International Journal of Social Sciences (IJSS)

Vol. 12, No. 1, 2022

The Impacts of Aging on Economic Growth and Sustainable Development

(Case Study of G20 Countries)

Milad Shahvaroughi Farahani 1

Department of Finance, Faculty of financial management, Khatam University, Tehran, Iran

Received 9 August 2021 ||| Accepted 18 April 2022

Abstract: One of the most important issues in recent years has been the issue of population aging and its
effects on the economy. It is clear that aging leads to increased healthcare costs, decreased productivity, saving,
investment, risk taking and etc. finally, the economic growth will slow. On the other hand, it is necessary to
address the issues of sustainable development, namely inequality, life expectancy, green life and etc. The main
goal of this article is survey the impacts of aging on sustainable development and G20 economies and their
plans for reducing and controlling the negative consequences. The main contribution of this article is that we
have integrated the issue of sustainable development and aging problem in G20 countries in terms of economic
and finance. The results show that the rate of fertility is decreasing and the rate of aging is increasing. So, G20
programs need to be considered and acted upon. We can conclude that by investing and effective measures and
identifying potential threats, the effects of reduced economic growth and productivity can be reduced.

Keywords: Aging, Healthcare costs, Sustainable development, Economic growth, G20 countries, Silver
economy.
JEL Codes Classification: E2, I1, I2, I3, J1, J2, J3, J4, J5, J6
|||

Introduction
Today, one of the most important global phenomenon is aging. It is estimated that the aging rate will
double by 2050 from 841 million people to more than 2 billion [Shlisky, J. et al, 2017]. After World
War II, the birth rate increased. Gradually, this rate dramatically decreased and globally, the
population of older age increased more than before at a faster rate [He, W. et al. 2016]. However, this
rate is different between countries. Aging have some consequences for societies such as low fertility
and high education, capital accumulation with favorable implications for labor productivity,
generational inequality, unsustainable public finances and etc. [Lee, R., & Mason, A. et al. 2010].
Aging causes new challenges for meeting sustainable development [World Health Organization.
2016]. We can consider three measures about aging:
1. Structural reforms that promote economic growth and sustainable development.
2. Social protection systems such as wealth accumulation, social security and etc.
3. Development of data system and tracking aging and demographic changes around the world
such as G20 and emerging economies.

Low fertility causes serous economic problems such as less savings, less investment, less risk
taking, less productivity and finally less economic growth [Zhang, J., & Zhang, J. 2005]. Some actions
and programs could help older workers keep their productivity such as active learning, vocational
training and etc. [Kanfer, R., & Ackerman, P. L. 2005].
Some public pension acts should be address such as raising the retirement age, increasing
contribution rates, adjusting compulsory government subsides, fairness pension system. G20
governments have considered a systemic view of pension systems due to socioeconomic aspects such
as education, migration, labor force participation [Stewart, M. 2020]. Some consideration in tax
system could be beneficial.
One of the considerable actions is to increase the retirement age. So, governments should take
actions in main parts such as health equality, providing flexible benefit options, complementing

1
Email: M.shahvaroughi@khatam.ac.ir (Corresponding Author)

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pension reforms with other welfare programs, boosting the demand for older workers, and improving
work environment safety [Casey, B. et al. 2003].
With increasing age, the cost of people such as health, treatment, social security, etc. will increase.
So, governments should address sustainable and effective social security system.
Responding to the challenges posed by the accelerating ageing of our societies and making the
most of the opportunities of the silver economy are increasingly relevant to the G20 agenda of
achieving strong, sustainable and balanced growth [Gordon, C. 2017].
There are some principles about silver economy and active aging which will address later.
The rest of the paper is as follows: first, we addressed economic indicators such as population
aging, healthy aging and etc. in second part, we discussed G20 actions in the direction of sustainable
development goals (SDGs). In third part, we have tried to mention some facts and principles about
aging. In part four, we have surveyed the pros and cons of aging population in G20 countries. Finally,
the last part is conclusion and remarks.

Aging in G20 societies

Population aging
The rapid growth of aging with more than one in eight people now aged 65 years or older
The rate of aged population in the G20 countries has increased 27% than the preceding 15 years and
this rate will increase to 39% until 2030 [Dieleman, J. L. et al. 2019].

Fig. 1. Median age of the population (years), G20 countries

Source: EU28: Eurostat estimates and projections; Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea,
Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States: national estimates and projections; and, for the other countries:
United Nations (2017), World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.

Working age populations will decline

There are two reasons for population aging in G20 countries: 1. decreasing the fertility rate 2. Longer
life expectancies at older ages [Bloom, D. E. et al. 2015]. Between 1995 and 2015 we can observe
decreasing 15% in fertility rates. While, the rate of life expectancy at age 60 has risen almost two
years.

Spending on health will continue to grow

In 2016, G20 countries spent on average 2904 USD per capita for health which it's different between
countries. For example; the lowest and the highest one are belong to India and USA about 269 USD
and 9892 USD respectively. The gap between emerging and developed countries in G20 is high.
Emerging economies in the G20 also spend less on health as a proportion of their GDP [Jakovljevic,
M. et al. 2020].

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Fig. 2. Health expenditure per capita, 2016 (or nearest year)

Note: Expenditure excludes investments, unless otherwise stated.

1. Australian expenditure estimates exclude all expenditure for residential aged care facilities in
welfare (social) services. 2. Includes investments. G20 average excludes Argentina and Saudi Arabia.
Source: OECD analysis using data from OECD (2017). Health at a Glance 2017.
Expenditure on health will increase in G20 countries from 8.7% in 2015 to 10.3% in 2030.
Although, this increase depends on many factors such as technological advancement, productivity
gains, economic growth, and demographic change [Lafortune, G. et al. 2018].

Population aging has not always occurred in good health

In 23 OECD countries, there is a gap between highly-educated and low-educated populations respect
to life expectancy which is almost 3.5 years and 2.4 years for men and women respectively [Murtin, F.
et al. 2017]. There are different parameters which can affect their health and quality of life including
financial insecurity, loneliness, social isolation and mental distress. The poverty rate is different
between men and women too and the risk of poverty in women is more than men in old age. The
likelihood of poverty and poor health is twice less than in high-educated people.
By creating gap between old and young generation, we will observe inequality in labor market. it is
estimated that nearly one-third of adults 65 and older in many G20 countries to live alone.
The experiments show that people who live alone are than 30% more likely to report symptoms of
mental distress than those living with family or friends [Shankar, A. et al. 2011]. Nearly half of people
who live alone have experienced depression. The rate of living alone in high-educated is 40% less than
lower-educated people in old age [Monden, C. W. et al. 2003].

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Fig. 3. Figure 1.6. Proportion of adults 65+ living alone

Source: OECD analysis (2019) using microdata from SHARE, HRS, ELSA, MHAS, LASI, CHARLS health and retirement
surveys.

2.1.5. Older populations face cognitive and physical impairment

Almost 20% of old age people have difficulties in doing daily activities across eight G20 countries.
This increases their need for support. There is an estimation which is that 300 million older persons
will require care until 2030 that is 50% more than 2015 [Mathers, C. D., & Loncar, D. 2006]. So, we
should overcome some limitations such as inequality and low education.

Fig. 4. Self-reported poor health and disability rates for individuals 65+
Note: Poor health and disability are measured using self-reported indices: i) participants responded “poor” when asked
whether their health was excellent, very good, good, fair, or poor; ii) participants reported at least one limitation in activities
of daily living (ADL).
Source: OECD analysis (unpublished) using microdata from SHARE, HRS, MHAS, LASI, CHARLS health and retirement
surveys.

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The rate of some disease such as dementia is increasing in G20 countries. Without any attention
and actions, this rate will increase from 40 million in 2020 to 100 million in 2050. There are much
costs globally for decreasing dementia which was estimated 1 trillion USD threshold in2018.

Healthy aging
Investing in health includes economic and social benefits. We can prevent people from living in poor
health. On the other hand, we can reduce healthcare costs. This can mitigate inequality.

There are significant economic consequences to population ageing

The results show that health expenditure will increase about 3.9% between 2015 and 2030 which
contains about more than 10 % of GDP across 15 G20 countries by 2030 [McBride, B. et al. 2019].
There are some key drivers of health spending growth such as rising incomes, productivity constraints,
and technological progress and demographic factors.

Fig. 5. Contribution of key drivers to average annual health spending growth to 2030 by scenario
Source: OECD analysis based on methodology developed for Lorenzoni, et al, 2019.

Healthy aging policies can decrease the future health expenditure such as encourage healthy aging.

Poor health has lifelong impacts on working lives

Poor health can lead to a reduction in the workforce population and length of time they spend in
employment [Anderson, G. F., & Hussey, P. S. 2000]. Rich health can help people increasing the
length of time and decreasing some risk factors including obesity, smoking, heavy alcohol use and
chronic disease which are all associated with lower rates of employment.

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Ageing is affecting economic growth

When the growth rate of working age population decreases, the future growth of GDP per capita will
decrease and the old age dependency ratio (the total number of people too young or old to work,
divided by those of working age (15–64 years old)) will increase [Sinnathurai, V. 2013]. By improving
the living standards, it could be possible slow the pace of declining working age population. It is
predicted that the decline in working age population will reduce the growth rate of GDP per capita 11
G20 countries between 2018 and 2030 and by 2030, only two G20 countries – India and South Africa
– will still enjoy gains to GDP from the demographic dividend.

Fig. 6. Working-age population contribution to GDP per capita growth

Source: OECD (2018), The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060.

Healthy ageing helps to extend the working lives of older people

In recent years, the employment rates have increased for older workers in G20 countries, especially
women, rising from 47.8% in 2000 to 64.4% in 2017.

Fig. 7. Employment rates, age 55-64

Source: OECD Labor Force Statistics database.

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Healthy ageing helps reduce costs to health and social care systems
Health improvement helping to reduce health expenditure, and increasing engagement in the
workforce for some older workers. SDGs can be effective on healthy lives to reduce preventable
deaths. The WHO has some plans which called Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of
Non-Communicable Diseases which countries follows until 2025 [World Health Organization. 2018].1
G20 countries could prevent and reduce the premature mortality due to obesity among people 50-
70 by 1.3% annually between 2020 and 2050 or 4.3 million premature deaths across G20 countries.

Fig. 8. Annual reduction in premature deaths among people 50-70 years' old

Source: OECD microsimulation analysis, 2019

Across G20 countries, by remaining the obesity rate stable, nearly one million cases of cancer, 2.2
million cases of dementia, 5 million cases of diabetes, and more than 27 million cases of
cardiovascular disease would be avoided among people 50 and older between 2020 and 2050
[Dyakova, M. 2017].
After halting the obesity rate, per-capita health expenditures would be on average 0.5% lower per
year across G20 countries, compared with the status quo. This would result in annual health
expenditure savings in G20 countries of more than USD PPP 11 billion per year.

Sustainable and inclusive societies for all ages require a life course approach
Policies and measures need to be considered for both young and old to ensure poor health is prevented
before it begins. Some policies that encourage people to participate in labor market. Policies which are
socioeconomic.

Prevent unhealthy behaviors

Many diseases are caused by risk factors such as smoking, overweight-obesity and alcohol
consumption [Scarborough, P. et al. 2011]. In recent years, overweight and obesity have increased
across G20 countries about 60% and 50% aged over 65 and 80 years respectively. It is clear that there
is a direct link between obesity and chronic disease including cardiovascular disease and diabetes. In
2015, the cause of death of 4 million people was obesity.

1
For more information about these global action plan, see WHO Global NCD Action Plan (2013-2020).

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Fig. 9. Reduction in per-capita health expenditure after halting the rise in obesity rates

Source: OECD microsimulation analysis, 2019.

Fig. 10. Prevalence of overweight-obesity, select G20 countries

Note: Proportion of the population with BMI>=25

Source: OECD analysis (unpublished) using microdata from ELSA, SHARE, HRS, MHAS, LASI, CHARLS health and
retirement surveys.

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Fig. 11. Rising overweight (including obesity) rates in adults aged 15-74 years

Note: Overweight and obesity rates designate overweight and obesity prevalence rates. Age- and gender-adjusted rates of
overweight (including obesity), using the 2005 OECD standard population. Measured height and weight in England,
Hungary, Korea, Mexico and the United States; self-reported in other countries.
Source: OECD 2017.

As it is clear, tobacco consumption and smoking is a risk factor for health and has decreased in
G20 countries except Indonesia.

Fig. 12. Adult population smoking daily, 2000 and 2015 (or nearest year)

Source: OECD Health Statistics 2017.

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Like tobacco, alcohol consumption is another risk factor for health which has declined in G20
countries from 7.41 in 2015 to 7.25 liters per capita. This amount is different between countries. For
example, it has increased in some countries such as China and India and it has decreased in others
such as Italy and Japan. It needs to mention that harmful drinking Has some risks such as violence and
traffic accidents and are common between young people too.

Fig. 13. Recorded alcohol consumption among adults, 2000 and 2015 (or nearest year)

Source: OECD Health Statistics 2017.

G20 countries have adopted some policies which are cost-effective for turning these harmful
behaviors to healthy behaviors. A policy package such as mass media information campaign,
increasing the price of unhealthy productions and heavy taxes [Cecchini, M. et al. 2010]. G20
countries tries to change the life style and expand the availability of healthy options.

Encourage physical activity

Developing physical activity guidelines can maintain good health and reducing many risk factors.

Address barriers to health literacy

Sufficient health literacy and ability to search in the internet for more information and participate in
their own care is critical for healthy aging [Ishikawa, H., & Yano, E. 2008]. In G20 countries, the
proportion of population with low health literacy exceeds 50%. Low health literacy means higher risk
of mortality, underscoring the need to ensure that health information is communicated clearly and the
population is equipped to understand it. Old age and adults between the ages of 25 and 54 use online
search and seek health related information 9.7% and 47.3% respectively. It needs to promote digital
literacy among older adults.

G20 sustainable development goals (SDGs)

SDGs are a collection of 17 global goals to achieve and sustainable future life for all of the people by
2030 [Kloke-Lesch, A. 2015]. G20 countries controlling and coordinating these goals and reporting
the results for each country separately. The SDGs goals are directly related to old age people and the
quality of their lives. So, it is necessary to mention them.

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Fig14. Individuals using the internet to seek health information in the past 3 months (%)

Note: Data for the United States refers to 2015.

Source: OECD analysis using data from OECD Statistical Database, 2018. ICT Access and Usage by Households and
Individuals Database.

Table 1. SDGs

No SDGs Descriptions
Ensure that all of the people especially poor and vulnerable have
1 No poverty
equal rights to economic resources and ending poverty.
safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round and ending
2 Zero hunger
hunger.
Good health and well- Ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all persons
3
being with disabilities.
Ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education for all persons
4 Quality education
with disabilities.
Achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls
5 Gender equality with disabilities. End all forms of discrimination against all
women and girls everywhere.
Ensuring the availability of water and sanitation for persons with
Clean water and
6 disabilities. achieve universal and equitable access to safe and
sustain
affordable drinking water for all.
Affordable and Clean Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern
7
Energy energy for all.
Decent Work and Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth,
8
Economic Growth full and productive employment and decent work for all.
Industry, Innovation Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable
9
and Infrastructure industrialization and foster innovation.
10 Reduced Inequality Reduce inequality within and among countries.
Sustainable Cities and Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and
11
Communities sustainable.

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Responsible
12 Consumption and Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.
Production
13 Climate Action Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine
14 Life Below Water
resources for sustainable development.
Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial
15 Life on Land ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification,
and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.
Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable
Peace and Justice
16 development, provide access to justice for all and build effective,
Strong Institutions
accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.
Partnerships to achieve Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global
17
the Goal. partnership for sustainable development.

The results show that the G20 countries have not performed relatively well in performing and
following SDGs. But all fall short on important dimensions, such as government accountability
mechanisms, public management practices, and budgeting. Brazil and Mexico shows the high
institutionalization while the USA and the Russian Federation perform worst.

Fig. 15. national coordination and implementation mechanism for the SDGs in G20 countries, 2018.

The dashboard is for members of G20 and countries with more than 100 million populations. It is
used set of 77 and 63 indicators for OECD and non-OECD countries to calculate dashboards. Green
color implies that the country has achieved the goal, yellow means still there are some challenges
remains and red indicates that there are major challenges that must be overcome. Grey shows that
there is not any data.
About how each country works, see (SDG index and dashboard report 2018).

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Fig. 16. G20 SDG trends dashboards

Source: Guido Schmidt-Traub et al, 2017

G20 Principles on Silver Economy and Active Ageing

It is estimated that the number of older people will increase from 841 million in 2013 to more than 2
billion in 2050. So, it is clear that It is clear that the labor market and the economy will be affected by
these changes. Responding to the challenges and due to changes in economic structure, both young
and old citizens and their rights should be considered. Some G20 principles are as follows:

Table2. G20 principles on silver economy and active aging

No Explanations
Involvement of the elderly in political occasions and the importance of their
1
decisions along the way.
Better access to a healthy, safe and active life, Prevent poverty among the elderly
2
and promoting healthy life style.
Improving working environment and encourage old age people to increase
3 productivity, better access to employment opportunities for older people and
preventing the early loss of skills.
Omitting discrimination between people in different ages especially in hiring and
4
firing of workers.
Allowing older people to engage in social and cultural activities and benefit from
5
their experiences.
Identify the benefits of the silver economy and turn threats into opportunities in the
6
future.
Investment in infrastructure and innovative technology such as AI especially in the
field of healthcare, home assistance, transportation, internet of things, domotics and
7
robotics, to satisfy -among others- the needs of autonomy and high quality life for
the elderly people.
8 Facilitate financial services for the elderly and identifying their new needs.
9 Increase skills and continuous learning to compete in the future.

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Creating some buildings for gathering urban and rural seniors and connecting them
10
by ICT.
Cooperation and participation of emerging and developed countries to improve
11 areas such as medical treatments, healthcare and
long-term care.
Transition of experience and knowledge in traditional professions from older to
12
young people through specific programs.
Participation of all people from different groups such as public and private
13 actors, civil society and charity organizations, community-based centers and
representatives of senior citizens while developing policies on population ageing.
Coordination between experts in various fields, including economic, social, etc.
14
when making policies for the elderly population.

Pros and cons of aging population in G20 countries

There are social and economic advantages and disadvantages of aging population. Some of them as the
following:

Table3. Advantages and disadvantages of aging population

No Pros Cons
Less economic growth
Higher accumulated savings per head than younger
1 because of low replacement
people
rate.
Lower interest rates and the economic benefit of
Health problem and high
2 lower inflation could be the results of aging
healthcare-cost.
population.
Transition of culture and religious to the next Required to respond to
3
generations. needs of elderly.
Having enough time after retirement and
4 Increase in pension costs.
participating in social and cultural activities.
Fewer tax contributions due
5 A mass of volunteer workers
to less active workers.
Migration of industry in
6 Tend to have smaller carbon footprint (travel less)
cheaper workplace.
7 More jobs creation by the level of retirements Decreased birth rate
8 More grey spending such as holidays. Child caring grandparents.
9 Bigger pool of part-time workers. Fewer working people.
10 Lower crime rate

The elderly is a crucial part of the community and they contribute both knowledge and experience
beyond their years. An aged population puts endless economic stress on the nation, as health care
funding and superannuation requires exponential funding, as general living cost continue to rise. With
such a large proportion of the population as classified as elderly, it is hard to overlook the long list of
disadvantages.

Conclusions
As the population ages, economic and political conditions will change, and policies need to be
considered. These policies are used to keep the elderly healthy and increase their working time and life
expectancy. Governments set goals for some reasons including prevent poor health, that actively

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include older people in their communities, and that offer strong health and social support when people
eventually do require help. G20 countries should attention and monitor demographic transition before
it arrives. Benefiting from the experiences of older people can increase their life expectancy and
increase the productivity of young people. by some arrangements, it could be possible to remain the
aging population in the market labor but it needs some policies such as Reducing incentives that
encourage early retirement, fighting age discrimination and promoting lifelong learning. There is an
important point and it is that our aging will come too.

Declarations
Funding: this research paper is supported by Khatam University.
Conflict of interest / Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no known
competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work
reported in this paper.
 Funding: This study was funded by Khatam University
 Employment: Any organization or employment won't gain or loss financially through
publication of this manuscript.
 Financial interests: The authors declare they have no financial interests

Ethics approval: Not applicable

Consent to participate: Not applicable
Consent for publication: Not applicable
Availability of data and material: All the sources used in this article are listed in the references
section.
Code availability: No code was used in this article.
Author's contribution: The main contribution of this article is that we have integrated the issue of
sustainable development and aging problem in G20 countries in terms of economic and finance.

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