An Aging Population

People are living longer and, in some parts of the world, healthier lives. This represents one of
the crowning achievements of the last century, but also a significant challenge. Longer lives must
be planned for. Societal aging may affect economic growth and lead to many other issues,
including the sustainability of families, the ability of states and communities to provide resources
for older citizens, and international relations. The Global Burden of Disease, a study conducted
by the World Health Organization, predicts a very large increase in age-related chronic disease in
all regions of the world. Dealing with this will be a significant challenge for all countries’ health
services.

Population aging is driven by declines in fertility and improvements in health and longevity. In
more developed countries, falling fertility beginning in the early 1900’s has resulted in current
levels being below the population replacement rate of two live births per woman. Perhaps the
most surprising demographic development of the past 20 years has been the pace of fertility
decline in many less developed countries. In 2006, for example, the total fertility rate was at or
below the replacement rate in 44 less developed countries.

One central issue for policymakers in regard to pension funds is the relationship between the
official retirement age and actual retirement age. Over several decades in the latter part of the
20th century, many of the more developed nations lowered the official age at which people
become fully entitled to public pension benefits. This was propelled by general economic
conditions, changes in welfare philosophy, and private pension trends. Despite the recent trend
toward increased workforce participation at older ages, a significant gap between official and
actual ages of retirement persists. This trend is emerging in rapidly aging developing countries as
well. Many countries already have taken steps towards much-needed reform of their old-age
social insurance programs. One common reform has been to raise the age at which workers are
eligible for full public pension benefits. Another strategy for bolstering economic security for
older people has been to increase the contributions by workers. Other measures to enhance
income for older people include new financial instruments for private savings, tax incentives for
individual retirement savings, and supplemental occupational pension plans.

As life expectancy increases in most nations, so do the odds of different generations within a
family coexisting. In more developed countries, this has manifested itself as the ‘beanpole
family,’ a vertical extension of family structure characterised by an increase in the number of
living generations within a lineage and a decrease in the number of people within each
generation. As mortality rates continue to improve, more people in their 50’s and 60’s will have
surviving parents, aunts, and uncles. Consequently, more children will know their grandparents
and even their great-grandparents, especially their great-grandmothers. There is no historical
precedent for a majority of middle-aged and older adults having living parents.

As the World Health Organisation study, The Global Burden of Disease, predicts that in a few
decades the loss of health and life worldwide will be greater from non-communicable or chronic
diseases than from infectious diseases, childhood diseases, and accidents. The study estimates
that today, non-communicable diseases account for 85 per cent of the burden of disease in high-
income countries and a surprising 44 per cent of the burden of disease in low- and middle-
income countries. Non-communicable diseases already account for as much of the burden of
disease in low- and middle-income countries as all communicable diseases, maternal and
perinatal conditions, and nutritional conditions. By 2030, according to projections, the share of
the burden attributed to non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries will
reach 54 per cent, while the share attributed to communicable diseases will fall to 32 per cent. If
we restrict attention to older ages, non-communicable diseases already account for more than 87
per cent of the burden for the over-60 population in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.
The critical issue for low- and middle-income countries is how to mobilise and allocate resources
to address non-communicable diseases, as they continue to struggle with the continued high
prevalence of communicable diseases. Of course, a significant jump in disability numbers has
accompanied the increase in longevity.

Because countries age at different paces, it is possible for the elements of production - labour and
capital - to flow across national boundaries and mitigate the impact of population aging. Studies
predict that, in the near term, surplus capital will flow from Europe and North America to
emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, where the population is younger and cheaper and
supplies of capital relatively low. In another 20 years, when the baby boom generation in the
West has mostly retired, capital will most likely flow in the opposite direction. However, these
studies rest on the uncertain assumption that capital will flow easily across national boundaries.
Despite the weight of scientific evidence, the significance of population aging and its global
implications have yet to be wholly appreciated. There is a need to raise awareness about not only
global aging issues, but also the importance of rigorous cross-national scientific research and
policy dialogue that will help us address the challenges and opportunities of an aging world.
Preparing financially for longer lives and finding ways to reduce aging-related disability should
become national and global priorities. Experience shows that for nations, as for individuals, it is
critical to address problems sooner rather than later. Waiting significantly increases the costs and
difficulties of addressing these challenges.

Task 1.Complete the notes below.

Write NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS for each answer.

• The longer lives of people of today must be prepared for.

• The longer lives will affect economics, family life, old age care and health services.
• The aging population has been caused by a drop in fertility, improvements in health
and 1...............................; the former is surprisingly seen in many 2............................... .
• One key area to consider is the age for retirement benefits to be paid - this has changed a
lot recently in 3..............................., due to various conditions and trends.
• A lot of 4............................... is required in many countries and some have already done
this - usually by raising the official pension age or raising the 5............................... of
people still working.
• Other new financial instruments have also been launched.
• Longer life expectancy will also lead to different family 6............................... living with
each other more.
• There has been no previous 7............................... of such a change in family
demographics.

Task 2.Read the statements from the text and decide if they are True or False.
1. It is no shock that low- and middle-income countries have experienced a significant rise
in non-communicable diseases.
2. While the numbers of people with chronic diseases have increased around the world, the
numbers of people with disability problems have reduced.
 3. It is theorised that money invested short-term in Asia will later be reinvested back in the
West.
4. All the effects of population aging around the world have still not been fully realised.
5. It would be better to wait a while to see how the situation develops, as fast decisions
could create problems in the future.

Task 4. Choose the correct letter.

What is the writer’s purpose in Reading Passage?
A. To provide suggestions on how developed countries can deal with their aging
populations.
B. To provide an overview of the causes and effects of the world’s aging population.
C. To provide potential suggestions on how to prevent the world’s aging population from
increasing.
D. provide a historical analysis of the causes of today’s aging population.