Microsoft PowerPoint 01 IT Risk Management Program
Microsoft PowerPoint 01 IT Risk Management Program
Insight
PHASE 3
Risk Risk
Governance Identification Monitor, Communicate, and
Respond to IT Risk
Risk
Response
Risk
Assessment
3.1 3.2
Monitor IT Risks Communicate
and Develop Risk IT Risk
Responses Priorities
PHASE 2
Start Here Identify and Assess IT Risk
PHASE 1
Identify and Assess IT
1.1 1.2 Risk:
1. Acceptable Risk Thresholds
Review IT Risk 2. Risk Register*
Fundamentals and 3. Prioritized List of IT Risks
Governance:
Use the tools and activities in each phase
1. Maturity Assessment
to create a comprehensive, customized
2. Stakeholder Map program manual for the ongoing
3. IT Risk Council management of IT risk.
Charter
Benefit from industry-leading best practices
OUTCOMES:
Drivers of Formalized Risk Management: This section will provide you with a strong risk
management foundation which will be valuable
when building your IT risk management program.
Threat An event that can create a negative outcome (e.g. hostile cyber/physical attacks, human errors).
A weakness that can be taken advantage of in a system (e.g. weakness in hardware, software, business
Vulnerability processes).
Risk The systematic application of principles, approaches, and processes to the tasks of identifying and
assessing risks, and then planning and implementing risk responses. This provides a disciplined
Management environment for proactive decision-making (M_o_R, 2007).
Distinct from a risk event, a scenario is an abstract profile of risk. It represents a common group of risks.
Risk Category For example, you can group certain types of risks under the risk category of IT Operations Risks.
A specific occurrence of an event that falls under a particular risk category. For example, a phishing
Risk Event attack is a risk event that falls under the risk category of IT Security Risks.
An organization’s attitude towards risk taking, which determines the amount of risk that it considers
Risk Appetite acceptable. Risk appetite also refers to an organization’s willingness to take on certain levels of exposure
to risk, which is influenced by the organization’s capacity to financially bear risk.
(ERM) – A strategic business discipline that supports the achievement of an organization’s objectives by
Enterprise Risk addressing the full spectrum of organizational risks and managing the combined impact of those risks as
Management an interrelated risk portfolio (RIMS 2015)1.
Effective IT risk management is possible with or without ERM
Whether or not your organization has ERM, integrating your IT risk management program with the
business is possible.
Most IT departments find themselves in one of these two organizational frameworks for managing IT risk:
• Risk Decision-
Making Authority Senior Leadership Team Senior Leadership Team
• Final
Accountability
• Risk Governance
• Risk Prioritization & ERM
Communication
IT Risk Management
• Risk Identification
• Risk Assessment IT Risk Management
• Risk Monitoring
Pro: IT’s risk management responsibilities are Pro: IT is free to create its own IT risk council
defined (assessment schedules, escalation and develop customized processes that serve
and reporting procedures). its unique needs.
Con: IT may lack autonomy to implement IT Con: Lack of clear reporting procedures and
risk management best practices. mechanisms to share accountability with the
business.
IT risk management framework walks you through each step
to achieve risk readiness
Optimize Risk
IT Risk Management
Engage
Management Framework Stakeholder
Risk Governance Processes Participation
Risk Identification
Communication
Manage Measure the Utilize Risk Compile
Stakeholders Success of Identification IT-Related
the Program Frameworks Risks
Business
Objectives
Establish Establish
Monitoring Thresholds for
Responsibilities Unacceptable
Monitoring Risk
An organization’s success is linked to the effectiveness of business operations and processes. Therefore, IT is an enabler of the
organization’s strategic vision and thus, any risk that adversely affects IT will adversely affect the business.
• For example, downed power lines could mean that critical business apps are offline if the organization has not anticipated
this event and built appropriate contingency plans. This could lead to lost revenue. IT risk relates to almost all aspects of
the business.
Therefore, not having an IT risk management program in place can put a financial strain on the entire organization, not just IT.
1 COBIT5
Understand the four principles of IT risk management
Principles of IT Risk Management Tools and Templates
1 Business alignment
IT risk management must:
(1) reflect business priorities,
(2) be communicated in business terms, and
Risk Report
action.
3 Cost-benefit analysis
Risk-taking is neither inherently good nor bad. Determining
which risks to accept and which risk responses to invest in
requires a careful calculation of costs and benefits that must
Risk Costing
Tool
reflect the goals and risk appetite of the organization.
4 Ongoing
Risk management is a program, not a project – there is no
completion date. The IT threat landscape will not wait for you
to catch up, so constant monitoring, identification, and
assessment is necessary for you to avoid falling behind.
Build a program manual as the cornerstone of your risk
management program
Risk Management Program Manual
Use Risk Management Program Manual to document and communicate how IT risks are managed
within your IT department.
Consolidating all IT risk-related documentation from multiple risk owners will make it easier to
manage risks year after year.
2 Risk Event Action Plans for each risk event This central risk file should only be
accessible by the IT risk council. This
ensures governance around risk
3 Annual or bi-annual Risk Reports management and ensures that other
individuals are not bypassing the IT risk
council to add risks to the risk register
4 The Risk Register or request funding from senior
stakeholders to mitigate a risk.
ACTIVITIES: OUTCOMES:
A Governance D Monitoring & Reporting 3. The Risk Management Program Manual provides
B Identification E Response Development sample current process practices that describe an
optimized maturity level for each process (i.e.
C Assessment
process best practices). Use these sample
practices if they reflect your own, or revise them to
describe your current state.
Instructions:
Determine how your organization fits the criteria listed below. Descriptions and examples do not
have to match your organization perfectly.
Risk-tolerant Risk-averse
Risk-tolerant organizations embrace the potential of Risk-averse organizations prefer consistent, gradual
accelerating growth and the attainment of business growth and goal-attainment by embracing a more
objectives by taking calculated risks. cautious stance towards risk.
The other component of risk culture is the degree to which risk factors into decision-making.
Risk-conscious Unaware
Risk-conscious organizations place a high priority on Organizations that are largely unaware of the impact
being aware of all risks impacting business of risk generally believe there are few major risks
objectives, regardless of whether they choose to impacting business objectives and choose to invest
accept or respond to those risks. resources elsewhere.
Insight
Organizations typically fall in the middle of these spectrums. While risk culture will vary depending on the industry and
maturity of the organization, an organizational culture with a balanced risk appetite that is extremely risk conscious is
able to make creative, dynamic decisions with reasonable limits placed on risk-related decision-making.
Develop goals for the IT risk management program
Maturity assessment
Instructions:
c) Baseline measurement.
d) Target measurement.
e) Actual measurements at various
A ctionable
Objectives become actionable when specific initiatives
designed to achieve the objective are identified.
T ime-Bound
An objective without a timeline can be put off indefinitely.
Create a strict time frame for measuring success.
Identify stakeholders and map them according to their influence over, and interest
in, IT risk management
Manage
Create a stakeholder map Stakeholders
Instructions:
Relevant stakeholders can
1. Develop a list of stakeholders.
include individuals, groups, or
entire business units. Meet their Key • A stakeholder is anyone affected by a
Influence of stakeholders
decision and interested in its outcome
needs stakeholder (M_o_R, 2007).
Vendor
ITSC Management
Office Interest of stakeholders
Accountable Stakeholders who are held responsible for 2. For each activity, assign each stakeholder a letter.
failure or take credit for success. 3. There must be an accountable party for each
Consulted activity (every activity must have an “A”).
Stakeholders whose opinions are sought.
4. For activities that do not apply to a particular
Informed Stakeholders who receive updates. stakeholder, leave the space blank.
5. Once the chart is complete, copy/paste it into section
4.1 of the Risk Management Program Manual.
(Continued): Assign risk management accountabilities and responsibilities to key
stakeholders
Complete RACI chart
Risk
Stakeholder Risk Risk Risk Identify Cost-Benefit
Monitoring Decision-
Coordination Identification Thresholds Assessment Responses Analysis
Making
ITRC A R I R R R A C
ERM C I C I I I I C
CIO I A A A A A I R
CRO I R C I R
CFO I R C I R
CEO I R C I A
Business
Units I C C C
IT I I I I I I R C
PMO C C C
PHASE 3
Risk Risk
Governance Identification Monitor, Communicate, and
Respond to IT Risk
Risk
Response
Risk
Assessment
3.1 3.2
Monitor IT Risks Communicate
and Develop Risk IT Risk
Responses Priorities
PHASE 1 PHASE 2
Identify and Assess IT Risk
Review IT Risk Fundamentals
and Governance
2.1 2.2
1.1 1.2 Identify IT Assess and
Risks Prioritize IT Risks
✓ 1. Maturity Assessment
✓ 2. Stakeholder Map
ACTIVITIES: OUTCOMES:
Instructions:
1. Reach out to key business stakeholders identified in exercise 1.2.6
Organizations that were able to
to participate in risk identification exercises.
engage the business in risk
2. If they are unable to attend, request that they review your
79% identification were 79% more
completed risk register and provide feedback. successful in identifying all
3. Document participants in section 5.1 of the Risk Management risks than organizations where
Program Manual. business participation was
minimal.
All business units rely on the services and technologies that IT Obtaining business involvement when identifying
provides. They likely possess alternative perspectives on: risk is important because it is often a pre-cursor to
future business involvement during the risk
assessment and risk response phases.
1. The value that IT provides to the business.
2. The corresponding business risk associated with the
inability of IT to support business activities. Executive Participation
’s risk categories are consistent with a risk identification method called Risk Prompting.
A risk prompt list is a list that categorizes risks into types or areas. The nine risk categories encapsulate the services,
activities, responsibilities, and functions of most IT departments. Use these categories and the example risk scenarios
provided as prompts to guide brainstorming and organize risks. Risk Event: Specific threats and vulnerabilities that
fall under a particular risk scenario. Organizations
Risk Scenario: An abstract profile representing are able to identify anywhere between 1 and 20
common risk groups that are more specific than events for each scenario. See the Appendix of the
risk categories. Typically, organizations are able Risk Management Program Manual for a list of risk
to identify 2–5 scenarios for each category. event examples.
Review nine risk categories and add risk scenarios to the examples provided.
Operations Risks
Software Risks
Hardware Risks
• Enterprise architecture • Software implementation errors
• Hardware configuration errors • Software configuration
• Technology evaluation &
• Hardware maintenance errors • Software maintenance
selection
• Hardware performance • Software performance
• Capacity planning
• Theft • Software obsolescence
• Operational errors
• Damage/destruction
• Hardware obsolescence
Personnel Risks
Project Risks
Data Risks
• Project scoping • Data theft
• Project quality • IT staffing • Data integrity
• Project time over-runs • IT skills and experience • Data confidentiality
• Project cost over-runs • Data availability
Disaster & Business
Continuity Risks
Security Risks
Compliance &
Vendor Risks
• Regulatory compliance
• Vendor selection • Acts of nature (hurricane, etc.)
• Malware
• Vendor management • Utility performance
• Externally originated attack
• Contract termination • Industrial action
• Internally originated attack
• System failure
Identify risk events
Whiteboard
(Optional) Augment the risk event list using
alternative processes
Utilize Risk
Augment the risk event list using COBIT 5 processes Identification
Frameworks
Explore alternative identification techniques to incorporate external factors and avoid “groupthink.”
Note: Employing either of these techniques will lengthen an already time-consuming process. Only consider these
techniques if you have concerns regarding the homogeneity of the ideas being generated, or if select individuals are
dominating the exercise.
The finalized risk event list must be inputted into the Risk Register Tool to prepare for risk
assessment.
Instructions:
1. Transcribe the risk event list from the whiteboard into the Risk Register Tool.
2. Disseminate the list to key stakeholders who were unable to participate and solicit their feedback.
• Consult the RACI chart located in section 4.1 of the Risk Management Program Manual.
3. Incorporate feedback and finalize the risk event list.
4. Select an individual from the ITRC to copy a finalized risk event list into the Risk Register Tool.
Phase 2 (Section 2): Assess and Prioritize IT Risks
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3
ACTIVITIES: OUTCOMES:
2.2.1 Determine the threshold for
(un)acceptable risk X Business-approved thresholds for
unacceptable risk
2.2.2 Create a financial impact assessment ✓
scale
2.2.3 Select a technique to measure
reputational cost Completed Risk Register Tool with
risks prioritized according to severity
2.2.4 Create a probability scale
2.2.5 Risk severity level assessment
2.2.6 Document the proximity of the risk
event $ Expected cost calculations for high-
priority risks
In this section, you will be prioritizing your IT risks according to their risk severity, which is a reflection of
their expected cost.
60%
risk (%)
Explain that IT has done its job in informing the business about the relevant risks that the organization is exposed to.
Communicating your risk assessments emphasizes IT’s responsibility to protect corporate assets, but warning the
business shows IT’s proactive due diligence.
If business executives still won’t provide the necessary information to update your initial risk assessments,
IT should approach business unit leaders and lower-level management. Lean on strong relationships
forged over time between IT and business managers or supervisors to obtain any additional information.
recommends a 2-level approach to risk assessment
Review the two levels of risk assessment offered in this blueprint.
1
Negligible Negligible
Assess all risk events
Moderate
identified in Phase 1. Low Low
Units of measurement:
Use customized probability Moderate X Moderate =
and impact “levels.”
High High
Time required: 1–5 Chart risk events according to
minutes per risk event. risk severity as this allows you to
Very High Very High
organize and prioritize IT risks.
Assess all of your identified risk events with a risk severity-level assessment.
• By creating a probability and impact assessment scale divided into 3–9 “levels” (sometimes referred to as “buckets”),
you can evaluate every risk event quickly, while being confident that risks are being assessed accurately.
• In the following activities, you will create probability and impact scales that align with your organizational risk appetite
and tolerance.
• Severity-level assessment is a “first pass” of your risk list, revealing your organization’s most severe IT risks, which
can be assessed in greater detail by incorporating expected cost into your evaluation.
(Continued) recommends a 2-level approach to risk assessment
2
Only assess high-priority
risks revealed by severity-level
assessment. 15% X $100,000 = $15,000
Units of measurement: Expected cost is useful for
Use actual probability values conducting cost-benefit analysis
(%) and impact costs ($). and comparing IT risks to non-IT
Medium High risks and other budget priorities
Time required: 10–20 minutes
per risk event. for the business.
Instructions:
Unacceptable
There are times when the business needs to know about IT risks with
high expected costs.
$100,000
Create an expected cost threshold that defines what constitutes an
acceptable and unacceptable risk for the organization. This figure should Impact
be a concrete dollar value. In the next exercises, you will build risk impact X
and probability scales with this value in mind, ensuring that “high” or Probability
“extreme” risks are immediately communicated to senior leadership.
Acceptable
Do not consider IT budget restrictions when developing this number. The
acceptable risk threshold should reflect the business’ tolerance/appetite
for risk (review activity 1.2.3 if necessary).
• This threshold is typically based on the organization’s ability to absorb
financial losses, and its tolerance/appetite towards risk.
• If your organization has ERM, adopt the existing acceptability
threshold.
Record this threshold in section 5.3 of the Risk Management Program Participants:
Manual. • IT risk council
• Relevant business stakeholders
• Representation from senior
management team
Create a financial impact assessment scale
Instructions:
Participants:
• IT risk council
• Relevant business stakeholders
• Representation from senior management team
Incorporate project overruns and service outages into
financial impact scales
Time is money. Convert project overruns and service outages into costs.
Use the tables below to quickly convert impacts typically measured in units of time to financial cost. Replace the values in
the table with those that reflect your own costs.
• While project overruns and service outages may have intangible impacts beyond the unexpected costs stemming from
paying employees and lost revenue (such as adding complexity to project management and undermining the business’
confidence in IT), these measurements will provide adequate impact estimations for risk assessment.
• Remember, complex risk events can be analyzed further with an expected cost assessment.
Project Overruns
Average cost
Time Number of Estimated Impact
Project per employee
(days) employees cost scale
(per day) $250,000 Extreme
20
8 $300 $48,000 Low $100,000 High
days
$60,000 Moderate
Service Outages
$35,000 Low
Realized risk events may have profound reputational costs that do not immediately impact your
bottom line.
Everything an organization does or says creates an Match this dollar value to the corresponding level on the
indelible impression in the minds of its key stakeholders – impact scale created in Activity 2.2.2.
senior management, employees, customers, local • If you are not able to effectively translate all
communities, investors, and so on. The sum total of all reputational costs into financial costs, proceed to
these interactions represents your reputation.1 techniques 2 and 3 on the following slide.
– Richard Smith-Bingham, Director of Global Risk Center,
Oliver Wyman
1: Oliver Wyman
Incorporate reputational cost into risk assessments (2 of 3)
Technique #2
Calculate the value of avoiding reputational cost:
1. Imagine that the particular risk event you are assessing has occurred. Describe the resulting reputational cost
using qualitative language.
For example:
• A data breach which caused the unsanctioned disclosure of 2,000 client files has inflicted high reputational costs on
the organization. These have impacted the organization in the following ways:
o Loss of organizational trust in IT
o IT’s reputation as a value provider to the organization is tarnished
o Loss of client trust in the organization
o Potential for a public reprimand of the organization by the government to restore public trust
2. Then, determine (hypothetically) how much money the organization would be willing to spend to prevent the
reputational cost from being incurred.
3. Match this dollar value to the corresponding level on the impact scale created in Activity 2.2.2.
Incorporate reputational cost into risk assessments (3 of 3)
If you feel that the other techniques have not reflected reputational impacts in the overall severity level of the risk, create a
parallel scale that roughly matches your financial impact scale.
Technique #3
Create a parallel scale for reputational impact: Example:
Instructions:
1. Create a scale to assess the probability that a risk event will occur over a given
period of time.
80–99% Extreme
a) recommends assessing the probability that the risk event will occur over
a period of one year (the IT risk council should be reassessing the risk
event no less than once per year). 60–79% High
2. Ensure that the probability scale contains the same number of levels as the
financial impact scale (3, 5, 7, or 9). 40–59% Moderate
3. The example provided is likely to satisfy most IT departments – however, you
may customize the distribution of probability values to reflect the organization’s 20–39% Low
aversion towards uncertainty.
a) For example, an extremely risk averse organization may consider any
risk event with a probability greater than 20% to have a “High” probability 1–19% Negligible
of occurrence.
4. Attach the same labels used for the financial impact scale (Low, Moderate,
High, etc.). Record the risk impact scale in section 5.3 of the Risk Management
Program Manual.
Insight
Note: endorses the use of probability values (1–99%) rather than frequency (3 times per year) as a measurement
of likelihood.
For an explanation of why probability values lead to more precise and robust risk assessment, see the Appendix.
Assess all identified risk events using the Risk Register
Tool
Determine Risk
Risk severity level assessment Severity &
Prioritize IT
Risks
Assess the probability of occurrence and probable impact for all identified risk events.
Participants:
• IT risk council • Representation from the
• Relevant business senior leadership team
stakeholders
Instructions:
1. Draw the scales for financial impact, reputational impact (if different from the financial impact scale), and probability on the
whiteboard so that they are easily visible to all participants.
2. As a group, go through the list of identified risk events one at a time. Document the “Risk Category” and “Existing
Controls.”
• (See the slide following this activity for tips on identifying existing controls.)
3. Assign each risk event a probability and impact level.
• When major disagreements arise, give precedence to opinions of senior personnel, as they are more likely to
possess a holistic understanding of IT and the business, and are less likely to inflate the significance of area-
specific risks.
• Remember, you are assessing the impact that a risk event will have on the organization as a whole, not just on IT.
4. When assigning a financial impact level to a risk event, factor in the probable number of instances that the event will
occur within the time frame for which you are assessing (usually one year).
• For risk events like third-party service outages which typically occur a few times each year, assign them an impact
level that reflects the probable financial impact the risk event will have over the entire year.
o E.g. If your organization is likely to experience two major service outages next year and each outage costs
the organization approximately $15,000, the total financial impact is $30,000.
(Continued) Assess all identified risk events using the Risk Register Tool
Instructions (continued):
5. Assign a risk owner to non-negligible risk events.
Tips for Selecting Probability Values:
• For organizations that practice ongoing risk management and
frequently reassess their risk portfolio (minimum once per year), Does ~10% sound right?
risk ownership does not need to be assigned to “Negligible” or
low-level risks. Test a probability estimate by assessing the
truth of the following statements:
• View this slide for advice on how to select a risk owner and
information on their responsibilities. • The risk event will likely occur once in the
next 10 years (if the environment remains
6. As you input the first few probability and impact values, compare them nearly identical).
to one another to ensure consistency and accuracy: • If 10 organizations existed that were
• Is a service outage really twice as impactful as our primary nearly identical to our own, it is likely that
software provider going out of business? 1 out of 10 would experience the risk
• Is a data breach far more probable than a > 1 hour web-services event this year.
outage?
Identify existing risk controls
Insight
Designate a member of the IT risk council to be responsible for each risk event.
Selecting the Appropriate Risk Owner Risk ownership means that an individual is responsible for the
following activities:
Use the following considerations to determine
the best owner for each risk: • Monitoring the threat or vulnerability for changes in the
probability of occurrence and/or probable impact.
• The risk owner should be familiar with the
process, project, or IT function related to the • Monitoring changes in the market and external environment
risk event. that may alter the severity of the risk event.
• The risk owner should have access to the • Monitoring changes of closely related risks with
necessary data to monitor and measure the interdependencies.
severity of the risk event. • Developing and using key risk indicators (KRIs) to
• The risk owner’s performance assessment measure changes in risk severity.
should reflect their ability to demonstrate the • Regularly reporting changes in risk severity to the IT risk
ongoing management of their assigned risk council.
events.
• If necessary, escalating the risk event to other IT risk council
personnel or senior management for reassessment.
• Monitoring risk severity levels for risk events after a risk
response has been implemented.
Determine how timing impacts your risks
Instructions:
What is risk proximity?
1. Go through the register of risk events that have been assessed
The impact and probability of a risk event often
and identify risks where urgency and timing may impact the
fluctuate over time. The relationship between risk
severity of the risk, and how it should be responded to.
severity and time is called the proximity of the risk.
• Focus on “High” and “Extreme” risks.
• These fluctuations are often unpredictable.
2. Describe the proximity of these risk events in the Risk Register However, occasionally you may possess
Tool. knowledge about how time will impact a
• For example: “The probability of the risk event will particular risk.
decrease when the new IT budget is released on January • While the risk severity assigned to each risk in
1st.” the Risk Register Tool informs senior
3. Use the following questions to help you construct proximity management about the relative importance of
descriptions. each risk event, the proximity description
informs senior management about the
• Is the risk event specific to one particular point in time? urgency of the risk event and important
• Will the severity of the risk event increase over time? timing considerations for implementing risk
responses.
• Will the severity of the risk event increase at one
particular point in time? o For example, specific project risks only
exist while the project is underway.
• Will the severity of the risk event decrease over time?
– The probability of a project
• Will the severity of the risk event decrease at one overrun may be considerably
particular point in time? higher during a specific project
Note: See examples on the following slide. phase.
Understand how risk proximity can impact decision-making
Review the following risk event examples that illustrate how risk severity can fluctuate over time.
Risk Severity
Risk Severity
Time Time Time
(Optional) Use ’s Risk Costing Tool to calculate the expected
cost of IT’s high-priority risks
1. Conduct a deeper analysis of severe risks. 1. Select top risk events for expected cost
assessment (approx. 10–15 risk events)
• Determine specific probability and financial
This impact values to communicate the severity of 2. Determine probability values
section the risk in the Expected Cost tab. 3. Determine the probable financial impact
• Identify the maximum financial impact that the 4. Determine the maximum financial
risk event may inflict. impact
5. Calculate a risk event’s expected cost
2. Assess the effectiveness of multiple risk
responses for each risk event.
• Determine how proposed risk events will
change the probability of occurrence and
Section
financial impact of the risk event.
3.1
3. Incorporate risk proximity into your cost-
benefit analysis of risk responses.
• Illustrate how spending decisions will impact the
expected cost of the risk event over time.
Instructions:
1. Go through the list of prioritized risks in the Risk Costing Tool one by one. On a
Who should participate?
whiteboard, indicate the probability and impact level (from the Risk Register Tool) for
the risk event being assessed. • Depending on the size of
2. Go around the room and record probability values (1–99%) and impact values ($) your IT risk council, you may
from participants. want to consider conducting
• Only record values from individuals that indicate that they are fairly confident this exercise in a smaller
with their estimates. group.
• Keep probability estimates to values that are multiples of five.
• Ideally, you should try to find
3. Estimate and record the maximum impact that the risk event could inflict.
the right balance between
• See Appendix II for information on how the possibility of high-impact scenarios
ensuring that the necessary
may influence your decision-making.
experience and knowledge is
4. Discuss the estimates provided. Eliminate outliers and retracted estimates.
in the room, while insulating
• If you are unable to achieve consensus, take the average of the values
the exercise from outlier
provided.
opinions, noise, and
5. If you are having difficulty arriving at a probability or impact value, select the median
distractions.
value of the level assigned to the risk during the risk severity level assessment.
• E.g. Risk event assigned to probability level “Moderate” (20–39%). Select a
probability value of 30%.
Employ common techniques to evaluate probability and impact
Refine your risk assessment process by developing more accurate measurements of probability
and impact.
Intersubjective Probability Justifying Your Estimates:
The goal of the expected cost assessment When asked to explain the numbers you arrived at during the risk
is to develop robust intersubjective assessment, pointing to an assessment methodology gives greater
estimates of probability and financial credibility to your estimates.
impact. • Assign one individual to take notes during the assessment exercise.
• Have them document the main rationale behind each value and the
By aggregating a number of expert opinions of level of consensus.
what they deem to be the “correct” value, you
will arrive at a collectively determined value that
better reflects reality than an individual opinion. 25%
Example: The Delphi Method
The Delphi Method is a common technique to produce a judgement Insight
that is representative of the collective opinion of a group. The underlying assumption behind intersubjective
• Participants are sent a series of sequential questionnaires forecasting is that group judgements are more
(typically by email). accurate than individual judgements. However, this
• The first questionnaire asks them what the probability, probable may not be the case at all.
impact, and expected cost is for a specific risk event. Sometimes, a single expert opinion is more valuable
• Data from the questionnaire is compiled and then communicated than many uninformed opinions. Defining whose
in a subsequent questionnaire, which encourages participants to opinion is valuable and whose is not is an unpleasant
restate or revise their estimates given the group’s judgements. exercise – therefore, selecting the right personnel to
• With each successive questionnaire, responses will typically participate in the exercise is crucially important.
converge around a single intersubjective value.
Phase 2 Outcomes
PHASE 3
Risk Risk
Governance Identification Monitor, Communicate, and
Respond to IT Risk
Risk
Response
Risk
Assessment
3.1 3.2
Monitor IT Risks Communicate
and Develop Risk IT Risk
Responses Priorities
PHASE 1 PHASE 2
Identify and Assess IT Risk
Review IT Risk Fundamentals
and Governance
2.1 2.2
1.1 1.2
✓ 1. Acceptable Risk
Thresholds
✓ 1. Maturity Assessment
✓ 2. Risk Register
✓ 2. Stakeholder Map
✓ 3. Prioritized List of IT
✓ 3. IT Risk Council Charter Risks
PHASE 3
Monitor, Communicate, and Respond to IT
Risk
Phase 3 (Section 1): Monitor IT Risks and Develop Risk
Responses
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3
ACTIVITIES: OUTCOMES:
In this section:
1. Actively monitor threats and vulnerabilities.
2. Identify risk response actions that will address
Risk Response Establish top risks.
Monitoring
Responsibilities 3. Perform cost-benefit analyses to assess the
effectiveness and appropriateness of risk
Perform Identify Risk
responses.
Cost-Benefit Response
Analysis Actions Organizations with a formal program
for managing IT risk were 31% more
successful in mitigating risk than
organizations with an ad hoc
Key metrics: approach. 31%
Research Group, N=76
• Number of top risks without an identified risk response.
• Percentage of risk events with a positive expected
cost.
• Number and severity of realized risk events that were Insight
accepted by the business.
• Total number of risk responses assigned. Merely being aware of your greatest risks is not enough. IT
• Percentage of risk responses funded and turned into departments with a formal program for managing risk are more
projects. successful because they possess mechanisms that turn risk
• Expected cost of implementing risk responses. priorities into fully-funded projects that have the support of the
• True cost of implementing risk responses. business.
• Number of risk event action plans reviewed by senior
leadership.
Use ’s Risk Event Action Plan to manage high- Establish
Document the following information in the Obtaining sign-off from the senior leadership
Risk Event Action Plan: team or from the ERM office is an important
step of the risk management process. The
1. Risk event Risk Event Action Plan ensures that high-
2. Risk severity level priority risks are closely monitored and that
changes in risk severity are detected and
3. Risk owner reported.
4. Key risk indicators (KRIs)
Clear documentation is a way to ensure that
5. Delegation of risk monitoring critical information is shared with
responsibilities (if applicable) management so that they can make informed
6. Risk escalation protocols risk decisions. These reports should be
succinct yet comprehensive – depending on
7. Risk monitoring and reporting
time and resources, it is good practice to fill
schedule
out this form and obtain sign-off for the
8. Risk response action to be taken majority of IT risks.
9. Leadership review and approval Risk Event Action Plan
Develop KRI metrics to track changes in risk severity
Develop 3.1.1
key risk indicators (KRIs) and escalation protocols
Clearly document the risk owner and the individual(s) carrying out risk monitoring activities (delegates) in the
Risk Event Action Plan.
The risk owner should be held accountable for monitoring their assigned risks, but may delegate responsibility for these
tasks.
Develop 3.1.1
key risk indicators (KRIs) and escalation protocols
Example
Financial health Share price Monitor share prices Falls below $X CIO
Once an escalation threshold is breached, risk owners must report to a senior member of the IT risk council or to the
leadership team, who determines the next action to be taken.
Establish a schedule for monitoring risks
Establish3.1.2
the reporting schedule
For each risk event, document how frequently the risk owner must report to the IT risk council in
the Risk Event Action Plan.
• A clear reporting schedule enforces accountability for each risk event, ensuring that risk owners are fulfilling their
monitoring responsibilities.
• The ongoing discussion of risks between assessment cycles also increases overall awareness of how IT risks are not
static, but are constantly evolving.
Tool Information
• Develop risk responses for all risk events pre-populated on the “Risk
1
Response” sheet of the Risk Register Tool.
• Document the root cause of the risk (Activity 3.1.3) and other
contributing factors (Activity 3.1.4).
• Identify risk responses (Activity 3.1.5).
• Predict the effectiveness of the risk response (if implemented) by
estimating the residual probability and impact of the risk (Activity
3.1.5).
[Mandatory] Risk Register Tool • The tool will calculate the residual severity of the risk after applying
the risk response.
Tool Information
2
• Continue your second-level risk analysis for top risks for which you
calculated expected cost in section 2.2.
• Activity 3.1.5:
o Identify between 1 and 4 risk response options for each risk.
o Develop precise values for residual probability and impact.
o Compare expected cost of the risk event to expected residual
cost.
[Optional] o Select the risk response to recommend to senior leadership
Risk Costing Tool and document it in the Risk Register Tool.
Determine the root cause of IT risks
Root cause
3.1.3 analysis
Identify
3.1.4
contributing factors
Environmental factors interact with the root cause to increase the probability or impact of the risk
event.
Which factors matter? Develop risk responses that target contributing factors.
Identify relevant actors and
assets that amplify or Root cause: Contributing factors: Symptoms:
diminish the severity of the Business units rely on “real- Unreliable router software Network outage
risk. time” data gathered from Actors: Network provider,
Actors latency-sensitive applications Actors: All business
router vendor, router software units, network provider
• Internal (business units) Actors: vendor, IT department
• External (vendor, Enterprise App users Asset/resource:
regulator, market, (Finance, Product Asset/resource: Network, Network, business
competitor, hostile actor) Development, Product router, router software operations, employee
Assets/Resources Management) productivity
• Infrastructure Risk response:
• Applications Asset/resource: Replace the vendor that Risk response:
• Processes Applications, network provides routers and router Replace legacy
• Information/data Risk response: software. systems.
• Personnel Decrease the use of latency-
• Reputation sensitive applications. ✓ X
• Operations
Document contributing
X Replacing the vendor would Replacing legacy
factors for each risk event in Decreasing the use of key apps reduce network outages at a systems would be
the Risk Register Tool. contradicts business objectives. relatively low cost. too costly.
Identify risk responses and assess their effectiveness
Identify Risk
Identify
3.1.5
and assess risk responses Response
Actions
Instructions:
Complete the following steps for each risk event. Document the following in the Risk Event Action
1. Identify a risk response action that will help reduce the Plan for each risk event:
probability of occurrence or the impact if the event were
• Risk response actions
to occur.
• Residual probability and impact levels
• Document risk responses on the “Risk • Residual risk severity level
Responses” tabs of the Risk Register Tool.
Review the following slides on the 4 Types of
• Indicate the type of risk response (avoidance, Risk Response to help complete the activity.
mitigation, transfer, or acceptance).
1. Avoidance
2. Assign each risk response action a residual probability
2. Mitigation
level and a residual impact level.
3. Transfer
• This is the same step performed in Activity 2.2.6, 4. Acceptance
when initial probability and impact levels were
determined – however, now you are estimating the
probability and impact of the risk event AFTER the
risk response action has been implemented
successfully.
Risk Register
Tool
• The Risk Register Tool will generate a residual
risk severity level for each risk event.
3. Identify the potential Risk Action Owner (Project
Manager) if the response is selected and turned into an IT
project, and document this in the Risk Register Tool.
Take actions to avoid the risk entirely
1 Risk Avoidance
Example
Risk event: Information security vulnerability from third-party cloud services
provider.
• Risk avoidance action: Store all data in-house.
• Benefits sacrificed: Cost-savings, storage flexibility, etc.
Pursue projects that reduce the likelihood or impact of
the risk event
Example 1 Example 3
Most risk responses will reduce both the probability of the Others will reduce the potential impact without decreasing
risk event occurring and its potential impact. its probability of occurring.
Example Example
Mitigation: Purchase and implement Enterprise Mobility Mitigation: Utilize robust encryption for all sensitive data.
Management (EMM) software with remote wipe capability.
• Corporate-issued mobile phones are just as likely
• EMM reduces the probability that sensitive data is to fall into the hands of nefarious actors, but the
accessed by a nefarious actor. financial impact they can inflict on the organization
• The remote-wipe capability reduces the impact by is greatly reduced.
closing the window that sensitive data can be
accessed from.
(Continued) Pursue projects that reduce the likelihood or impact of the risk event
Use the following IT functions to guide your selection of risk mitigation actions:
A Process Improvement
Key processes that would most directly improve the risk profile:
• Change Management
• Project Management
• Vendor Management
B Personnel
• Greater staff depth in key areas
• Increased discipline around documentation
• Knowledge Management
• Training
C Infrastructure Management
• Disaster Recovery Plan/Business Continuity Plan
• Redundancy & Resilience
• Preventative Maintenance
• Physical Environment Security
D Rationalization and Simplification
This is a foundational activity, as complexity is a major source of risk:
• Application Rationalization – reducing the number of applications
• Data Management – reducing the volume and locations of data
Transfer risks to a third party
Risk transfer is the exchange of uncertain future costs for fixed present costs.
The most common form of risk transfer is the purchase of insurance. Other forms of risk transfer include:
o The uncertain future cost of an IT risk event can be • Self-insurance
transferred to an insurance company who assumes the risk o Appropriate funds can be set aside
in exchange for insurance premiums. in advance to address the financial
o The most common form of IT-relevant insurance is cyber- impact of a risk event should it
insurance. occur.
Not all risks can be insured. Insurable risks typically possess the • Warranties
following 5 characteristics:1 • Contractual transfer
1. The loss must be accidental (the risk event cannot be insured if it o The financial impact of a risk event
could have been avoided by taking reasonable actions). can be transferred to a third party
2. The insured cannot profit from the occurrence of the risk event. through clauses agreed to in a
contract.
3. The loss must be able to be measured in monetary terms.
o For example, a vendor can be
4. The organization must have an insurable interest (it must be the contractually obligated to assume
party that incurs the loss). all costs resulting from failing to
5. An insurance company must offer insurance against that risk. secure the organization’s data.
1: M_o_R, 2007
Accept risks that fall below established thresholds or are prohibitively expensive to
address
Accepting a risk means tolerating the
4 Risk Acceptance expected cost of a risk event. It is a
conscious and deliberate decision
to retain the threat.
You may choose to accept a risk event for one of the
following 3 reasons:
1. The risk severity (expected cost) of the risk event falls below
acceptability thresholds and does not justify an investment in
a risk avoidance, mitigation, or transfer measure.
2. The risk severity (expected cost) exceeds acceptability
thresholds but all effective risk avoidance, mitigation, and
transfer measures are ineffective or prohibitively
expensive.
3. The risk severity (expected cost) exceeds acceptability
thresholds but there are no feasible risk avoidance,
mitigation, and transfer measures to be implemented.
Constant monitoring and the assignment of responsibility and accountability for accepted risk events is
crucial for effective management of these risks. No IT risk should be accepted without detailed
documentation outlining the reasoning behind that decision and evidence of approval by senior
management.
(Optional) Use ’s Risk Costing Tool to analyze and
select a risk response
Perform
Risk response
3.1.6 cost-benefit analysis Cost-Benefit
Analysis
Instructions:
1. Reopen the Risk Costing Tool. For each risk that you
Risk Costing Tool
conducted an expected cost assessment in section 2.2 for,
find the Excel sheet that corresponds to the risk number
(e.g. R001).
2. Identify between 1 and 4 risk response options for the risk
event and document them in the Risk Costing Tool.
• The “Risk Response 1” field will be automatically
populated with expected cost data for a scenario
where no action was taken (risk acceptance). This
will serve as a baseline for comparing alternative
responses.
• For the following steps, go through the risk
responses one by one.
3. Estimate the first year cost for the risk response.
• This cost should reflect initial capital expenditures and
first year operating expenditures.
(Continued) Use ’s Risk Costing Tool to analyze and select a risk response
Risk response
3.1.6 cost-benefit analysis
4. Estimate residual risk probability and financial impact for Year 1 with the risk response in place.
• Rather than estimating the probability level (low, medium, high), determine a precise probability value of the risk
event occurring once the response has been implemented.
• Estimate the dollar value of financial impacts if the risk event were to occur with the risk response in place.
The tool will calculate the expected residual cost of the risk event:
(Financial Impact x Probability) - Costs = Expected Residual Cost
5. Select the highest value risk response and document it in the Risk Register Tool.
6. Document your analysis and recommendations in the Risk Event Action Plan.
Note: See Activity 3.1.7 to build multi-year cost projections for risk responses.
(Optional) Create multi-year cost projections with the Risk Costing Tool
Create
3.1.7
multi-year cost projections
Select between risk response options by projecting their costs and benefits over multiple years.
• It can be difficult to choose between risk response options that require different payment schedules. A risk
response project with costs spread out over more than one year (e.g. incremental upgrades to an IT system) may be more
advantageous than a project with costs concentrated up-front that may cost less in the long-run (e.g. replacing the
system).
• However, the impact that risk response projects have on reducing risk severity is not necessarily static. For example, an
expensive project like replacing a system may drastically reduce the risk severity of a system failure. Whereas,
incremental system upgrades may only marginally reduce risk severity in the short-term but reach similar levels as a full
system replacement in a few years.
Use ’s Risk Costing Tool to conduct multi-year cost benefit analyses and compare risk responses.
Instructions:
Calculate expected cost for multiple years using the Risk Costing
Tool for:
• Risk events that are subject to change in severity over
time.
• Risk responses that reduce the severity of the risk
gradually.
• Risk responses that cannot be implemented immediately.
Copy/paste the graphs into the Risk Report and the Risk Event
Action Plan for the risk event.
Phase 3 (Section 2): Communicate IT Risk Priorities
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3
ACTIVITIES: OUTCOMES:
Communicate IT Risk Create a strong paper trail and obtain sign-off for the
ITRC’s recommendations.
Management in Two Directions
Now that you have collected all of the necessary raw data, you must
1. Up to senior leadership (and ERM if
communicate your insights and recommendations effectively.
applicable)
Obtain
3.2.1
executive approval for risk action plans
Task:
All IT risks that were flagged for exceeding the organization’s severity
thresholds must obtain sign-off by the CIO or another member of the
senior leadership team.
• In the assessment phase, you evaluated risks using severity thresholds
approved by the business and determined whether or not they justified a
risk response.
• Whether your recommendation was to accept the risk or to analyze
possible risk responses, the business should be made aware of most IT
risks.
Best Practices and Key Benefits
Best practice is for all acceptable risks to also be signed-off by senior leadership.
However, for ITRCs that brainstorm 100+ risks, this may not be possible. If this is the
case, prioritize accepted risks that were assessed to be closest to the organization’s
thresholds.
By receiving a stamp of approval for each key risk from senior management, you ensure
that:
1. The organization is aware of important IT risks that may impact business
objectives.
2. The organization supports the risk assessment conducted by the ITRC.
3. The organization supports the plan of action and monitoring responsibilities
proposed by the ITRC.
4. If a risk event were to occur, the organization holds ultimate accountability.
Use ’s Risk Report to communicate IT’s top risk recommendations to senior
leadership
3.2.2
Publish the Risk Report
Create a succinct, impactful document that summarizes the outcomes of risk assessment and
highlights the IT risk council’s top recommendations to the senior leadership team.
The Risk Report contains: The closer IT gets to the board, the more
visibility and money they're going to get
• An executive summary page highlighting the main takeaways for senior
to address IT risk. But you need to give
management:
the business some 'tools' so they care
o A short summary of results from the most recent risk
about IT risk.
assessment
o Dashboard – VP Security and Risk, Energy Logistics
o A list of top 10 risks ordered from most severe to least Company
• Subsequent individual risk analyses (1 to 10)
o Detailed risk assessment data
o Risk responses
o Risk response analysis
o Multi-year cost projection (see the following slide)
o Dashboard
o Recommendations
Insight
Encourage risk-awareness to extend the benefits of risk management to every aspect of IT.
Benefits of risk-awareness:
• More preventative and proactive approaches to IT projects are discussed and considered.
• Changes to the IT threat landscape are more likely to be detected, communicated, and acted upon.
• IT possesses a realistic perception of its ability to perform functions and provide services.
• Contingency plans are put in place to hedge against risk events.
• Fewer IT risks go unidentified.
• CIOs and business executives make better risk decisions.
• False confidence about the number of IT risks impacting the organization and their severity.
• Risk-relevant information is not communicated to the ITRC, which may result in inaccurate risk
assessments.
• Confusion surrounding whose responsibility it is to consider how risk impacts IT decision-making.
• Uncertainty and panic when unanticipated risks impact the IT department and the organization.
Embedding risk management in the IT department is a full-time job
Take concrete steps to increase risk-aware decision-making in IT.
The IT risk council plays an instrumental role in fostering a culture of risk-awareness throughout the IT department. In
addition to periodic risk assessments, fulfilling reporting requirements, and undertaking ongoing monitoring responsibilities,
members of the ITRC can take a number of actions to encourage other IT employees to adopt a risk-focused approach,
particularly at the project planning stage.
Embed risk management in project planning Embed risk management with employee
development
Make time for discussing project risks at every
Train IT staff on the ITRC’s planned responses to
project kick-off.
specific risk events.
• A main benefit of including senior personnel from
• If a response to a particular risk event is not to
across IT in the ITRC is that they are able to
implement a project, but rather to institute new
disseminate the IT risk council’s findings to their
policies or procedures, ensure that changes are
respective practices.
communicated to employees and that they receive
• At project kick-off meetings, schedule time to training.
identify and assess project-specific risks.
Provide risk management education opportunities.
• Encourage the project team to identify strategies
• Remember that a more risk-aware IT employee
to reduce the probability and impact of those risks
provides more value to the organization.
and document these in the project charter.
• Invest in your employees by encouraging them to
• Lead by example by being clear and open about
pursue education opportunities like receiving risk
what constitutes acceptable and unacceptable
management accreditation, or providing them with
risks.
educational experiences such as workshops,
seminars, and e-learning.
(Continued) Embedding risk management in the IT department is a full-time job
Performance metrics:
Depending on the size of your IT department, and the amount of resources dedicated to ongoing risk management, you
may consider embedding risk management responsibilities into the performance assessments of certain ITRC members or
other IT personnel.
• Personalize the risk management program metrics you have documented in your Risk Management Program Manual.
• Evidence that KPIs are monitored and frequently reported is also a good indicator that risk owners are fulfilling their risk
management responsibilities.
Insight
If risk management responsibilities are not built into performance assessments, it is less likely that they will invest
time and energy into these tasks. Adding risk management metrics to performance assessments directly links good
job performance with good risk management, making it more likely that ITRC activities and initiatives gain traction
throughout the IT department.
Job descriptions:
Changing job titles to reflect the focus of an individual’s role on managing IT risk may be a good way to distinguish
personnel tasked with developing KRIs and monitoring risks on a week-to-week basis.
• Some examples include: IT Risk Officer, IT Risk Manager, and IT Risk Analyst.
Hand off risk responses to project managers
Transfer
3.2.3
ownership of risk responses to project managers
Once risk responses have obtained approval and funding, it is time to transform them into fully-
fledged projects.
• Assign responsibility for executing the specific risk
response action to a project manager.
• For advice on how to optimize project management,
read ’s blueprint, Create Project Management
Success.
Finalize
3.2.4
the Risk Management Program Manual
To continue the momentum of your newly-forged IT risk management program, read ’s research on conducting periodic
risk assessments and “health checks”:
PHASE 3
Risk Risk
Governance Identification Monitor, Communicate, and
Respond to IT Risk
Risk
Response
Risk
Assessment
3.1 3.2
✓ 2. Risk Reports
PHASE 1 PHASE 2
Identify and Assess IT Risk ✓ 3. IT Risk
Review IT Risk Fundamentals Recommendations
and Governance
2.1 2.2
1.1 1.2
✓ 1. Acceptable Risk
Thresholds
✓ 1. Maturity Assessment
✓ 2. Risk Register
✓ 2. Stakeholder Map
✓ 3. Prioritized list of IT risks
✓ 3. IT Risk Council Charter
Appendix I: Probability vs. Frequency
Why we measure likelihood using probability, not frequency:
The basic formula of Likelihood x Impact = Severity is a common methodology used across risk management frameworks.
However, some frameworks measure likelihood using Frequency, rather than Probability.
Frequency is typically measured as the number of instances an event occurs over a given period of time (e.g. once per
month).
• For risk assessment, historical data regarding the frequency of a risk event is commonly used to indicate the likelihood that
the event will happen in the future.
Probability is a numerical representation of the “degree of belief” that the risk event will occur in a given future timeframe (e.g.
25% probability that the event will occur within the next year).
False Objectivity
While some may argue that frequency provides an objective measurement of likelihood, it is well-understood in the field of
probability theory that historical data regarding the frequency of a risk event may have little bearing over the probability of that
event happening in the future. Frequency is often an indication of future probability, but should not be considered an objective
measurement of it.
Likelihood scales that use frequency underestimate the magnitude of risks that lack historical precedent. For example, an IT
department that has never experienced a high-impact data breach would adopt a very low likelihood score using the
frequentist approach. However, if all of the organization’s major competitors have suffered a major breach within the last 2
years, they ought to possess a much higher degree of belief that the risk event will occur within the next year.
Probability is a more comprehensive measurement of future likelihood, as frequency can be used to inform the selection of
a probability value. The process of selecting intersubjective probability values will naturally internalize historical data such as
the frequency that the event occurred in the past. Further, the frequency that the event is expected to occur in the future can
be captured by the expected impact value. For example, a risk event that has an expected impact per occurrence of $10,000
that is expected to occur 3 times over the next year has an expected impact of $30,000.
Appendix II: Should max impacts sway decision-making?
Don’t just fixate on the most probable impact – be aware of high impact outcomes.
Fig. 1
During assessment, risks are evaluated according to their most probable financial impact. Normal Probability
• For example, a service outage will likely last for 2 hours, and may have an expected cost of Distribution
$14,000.
Naturally, focusing on the most probable financial impact will exclude higher impacts that – while
Probability
theoretically possible – are so unlikely that they do not warrant any real consideration.
• For example, it is possible that a service outage could last for days – however, the probability
for such an event may be well below 1%.
While the risk severity level assessment allows you to present impacts as a range of values
(e.g. $50,000 to $75,000), the expected cost assessment requires you to select specific values.
• However, this analysis may fail to consider much higher potential impacts that have non- Financial Impact
negligible probability values (probability values that you cannot ignore). Fig. 2
• What you consider “non-negligible” will depend on your organizational risk tolerance/appetite. Fat-Tailed Probability
Distribution
Most Probable
Sometimes called Black Swan events or Fat-Tailed outcomes, high-impact events may occur Impact
when the far right of the probability distribution – or the “tail” – is thicker than a normal
Probability
distribution (see fig. 2).
• A good example is a data breach. While small to medium impacts are far more likely to occur
than a devastating intrusion, the high-impact scenario cannot be ignored completely.
Fat-Tailed
Outcomes
For risk events that contain non-negligible probabilities (too high to be ignored)
consider elevating the risk severity level or expected cost.
Financial Impact