Probability, Set, Distributions

and Random Variable

AccioJob/ DataScience-Fundamentals
Content

● Probability
● Sets and Venn Diagrams
● Bayes Theorem and Conditional Probability
● Mutually Exclusive Events and Independent Events
● Random variables
● Probability Distributions - Bernoulli, Poisson, Binomial, Normal
● Permutations and Combinations
Probability
Probability Fundamentals
What is the Probability of an Event?

Probability is a measure of ‘uncertainty’ or ‘likelihood’ or ‘chance’ that a particular event or outcome will
occur. It represents the ratio of the ‘favorable outcomes’ to the ‘total possible outcomes’ in a given
situation.
With the concept of probability, we can quantify uncertainty and randomness that we experience in our
daily lives. With any random phenomenon, the probability of a particular outcome is the proportion of
times that the outcome would occur in a long run of observations.

n(A) number of elements in

the set of the Event A
P(A) =
total no. of elements
Probability
of Event A
n(S) in the Sample space S
Probability - Range of values

● Probability lies between 0 and 1

● Greater the Probability higher the confidence of occurence of event and vice versa
● Probability of 0.75 means 75% chance of occurence of an event
Probability - The Coin experiment - Single flip
What happens when we flip a fair Coin? What is the probability of
Heads and Tails?

Probability of Heads Probability of Tails

P(H) P(T)

Favorable outcome Favorable outcome

(count of outcomes with Heads) (count of outcomes with Tails)
Outcome Matrix
Total possible outcomes Total possible outcomes
All
outcomes
Heads Tails
n(Heads) n(Tails)
Symbol of H T
n(Total) n(Total) outcomes

Count of 1 1
outcomes
1/2 1/2
Probability Tree of Coin experiment - Multiple flips
The probability tree illustrates the possible outcomes of a sequence of 5 coin tosses. For the sake of brevity only the 16
sequences starting with heads and their characteristics-relative frequency of heads and tails, longest run within the sequence,
number of runs within the sequence, and alternation rate-are displayed.
Probability -for
Themore
Dicecoins
Experiment
What happens when we roll 2 dice? How does probability work for different
outcomes? What is the probability of rolling a 4 or a 7?
Total Outcomes (The Sample Space)
[1][1], [1][2], [1][3], [1][4], [1][5], [1][6],
[2][1], [2][2], [2][3], [2][4], [2][5], [2][6],
[3][1], [3][2], [3][3], [3][4], [3][5], [3][6], n(Total)
[4][1], [4][2], [4][3], [4][4], [4][5], [4][6],
[5][1], [5][2], [5][3], [5][4], [5][5], [5][6], 36
[6][1], [6][2], [6][3], [6][4], [6][5], [6][6].
n(4 or 7)

Favourable Outcomes (4 or 7) n (Total)

[1][1], [1][2], [1][3], [1][4], [1][5], [1][6], = 9/36 = 0.25
[2][1], [2][2], [2][3], [2][4], [2][5], [2][6],
[3][1], [3][2], [3][3], [3][4], [3][5], [3][6],
[4][1], [4][2], [4][3], [4][4], [4][5], [4][6], n(4 or 7)
[5][1], [5][2], [5][3], [5][4], [5][5], [5][6], 9
[6][1], [6][2], [6][3], [6][4], [6][5], [6][6].
Probability
The outcome forMatrix
more coins
for roll of 2 dice
Outcome Favourable Total
Probability
of Dice Outcomes Outcomes
2 36

3 36

4 36

5 36

6 36

7 36

8 36

9 36

10 36

Two (6-sided) dice roll outcome table 11 36

12 36

● What is the probability of getting a 5 and 8 in a roll of 2 dice?

● What is the probability of getting a value > 10 in a roll of 2 dice?
● What is the probability of getting a value < 5 in a roll of 2 dice?
Probability -for
Themore
Cards
coins
Experiment
What happens when we draw a card(s) from a pack of playing cards ? How
does probability work for different outcomes?

Understanding the deck of cards

● The number of Spades (Black), Hearts (red), Diamonds (red), and Clubs (back) is same
in every pack of 52 cards. These are called Suits. Each suit has 13 cards.
● There are 13 cards of each suit, consisting of 1 Ace, 3 face cards, and 9 number cards.
● There are 4 Aces, 12 face cards, and 36 number cards in a 52 card deck
● Probability of drawing any card will always lie between 0 and 1.

Calculating the probabilities from the deck of cards

P(Black Card) = 26/52 = 1/2

P(Ace) = 4/52

P(Black Ace) = 2/52

The Cards Experiment - All the cards
Simple and Compound Event
SIMPLE EVENT

A simple event is one that can only

happen in one way - in other words, it
has a single outcome. Example - Find the probabIlity of picking the months with the
name starting from - 'J' from the bag having then names of all
Example of tossing a coin: we get one months.
outcome that is a Head or a Tail.
Desired Outcomes - Jan, June and July - 3
Calculating simple event probability Total Outcomes - 12
starts with two key points.
Probability = 3/12 = 0.25
1) Know the desired outcome.

2) Know the total possible outcomes.

Simple and Compound Event
COMPOUND EVENT

A compound event is more complex Example - Find the probability of Flipping Heads and Rolling
than a simple event, as it involves the number Greater Than 4.
probability of more than one
outcome. It is as a combination of Possible outcomes of coin {H,T}
two or more simple events. Possible outcomes of dice {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Example: The probability of finding an Total list of outcomes of the experiment

even number less than 5. {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6} = 12

We have a combination of two simple Success outcomes

events: finding an even number, and {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6} = 2
finding a number that is less than 5.
Thus the probability of the successful outcomes = 2/12
Sets and Venn Diagrams
Basic Definitions: Events, Sample Space, and Probabilities
What are Sets?
● A set is defined as a well-defined collection of
objects. It is represented by a capital letter.
A = 2, 6, 10, 100, 12000
● A set can have any group of items, be it a collection
of numbers, days of a week, types of vehicles, and
so on. Set Name = A
● Every item in set is called an ‘Element’ of the set.
● Curly brackets are used while writing a set. Elements of the Set =
● An element that is contained in a set is represented 2,6,10,100 and 12,000
by the symbol '∈'. In the example, 2 ∈ A. If an 2 ∈ A, 6 ∈ A, 10 ∈ A, 100
element is not a member of a set, then it is denoted ∈ A, 12,000 ∈ A
using the symbol '∉'. For example, 3 ∉ A.
Symbols used in Sets
Symbol Name Meaning Example

Set A collection of elements A = {1, 7, 9, 13, 15, 23},

{}
B = {9, 13, 21, 23}

A∪B Union Elements that belong to set A or set B A ∪ B = {1, 7, 9, 13, 15, 21, 23}

A∩B Intersection Elements that belong to both the sets, A and B A ∩ B = {9, 13, 23 }

A⊆B Subset subset has few or all elements equal to the set {7, 15} ⊆ {7, 13, 15, 21}
{7, 15} ⊆ {7, 15}

A⊄B Not subset left set is not a subset of right set {1, 20} ⊄ B

A⊇B Superset Set A has more elements or equal to the set B {1, 7, 9, 13, 15, 23} ⊇ {7, 13, 15, 23}

x∉A Not element of No set membership A = {1, 7, 9, 13, 15, 23}, 5 ∉ A

Empty set Ø={} C = {Ø}

Ø
Symbols used in Sets
Symbol Name Meaning Example

a∈B Element of Set membership B = {7, 13, 15, 21},

13 ∈ B

x∉A Not element of no set membership A = {1, 7, 9, 13, 15, 23}, 5 ∉ A

Equality Both sets have the same members. Order need not be {7, 13,15} = {13, 7, 15}
A=B
same.

Ā or A’ or Ac Complement All the objects that do not belong to set A If U = {1, 2, 7, 9, 13, 15, 21, 23,
28, 30}; A = {1, 7, 9, 13, 15, 23}
Ac = {2, 21, 28, 30}
Types of Sets
Set Type Definition Example

A set that has only one element is called a singleton Set A = { k | k is an integer
Singleton Sets set or also called a unit set. between 7 and 9} which is A =
{8}.

A set with a finite or countable number of elements Set B = {k | k is a prime number

Finite Sets is called a finite set. less than 15}, which is B =
{2,3,5,7,11,13}

A set with an infinite number of elements is called Set C = {Multiples of 10}

Infinite Sets
an infinite set.

A set that does not has any element in it is called an Set X = { }.

Empty set or a Null set. An empty set is denoted
Empty or Null Sets using the symbol '∅'.

Two Sets are said to be disjoint when they do not A = {1,2,3,4} B = {5,6,7,8}. Here,
Disjoint Sets have any common element. set A and set B are disjoint sets.
Venn Diagram
Venn Diagram

● Schematic drawing of sets that

demonstrates the relationships A AUB
between different sets A’
● Sets are shown as circles, or other
closed figures, within a rectangle Set A and its Complement. AUB is A Union B.

corresponding to the universal set,

U.
● The elements are either shown
A B A B
inside the circles (if they belong to
set) or outside if they di not belong AᑎB
to set.
AᑎB - A Intersection B. A and B are Disjoint sets.
Union, Intersection and Complement - An Example

Example -

U = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10} 8
7
Set A = {1,2,3,4}
1 3 5
Set B = {3,4,5,6}
2 4 6
Union, Intersection and Complement
9 10
● A U B = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
● A ᑎ B = {3,4}
● A’ = {7,8,9,10}
Formula for Union/ Intersection for number of elements

Union

n(A U B) = n(A) + n(B) - n(A ∩ B)

Intersection

n(A ∩ B) = n(A) + n(B) - n(A U B)

Formula for Union/ Intersection for number of elements
For two Disjoint sets
Union

n(A U B) = n(A) + n(B)

Intersection

n(A ∩ B) = 𝜙
Difference

n(A - B) = n(A)
Mutually Exclusive and Disjoint Events
Mutually Exclusive Events

● Mutually exclusive events are the events that

cannot occur or happen at the same time.
● Thus, the probability of the events happening at
the same time is zero.
● They are also called Disjoint Events.
● The sum of the probability of Mutually Exclusive
The formula for the probability of an event
events can never be greater than 1. It can be less
A occurring or the probability of event B
than 1 (in case the 2 events are not exhaustive) occurring is given as P(A) + P(B). Thus -
or equal to 1 (if the events are exhaustive).
● In this case, the sum of their probability is P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
exactly 1.
P (A ∩ B) = 0
Example of Mutually Exclusive Events
Tossing a coin has 2 outcomes - Heads and Tails. They both
cannot occur together thus the event of 'Head' outcome and
event of 'Tail' outcome are Mutually Exclusive. Hence the
probability of H and T occurring together is 0.

In a six-sided die, the events '1', '2', '3', '4', '5' and '6' are mutually
exclusive events. We cannot get any of these events together at the
same time when we threw one die.

In a deck of 52 cards, drawing a Red card and Jack are NOT

Mutually Exclusive Events - because we can draw 2 cards
which can be RED and JACK.
Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive
Mutually Exclusive AND Exhaustive Mutually Exclusive AND NOT Exhaustive

The two events are said to be Mutually The two events are said to be Mutually
Exclusive and Exhaustive when the sum Exclusive and Exhaustive when the sum of
of their probabilities = 1. their probabilities < `1.

Eg - The event of Head or Tail when you Eg - In a six-sided die, the events '2', and '6'
toss a coin are Mutually Exclusive and are M.E. events but NOT EXHAUSTIVE as
Exhaustive. Thus - there are other outcome also that can
come up.
P (H) + P (T) = 0.5 + 0.5 = 1 P (2 and 6) = 0.33 < 1
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem

● It was named after the 18th-century

British mathematician Thomas Bayes
● It is the Theorem that describes the
Conditional Probability.
● Conditional probability means - Where -
probability of occurrence of an event
P(A) = probability of happening of Event A
related to any condition.
● It is defined as the likelihood that an P(B) = probability of happening of Event B
event will occur, based on the
P(A|B) = probability of event A given B
occurrence of a previous outcome.
P(B|A) = probability of event B given A
Example for Bayes Theorem
What are the chances of Rain during the day knowing it is cloudy?

P(R) = Probability of Rain = 10%

P(C) = Probability of Cloud = 40%

P(C|R) = Probability of Cloud knowing it rained = 70%.

Find P(R|C) = Probability of Rain knowing it is cloudy?

=((0.7)*(0.1))/0.4 =0.175
Confusion Matrix for Bayes Theorem
What is the probability that a person selected is a
Girl knowing the person plays cricket?
Cricket Other Games
P(A) = probability of selecting a Girl =(12+40)/
(12+40+35+10) = 0.536
Boy
P(B) = probability of playing cricket
=(35+12)/(35+10+12+40) = 0.485

P(B|A) = probability of cricket knowing girl = 12/52 Girls

= 0.231

P(A|B) = probability of girl knowing the person plays

cricket = (0.231*0.536)/0.485 or = 12/(35+12)
Independent Events
For an Independent Event
Independent Events

When the occurence of one event does not

control the happening of the other event P(A ∩ B) = P(A). P(B)
then it is termed as an independent event.

There is no influence of an occurrence with

another and they are independent of each
other.

If the probability of occurrence of an event A

is not affected by the occurrence of another
event B, then A and B are said to be
independent events.
Independent Events

When rolling a dice -

Event A - Rolling an Odd number {1,3,5} and Event B - Rolling multiple of 3 {3,6}. Thus -

P(A)= 3/6 = 1/2 and P(B) = 2/6 = ⅓ and P(A ∩ B) =1/6 i.e. {3}

P (A|B) is the probability of Event A knowing B has already occurred.

P(A│B) = P(A ∩ B)/ P(B) = (1/6)/(1/3) = 0.5

Since P(A) and P(A|B) are equal to 0.5 - means that the occurrence of Event B does not
impacted the probability of occurrence of event A.

That means both the events are independent.

Thus - If A and B are independent events, then P(A│B) = P(A)

Independent Events

A B
Using multiplication Rule -

P(A ∩ B) = P(B) .P(A│B)

P(A ∩ B) = P(B) .P(A)

P(A ∩ B) = P(B) .P(A)
Thus - A and B are two events
associated with the same random
experiment, then A and B are
known as independent events if -
INDEPENDENT
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) .P(A)
Independent Events
De Morgans’s law

First law states that - The complement of the

union of two sets is the intersection of their
complements

LHS Complement of Union of two sets

RHS Intersection of their Complements

(A U B)' = (A)' ∩ (B)'

De Morgans’s law

Second law states that - the complement of the

intersection of two sets is the union of their
complements

LHS Complement of intersection of two sets

RHS Union of their Complements

(A ∩ B)' = (A)' U (B)'

Example of De Morgans’s law

(AUB)’ = A’ ∩ B’
LHS RHS

If U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,9,10}, A (A U B) - {3,4,5,6,7} (A)' - {1,2,7,8,9,10}

(A U B)' - {1,2,,8,9,10} (B)' - {1,2,3,8,9,10}
={3, 4, 5,6}, B = {4, 5, 6,7}.
(A)' ∩ (B)' - {1,2,8,9,10}
Then show that
(A∩B)’ = A’ U B’
a) (AUB)’ = A’∩B’ RHS
b) (A∩B)’ = A’U B’. LHS
(A)' - {1,2,7,8,9,10}
(A ∩ B) - {4,5,6}
(B)' - {1,2,3,8,9,10}
(A ∩ B)' - {1,2,3,7,8,9,10}
(A)' U (B)' - {1,2,3,78,9,10}
Terminology related to Probability

Term Definition

Experiment An activity whose outcomes are not known is an experiment. Every experiment has a few favorable outcomes and
a few unfavorable outcomes.

Random A random experiment is an experiment for which the set of possible outcomes is known, but which specific
Experiment outcome will occur on a particular execution of the experiment cannot be said prior to performing the experiment.
Eg - Tossing a coin, rolling a die, and drawing a card from a deck are all examples of random experiments.

Trial The numerous attempts in the process of an experiment are called trials. In other words, any particular
performance of a random experiment is called a trial. For example, tossing a fair coin 2 times are 2 trials.

Event An event is an outcome or a set of outcomes that we are interested in. It can be a single outcome or a combination
of outcomes.

Random Event An event that cannot be easily predicted is a random event. For such events, the probability value is very less.The
formation of a rainbow during the rain is a random event.
Terminology related to Probability

Term Definition

Sample Space The sample space represents the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment or a random process. It is
denoted by the symbol "Ω" or sometimes "S".

Outcome An outcome is a specific result that can occur in an experiment or a random process. It is a member of the
sample space.

Possible Outcome The list of all the outcomes in an experiment can be referred to as possible outcomes. In tossing a coin, the
possible outcomes are heads or tails.

Equally likely An experiment in which each of the outcomes has an equal probability, such outcomes are referred to as
Outcomes equally likely outcomes. In the process of rolling a six-faced dice, the probability of getting any number is equal
to 1/6.

Probability Probability is a numerical measure that quantifies the likelihood of an event occurring. It is a value between 0
and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.
Terminology related to Probability

Term Definition

Probability A probability distribution describes the probabilities of all possible values that a random variable can take.
Distribution It can be represented by a table, a graph, or a mathematical function.

Independent Independent events are events where the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the
Events other event occurring. The probability of two independent events happening together is the product of their
individual probabilities.

Dependent Dependent events are events where the occurrence of one event affects the probability of the other event
Events occurring. The probability of two dependent events happening together is the product of the probability of
the first event and the conditional probability of the second event given the first event.

Complementary The complementary event of an event A is the event that A does not occur. The probability of the
Events complementary event is equal to 1 minus the probability of the original event. For an event with probability
P(A), its compliment is P(Ā) i.e. P(A) + P(Ā) = 1.
Terminology related to Probability

Term Definition

Mutually Two events such that the happening of one event prevents the happening of another event are referred to
Exclusive Events as mutually exclusive events. In other words, two events are said to be mutually exclusive events, if they
cannot occur at the same time. For example, tossing a coin can result in either heads or tails. Both cannot
be seen at the same time.

Conditional Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already
Probability occurred. It is denoted as P(A|B), where A and B are events. Thus P(A|B) means Probability of A knowing
B has already occurred. This is alao known as Bayes Theorem.

Expected Value The expected value of a random variable is the long-term average value that would be obtained if the
random experiment or process were repeated many times. It is also known as the mean or the average.
Random Variable and Distributions
Random Variable Concept

Random Variable is

● Whose value cannot be determined till the last moment (or

till the time it occurs) thus it can take up may values
● Whose value is probabilistic in nature i.e. its value is
determined in probability
● Function that maps the outcomes of a random experiment
to numeric quantities, typically real numbers thus with
random variables you quantify outcomes

Random Variable has a probability law - a rule that assigns probabilities to different values of random variable. This
probability law is called Probability Distribution of the Random Variable. We usually donate Random Variable with
capital letter let’s say X. Then Probability Distribution of X is donate by P(X).
Random Variable - Example of rolling of 2 dice Example
Outcomes when you roll 2 dice
Histogram of rolling dice Concept
Random Variable - Example of flipping 4 coins Example
Probability Distribution of Heads and Tails when flipping a coin 4 times.

H,H,H,H H,T,H,H T,H,H,H T,T,H,H

Sample Space
S= H,H,H,T H,T,H,T T,H,H,T T,T,H,T
of flipping a
H,H,T,H H,T,T,H T,H,T,H T,T,T,H coin 4 times Histogram showing the Heads
H,H,T,T H,T,T,T T,H,T,T T,T,T,T
6
Let X be the number of Heads in the event (also called Number of Successes).
4 4
X
Options Probability [P(X)]
(Outcome)

0 TTTT 1/16 = 0.0625

1 TTTH, TTHT, THTT, HTTT 4/16 = 0.2500

1 1
2 HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, THTH, HTTH, THHT 6/16 = 0.3750 Sum = 1

3 HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH 4/16 = 0.2500

Number of Heads
4 HHHH 1/16 = 0.0625
Random Variable - Types Concept
Random Variable - Probability Distribution Concept

A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes the likelihood of obtaining all possible
values that a random variable can take. In other words, the values of the Random Variable vary based
on the underlying probability distribution. We usually write Random Variable with capital letter like X.
Then Probability Distribution of X is donate by P(X).
Probability Distribution - Types Concept
Discrete Probability Distribution Concept

A discrete random variable is a variable that

can take on a finite number of distinct values.
For example, coin tosses and counts of events
are discrete functions. These are discrete
distributions because there are no in-between
values.

For discrete probability distribution functions,

each possible value has a non-zero likelihood.
Furthermore, the probabilities for all possible
values must sum to one. Because the total
probability is 1, one of the values must occur
for each opportunity.
Discrete Probability Distribution - Example Concept
Continuous Probability Distribution Concept

Continuous probability functions are also known as probability density

functions. You know that you have a continuous distribution if the variable
can assume an infinite number of values between any two values.
Continuous variables are often measurements on a scale, such as height,
weight, and temperature.

Unlike discrete probability distributions where each particular value has a

non-zero likelihood, specific values in continuous probability distribution
functions have a zero probability. For example, the likelihood of measuring
a temperature that is exactly 32 degrees is zero.

The values of the Continuous PD can be measured and not counted. It will
take infinite amount of time to count all the outcomes of a continuous
variable.
Continuous Probability Distribution - Example Concept

Distance travelled by my car from city A to B

50 kms

50 kms and 450 meters

50 kms 450 meters and 100 cms

50 kms 450 meters 100 cms and 25 mm

For continuous variables, we can become more precise (or sharp) but we cannot count the exact distance,
age or time just the way we count discrete variables. That is why it is a continuous variable.

In other words, we can always find another data point between 2 data points of an infinite variable eg -
between 50 kms and 51 kms there is 50.5 kms. Further between 50 kms and 50.5 kms we can have 50.25
kms and so on.
Continuous Probability Distribution - Representation Concept
Continuous Probability Distribution - Example Concept
Random Variable Concept

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for a Discrete Random Variable

Random Variable - Expected Value Concept

Expected Values of Discrete Random Variables

● The Mean of a Probability Distribution of a Random Variable is a measure of Centrality

● It is a measure that considers both -
○ The values of Random Variable
○ The probabilities of the possible outcomes of Random Variable
● It is the Weighted Average of the possible outcomes of the Random Variable
● The Mean of the Probability Distribution of a Random Variable is called the Expected Value of the
Random Variable (sometimes called the Expectation)
● It is denoted by 𝛍 or E(X)
Expected Value - Example Example

For flipping coin example following is the Cumulative distribution function (Discrete Variable)

X Options Probability [P(X)] CDF 𝛍 = E(X)= ∑x*[P(X)]

(Outcome)

0 TTTT 1/16 = 0.0625 0.0625 0*(0.0625) = 0.00

1 TTTH, TTHT, THTT, HTTT 4/16 = 0.2500 0.3125 1*(0.2500) = 0.25

2 HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, THTH, HTTH, THHT 6/16 = 0.3750 0.6875 2*(0.3750) = 0.75

3 HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH 4/16 = 0.2500 0.9375 3*(0.2500) = 0.75

4 HHHH 1/16 = 0.0625 1.0000 4*(0.0625) = 0.25

Expected Value = E(X) =𝛍 = 2.00

Expected Value - Example for the roll of 2 dice Example

Calculate the following for the roll of 2 dice:

1) Expected Value and

2) Variance and S.D.

1) Expected Value

X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P(X=x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

Expected Value = 2*(1/36)+3*(2/36)+4*(3/36)+5*(4/36)+6*(5/36)+7*(6/36)+8*(5/36)+9*(4/36)+10*(3/36)+11*(2/36)+12*(1/36)

𝛍 = E(X)=
∑x*[P(X)]
= 252/36 = 7
Random Variable - Variance and Standard Deviation Concept
Variance and Standard Deviation (SD) for a Random Variable

● Variance of Random Variable is the Expected Squared Deviation of the random variable from its Mean
(Expected Value).
● This is similar to that of the Variance of a data set or a population
● Probabilities of the values of the random variable are used as weights in the computation of the
expected squared deviation from the mean of a discrete random variable
● The definition of the variance follows. As with a population, we denote the variance of a random
variable by 𝞂 2.
Variance - Example for the roll of 2 dice Example

Calculate the following for the roll of 2 dice:

1) Expected Value and

2) Variance and S.D.

2) Variance =
X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P(X=x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

EV= 𝛍 = E(X)= = 2*(1/36)+3*(2/36)+4*(3/36)+5*(4/36)+6*(5/36)+7*(6/36)+8*(5/36)+9*(4/36)+10*(3/36)+11*(2/36)+12*(1/36)

∑x*[P(X)]

E(X2)= ∑x2i*[P(X)] = 22 x(1/36)+32 x(2/36) + 42 x (3/36) +52 x (4/36) +62 x (5/36) +72 x (6/36) +82 x (5/36) +92 x (4/36) +102 x
(3/36) +112 x (2/36)+122 x (1/36) =

V(X) = = 54.83 (-) 49 = 5.83

E(X ) - [E(X)]2
2
Bernoulli Distribution Concept
Bernoulli Random Variable
● It is the most basic discrete Random Variable Distribution
● Named in the honour of mathematician - Jakob Bernoulli (1654–1705) Bernoulli Distribution
● The basic form of Bernoulli Distribution for Random Variable x where x can only take
2 values (0 and 1) -
○ x = 1 with probability p
○ x = 0 with probability (1 - p) or q
○ Event x = 1 is called ‘Success’ and Event x = 0 is called ‘Failure’
● Outcome of Bernoulli trial can only be either a ‘Success’ or a ‘Failure’
● Bernoulli trial is a single experiment
● Some examples of Bernoulli are - Tossing a coin, Yes/ No, Male/ Female etc.

For any Bernoulli Distribution -

Where -

E(X) - Mean of the outcomes

V(X) - Variance of the outcomes
Bernoulli Distribution - Example Concept

Q - A striker in a game of soccer can shoot with the probability of 0.7. Find the Mean and Variance of the striker in
the game?

Here p = 0.7 and q = 0.3; Mean = E(X) = 1*(0.7) + 0*(0.3) = 0.7; Variance = (0.7)*(0.3) = 0.21

Q - An AI bot has a 0.9 probability of correctly predicting the outcome of an event. What is the Mean and Variance
of the AI bot in prediction?

Here p = 0.9 and q = 0.1; Mean = E(X) = 1*(0.9) + 0*(0.1) = 0.9; Variance = (0.9)*(0.1) = 0.09
Binomial Distribution Concept

Binomial Random Variable

The Binomial distribution represents the probability for 'r' successes of an experiment in 'n' trials, given a success
probability 'p' for each trial at the experiment.
An X (Random Variable) that counts the number of ‘Successes’ in multiple Independent, identical Bernoulli trials is
called a Binomial Random Variable. Thus in Binomial Distribution the experiment is repeated multiple times.
In a single experiment when n = 1, the Binomial distribution is called a Bernoulli distribution.

Properties of Binomial Distribution -

● Experiment consist of n repetition

● Each trial has only 2 possible outcomes
● Probability of Success, denoted p, is the same
for each trial.
● Each trial is independent.
Binomial Distribution - Example Concept

Q - If a coin is tossed 10 times, use binomial find the probability of: (a) Exactly 4 heads (b) At least 7 heads.

Solution - No of trials = n = 10; Probability of head: p = 1/2 and probability of tail, q = 1/2

Probability of exactly 4 heads: Probability of exactly 7 or more heads:

X=4 P(X >= 7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10)

P(x =4) = 10C4 p4 q10-4 = (10!/ (4!x 6!)) × (½)4× (½)6 Use COMBIN in excel to get the value of )

P(x =4) = 210*0.000976563 = 0.205 = (10C7+10C8+10C9+10C10)*(2)10

= 0.1171875 + 0.043945313 + 0.009765625 +

0.000976563= 0.171875
Poisson Distribution Concept

Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution function that is useful for

characterizing events with very low probabilities of occurrence within
some definite time or space. It is applicable in events that have a large
number of rare and independent possible events. It is used to estimate
how many times an event is likely to occur within the given period of
time. Some examples of Poisson Distribution are -

Probability of the occurrence

a) On a toll, a car arrives at a mean rate of 10 per min. What is the
probability of arrival of 50 cars in 1 minute.

b) 2% of the phones manufactured by Samsung are defective, what is the

probability that 10 phones turn defective in a sample of 200.

c) Mc’donalds restaurant has 200 customers coming every evening. What

is the probability that on a day 400 customers turn up Occurence of variable/ unit of time
It is used under the condition when - the no. of trails ‘n’ tends to infinity
the probability of Success ‘p’ tends to zero.

Thus np = 1 i.e. a finite number.

Poisson Distribution Concept

Properties of Poisson Distribution -

● Events are independent and occur at random
● The number of trails is infinitely large
● The variable of interest has a discrete outcome
● Mean = Variance = λ
● np = λ is finite, where λ is constant

Applications of Poisson Distribution - Where -

● Count the number of defects of a finished product λ - is the average number of times an
● Count the number of deaths in a country by any disease or
event occurs
natural calamity
● Count the number of infected plants in the field e - is Euler’s constant (approximately
● Count the number of bacteria in the organisms or the
radioactive decay in atoms 2.718)
● Calculate the waiting time between the events.
Poisson Distribution - Example Concept

1) On a toll, a car arrives at a mean rate of 10 per min. What is the probability of arrival of 15 cars in 1 minute.

Mean = λ = 10. Use =POISSON.DIST(15,10,FALSE) in excel. Answer = 0.034718

2) 2% of the phones manufactured by Samsung are defective, what is the probability that 8 phones turn
defective in a sample of 200.

Mean = λ = 2%. Use =POISSON.DIST(4,2,FALSE) in excel. Answer = 0.090224

3) Mc’donalds restaurant has 200 customers coming every evening. What is the probability that on a day 220
customers turn up?

Mean = λ = 200. Use =POISSON.DIST(220,200,FALSE) in excel. Answer = 0.01021

The Normal Distribution Concept

The Normal Distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is the most important probability distribution in
statistics for independent, random variables. Most people recognize its familiar bell-shaped curve in statistical reports.
The data is symmetrically distributed with no skewness. When plotted on a graph, the data follows a bell shape, with
most values clustering around a central region and tapering off as they go further away from the center.

Why Normal Distribution?

● All kinds of variables in natural and social sciences are

usually or approximately normally distributed. Height, birth
weight, reading ability, job satisfaction, or SAT scores are just
a few examples of such variables.
● Because normally distributed variables are so common, many
statistical tests for inferences are designed for normally
distributed populations.
● It is imperative to understand the properties of normal
distributions to use inferential statistics to compare different
groups and make estimates about populations using samples.
Properties of Normal Distribution (1/2) Concept

Normal Distribution is easy to identify

● Mean = Median = Mode

● Distribution is symmetric about the mean - half the values lie
below the mean and half above the mean
● The normal curve is asymptotic i.e. the curve approaches
x-axis on both the ends but does not meet the x-axis
● Distribution can be defined by 2 parameters - Mean and S.D.
● Mean is the location parameter. It determines where the peak
of the curve is centered. As the mean shifts right the Normal
curve shifts right and as the mean shifts left the curve shift
left.
● S.D. is the scale parameter. It decides how much the curve is
spread or is squeezed. Smaller the S.D. narrow the curve and
larger S.D. widens the curve
Properties of Normal Distribution (2/2) Concept

Empirical Rule or 3 Sigma Rule or the 68-95-99.7 rule applies to Normal curve. It states that -

● Around 68% of values are within 1 S.D. from the mean.

● Around 95% of values are within 2 S.D. from the mean.
● Around 99.7% of values are within 3 S.D. from the mean.
Properties of Normal Distribution (2/2) Concept
Standard Normal Distribution - SND (z-distribution) Concept

● The standard normal distribution, also called the

z-distribution, is a special normal distribution where the
Mean is 0 and the S.D. is 1. Area under curve =1 or 100%.
● Every normal distribution can be created as a version of the
SND that’s stretched or squeezed and moved horizontally
right or left. In other words every Normal Distribution can
be converted into an SND by adjusting the scale and the
central position
● In normal distribution the observations are referred as x. In
the z-distribution they are referred to as z. The normal
distribution is converted into a z-distribution by turning x
values into z scores on the x-axis.
● The z-score tells you how many standard deviation away
from the mean each value lies.
Converting Normal Distribution into SND (z-distribution) Concept

Curve Position or Shape

(in relation to SND)

A (M = 0, SD = 1) Standard Normal Distribution

B (M = 0, SD = 0.5) Squeezed, because SD < 1

C (M = 0, SD = 2) Stretched, because SD > 1

D (M = 1, SD = 1) Shifted right, because M > 0

E (M = –1, SD = 1) Shifted left, because M < 0

● Data points are referred to as x in a normal distribution, they are called z or z-scores in the
z-distribution. A z-score is a standard score that tells you how many standard deviations
away from the mean an individual value (x) lies`
Permutations and Combinations
Fundamentals Principle of Counting
What is the Fundamental Principle of Counting?

The principle states that - if an event can occur in m different ways, and another event can
occur in n different ways, then the total number of occurrences of the events is m × n.

Example - I have 3 books to read and 4 different places I can

read these books - Home, Office, Park and Car. Total number of
ways I can read books are 3 X 4 = 12 (as shown below)

Books/
Home Office Park Car
Places

Book-1 Book1/ Home Book1/ Office Book1/ Park Book1/ Car

Book-2 Book2/ Home Book2/ Office Book2/ Park Book2/ Car

Book-3 Book3/ Home Book3/ Office Book3/ Park Book3/ Car

Understanding Factorial
What are Factorials?
Factorials from 0 till 8
● Factorials was first discovered by Daniel
Bernoulli.
● It is a simple concept which only involves 0! = 1
multiplication. 1! = 1 X 1
● Factorial is a multiplication operation of 2! = 2 x 1 = 2
natural numbers with all the natural 3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6
numbers that are less than it. 4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24
● Used in - Probability, Permutation and
Combination. 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120
● Indicated by '!'. 6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720
● n Factorial is written as
7! = 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 5040
● n! = n × (n-1) × (n-2) × (n-3) × ….× 3 × 2 × 1
● n! = n × (n-1)! 8! = 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 40320
Permutations

● Permutation relates to the act of ‘arranging’ all

the members of a set into some sequence or
order.
● In other words, if the set is already ordered,
then the rearranging of its elements is called the
process of permuting.
● They often arise when different orderings on
certain finite sets are considered.
● Thus Permutations are - ARRANGEMENTS.
● A permutation is the choice of 'r' things from a
set of 'n' things without replacement and
where the order matters.
Combination

● Combination is a way of selecting items from a

collection, such that (unlike permutations) the
order of selection does not matter.
● Combination refers to the combination of 'n'
things taken 'k' at a time without repetition.
● To refer to combinations in which repetition is
allowed, the terms k-selection or k-combination
with repetition are often used.
More examples of Permutations and Combination
Pick 2 letters from - a,b,c,d.
1) In how many different ways can you pick the 2 letters.
ab, ac, ad, ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da, db, dc.

This can be calculated by P(4,2) i.e. 4!/ (4-2)! = (4x3x2x1)/(2x1) = 12

2) What are the different combination of selecting 2 different letters from a,b,c,d.
ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, cd.

This can be calculated by C(4,2) i.e. 4!/ 2! x (4-2)! = (4x3x2x1)/2x(2x1) = 6

In Nutshell -
a) In Permutation - ‘ab’ and ‘ba’ are not same as the ORDER is important
b) In Combination - ‘ab’ and ‘ba’ are same. i.e. order is NOT important
Use of Permutation and Combination
PERMUTATION is used for the list of data (where the order of the data matters)
COMBINATION is used for a group of data (where the order of data doesn’t matter)

Simulator for Permutation Examples Combination Examples

Permutation and Arranging people, digits, numbers, Selection of menu, food, clothes,
Combination alphabets, letters and colours subjects and teams

Picking a team captain, batsmen, Picking three team members from

bowler from a group in that order a group.
Click
Picking 2 favourite colors, in order, Picking 2 colors from the color
from a color card card.

Picking first,second and third place Picking top 3 winners.

Examples of Permutations and Combination

For the word - CODE - write all the Permutations possible.

n
Total Permutations = Pr
n = 4 and r = 4 = 4!/ (4-4)!

C,D,E,O D,C,E,O E,C,D,O O,C,D,E

C,D,O,E D,C,O,E E,C,O,D O,C,E,D
C,E,D,O D,E,C,O E,D,C,O O,D,C,E
C,E,O,D D,E,O,C E,D,O,C O,D,E,C
C,O,D,E D,O,C,E E,O,C,D O,E,C,D
C,O,E,D D,O,E,C E,O,D,C O,E,D,C
Examples of Permutations and Combination

For the word - AGAIN - calculate the number of words which can be made using all the
letters of the word AGAIN?

Words that can be created using 5 letters A,A,G,I,N A,I,A,G,N G,A,A,I,N I,A,A,G,N N,A,A,G,I
A,A,G,N,I A,I,A,N,G G,A,A,N,I I,A,A,N,G N,A,A,I,G
Total Permutations A,A,I,G,N A,I,G,A,N G,A,I,A,N I,A,G,A,N N,A,G,A,I
= n Pr where n = 5 and r = 5 A,A,I,N,G A,I,G,N,A G,A,I,N,A I,A,G,N,A N,A,G,I,A
A,A,N,G,I A,I,N,A,G G,A,N,A,I I,A,N,A,G N,A,I,A,G
Now since there are 2 A in the word A,A,N,I,G A,I,N,G,A G,A,N,I,A I,A,N,G,A N,A,I,G,A
A,G,A,I,N A,N,A,G,I G,I,A,A,N I,G,A,A,N N,G,A,A,I
we will divide by 2! Because the A,G,A,N,I A,N,A,I,G G,I,A,N,A I,G,A,N,A N,G,A,I,A
position of the 2 A’s does not make a A,G,I,A,N A,N,G,A,I G,I,N,A,A I,G,N,A,A N,G,I,A,A
difference in the arrangement. Hence A,G,I,N,A A,N,G,I,A G,N,A,A,I I,N,A,A,G N,I,A,A,G
the final answer = 5!/(5-5)!*2! = 60 A,G,N,A,I A,N,I,A,G G,N,A,I,A I,N,A,G,A N,I,A,G,A
A,G,N,I,A A,N,I,G,A G,N,I,A,A I,N,G,A,A N,I,G,A,A
Examples of Permutations and Combination
In how many ways 4 letter words (no meaning needed) can be drawn from the word -
'NUMBERS'?

Words that can be created using 4 letters Total Permutations

= n Pr where n = 7 and r = 4
= P(7,4)