CAMELLIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRONICS AND COMMUNICATION ENGINEERING

NAME OF TOPIC: 1. Probability basic problem and Bayes Theorem

2. Probability distribution
NAME: DEBDEEP GHOSH

SEMESTER: 3rd
SUBJECT: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
SUBJECT CODE: BSM301
EXAM: CONTINUOUS ASSESSMENT 1 (CA1)
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals
with the occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed from
zero to one. Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict how
likely events are to happen. The meaning of probability is basically the
extent to which something is likely to happen. This is the basic
probability theory, which is also used in the probability distribution,
where you will learn the possibility of outcomes for a random
experiment. To find the probability of a single event to occur, first, we
should know the total number of possible outcomes.
Formula for Probability
The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal to
the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes and the total number of outcomes.

Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable

outcomes/Total Number of outcomes
Markov control problems in engineering

Instrumentation of modern machines, such as planes, rockets and cars allow the sensors in
the machines to collect live data and dynamically take decisions and subsequent actions by
executing algorithms to drive their devices in response to the data that is streaming into
their sensors. For example, a rocket may have to adjust its boosters to compensate for the
prevailing directional changes in wind in order to keep going up and launch a satellite.
These types of decisions and actions, theorised by controlled Markov processes, typically
arise in various fields of engineering, such as, aerospace, civil, electrical, mechanical,
robotics, etc.
 6. A set A is not a subset of a set B if at least one
1. A set is a collection of distinct objects or element of A is not an element of B, and write A * B. For
elements. We enclose the elements by curly example, {1, 2, 5} * {1, 2, 3, 4}.
braces. 7. We say a set A is equal to a set B and write A = B if A
For example, the collection of the two and B have the same elements.
letters H and T is a set and we denote it by 8. The union A ∪ B of A and B consists of elements that
{H,T}. But the collection {H,T,T} is not a set are in A or in B or in both A and B.
(do you see why? think distinct!). Also, For example, if A = {1, 2} and B = {3, 2} then A ∪ B =
order is not important, e.g., {H,T} is the {1, 2, 3}.
same as {T, H}. 9. The intersection A ∩ B of A and B consists of
1. We give convenient names to sets. elements that are in both A and B.
For example, we can give the set {H,T} the For example, if A = {1, 2} and B = {3, 2} then A ∩ B =
name A and write A = {H,T}. {2}.Sets that have no elements in common are called
1. If a is an element of A, we write a ∈ A. For disjoint. For example, if A = {1, 2} and B = {3, 4} then A
example, if A = {1, 2, 3}, then 1 ∈ A. and B are disjoint.
2. If a is not an element of A, we write a /∈ A. 10. The empty set contains no elements and is denoted
For example, if A = {1, 2, 3}, then 13 ∈/ A. by ∅ or by {}. Note that for any set A, ∅ ⊆ A.
3. We say a set A is a subset of a set B if every 11. Given some set, Ω (the Greek letter Omega), and a
element of A is also an element of B, and subset A ⊆ Ω, then the complement of A, denoted by Ac
write A ⊆ B. For example, {1, 2} ⊆ {1, 2, 3, , is the set of all elements in Ω that are not in A.
4}. For example, if Ω = {H,T} and A = {H} then Ac = {T}.
Note that for any set A ⊆ Ω: Ac ∩ A = ∅, A ∪ Ac = Ω, Ω
c = ∅, ∅. c = Ω .
In Statistics, the probability distribution gives the possibility of each outcome of a random
experiment or event. It provides the probabilities of different possible occurrences.
To recall, the probability is a measure of uncertainty of various phenomena. Like, if you
throw a dice, the possible outcomes of it, is defined by the probability. This distribution could
be defined with any random experiments, whose outcome is not sure or could not be
predicted. Let us discuss now its definition, function, formula and its types here, along with
how to create a table of probability based on random variables.
 Probability Distribution of Random Variables
A random variable has a probability distribution, which defines the probability of its unknown
values. Random variables can be discrete (not constant) or continuous or both. That means it
takes any of a designated finite or countable list of values, provided with a probability mass
function feature of the random variable’s probability distribution or can take any numerical
value in an interval or set of intervals. Through a probability density function that is
representative of the random variable’s probability distribution or it can be a combination of
both discrete and continuous.

Two random variables with equal probability distribution can yet vary with respect to their
relationships with other random variables or whether they are independent of these. The
recognition of a random variable, which means, the outcomes of randomly choosing values as
per the variable’s probability distribution function, are called random variates.
The cumulative probability distribution is also
known as a continuous probability distribution.
In this distribution, the set of possible outcomes A distribution is called a discrete probability
can take on values in a continuous range. distribution, where the set of outcomes are
discrete in nature.
For example, a set of real numbers, is a continuous
or normal distribution, as it gives all the possible For example, if a dice is rolled, then all the possible
outcomes of real numbers. Similarly, a set of outcomes are discrete and give a mass of outcomes.
complex numbers, a set of prime numbers, a set of It is also known as the probability mass function.
whole numbers etc. are examples of Normal
Probability distribution. Also, in real-life So, the outcomes of binomial distribution consist
scenarios, the temperature of the day is an example of n repeated trials and the outcome may or may
of continuous probability. Based on these not occur. The formula for the binomial
outcomes we can create a distribution table. A distribution is;
probability density function describes it. The
formula for the normal distribution is;
What is Bayes Theorem?
Bayes theorem, in simple words, determines the conditional probability of an event A
given that event B has already occurred. Bayes theorem is also known as the Bayes Rule or
Bayes Law. It is a method to determine the probability of an event based on the
occurrences of prior events. It is used to calculate conditional probability. Bayes theorem
calculates the probability based on the hypothesis. Now, let us state the theorem and its
proof. Bayes theorem states that the conditional probability of an event A, given the
occurrence of another event B, is equal to the product of the likelihood of B, given A and
the probability of A.
Thank You