8

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Mathematics
Quarter 4 - Module 5
Basic Concepts of Probability

Department of Education ● Republic of the Philippines

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Mathematics- Grade 8
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Quarter 4 –Module 5: Basic Concepts of Probability

First Edition, 2020

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 Mathematics
8
Quarter 4 - Module 5

Basic Concepts of Probability

Department of Education ● Republic of the Philippines

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 This page is intentionally blank

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 Table of Contents

What This Module is About ................................................................................................................... i

What I Need to Know .............................................................................................................................. i
How to Learn from this Module ...........................................................................................................ii
Icons of this Learning Package ...........................................................................................................ii

What I Know ........................................................................................................................................... iii -iv

Lesson 1:
(Probability, Probability Experiment, Outcome, Sample Space and Events)

What I Need to Know...............................................................................................1

What’s New : Let’s Find Out ............................................................................. .. 1-2
What Is It: Discussion ........................................................................................ ...3-4

What I Have Learned: You and I are Meant to be……………………..............5

Lesson 2:
(Calculating Probability, Independent and Dependent Events)

What I Need to Know..............................................................................................6

What Is It: Discussion..........................................................................................6-7

What’s More: Place Me Baby ........................................................................... ....8

What’s New: Let’s Find Out.............................................................................. ....9

What Is It: Discussion.......................................................................................10-11

What’s more: Dependent or Independent? .................................................... ...12

What I Have Learned: Solve me!……………………………………………....13

Summary..............................................................................................................................14
Assessment: (Post-Test)....................................................................................................15
Key to Answers.........................................................................................................................16-17
Reference.............................................................................................................................17

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What This Module is about:

This module is to guide a student to understand probability leading to its richer

application in the real world. It encourages students to discover the concepts of probability by
themselves through the different activities which can be answered individually. The module
has two lessons, pacing of the lessons depends on the students’ needs and learning
competencies.

What I Need to Know

At the end of this module, you should be able to:

1. Illustrates an experiment, outcome, sample space and event. (M8GE-IVf-1)

2. finds the probability of a simple event (M8GE-IVh-1)

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How to Learn from this Module
To achieve the objectives cited above, you are to do the following:
• Take your time reading the lessons carefully.
• Follow the directions and/or instructions in the activities and exercises diligently.
• Answer all the given tests and exercises.

Icons of this Module

What I Need to This part contains learning objectives that

Know are set for you to learn as you go along the
module.

What I know This is an assessment as to your level of

knowledge to the subject matter at hand,
meant specifically to gauge prior related
knowledge
What’s In This part connects previous lesson with that
of the current one.

What’s New An introduction of the new lesson through

various activities, before it will be presented
to you

What is It These are discussions of the activities as a

way to deepen your discovery and under-
standing of the concept.

What’s More These are follow-up activities that are in-

tended for you to practice further in order to
master the competencies.

What I Have Activities designed to process what you

Learned have learned from the lesson

What I can do These are tasks that are designed to show-

case your skills and knowledge gained, and
applied into real-life concerns and situations.

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 What I Know

Multiple Choice:

Direction: Read and answer the questions below. Select the letter of the best answer from the
given choices.

1. Which of the following DOES NOT belong to the group?

a. Chance c. Possibilities
b. Interpretation d. Uncertainty

2. All the possible outcomes that can occur when a coin is tossed twice are listed in the box.
What is the probability of having a head? HH TH
a. ¼ c. 3/4 TT HT
b. ½ d. 1

3. A number cube is rolled. What is the probability of getting a number that is not 3?
a. 0/6 or 0 b. 1/6 c. 5/6 d. 6/6 or 1

4. Which of the following is TRUE?

a. Answering a true/false-type question has one possible outcome.
b. Flipping a coin thrice has 3 possible outcomes.
c. The probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed can be expressed as 1/2,
0.5 or 50%.
d. The probability of rolling 7 in a die is 1/7.

5. A glass jar contains 40 red, green, blue and yellow marbles. The probability of drawing a
1
single green marble at random is . What does this mean?
5
a. There are 5 green marbles in the glass jar.
b. There are 8 green marbles in the glass jar.
c. There are more green marbles than the others.
d. There is only one green marble in the glass jar.

6. There are four teams in a basketball tournament. Team A has 25% chance of winning.
Team B has the same chance as Team D which has 5% more than team A. Team C has
half the chance of winning as team B. Which of the following has the correct table of
probabilities for winning the tournament?

a.
Team A B C D
Probability of 25% 30% 15% 30%
winning

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 b.
Team A B C D
Probability of 25% 20% 20% 35%
winning

c.
Team A B C D
Probability of 25% 15% 15% 45%
winning

d.
Team A B C D
Probability of 25% 15% 10% 50%
winning

7. Jun rolls two dice. The first die shows a 5. The second die rolls under his desk and he
cannot see it. NOW, what is the probability that both dice show 5?
a. 1/36 b. 1/6 c. 9/36 d. 1/3

8. A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of getting two heads and one tail?
a. 1/3 b. 3/8 c. 1/2 d. 5/8

9. In a School of 100 girls, 40% of the girls like music, and 12% of the girls like music and
dance. What percent of those that like dance?
a. 28% b. 30% c. 48 % d. 72%

10. A box contains 5 green pencils and 7 yellow pencils. Two pencils are chosen at random
from the box without replacement. What is the probability they are both yellow?
a. 7/22 b. 49/144 c. 6/11 d. 7/12

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 Lesson Probability, Probability
Experiment, Outcomes,
1 Sample Space and events

What I Need to Know

Have you ever heard a weatherman say there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow or a
volleyball referee tells a team there is a 50/50 chance of getting a head on a coin toss to
determine which team starts the game? These are probability statements. In this lesson, you
are going to investigate probability and how likely it is that some events will occur;

What’s New
Let’s Find Out!
Suppose you and your friend are about to play a game using the spinner shown here:

Rules of the game:

1. Decide who will go first.

2. Each person picks a color. Both players cannot pick the same color.
3. Each person takes a turn spinning the spinner and recording what color the spinner stops
on. The winner is the person whose color is the first to happen 10 times.
Play the game, and remember to record the color the spinner stops on for each spin.
Result /Number of times 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
You

Your Friend

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Exercises 1–4
1. Which color was the first to occur 10 times?

2. Do you think it makes a difference who goes first to pick a color?

3. Which color would you pick to give you the best chance of winning the game?

Why would you pick that color?

4. Below are three different spinners. On which spinner is the green likely to win,
unlikely to win, and equally likely to win?

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 What is it
Discussion:
What you had done is a chance experiment; dealing with chance of occurrences is Probability.
What is Probability?
Probability is the chance that something will happen.
Events cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can say,
“How likely they are to happen.”

Ways of Showing Probability

Probability goes from 0 (impossible)
to 1 (certain):

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

For example, consider a box that contains only red cubes. If you were to select from the box,
you are certain to pick a red one. We say that an event that is certain to happen has a
probability of 1. If we were to reach into the same bag of cubes, it is impossible to select a
yellow cube. An impossible event has a probability of 0.

It is often shown as a decimal or fraction. Example: the probability of getting a "Head"

when tossing a coin:
• As a decimal: 0.5
• As a fraction: 1/2
• As a percentage: 50%
• Or sometimes like this: 1-in-2

Probability Experiment is a chance process that leads to a

well-defined result called an outcome.

Examples: Flipping a coin

Rolling a die

Outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment.

Experiment Outcome
Flipping a coin Head (H) Tail (T)
Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

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 Sample space is the set of all the possible outcomes or
sample points.

Sample point is just one of the possible outcomes.

Experiment Sample space Sample Point

Flipping a coin HH, HT, TH, TT HH
Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 5
Flipping a coin and a die H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6,
simultaneously T3
T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6
13 diamonds, 13 Hearts, 13
Spades, 13 Cubs Queen of Hearts
Drawing a card from a deck
(Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,
10, Jack, Queen, King)

Note: “Queen” is not a sample point because there are four Queens which are four different
sample points in a deck of cards.

Event = is any set of one or more outcomes satisfying some

given conditions. Event is a subset of sample space

Examples:
a. Getting a TTT when flipping a coin thrice
b. Choosing a “Queen” from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Queens)
c. Getting an “odd number” (1, 3, or 5) when rolling a die

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_______
What I have learned
You and I are meant to be!

Use the basic concepts of probability to identify the following.

{Probability, Probability Experiment, Outcome, Sample Space, Sample Point, Event}

______________________ 1. 5/6

______________________ 2. Tail

______________________ 3. 50%

______________________ 4. Right, Wrong

______________________ 5. KING of Spades

______________________ 6. Rolling an odd number (1, 3 or 5)

______________________ 7. Flipping a 10-peso coin five times

______________________ 8. Getting a head in a single toss of coin

______________________ 9. The chance that something will happen

______________________ 10. The result of a single trial of an experiment

______________________ 11. Tossing a coin and rolling a die simultaneously

______________________ 12 Set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

______________________ 13. Guessing the number of marbles in a container

______________________ 14. Choosing an ACE from a deck of standard cards

______________________ 15. A chance process which leads to well –defined

results

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 Lesson Calculating Probability,
Dependent and Independent
2 Events

What I Need to Know

In this lesson, you are expected to understand probability of an event, dependent and
independent events and finding probability of dependent and independent events.

What is it
Discussion:
So how do we calculate probability?

Picture Source: Grade 8 Mathematics Teachers Guide pp. 615

REMEMBER:

The probability of an event, P (event), is represented by a number between

0 and 1. When a probability falls in between these numbers, it can be expressed in
several ways: as a fraction, a decimal, or a percent. The line below shows the
probabilities 0, ½ and 1. The positions are also aligned to a description of impossible,
unlikely, equally likely, likely, and certain.

Picture Source: Grade 8 Mathematics Teachers Guide pp. 614

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 Impossible Unlikely Equally Likely Likely Certain

Some events are Some events are Some events are

Some events less likely to classified as more likely to Some events
are happen. These equally likely to happen. These are certain.
impossible. events have a happen or to not events have a These events
These events probability that happen. These probability that have a
have a is less than 0.5. events have a is greater than probability
probability It could be probability that 0.5. It could be of 1.
of 0. describe as is 0.5 or 1/2. describe as
unlikely to occur. likely to occur.

Example: Example: Example: Example:

Example:
You have a You have a bag You have a bag You have a
You have a bag
bag with two that contains 8 with one orange bag with two
that contains 8
orange orange marbles marbles and one orange
orange marbles
marbles, and and 2 pink pink marble, and marbles, and
and 2 pink
you select marbles, and you randomly you select
marbles, and
one at you randomly pick one. one at
you randomly
random. pick one. It is Selecting an random.
pick one. It is
Selecting a unlikely to select orange marble is Selecting an
likely to select
pink marble a pink marble. equally likely to orange
an orange
is an happen or not to marble is an
marble.
impossible happen. certain event.
event.

Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: Explanation:

There is no Even though is Since exactly You will

Even though is
way to select not impossible half of the bag is not certain that always get an
a pink marble that you will get made up of you will get an orange
if there are a pink marble, a orange marble orange marble, marble if
no pink pink marble and exactly half there are only
an orange
marbles in would not be is pink marble, marble would be orange
the bag. selected very there is 50/50 selected most of marbles in
often because chance (equally the time the bag.
there are many likely) selecting because there
more orange an orange and are many orange
marbles than there is equally marbles in the
pink in the bag. likely) not bag.
selecting an
orange marble.

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 What’s More
Place Me Baby!

1. Decide where each event would be located on the scale above. Place the letter for
each event on the appropriate place on the probability scale.
Event:
A. You will see a live dinosaur on the way home from school today.
B. A solid rock dropped in the water will sink.
C. A round disk with one side red and the other side yellow will land yellow side up
when flipped.
D. A spinner with four equal parts numbered 1–4 will land on the 4 on the next spin.
E. Your full name will be drawn when a full name is selected randomly from a bag
containing the full names of all of the students in your class.
F. A red cube will be drawn when a cube is selected from a bag that has five blue
cubes and five red cubes.
G. Tomorrow the temperature outside will be −250 degrees.

2. Solve: When a fair die (cube with numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is thrown, what is the
probability of getting?

1. number 2

2. A number that is less than 7

3. A number that is greater than 6

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 What’s New
Let’s Find Out!
Sometimes, getting an event affects the outcome of another event. Take a look at
these examples:

1. Five pink lollipops are left in a jar of 40 different colored lollipops.

a. What is the probability that you will get a pink lollipop?

How did you get your answer?

b. What are your chances of getting a pink one when you pick again?

c. Do you have the same answer? Why?

d. How many lollipops are now in the jar? How many pink lollipops are there?

2. Flipping a Coin
a. When you flip a coin, what is the probability of heads landing up?

b. If you flip it again, what is the probability of getting tails?

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 What is it
Discussion:
In Number 1, getting the next lollipop is affected by the result of the first attempt.
Every time you get a piece of lollipop from a jar, the chance of getting a pink one will change.
These are called dependent events.

Dependent Events are events in which one event affects the

outcome of another.

Example 1: Candies in a Jar

2 blue and 3 red candies are in a jar. What are the chances of getting a blue
2
candy? The chance is . But after taking one out the chances change! So the next
5
2 1
time: if we got a red candy before, then the chance of a blue candy next is or . If we
4 2
1
got a blue candy before, then the chance of a blue candy next is .
4

Note: if we replace the candies in the jar each time, then the chances do not change and the
events are independent:

• With Replacement: the events are Independent (the chances don't change)
• Without Replacement: the events are Dependent (the chances change)

Example 2: Drawing 2 QUEENS from a Deck

Event A is drawing a QUEEN first, and Event B is drawing a QUEEN second. For
the first card the chance of drawing a QUEEN is 4 out of 52 (there are 4 QUEENS in
4
a deck of 52 cards): P (A) = , but after removing a QUEEN from the deck the
52
probability of the 2nd card drawn is less likely to be a QUEEN (only 3 of the 51 cards
3
left are QUEEN): P (B|A) = .
51

And so:
4 3 12 1
P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B|A) = x = =
52 51 2652 221

So the chance of getting 2 QUEENS is 1 in 221, or about 0.5%

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 In Number 2, the probability of getting heads up for the first tossed does not affect the
probability of getting tails for the second tossed. The two events do not affect each
other. They are independent events.

Independent Events are two events which do not affect each

other.

Example 1: Tossing a 5-peso Coin

Each toss of a coin is a perfect isolated thing. What it did in the past will not
1
affect the current tossed. The chance is simply , 1-in-2 or 0.5 or 50%, just like any
2
toss of a coin. So each toss is an Independent event.

Two or More Events

We can calculate the chances of two or more independent events
by multiplying the chances.

Example 2: Probability of 3 tails in a Row

1
For each toss of a coin a tail has a probability of 0.5 or :
2
T 0.5 1
or 50%
2
TT 0.5x0.5 =0.25 1 1 1
x = or 25%
2 2 4
TTT 0.5x0.5x0.5 = 0.125 1 1 1 1
x x = or 12.5%
2 2 2 8

1
And so the chance of getting 3 Tails in a row is or 0.125 or 12.5%
8

So each toss of a coin has a ½ chance of being tails, but lots of tails in a
row is unlikely.

Example 3: Why is it unlikely to get, say, 7 tails in a row, when each toss of a coin has
a ½ chance of being tails?

Because we are asking two different questions:

Question 1: What is the probability of 7 tails in a row?

Answer: 1/2×1/2×1/2×1/2×1/2×1/2×1/2 = 0.0078125 (less than 1%)

Question 2: When we have just got 6 tails in a row, what is the probability that the
next toss is also a tail?
Answer: ½, as the previous tosses don't affect the next toss

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 What’s more
Dependent or Independent?

Determine if each event is INDEPENDENT or DEPENDENT

____ 1. Rolling two number cubes

a. Independent Events b. Dependent Events

____ 2. Selecting playing cards from a deck without replacing

a. Independent Events b. Dependent Events

____ 3. Rolling a number cube, flipping a coin, picking a card

a. Independent Events b. Dependent Events

____ 4. Lining up 3 monkeys in Mrs. Jones’ room

a. Independent Events b. Dependent Events

____ 5. Selecting two red skittles from a bag, if you eat them as you select

a. Independent Events b. Dependent Events

____ 6. Mr. Alex needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class
of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room.
He then chooses a second student from those still seated.

a. Independent Events b. Dependent Events

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 What I have learned
Solve Me!
Solve the following:

1. Two cards are drawn from the top of a well-shuffled deck. What is the probability that
they are both black aces?

2. A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability that head and tail show alternately.

3. A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting at least two heads.

4. A bag contains 3 red marbles and 4 blue marbles.

Two marbles are drawn at random without replacement.
If the first marble drawn is red, what is the probability the second marble is blue?

5. Two cards are chosen at random without replacement from a pack of 52 playing
cards. If the first card chosen is an Ace, what is the probability the second card
chosen is a King?

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Summary

This module was about the Basic Concepts of Probability. In this module, you were
encouraged to discover by yourselves the definition of the basic concepts of Probability. Your
knowledge and computational skills gained in this module will help you solve real life problems
involving probabilities of an event which would lead you to make better decisions in life and to
perform practical tasks to the best of what you can.

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 Post- Assessment Test

1. Which of the following is an experiment in which results are observed?

a. Head,Tail b. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
c. Rolling an odd number d. Guessing the number of marbles in a jar.

2. A coin is tossed thrice. What is the probability of having two heads and a tail?
a. 1/8 b. 1/2 c. 3/8 d. 1

3. A die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number that is greater than 6?
a. 0/6 or 0 b.1/6 c. 5/6 d. 6/6 or 1

4. Which of the following is FALSE?

a. The probability of rolling 3 in a die is 1/6
b. Flipping a coin thrice has 3 possible outcomes.
c. Answering a true/false type question has two possible outcomes.
d. The probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed once can be expressed as
½, 0.5 or 50%.

5. A bottle contains white, blue, brown and red coated candies. The P(white) =1/10,
P(blue) =4/15, P(brown) = 7/30, and P(yellow) = 2/5. How many yellow candies are in
the bottle?
a. 7 b. 8 c.12 d. 30
6. A glass jar contains 80 red, orange, yellow, and green plastic chips. If the probability
of drawing at random a single ORANGE chip is 1/8, what does this mean?
a. There are 8 orange chips in the glass jar.
b. There are 10 orange chips in the glass jar. *
c. There are more orange chips than the others.
d. There is only one orange plastic chip in the jar.

7. Jun rolls two dice. The first die shows a 2. The second die rolls under his desk and
he cannot see it. What is the probability that both dice show 2?
a. 1/36 b. 1/6 c. 9/36 d. 1/3

8. 45% of the children in a school have a dog, 30% have a cat, and 18% have a dog and
a cat. What percent of children neither have a dog alnorso have a cat?
a. 40% b. 43% c. 60% d. 75%
9. Two cards are drawn from the top of a well-shuffled deck. What is the probability that
they are both Diamonds?
a. 1/17 b. 1/16 c. 1/13 d. 2/17
10. A code consists of a digit chosen from 0 to 9 followed by a letter of the alphabet. What
is the probability the code is 9Z?
a. 1/260 b. 1/36 c. 1/18 d. 9/65

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 Key to Answers

Pre- Assessment Test:

1. Answer: B All the words refer to Probability except Interpretation
2. Answer: C Three out of the 4 outcomes has three heads.
3. Answer: C 1 – 1/6 = 5/6
4. Answer: C The probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed can be expressed
as 1/2, 0.5 or 50%.
5. Answer: B
6. Answer: A Team A = 25%, Team B = Team D + 25% +5%,
Team C = 100 – (25+30+30) = 15Therefore, 25% + 30% + 15% + 30% = 100%
7. Answer: B since we already know that one of the dice shows a 5, the probability of
getting a 5 in the other die is 1/6.
8. Answer: B 3/8
9. Answer: D 72%
10. Answer: A 7/22

Lesson 1:
What’s new What I Have Learned Lesson 2 what’s more
Exercise 1-4 1. Probability 1. A N S : A
1. Answers will vary, 2. Sample point 2. A N S : B
but green is the most 3. Probability 3. A N S : A
likely. 4. Sample space 4. A N S : B
2. Yes, because the 5. Sample point 5. A N S : B
person who goes 6. Sample point 6. A N S : B
first could pick green. 7.Experiment
3. Green, it has the 8. Event
largest section on 9. Probability
the spinner. 10.Outcome
4. Spinner B 11. Experiment
12. Sample space
13. Experiment
14. Event
15. Experiment

Lesson 2:
What’s more What’s new What I Have Learned
1. 1 a. 5/40 or 1/8 1. 2/8 or ¼
By getting the ratio of the 2. 1/8
favorable outcome an d 3. P(at least two
the total number of heads) = 4/8 or ½
lollipops in the jar 4. 4/6 or 2/3
b. 4/39 5. P(A) = 4/51
c. No, because
the lollipop was
2.P(event) = 1/6 not returned in
3.P(event) = 6/6 or 1 the jar.
4. P(event) = 0/6 or 0 d. 39 all and 4
pink lollipops
2 a. ½
b. ½

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Post- Assessment Test

1. Answer: D. Guessing the number of marbles in a jar is the only experiment in the
choices
2. Answer: C. Three out of the 8 outcomes have two heads and a tail.
3. Answer: A, A die has 6 faces only; therefore, it has no side which is greater than 6.
4. Answer: B flipping a coin thrice has 8 possible outcomes.
5. Answer: C 2/5 x 6/6 = 12/30
6. Answer: B 10/80 = 1/8
7. Answer: B Since we already know that one of the dice shows a 2, the probability of
getting a 2 in the other die is 1/6
8. Answer B
9. Answer A
10. Answer A

References:
Sergio C. Custodio, Interactive Mathematics Grade 8.pp. 290 – 303, Innovative Educational
Materials Inc.

Mathematics Grade 8 Teachers Guide, quarter 4 Module 11 Introduction to Probability, pp.

595-639

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-conditional.html

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

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