Harmonic Trading Patterns
Harmonic Trading Patterns
I bet you have traded some chart patterns during your trading career.
Double Tops, Double Bottoms, Head and Shoulders – we all know these.
Although they are harder to spot, it is certainly worth watching out for
them, since these patterns can lead to highly profitable trading
opportunities when analyzed properly.
As you may already know, Fibonacci numbers can be seen all around us
in the natural world, and these harmonic ratios are also present within
the financial markets.
In most of the cases these patterns consist of four price moves, all of
them conforming to specific Fibonacci levels.
The most widely traded harmonic patterns include the Gartley pattern,
Bat Pattern,Butterfly Pattern, Cypher pattern, and the Crab pattern.
So the Gartley pattern is the oldest recognized harmonic pattern and all
the other harmonic patterns are a modification of the Gartley pattern.
Let’s now take a look at the legs within the Gartley formation:
XA: This could be any move on the chart and there are no specific
requirements for this move in order to be part of a harmonic pattern.
AB: This move is opposite to the XA move and it should be about 61.8%
of the XA move.
BC: This price move should be opposite to the AB move and it should be
38.2% or 88.6% of the AB move.
The blue lines and the percentage values show the retracement relation
between each of these levels.
The green arrows show the potential price move of the pattern.
The lines are a bit more symmetric and the pattern’s most important
ratio is the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement:
XA: This could be any move on the chart and there are no specific
requirements for this move in order to be part of a harmonic pattern.
AB: This move is opposite to the XA move and it should be about 38.2%
or 50.0% of XA.
As you see, the Bat harmonic pattern is similar to the Gartley pattern,
however, the retracement levels are different.
The retracement levels, though, are different, and this is considered and
extension pattern as the ending D leg extends outside the initial XA leg
XA:This could be any move on the chart and there are no specific
requirements for this move in order to be part of a harmonic pattern.
AB: This move is opposite to the XA move and it should be about 78.6%
of XA.
This is how the bullish and the bearish Butterfly harmonic chart
patterns look:
Notice that the Butterfly harmonic chart pattern indicates that the AD
move should go beyond the initial price move (XA).
The Crab also suggests that the last price move goes beyond the initial
move, where a Fibonacci extension should be used.
The Fibonacci levels used to identify the pattern are described below:
XA: This could be any move on the chart and there are no specific
requirements for this move in order to be part of a harmonic pattern.
AB: This move is opposite to the XA move and it should be about 38.2%
or 61.8% of XA.
BC: This move should be opposite to the AB move and it should be
38.2% or 88.6% of the AB move.
The BC move of the Cypher chart pattern goes beyond the XA move. This
means that we use an extension level on AB in order to measure the BC
output.
Below you will find the list of the Cypher pattern retracement levels:
XA: This could be any move on the chart and there are no specific
requirements for this move in order to be part of a harmonic pattern.
See below the structure of the Bullish and Bearish Cypher formation
As you see, the USD/CAD price records a significant increase after the
confirmation of the pattern.
We start with the AB move, which takes about 38.2% of the XA move.
Then comes the BC move which approximately reaches the 141.4
extension of the AB move.
The last move we identify is the CD move, which is about 78.6% of the
big XC move.
As you see, after creating point D, the EUR/USD price starts a solid price
increase.
Trading Strategy Using Harmonic Chart Patterns
When trading with harmonics it is important to recognize the entry point
at Point D, but equally important is to have a sound exit strategy.
This is the same first example with the bullish Butterfly chart pattern.
This time we have indicated the potential place where a Stop Loss order
should be placed when trading the pattern.
This provides for a very attractive return to risk ratio when trading the
pattern.
And this is why harmonic setups are such great chart patterns to trade.
There is very little left to judgement because the Fibonacci relationships
within harmonic patterns gives us an exact location of the potential
turning point.
If the price goes beyond that point, the pattern fails and we simply do
not enter the market.
I will now introduce you the potential target levels of a harmonic chart
pattern.
Let’s now include these target levels on our bullish Butterfly example:
This time, in addition to the Stop Loss level, we have added four
potential targets in front of the price move.
It is the level, which indicates the price drop during the AB decrease.
The second target marks the C point on the chart and the price top after
the BC increase.
The third target is the high which appears as a result of the XA increase.
As you see, these are the three targets which are related with the levels
of the Butterfly pattern.
Notice that the price increase continues beyond the fourth target in this
example.
Therefore, one could also employ a trailing stop to stay with his long
position until the price show signs of weakening.
Some of the more popular trading indicators to get exit signals when
trading harmonics are Moving Averages, MACD, or Stochastics.
The image below will show you an example of how to adjust your Stop
Loss order according to the price move:
We use the same USD/CAD chart with the bullish Butterfly pattern.
Every time the price completes a target, we adjust the Stop Loss order to
be located below the lowest bottom at the time of the target break.
On our image above we see that this guarantees us a stay in the market
even after the fourth target is completed.
Conclusion
The harmonic chart patterns are an advanced form of chart
pattern analysis based on Fibonacci numbers.
The basic harmonic patterns consist of four price moves which are
contrary to each other. The four legs are named XA, AB, BC, and
CD.
Bat Pattern
Butterfly Pattern
Crab Pattern
Cypher Pattern
Stop Losses should be placed right beyond the D point after the
price confirms the pattern and then reverses the move.
There are four targets that can be used when you trade harmonics
– the A, B, and C swing levels and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension
of the CD price move.