinks, if John and Paul
randomly chose first and liked the first brand they picked
up?
THANK YOU!