Alexandria Engineering Journal (2018) xxx, xxx–xxx

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Alexandria University

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Special studies in management of construction

project risks, risk concept, plan building, risk
quantitative and qualitative analysis, risk response
strategies
Ahmed Mohamed Keshk *, Ibrahim Maarouf, Ysory Annany

Architectural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt

Received 11 September 2017; accepted 19 December 2017

KEYWORDS Abstract Project management includes several managements, such as time management, cost man-
Project management; agement, and quality management. . .etc. Project risk management is one of the most important
Time management; management, especially in this time, which has many unexpected events.
Cost management; This management means with classification, analyzing, planning, identification, assessment, and
Quality management; response and avoidance strategies of risks.
Project risk management; Therefore, it should be too interested in risk management, to avoid many losses.
Analyzing; Ó 2018 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria
Assessment; University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/
Response; licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Avoidance strategies of risks

1. Introduction 1.1. Research problem

Production of projects is one of the most important produc- As we also made reference at the forefront of research, the pro-
tion patterns, the success of these projects basically depend ject management today is an important field in the fields of
on effective management for planning, monitoring and business, engineering management and information technol-
scheduling project activities, and taking necessary actions to ogy, although mastering skills of planning, control and
accelerate the completion of its certain activities. scheduling of the project has become vital to its success, as
One of important duties of management is the analysis of today’s business environment are dynamic and rapid change
deviations are happened; also some tasks of management are the lot of surprises and risks are taken into account highlights
preparation of controlling reports and taking necessary steps suddenly, leading to confusion and block the implementation
to correct them. of the project, or perhaps completely collapse. The problem
posed by this research can be formulated following question:
* Corresponding author.
What is the meaning of risk in a project? What is its sources?
E-mail address: eng_ahm.keshk@yahoo.com (A.M. Keshk). What are the methods of diagnosis? What are the strategies
Peer review under responsibility of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria that can be adopted to confront it or respond to it?
University.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
1110-0168 Ó 2018 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Please cite this article in press as: A.M. Keshk et al., Special studies in management of construction project risks, risk concept, plan building, risk quantitative and
qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
2 A.M. Keshk et al.

1.2. Importance and objectives of research for all details. These needs to be clear and expanded definition
of the project, and determine the scope of the project in detail,
(Some studies show that most of the business organizations do the most important actions to be taken when determining the
not conduct an analysis of risks and, for example, only 30% of project are Work Breakdown Structure ‘‘WBS segmentation.
organizations conduct a risk analysis in it projects) [1] ‘‘For the work contained in the project”.
Objectives that seek this research can be summarized as fol- The three main characteristics of the projects are not the
lows: only, but there are other attributes, including that the project
consists of several specific activities and limited budget, also
it uses the financial and human resources, it requires time
1.2.1. Identification of the project concept, its characteristics,
and effort according to the type of project and the estimated
the meaning of project management and the role of a
completion period.
project manager.

1.2.2. clarify the concept of risk and its sources. 3. Project management and project manager

1.2.3. Identify the most common methods to diagnose a risk of {Any project needs to an Effective team to make it a success,
all quantity and quality types. that is mean it needs management with high competence and
mastery of the mechanisms of project management, Which
1.2.4. Statement of the most important adopted strategies to can be defined as ‘‘a set of management skills, knowledge
treatment risk or respond to it. and tools they require to apply for project activities to meet
the requirements of the completion of the project in full, start-
ing from primary phase (Initiating stage) through the planning
2. Project concept and characteristics phase, implementation phase (Executing stage), control phase
(Controlling) to ending with finishing phase and closing the
project phase (Closing stage)} [6].
A definition of Project is a collection of activities or sequential
Thus, management of a project has to deal accurately and
and interdependent processes for production (good or service)
attention to times of completion of a project, costs and quality
of sole and unique in its characteristics, every project has a
of work and to avoid the risks and knowledge of what was
specific beginning and end; it is a temporary status, which is
requested by the beneficiaries of the project. It is the task is
being, implemented gradually [2].
not easy, it requires different skills and effective working meth-
(Projects can be implemented in various administrative
ods to reach acceptable results, especially, working environ-
levels in the organizations; working team can consist of one
ment is characterized by being a rapidly changing dynamic
individual or a work team).
environment as well as the fact that each project has properties
(From this definition, we can conclude three major charac-
that distinguish it from other projects, which makes a risk fac-
teristics) [3–5].
tor was present, risks may be very danger in innovative pro-
jects which have never been done other similar advance
2.1. Projects are temporary
projects before. Sometimes, many views share (or interfere)
with the implementation of a specific project as well as a long
It means that projects always have a limited period of time period of time required to implementation. This makes task of
with specific beginning and specific end, where the end of pro- project management very complex and difficult.
ject is to achieve the goals that the project was implemented for These and other matters led to appear an independent field
them, of course, duration time of a project varies from one in the science of management called ‘‘project management”
project to another, according to its characteristics, some pro- and specialist in it is Project Manager, it became focus on
jects have a short time and others have a long time, they granting postgraduate degrees (PhD and MSc) in this field
may take several years to implement. It should also be noted and it is studied in most universities and institutes around
that the team that is being formed to manage a project ends the world, where project management is no longer just the
with the end of a project. art of gaining experience and practice, but it became a science
having its assets, rules and theories, a lot of specialized books
2.2. Unique product, service or result of this field were written and a lot of specialized scientific
magazines were released, most notably of those are issued by
The project is usually alone in its properties and has never car- the American Institute of project management entitled ‘‘Inter-
ried out with the same fully specifications, as each project has national Journal of Project Management‘‘.
its circumstances, its activities and its method of implementa- {The role of a project manager is a vital and essential role in
tion, for example, there are thousands of buildings that are success or failure of a project, so knowledge and skills package
being built, but each one has a different owner, a different that must be mastered by him, the American projects Manage-
design, a different contractor and a different location. ment Institute (formerly referred to it) as the argument in this
regard, Accurately identified them as follows} [2]:
2.3. Progressive elaboration
3.1. Project Integration Management
Projects are implemented in a gradual and successive steps, 3.2. Project Scope Management
where there is an increase in the value of a work done, in other 3.3. Project Time Management
words, the work in all its stages must be performed carefully 3.4. Project Cost Management

Please cite this article in press as: A.M. Keshk et al., Special studies in management of construction project risks, risk concept, plan building, risk quantitative and
qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
Introduction to management of construction project risks 3

3.5. Project Quality Management 4. Project risk concept

3.6. Project Human Resources Management
3.7. Project Communication Management
According to definition a risk in any project, which is intro-
3.8. Project Risk Management
duced in the book of Project Management Certificate Exami-
3.9. Project Procurement Management.
nation, by PMBOK Guide, Project Management Institute, {a
risk in any project is an uncertainly Event or circumstance,
Perfection of these knowledge and skills by a manager
which results to negative or positive impact on the aim of a
of project is an indicator of the success or failure of the
project.}
project, according to this situation, he plays multiple roles,
{Risk can be defined in any project that an event or circum-
he is the commander and the head of the project also he is
stance is uncertain which results from its occurrence a negative
a link between a project and the elements of its external
or positive impact on the goal of the project} [8].
environment, whether governmental elements or project
Each risk has a reason, which leads to a result. for example,
owners.
this reason may be available limited qualified workforce for a
As well as some of the important roles of project manager
project or inadequacy of this force of the tasks assigned to it,
are decision roles, where he will be is the organizer and proces-
so, the result or consequence will appears clearance in the addi-
sor of problems and unexpected bottlenecks, also he is respon-
tional cost or imbalance in work scheduling, also the length of
sible for distribution of available financial and human
implementation period or quality of implementation. As for
resources for a project’s activities as well as informational
the conditions of the project, which could lead to the
and analytical role of the reports and treating deviations, he
occurrence of risks, the most important of these conditions is
acts as the official spokesman for his organization, project
mismanagement or incompetence or depending on external
manager must be responsible for all stages, Fig. 1 show project
participants (cannot be censorship and control of their
life cycle.

Full operation

Construction completion

The edit of major contracts

The decision to start the project

First phase Second phase Third phase fourth phase

Feasibility study Planning and design Construction Operation
Final idea of the project The basic design Manufacturing Final tests
Feasibility study Cost estimation Construction works Maintenance
Design strategy scheduling Installation
Determine the terms tests
of the contract

First phase Second phase Third phase fourth phase

Fig. 1 Construction project life cycle [7].

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qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
4 A.M. Keshk et al.

performance) for implementation of the project. Some of risks 5.3. Budgeting

are known (It is those risks that have been diagnosed and ana-
lyzed) can be planned. On the other side, another are unknown, Determine the estimated budget to cope risks and deal with
which they cannot be managed, although the managers of a them according to their size and the extent of their expected
project can deal with it through general emergency Plans impact.
depending on previous experiences, there are risks as an oppor-
tunity, It is these risks that threaten the success of the project,
but they are accepted for the results expected of them. 5.4. Scheduling and timing
For example, to accelerate by adoption rapid scheduling of
project activities having a great danger not to completion on Determining the frequency of occurrence of risks and the tim-
exact time and high cost, but in contrast, benefits that arise ing of likely occurred during the project life cycle, it must be
from acquired time will be large. reviewed timings periodically according to the project’s pro-
gress in implementation.
5. Risk management plan building
5.5. Scoring
{It means a decide how to prepare to deal with risk and the
entrances to treatment and identify activities, coordination
Before starting the quantitative or qualitative analysis, it must
and planning process, this is very important because it
create standards and a Working knowledge of these standards
describes the next steps to be taken to determine the level, type
mechanism and the extent of their stability over Time and
and extent of clarity of risk in the project, therefore the correct
though various other risks.
treatment.} [9].
{First step for preparing a plan of risk management is plan-
ning meetings. This preparing plan is very important for risks 5.6. Risk categories
diagnosis, qualitative and quantitative analysis of these risks
and response and control of these risks methods)} [10,6]. According to nature of work and type of project, risks can be
It can be summed up elements of the plan as follows. classified into several types by resorting to the same tasks seg-
mentation method called (Risk Breakdown Structure) (RBS)
5.1. Methodology (see Fig. 2).

It means the entrance, tools and data sources using in risk 5.7. Formats and templates
management project.
These are documents and forms are ready and prepared in
5.2. Roles and responsibilities
advance to describe risk content and methods of responding
to it, these documents are the tools can help manager to deal
It means determine the team for risk management, it may with risk to describe its content, to document it and to analyze
needs offices to carry out the analysis and evaluation its various aspects.

Fig. 2 Risk breakdown structure [7].

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qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
Introduction to management of construction project risks 5

5.8. Tracing The inability to deliver some of main parts of project in a

timely manner is only a warning signal warning of the danger
It is a process of document for all the terms of risk, it is very of not being able to deliver the entire project at the agreed
useful for perpetrators of this project and all beneficiaries from time.
it, this document contains explaining of future needs of the
implementation processes also contains learned lessons. 6. Risk quantitative and qualitative analysis

5.9. Risk identification Risk Qualitative Analysis: it means Size and breadth of the
impact potential risk, it is important to arrangement risks
{This phase includes identifying features of risks clearly and according to its degree of impact on the project objectives.
which will effect on the project and the extent of its potential Risk Quantitative Analysis: it means Quantitative descrip-
impact includes documentation of all characteristics of these tion of risk according to the probability of occurrence; the con-
risks.} [8]. sequences of risk constitute a monetary value or any other
Diagnosis of risk task is defined by each of work team pro- value.
ject, risk management team, experts of different financial and
technical aspects of various sections of project, some Cus- 6.1. Qualitative assessment
tomers and beneficiaries of the project, managers of other pro-
jects and stakeholders, and experts from abroad. Qualitative assessment is very important to determine the
{The diagnostic process is a procedural process that can importance of risks and knowing which needs to treatment
pass through three stages: first stage is carried out by members before another, this assessment depends on some Computa-
of project team and risk management team, second stage is tional and graphical tools, one of these tools is matrices of
performed by entire project team and main beneficiaries of arrangement of probability and consequence, it is called,
project, finally the third stage is carried out by all mentioned ‘‘Probability Impact Risk Rating Matrix”, it is structured by
who were not involved in the earlier stages. It is used in diag- estimating the following.
nostic process, several tools in order to make it accurate, per-
haps the most important of these tools as follows:} [6,11]. 6.1.1. Risk probability
it is qualities ‘estimated by specific characters, like, very low,
5.9.1. Documentation review very high and another characters, Majoring possibilities rang-
It is carried out by accurate reading of main contractor of pro- ing from 0.05 to 1.00 for assessment these Qualities’ charac-
ject, its plans and primary proposals of it. ters, the common assessment is: 0.1 means very low, 0.3
means low, 0.5 means Moderate, 0.7 means high, and 0.9
5.9.2. Information – Gathering techniques means very high.
The most well-known methods of data collection are Brain-
storming, Delphi method, Interviewing, As well as analysis 6.1.2. Risk consequence
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats). It evaluates also by Qualities’ characters, like low or moderate
or high, usually, it usually suggests the relative importance
5.9.3. Checklists which reflect this impact, and the most common is 0.05 for
These lists are based on available historical information and the consequences of a very low impact, 0.10 for low impact,
accumulated knowledge through implementation of previous 0.20 for moderate impact, 0.40 for high impact and 0.80 for
projects and other sources of information. very high impact.
After identifying these two indicators, we can account the
5.9.4. Assumptions analysis coefficient matrix of risk, this equal Multiplied by (probabil-
ity  consequence) for each objective of project objectives, in
Each project is based on a set of initial assumptions and pos-
Table 1, we have an example of a matrix of Order of probabil-
sible scenarios and analyze the assumptions, assumptions anal-
ity and consequence of risk, in Table 2, we notice matrix risk
ysis means discovering the validity of these assumptions in
factor, which has assessment of Risks, we notice that
terms of inaccuracy or instability or lack of fullness or
(0.05  0.9) equal 0.45, nearly 0.50, also (0.9  0.10) equal
perfection.
0.09, (0.9  0.20) equal 0.18.
It is very important to know significance of three colors in
5.9.5. Diagrams
the matrix, Green color indicates that the risk is little impor-
{These include a wide variety known in the administrative lit- tance; Yellow color indicates that there are important risk
erature and engineering works such as diagram of cause and and red color indicates that the risk would have a major
effect, it is called ‘‘Cause – Effect Diagram”, maps cruise is impact on the project’s objectives.
called ‘‘Flow Charts”, other is called ‘‘influence diagrams” There are other qualitative methods, such as another
and others. method specifies the order of risks, according to customize of
Risk diagnosis process will contribute for identifying the marks or points for each risk by a group of residents in project,
risks that will effect on the project, also it is considered an impor- where each resident is allocated to him, 100 mark, he can dis-
tant phase for detection of the so-called symptoms or cues dan- tribute them according to the importance estimated by him for
ger, it is called ‘‘ Risk Triggers”, sometimes it is called a warning each risk, then, he order these risks according to their relative
against signals for occurrence of a certain danger.} [10]. importance, as in the following example in Table 3.

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qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
6 A.M. Keshk et al.

Table 1 Matrix probability – the consequence of the risk [8].

Project Risk Assessment %
objectives
Very low 0.05 Low 0.1 Moderate 0.2 High 0.4 Very high 0.8
Cost Increasing cost Increasing cost is less than Increasing cost is between Increasing cost is between Increasing cost is more
is not 5% 5% and 10% 10% and 20% than 20%
important
Project Simple glitch glitch of scheduling is less Imbalance ratio in total imbalance ratio in total Imbalance ratio in total
Scheduling of scheduling than 5% scheduling is between 5% scheduling is between 10% scheduling is more than
and 10% and 20% 20%
Project Simple change Some scope aspects is Main parts of scope will Changes in scope is not The final output of
scope in scope of affected slightly be affected accepted by beneficiary project cannot take
project advantage of it
Quality Low quality Scheduling of some Main parts of scope Non- Quality level is not The final output of
aspects of project scope conforming accepted by customer project cannot take
has low quality advantage of it

Table 2 Matrix risk factor [8].

Based on this, order of risks according to its importance The information will be collected based on the probability
will be as follows in Table 4. distribution type, which will be adopted in quantified estimat-
There are many other ways depending on qualitative anal- ing of risk.
ysis and vary in degree of its complexity and accuracy. The most commonly methods is triple estimating for the
cost, to quantitative assessment of risk (in cost), it needs calcu-
6.2. Quantitative assessment late the cost of Completion of a project.
For example, if the triple-an assessment of one project was
as follows in Table 5.
There are disparate methods in their degree of complexity, but
Here we find that the most moderate estimate is 41 thou-
they can have a biggest clearer as for risk, the ability to con-
sand units of cash, if we need to estimate the probability of
front it, and taking the necessary actions to mitigate its impact,
completion of this project with same cost by a simple graph-
the most important of these methods as follows.
ical method, we will find that the probability of achievement
is only 12%, if executing company wanted to determine the
6.2.1. Interviewing
probability of completion of 75% of the cost, this means
The first step in the quantitative assessment of risk is inter- that the cost will be 50 thousand monetary union (as in
views are conducted with the main beneficiaries of project the figure below). An increasable equal 22% (as shown at
(Stakeholder) and specialists in various project activities. Fig. 3).

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qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003
Introduction to management of construction project risks 7

Table 3 Matrix qualitative assessment [11].

Residents Risks
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of points allocated
to each resident
A 10 5 0 10 0 0 0 25 30 20 100
B 5 10 30 0 0 15 10 0 30 0 100
C 10 25 15 20 0 0 5 0 5 20 100
D 5 20 17 15 33 10 0 0 0 0 100
E 5 18 20 7 20 30 0 0 0 0 100
Total point 35 78 82 52 53 55 15 25 65 40 500

Table 4 Order of risks according to its Computer software helps much to success of the simulation
importance. process and achieve good results for the project.
Number of points Risk Sequence
7. Risk response strategies
82 Risk 3 1
78 Risk 2 2
65 Risk 9 3 {There are several well-known and proven strategies to
55 Risk 6 4 respond to risk, it should be sure to choose the right ones to
53 Risk 5 5 confront risk based on the type of this risk and the circum-
52 Risk 4 6 stances surrounding the project}.
40 Risk 10 7 {The most important of these common strategies to con-
35 Risk 1 8
front the risks are}: [11,9,5].
25 Risk 8 9
15 Risk 7 10
7.1. Risk avoidance strategy

6.2.2. Decision tree This strategy is based on changing the project plan to eliminate
Decision Tree is one of approved graphical methods of quan- risk, or to unwanted circumstance or to protect the objectives
titative analysis of a risk, it contains decision points and nor- of the project from its effects. Of course, not all risks can be
mal cases points, Decision points represent options or avoided or removed them, but some risks have proven experi-
available strategies, while normal cases points represent the ence in many of projects could be avoided.
external conditions that can occur. Some risks may arise at the beginning of implementation of
The value of each branch of the decision tree can be calcu- project, so it would be easy to deal with it, this may be by one
lated, the right decision are making based on these of the following means:
calculations.
We can explain this method by the example following (see 7.1.1. More clarify for requirements and supplies related to the
Fig. 4). project.
After subtracting the cost from the profit for both options,
the decision will be updated the current factory because expected 7.1.2. Obtaining additional information.
profits will be 49 thousand units in cash while the new factory
building will lead to a profit equal 41.5 thousand units in cash. 7.1.3. Improve communications.

6.2.3. Simulation 7.1.4. Contracting with specialist.

It is an important scientific method, which translates diag-
nosed uncertainty cases in parts of project in detail trying to 7.1.5. Reduce scope of the project to avoid high-risk activities.
be circulated to the entire project.
One of the main methods used is Monte – Carlo method. 7.1.6. Adding resources or time.

7.1.7. Adopt known execution methods instead of adopting

Table 5 Triple-An assessment of the project.
innovative methods.

Assessment Work item (stage) 7.1.8. Not to deal with subcontractors who lack previous
High Most probability Low experience.
10 6 4 Design
35 20 16 Building
23 15 11 Testing and 7.2. Risk transference
commissioning
41 Total Risk Transference means transforming consequences of risk to
a third party; this means transforming the responsibility of risk

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8 A.M. Keshk et al.

Fig. 3 Estimate probability of completion of a project at a certain cost [2].

Fig. 4 Example of decision tree diagram.

management to others without removing it or avoid it. This is 7.4. Risk acceptance
common in the financial obligations, project contractor will
bear the financial burden in exchange for transferring of con- This strategy is meant not to change the project plan to deal
sequences burden or risk results to another party, he has with risk, or the management is unable to diagnose or adopt
resorted to use of insurance services or giving guarantees or any other strategy.
other means, For example, a project contractor can consistent The effective acceptance of risk includes the development of
fixed price for materials or other with suppliers, as such he plan ‘‘contingency plan”, while ‘‘passive acceptance” means to
transfers the risk managing responsibility of prices volatility take no action and leave the team in the project dealing with
to the suppliers, or prior agreements with customers or benefi- the risk by themselves. The development of Contingency plan
ciaries of the project to re-estimate the cost in the event of a leads to diagnose risks, therefore it has a good effect on reduc-
rise in prices, or others of future events. ing the cost of actions to be taken if the won risk. When risk
gets and has significant effects, ‘‘fallback plan” is being devel-
7.3. Risk mitigation oped to confront this great risk, when the chosen strategy is
not fully effective, perhaps a clearer example for this is alloca-
The goal of this strategy is to mitigate or reduce probability or tion of backup resources or development alternatives for
consequences of a particular risk to an acceptable level, to take implementation be ready in case of risk, including changing
some of the procedures that minimize the potential for risk bet- project scope.
ter than to take actions to treatment the effects or conse-
quences of that risk, Examples of actions taken before start 8. Conclusions
of the implementation of projects or during execution are
Engineering or seismic tests or the selection of suitable and This paper deals with - also suggests the following pages – a
known suppliers with their credibility, these measures may vital topic in the management and planning of projects, it is
include changing the conditions to minimize potential for risk, a risk of all different types, which is gaining its importance
such as adding resources or time to activities of the project. of consequences that can result from its occurrence, the conse-

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Introduction to management of construction project risks 9

quent of these consequences of these negative effects on the 8.5. Conscious careful planning which leads to risk manage
objectives of the project Both on cost or delivery time or extra plan in project, is the basic for success of work team
effort And accompanied by other problems. to overcome risks, so, previous experience of other smel-
At the beginning of the search was to focus on the meaning lier projects and Assisted of experts of various disci-
of the concept of the project and the project management and plines may be ordered instrumental in success of
the importance of their studies, after that it has been reviewed management by diagnosis risks, their Combat and
concept of risk and its sources and how to plan it?, how to reduce of their impact.
diagnose and measure quantitatively and qualitatively? Risks
of different types when they are diagnosed, the basic goal
behind this is to identify appropriate strategies to confront References
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Please cite this article in press as: A.M. Keshk et al., Special studies in management of construction project risks, risk concept, plan building, risk quantitative and
qualitative analysis, risk response strategies, Alexandria Eng. J. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2017.12.003